MILWAUKEE BREWERS

‘09 Record: 80-82, 3rd in NL Central
Pythagorean Record: 78-84 W-L (+2)
Current PECOTA Projection: 77-85 (Tied 3rd in NL Central)

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2009 Review

On July 1, the first-place Crew seemed ready to give Milwaukee their first back-to-back playoff appearances since the 1981-2 teams that included Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, Cecil Cooper, Pete Vuckovich, and Rollie Fingers. After all, this version of the Brewers had Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Yovani Gallardo, and Trevor Hoffman.

If you’re sensing a few missing pieces in the newer team, you’re right. The only other Brewer to register an OPS over .800 in at least 100 games was rookie Casey McGehee, who hit .310/.360/.499 in 394 PAs. Rickie Weeks went down — again — to a wrist injury, Corey Hart disappointed — again — with a .260/.335/.418 line and a month lost to appendicitis, while J.J. Hardy was so awful that he found himself back — again — in AAA.

Hoffman’s 1.83 ERA and 0.91 WHIP were awesome, but he had only 37 saves, due to his strained ribcage and the failure of the starters to deliver the bullpen a lead. Gallardo’s 3.73 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 34.7 VORP led the rotation, but no other starter had a positive VORP. Milwaukee’s rotation was the worst in MLB in ERA (5.37) and SNLVAR (8.0), thanks to awful seasons from Braden Looper (5.22 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, -5.6 VORP), Manny Parra (6.36 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, -23.9 VORP), and Dave Bush (6.38 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, -14.8 VORP). The stinky cherry on this crap sundae was Jeff Suppan, paid $12.75M to deliver his third straight year of declining numbers (5.29 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, -8.2 VORP).

In the end, Milwaukee placed third in the NL and 9^th in MLB in scoring, but ranked second-worst in the NL and 5^th worst in MLB in run prevention. This combination dropped them from the to third in the NL Central, 11.0 games behind the Cardinals and 12.0 games behind Wild Card Colorado. Milwaukee would have to wait another year to return to the playoffs.

2010 Outlook

The core of the 2009 team returns, with changes in the middle of the defense and the starting rotation. New pitching coach Rick Peterson brings a biomechanical approach that analyzes deliveries to reduce injuries and improve performance. The rotation has two new arms, two others ready to take a step forward, while the offense features a new centerfielder, a new catcher, and one of the best young defensive shortstops in baseball.

If the Crew can add a healthy, productive starting rotation to a solid bullpen, while melding the new parts of their offense with the tried-and-true parts, they’ll easily be contenders. Whether that’s enough to climb to the top of the difficult — and improving — NL Central is the question all Crew fans want to know. Even if the answer is to again wait ‘til next year, this team should keep putting fannies in the seats and hope in the hearts of Milwaukee fans everywhere.

2010 Team

Catcher

The Brewers replaced the aging and unproductive Jason Kendall, who caught 285 games in the past two seasons, with the aging but productive Gregg Zaun, who caught 286 games in the past three seasons. That durability will be a concern, as well as Zaun’s game-calling ability, but his offensive skills should more than compensate, as his OPS was 130 points higher than Kendall’s in 2009.

Milwaukee has young catchers galore behind him: prospects Angel Salome and Jonathan Lucroy are nearly ready, competing with waiver-claim George Kottaras who is also jockeying to split time with Zaun. Unless the Crew carries three catchers, Salome should emerge as the primary backup; Milwaukee doesn’t want to send both him and Lucroy back to AAA for further development.

Infield

The infield faces plenty of tests in 2010. With J.J. Hardy gone, Alcides Escobar will get to show that he’s the best Venezuelan shortstop since Omar Vizquel. More than just a flashy glove, Escobar brings an 84% contact rate and speed to the plate, which will eventually make him their lead-off hitter. Until that happens, Rickie Weeks will hit first, trying to finally realize his power-speed promise while recovering from his second wrist surgery. If Casey McGehee can’t prove that his 2009 season was legit, prized prospect Mat Gamel will get to prove he can overcome the deficits of both his glove at third base and a 22% minor-league strikeout rate that ballooned to 37% in MLB. Prince Fielder remains the anchor at first, as shown by a .299./412/.602 line in 2009 that included 141 RBIs, best in baseball, and 46 HRs, second only to Albert Pujols.

Outfield

Ryan Braun, the team’s outfield anchor, led the NL in hits in 2009, en route to a .320/.386/.551 season in which he dropped his K% and raised his BB% for the third straight season. Carlos Gomez should equal or surpass Mike Cameron’s declining defense in center field, but he can’t fill Cammy’s power-hitting shoes and has been working on leveraging his speed by hitting ground balls. Corey Hart, a secondary player who must produce in right field for Milwaukee to contend, showed Brewers fans more glimpses of his hitting abilities before an appendectomy effectively ended his 2009 season.

Bench

Jody Gerut and Jim Edmonds are battling for the utility outfield slot, where the versatile Joe Inglett could also stick; Gerut needs to rebound from a subpar 2009 to make carrying his glove worthwhile. Craig Counsell remains one of the most valuable bench players in baseball, and should be joined by Gamel, whose potent bat will force Macha to find ways to get him in the field or send him to AAA for more consistent playing time.

Starting Rotation

Milwaukee’s starting five will be more impressive and lefty-heavy after off-season retooling. LHP Randy Wolf turned his best (and healthiest) season in years into a two-year deal and will follow RHP Yovani Gallardo in the rotation. They provide 1-2 strikeout punch, though there’s still a sharp drop-off to the dependably healthy but woefully average LHP Doug Davis and RHP Jeff Suppan, who would consider a Davis-like season a huge accomplishment. Suppan could lose his rotation spot if both Dave Bush and Manny Parra shine, though they’re more likely to duke it out for the #5 spot.

Bullpen

The bullpen should be an area of stability for Milwaukee in 2010. Closer Trevor Hoffman will be solid, even if repeating 2009’s ratios might be a stretch. Sprinting out to the mound made Todd Coffey a fan favorite, but he could share set-up duties — or lose them entirely — to newcomer and LaTroy Hawkins; either could replace Hoffman if he gets hurt. Other standouts include swingman Claudio Vargas and lefty specialist Mitch Stetter, who retired an MLB-record 15 straight batters via strikeout in 2009.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE MILWAUKEE BREWERS…

Breakthrough Performance…

Dave Bush

Bush started to put things together in 2009 before a line drive to his forearm reversed all his gains. That injury’s gone, he’s looked very good in Spring Training, and should emerge as a very good back-of-the-rotation hurler in 2010.

Ready to Rebound…

Rickie Weeks

Last year’s hot start was more luck than skill, but he knows how to come back from wrist injuries, and now wants to prove himself more than ever.

Ready to Disappoint…

Gregg Zaun

38 years old and playing in the NL for the first time since 2003, he won’t be as bad as Jason Kendall, but he’s still not the reliable backstop Milwaukee needs.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Ken Macha bats the pitcher eighth, with either Escobar or Gomez batting ninth.

Be Shocked If…

Jeff Suppan registers an ERA below 4.50 or a WHIP under 1.50, something he’s never done in his three-year Milwaukee tenure.

Rock Steady…

Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder

They remain essential to the team’s success, personifying the youthful exuberance and consistent production that could lead Milwaukee to the Promised Land of the Postseason.

Achilles Heel…

Righty/Lefty Balance

Among rotation arms, Davis, Wolf, Bush, and Parra are all lefties, while Angel Salome is the only likely RHB on the bench. On the other hand, four of the top five projected hitters—Weeks, McGehee, Braun, and Hart—are all righties. This will reduce Macha’s options in building a roster and lineup and will make the starters vulnerable to righty-heavy teams.

In the Next Three Years…

2012 looms as the free-agency year for Fielder, Hart, and Weeks; the latter two need to show that they can remain productive and healthy (respectively) to earn their keep, while Fielder clearly has. Whether there’s enough money in the piggy bank for Fielder at the end of this season remains to be seen. If they can lock up Fielder along with a productive Weeks and Hart, they need only bolster their pitching rotation further to ensure competitiveness in the future.

Making Sausage of Opposing Catchers…

The sausage race path takes it past the visitor’s dugouts, and at least two catchers (the Rockies’ Paul Phillips and the Reds’ Jason LaRue) have nearly been run down as they tried to make their way onto the field. Next time they ought to aim for someone who might actually do some damage to the Brewers.

We always root for Frankie Furter here at BDD. It’s unlikely if you are looking forward to tomorrow’s preview that you root for anything to do with the Brew Crew, though, since we’ll explore the Chicago Cubs. Winless in Wrigleyville was the theme again in ‘09 and many expect that to continue when it comes to championships and Chicago in ‘10. Rob McQuown weighs in with his preview of the Cubs on Tuesday… until then, check out our other previews:

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Washington Nationals
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Chicago White Sox

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

‘09 Record: 79-83, 3rd in AL Central
Pythagorean Record: 80-82 (-1 Differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 84-78 (Tied 1st, AL Central)
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2009 Review

“I not only have to answer to (chairman) Jerry Reinsdorf and our fans,” White Sox general manager Kenny Williams says, “but answer to the president of the United States. If we don’t win, I know I’m going to have him on (me), too.” (USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2009-04-05-obama-white-sox_N.htm) Williams also pronounced the Yankees as the AL’s best team in January (2009), though he received Internet-wide razzing for quotes about being disappointed in September as the Sox had fallen out of the race.

Remembering the glory of the 2005 season, it was natural for all Soxdom, from The President to the team’s GM to the fans who want more players that can bunt, to expect a better outcome based on the way the plot had evolved by August. After beating the Angels for the 2nd straight time on August 5, Chicago was just 1 measly game out of first place in the weak Central Division, had just acquired one of the NL’s best pitchers (Peavy), and saw a solution to their void in center field in the form of Alexis Rios. Further, the climax of the story seemed to be forthcoming, as the immediate schedule included 1 more against Los Angeles and then 15 straight against the worst teams in the AL.

Instead of the expected “feel good” ending, the script included a shocking twist as the Sox went 7-9 in those 16 games before entering a gauntlet of 9 straight road games against New York, Boston, and Minnesota. Worse, Peavy’s return date was pushed back by a fluky injury in a minor-league game, and it was tempting to “Blame it on Rios,” as the tantalizingly athletic outfielder made his hitting struggles in Toronto look like a hot streak compared to his ineptitude on the South Side. By the end, Williams faced reality, voiced his disappointment, and sent Thome and Contreras to contenders in what amounted to “thank you for your services” trades to two classy ex-White Sox. As such, thoughts had already turned to 2010 even while the team was theoretically in the race in mid-September.

2010 Outlook

Peavy. Buehrle. Danks. Floyd. Hudson. Garcia.  While history isn’t likely to compare this rotation to Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz-Avery anytime soon, the Sox already had a trio of excellent 120 ERA+ types, added Cy Young winner Peavy and talented youngster Hudson.  If healthy, the 2010 White Sox arguably have the game’s best rotation. The average fans may not be able to distinguish it as such, given the ballpark and the expected offensive struggles, but opposing managers will be well aware of the relentless nature of this strong and deep rotation. The starters will be well-supported by a solid and deep bullpen again in 2010, so the overall pitching should be fantastic.

Offensively and defensively, the team is founded on some moves which seem, at times, to be more like wishcasting than solid GM strategy, but Kenny Williams has certainly earned the benefit of the doubt. The mantra has been more “small ball” and defense this season, but the two top steals guys are gone from 2009, and lots of players are learning (or re-acquainting themselves with) new positions, so the defensive benefit is questionable.  Still, Juan Pierre, despite his noodle arm, fits the “new mold” to a “T” as he’s a rangy outfielder who embodies the “small ball” approach to the game.

The lineup will be expected to function without a high-OBP leadoff hitter, with Pierre’s ability to create havoc on the basepaths tempering this shortcoming somewhat. He’s posted a .334 OBP since 2005, which amounts to 20 fewer official times on base(*) than a .360 OBP would have. He won’t make up those 20 times on base with his legs, but it’s not like the White Sox have any better options. The rest of the lineup is somewhat indistinguishable and Ozzie is likely to shuffle them often, though high-injury-risk Carlos Quentin should be the primary power source.

(*) OBP doesn’t include times reached on errors, and Pierre can be expected to add a couple more of these over a typical player in a season.

Viewers of “The Club” on MLB Network will get to experience Ozzie’s colorful personality as he deals with these changes and challenges of a season which became more promising after the injury to Joe Nathan of the rival Twins. Expect Kenny Williams to trade to address needs if the team is still contending in July.

Great pitching will keep the team in a lot of games, so things like “clutch hitting” and “one run tactics” that make Sabermetricians groan will have a lot more sway on the team’s final win total than on a typical team. The most likely scenario sees the team just above the .500 mark on July 31, and, if the Twins haven’t run away with the division, Williams will make moves to address things which aren’t working.

2010 Team

Catcher

A.J. Pierzynski had his best offensive season since he was 26 and called the Metrodome “home”. Yet he wasn’t happy about failing to drive in 50 runs. He’s likely to be even less happy if Tyler Flowers is able to stay at catcher, since A.J.’s contract is up after the season, and he’ll be sending out resumes. Ramon Castro remains a starting-caliber catcher relegated to backup duty, though he’s been shown to break down if given too much playing time.

Infield

What fun would there be on the South Side without the annual game of “Musical Infielders?”  In 2009, Alexei Ramirez grabbed the shortstop chair and was surprisingly good on defense despite taking 4 years off from the position. He’s a league-average offensive player, with just enough batting average and power and speed to offset the low walk totals. His fielding percentage was league-average and should improve with experience.

Chris Getz lost his seat and was demoted to Kansas City. Superstar-to-be Gordon Beckham takes over at second base and will do his best to continue eliciting Ryne Sandberg comparisons. His ability to adapt at the plate allows him to bring the complete array of hitting skills with a consistency that usually takes years to develop. On defense, he’s an unknown, but the scouting reports indicate that while his range will be sub-par, he should quickly become a steady, reliable defender at the Keystone.

Mark Teahen hit .290/.357/.517, slamming 46 extra-base hits and stealing 10 bases in 393 AB. He was easily the Royals best hitter, and was a proud member of the 2002 “Moneyball” draft class from Oakland. Unfortunately for Teahen,  that was four years ago. Since then, he’s bounced around the diamond, and seemingly left part of his bat at each stop. According to fangraphs.com, Teahen was the 11th-worst “qualified” position player in all MLB in 2009, producing a total of $1.2 million for the Royals; and 2008 had been even worse at -$300,000. Hit charts indicate that US Cellular field will help in 2010, though he’s more of a doubles hitter than home run threat.

If the rest of the infield is moving to the music, first baseman Paul Konerko is the D.J. — always in the same place and keeping the hits coming. He’s nearing the end, but should be good for one more show at least.

Outfield

Carlos Quentin was an MVP contender in 2008 before he injured himself. His 2009 season was all but washed out due to plantar fasciatis. He’ll be shifting to right field this year, and his unstable health could end up making or breaking the Sox season, as he and Beckham are the only two above-average (for their position) hitters  on the team.

Thus ends the similarities between the ‘09 and ‘10 White Sox outfields.

The Sox eliminated UZR sinkhole Jermaine Dye, the 6th-least-valuable regular position player in MLB last year (per WAR), but are facing a full season from the #7 guy on that list, Alexis Rios. Juan Pierre got out of UZR hell by shifting to left field, but hasn’t been anyone’s idea of a good starting position player for years. And Andruw Jones hit .165/.292/.298 from July 9 through the end of 2009. Mark Kotsay is the other new face, and will back up in left and right when he’s not DH’ing.

At least the again-mobile Jones looks impressive in spring training, dredging up memories of the Hall-bound Braves slugger and reminding people that, at 33, he could still have several good seasons. Likewise, Rios appears to be motivated to shake off his horrendous performance from last year. Pierre, Rios, and Quentin will play almost every inning (health permitting), so any playing time Jones earns will come at the expense of Kotsay.

Designated Hitter

In Chicago, much has been made of the team’s lack of a full-time DH, especially when Jim Thome was allowed to sign with “The Enemy”. Ozzie Guillen has made a career of doing whacky things, both on the field and during interviews. But he’s not going to follow through with his plans to use Omar Vizquel at DH. Not going to happen. The team has wisely left a spot open at the major league level (this vacancy could be called “Mark Kotsay” for short), so that when Tyler Flowers has finished subduing the minor leagues, he won’t be blocked.

Bench

Kotsay will back up Konerko when he’s not DH-ing or playing the outfield, Jayson Nix will backup Beckham and should play third against some tough left lefties. Ageless wonder Omar Vizquel can amazingly still play the field like a much younger man, and hits better than most pitchers.

Starting Rotation

The White Sox may have the best rotation among all 30 teams. Some random facts: Jake Peavy has struck out 9.0 batters/9 innings. He’s allowed 2.9 walks/9 innings. He’s 4th in ERA among active starting pitchers with 1000 or more innings (Pedro Martinez 2.93, Johan Santana 3.12, Roy Oswalt 3.23, and Peavy 3.26). He’s won a Cy Young Award. He has twice led the league in strikeouts. He has twice led the league in ERA. He has led the league in WHIP. He has led the league in Wins. His career tERA (fangraphs.com) is 3.36. His one weakness is that he doesn’t pay much attention to baserunners, a problem which will be magnified with Pierzynski catching.

The incumbants aren’t bad, either. Mark Buehrle has thrown 2 no-hitters, one being a perfect game. He’s the best pitcher in baseball at suppressing the running game, allowing just 40 steals in his career, while racking up 125 outs despite playing for years with popgun-armed A.J. Pierzynski. He’s 10th among all (1000+ IP) active starting pitchers in ERA+, besting even CC Sabathia (11th) and new teammate Peavy (12th). He’s pitched 200+ innings in all of his 10 full seasons in the majors, as well, twice leading the league in innings pitched and twice in games started. John Danks and Gavin Floyd don’t have the resumes yet, but Danks has been smart to accept tutelage from Buehrle, enabling him to post an amazing two-year ERA+ score of 130 since coming to Chicago. While Floyd is clearly 4th-best on this staff, he’d arguably be the ace on some teams. His ERA+ has been 117 the past two years.

Freddy Garcia has a 4.08 career ERA and a 111 ERA+, though he’s been essentially league-average (102 ERA+) after starting his career with 3 very good seasons in 1999-2001. If he can even approach “average”, the Sox won’t mind. He’s only keeping a spot warm for the most meteoric pitcher of 2009 — Daniel Hudson — whose quick ascent enabled him to pitch at five different levels in 2009. Hudson was expected to be a first-round pick out of Old Dominion, but his senior year saw a decrease in velocity and effectiveness, and the Sox were able to draft a front-of-the-rotation talent in the 5th round in 2008.

Bullpen

Scott Linebrink has been a colossal bust, really, after several good years pitching in Petco. Kenny Williams isn’t one to live in the past, and brought in former M’s closer J.J. Putz to set up Bobby Jenks, along with one of the game’s best lefties in Matt Thornton. Linebrink is still around, as is Tony Pena, who effectively moves up into the spot Dotel had last year. The most interesting story of the spring is Sergio Santos, who is showing signs of having harnessed his monster fastball and could make the team as the final reliever since he’s out of options. Considering that he was a shortstop until a year ago, his growth as a pitcher borders on miraculous.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE CHICAGO WHITE SOX…

Breakthrough Performance…

Ozzie Guillen

Starring in “The Club”, and socially networking with Twitter, 2010 is essentially Ozzie’s “audition tape”.  Anyone who’s heard Ozzie Guillen speak realizes that it’s only a matter of time before he says something which gets him banned from managing baseball games, but he’s a natural for the Silver Screen.  None of the players are poised to take a big leap, though Gordon will continue to pile on to his 2009 success.

Ready to Rebound…

Andruw Jones

In 6000 plate appearances from ages 21-29, Jones’s stat line was .270/.346/.513 and he hit 319 HR while playing Gold Glove center field.  It’s not clear why he took the past three seasons off, but he’s reported to work this year, and with that much talent, his effort will be leveraged into a nice comeback season.

Ready to Disappoint…

Mark Teahen and Juan Pierre

It’s not clear why Kenny Williams decided to acquire a player who hits like Chris Getz and plays left field (Juan Pierre) and trade the real Chris Getz for the pricier Mark Teahen instead of just using the money given to both Teahen and Pierre and hiring a left fielder who could hit.  But that’s what he did, and the fans will turn on these two for not living up to their billings.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Kenny Williams trades away some of the shallow farm system in July to plug whatever holes have emerged.

Be Shocked If…

Flowers remains at catcher.  While it’s great to have a catcher who can hit like Mike Napoli, few teams have the organizational depth to pull it off, and the White Sox are not such a team.  They will realize that Konerko is nearing the end, and will play Flowers at a position where he can contribute 650 PA/season instead of under 500.

Rock Steady…

Mark Buehrle

Never finishing better than 3rd on the AL leaderboard for ERA, and rarely cracking the top 10, it’s a testament to Buehrle’s consistency that he’s among the active ERA+ leaders.

Achilles Heel…

Offense

The Sox finished in the bottom five in all 3 major rate statistics (AVG, OBP, SLG) – and that with a full year of Dye and most of one from Thome.  Other than Quentin, they have nobody who gets on base via walks and HBP very often.  Besides Pierre, they don’t have players who will substantially raise the team batting average.  And only Quentin is a front-line power threat, in a park which rewards hitting deep flies.

In the Next Three Years…

Unless another fire hits Chicago, there won’t be any change in plans for Kenny Williams.  The shakeups in the scouting and player development departments in 2007-2008 has led to improved  talent acquisition – but young talent is just the coin of the realm for Williams.  Expect surprising moves annually, as he continues the system of building a team to compete – not dominate – and then makes in-season moves to address anything not going according to plans.

Call Your Sons, Call Your Daughters…

Sometimes a “homer” announcer like Hawk Harrelson is just right for the moment, and Mark Buehrle’s “Performance of the Year” perfect game, capped by a homer-saving catch by Dwayne Wise, was one such time.

You can put it on the board! YES! This preview… is ovah! Tomorrow BDD heads to ol’ Milwaukee for Michael Street’s Brewers preview. Until then, there’s plenty of reading material about the upcoming sesason available at BDD:

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Washington Nationals
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Oakland Athletics
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Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds

‘09 Record: 78-84, 4th in NL Central
Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (-2 differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 77-85 (3rd in NL Central)

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2009 Review

 Like many campaigns in recent seasons, unrealistic expectations placed on youngsters combined with diminished productivity from veterans set the stage for a season which seemed out of reach by the All Star break.

With Jay Bruce doing his best Rob Deer impersonation before breaking his wrist against the Mets (although he did look a lot better upon returning from the DL), and the front end of the rotation not performing consistently, Cincinnati’s 2009 season differentiated from the established norm very little. The 6-8 slots in the lineup often featured zero players with batting averages above .225, which spelled nearly certain doom once the Reds fell behind in the early innings.

While not trying to paint too bleak a picture, it is impossible to ignore the lack of production from the bottom half of the lineup. It really enabled opposing teams to coast to victory once a multiple-run lead was gained.

2010 Outlook

While the current roster make-up still has obvious holes, others have been plugged. The acquisition of Orlando Cabrera relegates Paul Janish back to utility duty, which is a good thing. One can only hope Cabrera doesn’t stumble out of the gate and turn into the 2010 version of Corey Patterson or Willy Taveras. Aroldis Chapman fever may solidify the back end of the rotation, and keep the fifth spot from being the revolving door it has been in years past. If Joey Votto can stay on the field, Brandon Phillips gets a little more selective at the plate, and Drew Stubbs plays to the level he did in 2009, Cincinnati should at least be able to compete in meaningful games deeper into the season.

They are many analysts’ dark horse team to contend in 2010… but such was the case in 2009… and 2008. Best case scenario? Cincinnati remains in the hunt for the Wild Card. A point will come when ownership must decide if this is the time to trade away one of the many young talents the team has to bring aboard a masher or reliable starter to keep the team in contention. We shall see.

2010 Team

Catcher

Ramon Hernandez’s health is of paramount concern to the Reds. While Ryan Hanigan looked very good early on in the season, his production tapered as he had to shoulder more of the load following Hernandez’s knee injury. The Reds don’t need spectacular production from the catching position to compete; they just can’t have Craig Tatum, Corky Miller, or David Ross hitting a buck-ninety and expect to have much of a shot.

Infield

Joey Votto is on the verge of exploding into the next Larry Walker… if he can stay on the field. Brandon Phillips’ supreme talent is only matched by his nonchalance. Phillips needs to take walks, runs balls out (as he forgot to a few times last year), and lead by example in the club house. Whatever Orlando Cabrera gives the team has got to be better than what Paul Janish did last year. While he is great defensively, it is hard to carry a .211 average day in and day out at that position. While Scott Rolen isn’t getting any younger, if he is healthy he should be able to produce decently… and not make routine one-hoppers a circus adventure like his predecessor Edwin Encarnacion did.

Young pitchers need infield defense to keep them calm. Rolen should be that guy (if nothing else). In a park as unfriendly to pitchers as Great American Ball Park, infield outs must be made regularly. When they are not, the softball game-like scores you often see on the ticker are born.

Outfield

Jonny Gomes figures to get most of the playing time in left field, and it will be interesting to see if his impressive power numbers from last year (20 HRs in 281 ABs) extend into full-time duty. While it could have been how awful an outfielder Taveras was before Drew Stubbs started playing center field for the Reds last year, it also could be that the speedy Stubbs has a glove to match his impressive rookie campaign. If not, Chris Dickerson waits in the wings. Jay Bruce will patrol right field, and if he can reduce his strikeout total by even 20, it would go a long way toward helping the Reds be a competitive team.

Bench

Aaron Miles, Paul Janish, Chris Dickerson, Drew Sutton. There you have it. Not to simplify too much, but the Reds’ bench production is not going to play a telling role in the team’s success or failure. The team’s fate is tied directly to the level of production from their starters, and if that level isn’t high enough it really won’t matter much how the reserves fare.

Starting Rotation

Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Johnny Cueto need to find a middle ground between stellar outings and not making it through 4 innings. If Dusty Baker doesn’t let Homer Bailey pitch until his arm blows up, Bailey should have the breakout year we’ve been hearing about for so long. The fifth spot appears to be Aroldis Chapman’s… and I’m not very excited about what will happen if Matt Maloney or Justin Lehr is given it for the long haul.

Bullpen

Nick Masset, Arthur Rhodes, Daniel Ray Herrera and All-Star closer Francisco Cordero highlighted one of the few positional bright spots for the club last season. Carlos Fisher also shows promise. Like the team in general, they still remain a huge question mark. Mike Lincoln and Jared Burton scare me.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE CINCINNATI REDS…

Breakthrough Performance…

Drew Stubbs

I think he will still strike out a lot, but his rare combination of speed and power prime him to be the Red whose performance raises the most eyebrows.

Ready to Rebound…

Bronson Arroyo

His numbers weren’t terrible last year, but if he can level himself out, and continue offering up quality starts I believe he can really put the rotation on his back.

Ready to Disappoint…

Orlando Cabrera

Perhaps the expectations placed on him will be more of a factor in this outcome than his production…but the team absolutely needs him to produce at a level he may not be capable of.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Aroldis Chapman is brought up too early, and gets sent back down. This could be a repeat in the mismanagement of young talent which has become an unfortunate hallmark of Reds player development.

Be Shocked If…

Ramon Hernandez stays healthy and produces all year. Continuing in the trend of acquiring guys who have had good seasons, this choice as starting catcher could snakebite the squad if he is hobbled as often as he was last year.

Rock Steady…

Scott Rolen

As a sort of de facto team leader, he is expected to be the rock, and I expect him to be.

Achilles Heel…

Management

Letting Homer Bailey throw more than a hundred pitches in many meaningless outings in September last year provided a glimpse into Baker’s penchant for blowing up young pitchers’ arms. Hopefully he softens up a bit this year… but don’t count on it.

In the Next Three Years…

We will see if the young talent the Reds’ rebuilding plan centered around are still in Cincinnati. It all depends on what trades are made, and which aren’t come July. Building around a young nucleus is one thing, but realizing trading for veteran talent is a necessity, and doing so responsibly will have the most impact on the club’s near future.

Goosebumps Moment…

It’s after the All Star break. GABP isn’t quiet. The stands are nearly full, and long-starved Cincinnatians are rooting their team on as they hang around toward September. It seems like a pipe dream given the climate of the team’s recent performance, but if it does happen there is no Major League city in America more ready to support it.

We know that tomorrow is Selection Sunday but the office pool can wait until Monday. Instead, come back to BDD to check out the Chicago White Sox preview by BDD’s Rob McQuown. It’ll include a cameo appearance from HEATER Magazine’s Rob McQuown who will provide playing time projections. Wait a second! They’re the same guy? Without proof, we’ll let you decide if they are one in the same after checking out our next offering and be sure to not miss all of the other great previews we’ve done so far.

Previous Previews
Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Baltimore Orioles
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets
Houston Astros
Toronto Blue Jays
Oakland Athletics
San Diego Padres

Twins GM Bill Smith told the AP:

We’ve seen [Span] grow from the rookie league, step by step through the minor leagues and he’s in the process of fulfilling all of those expectations, all of those projections that our scouts made on him when he was in high school.

Indeed, Span has progressively improved his game over the years. The 2002 first-round pick posted a cumulative .287/.357/.358 line in the minor leagues, walking in 8.8 percent of his plate appearances and striking out 17 percent. The 6-0, 205 pound lefty batter showed precious little pop, with a .071 Isolated Power.

Back in 2005, Baseball America described Span as a “potential game-changer on the bases,” with wheels that “enabl[e] him to outrun mistakes.” Despite that praise, the Florida prep product swiped bases as a paltry 66.1 percent clip. Span’s defense rated pretty well according to Sean Smith’s Total Zone, but BA mentioned in 2006 that “he sometimes has to rely on his quickness to make up for mistakes on routes in center field.”

He certainly didn’t lack talent, but there was a feeling that Span just wasn’t getting the most out of his skill-set. “Tools aren’t Span’s problem,” Baseball America quipped in 2007. “Putting those tools to use are.”

Since making his big league debut in 2008, Span has learned how to use those tools , hammering away at that underachiever label (he credits LASIK surgery, which improved his eyesight). In 1,087 plate appearances over the past two seasons, Span has hit .305/.390/.422 while showing unprecedented secondary skills. He has drawn ball four 11 percent of the time, posting a .117 ISO. It’s not like Span has emerged as a hulking slugger, but he has assuaged concerns that he’d get the bat knocked out of his hands at the highest level.

Span’s plate discipline has been superb. When an opposing pitcher tosses a junk ball off the plate, Span rarely indulges: his outside swing rate in the majors is 17.7 percent, compared to the 25 percent major league average. Over the last two seasons, Span has gone fishing out of the zone at the ninth-lowest rate among all hitters.

He rarely whiffs, either. Span has a 16.1 percent strikeout rate, with an 89.4 percent contact rate (80-81 percent MLB average). That’s the seventh-highest rate among big league batters over the 2008-2009 seasons.

Span has handled fastballs with aplomb (+0.72 runs above average per 100 seen), a good thing considering pitchers have brought the heat nearly 67 percent of the time against him (the fourth-highest rate in the majors since 2008). But he does serious damage when a hurler throws something that bends: he has a +2.64 run/100 pitch value against sliders, and a +2.53 mark versus curveballs (the second and ninth-best best rates in the bigs, respectively).

On the base paths, Span has also shown some improvement. He has nabbed 41 bases in 58 attempts, a 70.7 percent success rate. That’s still not especially good: according to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Stolen Base Runs metric, Span has actually cost the Twinkies about 2.3 runs with his base stealing over the past two years. However, he’s adept at other aspects of base running, such as taking the extra bag on hits and advancing on wild pitches and passed balls. In terms of overall Equivalent Base Runs, Span rated as +3.3 runs in 2008 and +1.6 in 2009.

Defensively, the long-time center fielder has split his time between the outfield corners and the middle garden. In the corners, Span has a +9.3 UZR/150 in 1,366.2 innings. In center, he has a -13.8 UZR/150 in 704 innings.

Given the sample size, it’s best not to make too much out of Span’s poor rating in center. Historically, the difference between a corner outfielder and a center fielder has been about 10 runs. In other words, corner outfielders playing center field have been about 10 runs worse per season in center than in the corners, while center fielders manning the corners have been about 10 runs better in the corners than in center field. Span figures to be about an average center fielder. Sean Smith’s Total Zone has Span as a +2.9 run defender in center next year.

Add up Span’s keen eye, contact ability, adequate power, base running advancement and solid D, and you have a three-plus win player now signed through his peak years. According to MLB.com’s Kelly Thesier, Span will make $750,000 in 2010, $1 million in 2011, $3 million in 2012, $4.75 million in 2013 and $6.5 million in 2014 (there’s a $500,000 buyout if the 2015 option isn’t picked up).

How good of a deal is this for the Twins? Let’s evaluate the three arbitration years specifically. For the sake of argument, say Span is a three-win player in 2012 and 2013 and declines to 2.5 WAR in 2014 (just rough estimates, taking into account some decline). Based on the MLB salary arbitration study I did last week, Span would be expected to earn 29 percent of his free agent value during his first year of arbitration, 49 percent during the second year of arbitration and 68 percent in his final year prior to free agency.

It’s hard to estimate baseball’s economic climate several years down the road, but let’s say that one WAR will cost $4.6M in 2012, $4.8M in 2013 and $5M in 2014. Using those assumptions, here’s how much Span’s production would be worth on the free agent market, how much he would be expected to earn via salary arbitration (using the 29 percent first-year/49 percent second-year/68 percent third-year free agent value figures), and how much Span will actually be paid during those seasons:

It’s not a staggering amount for the Twins, but more than $5 million saved compared to what Span would have likely gotten through salary arbitration is nothing to sneeze at. This looks like a winner for both sides: Minnesota locks up a quietly productive player at a discount, and Span gets to play ball knowing that he’s financially set for the rest of his life.

With a week plus of Spring Training games behind them, all four candidates for the fifth slot have had a chance to pitch, with only Chacin not getting a full work-load.

Innings pitching, Spring 2010 (through March 12) source

Morales  5.2
Hammel   5.0
Smith    5.0
Chacin   2.0

Chacin appears to have skipped a turn after his March 6 appearance. According to the Denver Post, Hammel will pitch March 13, Smith on March 14 and both Morales and Chacin on Monday, March 15.

After his first outing the Rockies’ pitching coach gave Chacin mixed grades:

He got the ground balls, but I was still disappointed in the plane and height of his pitches. If those pitches are knees and below, it’s a different swing. But because it was the thigh area and above, they’re putting a very aggressive swing on it.

Chacin is a ground ball pitcher, but Bob Apodaca sure doesn’t like the quality of contact he’s allowing. On that note, let’s run-down the stuff and background of the four men who will most likely make up the 5-8 slots of the extended Colorado rotation (allowing for injuries and such).

Jason Hammel

Calling Hammel the front-runner is probably an understatement. He may be his job to lose. Acquired from Tampa for Aneury Rodriguez, Hammel’s first season in the senior circuit included 30 starts and over 175 innings on the bump. The move suited him well, with all of his numbers improving from 2008 where he worked mostly in relief.

Hammel did walk about 4 batters per 9 IP in his first three seasons in the majors, so his drop all the way to 2.1 per 9 IP may have some rebound in it. On the other hand, he’s just turned 27 (debuted at 23) and is no longer in the AL East. And, after a dip to 5.1 in 2008, Hammel’s K per 9 IP returned to the 6.8 that came in 2007.

Hammel’s track record, even with his rough times in Tampa, shows he’s slightly above average in terms of his K:BB ratio and ground ball rate. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more grounders (46% in 2009) and only a small decay in his K:BB rate (3.17 in 2009).

Another thing working in Hammel’s favor is his stuff. It’s pretty electric, and he is armed with a superb curveball. He throws a mix of two- and four-seam fastballs (mostly four-seamers, I believe), typically in the 92-94 mph range. He has a pair of pitches in the mid-80s, a change-up that tumbles down and away from left-handed batters, and a nice biting slider. The curve has two-plane movement (breaking down and across) and is thrown in the mid- to upper-70s. And it’s as a good a curveball as Adam Wainwright’s (based on linear weights and run values). That makes it one of the two best in the game today.

Greg Smith

These profiles are in no particular order, I’m not putting Smith ahead (or behind) anyone. Like all three of the challengers to Hammel’s job, Smith would be content with a bullpen job. He just turned 26 this winter and is already the forgotten man in the trade that sent Matt Holiday to Oakland.

Smith may have projected as, and I don’t like the term, an inning eater. Now that he has some health concerns, he may need to find another calling card. His strike out rates have declined since leaving AA ball, and he doesn’t have nasty stuff to pin any upside hope to. His fastball topped out at 92 mph in 2008 (like Hammel, a mushy mix of two- and four-seamers), his curveball is pretty much a straight 12-to-6, and his slider looks flat in PITCHf/x.

Despite the unimpressive looks, Smith’s slider was his most effective pitch in 2008 (it’s in the way that you use it). His curveball, far and away, his worst. As good as Hammel’s yakker was in 2009, Smith’s was bad in 2008. And, to top it off, he’s a fly ball pitcher. Going from Oakland to Denver sure isn’t going to help him out any.

Jhoulys Chacin

The right-hander from Venezuela just turned 22, so he’s just getting started. A bunch of relief appearances and one start totaled 11 innings for Chacin in 2009, but he’s been putting up impressive numbers since his time in the Dominican Summer League as an 18-year old. 460 career Minor League innings, with only one appearance in relief, he’s posted a 2.47 ERA.

Chacin is still green, with just 14.1 innings in AAA — and rough ones at that. For whatever reason, Chacin’s control was left behind when he left AA. Noted above, his ground ball tendancies have stuck around. He consistently posted ground ball rates 20%-30% better than his league coming up, and he’s been on the young side at most levels. His K:BB has also been above average, but more along the order of 10% better. That doesn’t mean his AAA and MLB debuts were expected to include walk rates that started to approach one per inning, but we’ll just ignore those two dozen or so innings of pain. Maybe.

Like the whole gang of four, Chacin throws two types of fastballs. In his case, however, the two-seam sinkers are consistently distinct from the four-seam heaters (or far more so than his mates’). As a starter, high 80s is a good target for his sinker, and a bit over 90, around 91, would be a good four-seamer for Chacin. In his one start, he topped out at 93. He has a occasionally slow, always slurvey, slider with plenty of sweep. Along with his change-up, it made big leaguers catch air on more than 40% of their swings (small sample size warning!). That didn’t help him too much, since he had little idea where the strike zone was.

Franklin Morales

Morales reached the show in 2007, and made the post-season roster as a 21-year old.  After spending most of the season and a half in the minors, Morales was recalled in July of 2009 and found himself in the bullpen. When September rolled around, Morales spent some time closing, at one point converting six straight opportunities. Relief should still be viewed as his fall back role, the Rockies see him, and always have, as a starter.

After posting high strike out rates as a teenager in the lower minors, Morales continued to struggle with the free pass while his K rate declined. Cause for alarm? He was promoted to AAA before he turned 22. His second pass at Colorado Springs in 2009 saw his walk rate drop (still too high, > 4 per 9 IP) and his strike outs jump back up (> 8 per 9 IP). Granted, he only made eight starts in the Pacific Coast League last year, but the numbers merited a return to the National League.

There’s little doubt, no matter how loud you think the alarm is, Morales has left a trail of bases on balls behind him (data from Baseball Reference).

Year Level BB/9IP
2004  ROK   5.4
2005  A     4.5
2006  A+    5.2
2007  AA    4.2
2007  AAA   6.9
2007  MLB   3.2
2008  AAA   6.7
2008  MLB   6.0
2009  AAA   4.1
2009  MLB   5.2

Yea, that’s not too good. Another funky trend for Morales shows up in his ground ball rates (league relative) over the past three years. He’s gone from plain old average to an extreme fly ball pitcher. His numbers in AAA were relatively stable but never better than average.

Morales showed a decline in ground ball rates across all of his pitches (a low/mid 90s pair of fastballs, a low 80s change-up and a low 70s curveball) but I can’t help but wonder about his mix of four- and two-seam fastballs.  The flip side of the increase in fly balls has been more called strikes and more swinging strikes. He’s still a young pitcher, finding his style and role.

Watch this Space

Since all four subjects are working over the next 48 or so hours, I’ll avoid a “wrap-up” and weave that in with updates through Monday’s action. Then I’ll put a bow on it.

Update #1 – Hammel worked four innings on Saturday against the Brewers. He allowed two unearned runs on two hits. He struck out three and didn’t allow a walk.

Update #2 – Smith got his four innings in, gave up a bunch of hits. On Monday, Chacin worked the 6th and 7th innings against the Cubs, with Morales picking up the 9th.

Based on usage, it’s pretty clear the pecking order is Hammel, Smith and Chacin. Morales is looking even more bullpen-ish than before, and Chacin is probably going to find himself in the minors as a starter. Smith will probably join him, and they’ll both be on call for a spot start, if I were to venture a guess now.

Without getting too existential (Who are we, really?), I will tell you that Frasor closed some games for the Blue Jays last year when Scott Downs got injured. He was fairly successful, saving 11 games in 14 chances, and striking out 56 batters in 57.2 innings. He posted a 3.65 xFIP, and a 3.00 tERA. Frasor throws a 93 mph fastball, and a change-up with some tail on it. He also throws a slurvey breaking ball, which comes in as an above average pitch.

Frasor’s last couple of seasons have been strange. For easy comparison, let’s look at the past four years of Frasor’s career:

2006: 50 IP, 9.18 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, .302 BABIP, 4.33 xFIP, 42.7% GB
2007: 57 IP, 9.32 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, .302 BABIP, 3.80 xFIP, 45.5% GB
2008: 47.1 IP, 7.99 K/9, 6.08 BB/9, .259 BABIP, 4.89 xFIP, 38.3% GB
2009: 57.2 IP, 8.74 K/9, 2.50 BB/9, .268 BABIP, 3.65 xFIP, 38.2% GB

The biggest blip on the radar is Frasor’s walk rate in 2008. A pitcher’s walk rate doesn’t double for no reason, so what was the cause? I can honestly say that I’m stumped. However, he had a nice bounceback year in 2009 that is more in line with his career numbers, so I’d like to think he’s fixed whatever problem he had. His BABIP should rise closer to his career mark (.287), so his 2.50 ERA is likely to be a career high that he never reaches again.

The question that the Twins and Cubs have to ask themselves, “is he worth giving up prospects?” For the Twins, he’d likely get a good share of the closing duties, splitting some time with Jon Rauch. With the Cubs, he would start the season as the setup man but could move into the closers role if Marmol gets too wild, again. If I’m the Cubs or Twins, I’m not giving up much for Frasor. He’s no spring chicken, and will be a free agent after the season. If the Blue Jays ask for more than a C pitching prospect and another junk prospect, I’m sticking with the team I’ve got.

SAN DIEGO PADRES

‘09 Record: 75-87, 4th in NL West
Pythagorean Record: 67-95 (+8 differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 79-83 (5th in NL West)

———————-

2009 Review

It’s saying something when a team finishes 75-87 and still does better than most people thought they would. Coming off a 63-99 campaign a year earlier, expectations couldn’t have been much lower for the Padres.

Despite opening the season with a patchwork pitching staff filled with minor-league veterans and longshots coming back from injury, the Padres managed to break even through the first two months. Then summer brought a strong dose of reality. The team went 17-37 in June and July, leading to the promotion of several youngsters and the jettisoning of Jake Peavy’s contract.

From August 1 onward, the Padres played solid baseball. They went 33-25 over the season’s final two months, better than all National League teams except Colorado, St. Louis, and Atlanta. This flourish led to renewed optimism among fans, although such optimism must be tempered by the fact that the Padres outscored their opponents by exactly two runs over those 68 games.

Off the field, the transition from the John Moores ownership group to Jeff Moorad and company began. This is an ongoing process that will take years to complete, but the early returns – at least in terms of commitment to the fans – are encouraging.

2010 Outlook

Some people have interpreted the Padres’ strong finish in 2009 as a harbinger of things to come. Add renewed ownership involvement, and fans are feeling better about the Padres than they have in a while.

Even with the Padres’ initial success on moving into Petco Park (2004-2007), there was a sense among fans that the team wasn’t doing all it could for them. The new ownership group, led by Moorad and President and Chief Operating Officer Tom Garfinkel, has been saying and doing the right things to regain fan trust that somehow was lost under the old regime.

Meanwhile, although there is considerable young talent on this team, many of these players are still refining their skills at the highest level. There will be growing pains. Kids will make mistakes and be maddeningly inconsistent. This is fine; it is part of the process. The important thing is how they respond to their mistakes and inconsistency. Will coaches and veteran players be able to step in and guide them?

This is going to be learning season. The young players will learn more about themselves and what it means to be a big leaguer. The ownership group will learn more about its players (specifically, which ones will form the nucleus of the next contending Padres team) and its fans. The fans will learn that young players will drive you crazy and that no ownership group is perfect. With luck, they will learn a little patience as well, as these young players and this ownership group figure out how to make things work in San Diego.

2010 Team

Catcher

Nick Hundley returns as the starter. Hundley is a high-energy kid whose goal this year is to play more controlled and be as quiet as possible behind the dish for his pitchers. Padres bench coach Ted Simmons, who knows a thing or two about catching, suggests that it takes catchers about 450 games to get acclimated to the big leagues and is confident that Hundley is on the right track. Hundley won’t hit for much average, but he will turn on the occasional fastball that strays into his wheelhouse.

Infield

Adrian Gonzalez remains at first base for now. Speculation is rampant (check the Internet) that he’ll be moved to another team sooner rather than later. As long as he’s in San Diego, he’ll be the centerpiece of the Padres lineup. He is in his prime, and another 40 HR/100 BB season is not out of the question.

David Eckstein returns at second base, mainly because Matt Antonelli hasn’t yet proven to be the player the Padres thought he was when they drafted him. Eckstein doesn’t add much value on offense or defense, but for all the grief he gets for being “scrappy” or “gritty,” those qualities do matter on a team full of young players. I can’t prove this, of course, but that’s okay because you can’t disprove it.

With the departure of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chase Headley moves back to his natural position. Headley has held his own during his first two seasons despite looking lost in the outfield. With a return to the hot corner comes the promise (or hope) of better things. At age 26, Headley would seem to be a good candidate for a breakthrough performance.

Young shortstop Everth Cabrera looks to build on his surprise rookie campaign. Cabrera came over from the Rockies last year as a Rule V pick and hit .255/.342/.361 with 25 stolen bases as a 22-year-old making the jump from Low-A ball. Having played mostly second base in the minors (just 57 professional games at shortstop coming into 2009), Cabrera is still learning the finer points of his position. He has good on-base skills, great speed, and a great arm. There’s a lot to like, although his entire game may not come together right away.

Outfield

Mammoth (he’s down to 275 lbs.) left fielder Kyle Blanks gets to show what he can do over a full season. Blanks finished his rookie campaign tied for fifth on the Padres with 10 homers in just 172 plate appearances. A partial tear of the right plantar fascia ended his 2009 early but now appears to be healed. Blanks will remain in left field until Gonzalez leaves, at which point he will return to his natural position of first base. Wherever Blanks ends up, he will hit. His power plays at any position, in any ballpark on the planet.

Tony Gwynn Jr., acquired last summer from Milwaukee, patrols center field for now. He has good speed, a good batting eye, and a dad with a statue at Petco Park. Gwynn has no power and he doesn’t take advantage of his speed on the bases or in the field. Some defensive metrics show him to be a very good center fielder, but visual observation suggests otherwise. After his first 27 games with the Padres last year, Gwynn was hitting .348/.439/.467. From that point forward, he hit .246/.322/.306, which is a more reasonable baseline of what to expect in the future. Gwynn is a fifth outfielder whose name will keep him in the lineup longer than it should.

Will Venable, another son of a big-league outfielder, will be in right field. Venable was a basketball standout at Princeton and is a terrific athlete. He is big and takes long strides, covering plenty of ground on the bases and in the outfield with ease. Venable probably is the best center fielder on the roster, but right field is demanding at Petco Park and he provides strong defense there as well. On offense, no single aspect of his game stands out but he does many things well. Think Jody Gerut or maybe Ben Francisco. Old school? Brian Jordan at a similar stage of development isn’t a terrible comp.

Bench

Behind the plate, Yorvit Torrealba replaces Henry Blanco as the veteran backup. Dusty Ryan, acquired from the Tigers over the winter, will be the de facto third catcher at Triple-A Portland.

On the infield, Jerry Hairston Jr. can play anywhere and is a legitimate shortstop. He essentially assumes the role vacated by Luis Rodriguez. Oscar Salazar is less of an infielder and more of a hitter, who provides some punch from the right side of the plate.

In the outfield, Scott Hairston returns for his second tour of duty. He should see plenty of action in left and center fields, and could move back into a starting role should Gwynn falter. Hairston has game changing power and isn’t intimidated in the least by Petco Park, where he owns a career line of .285/.346/.535 in 382 PA.

Veteran Matt Stairs is a non-roster invitee and could supply left-handed power off the bench. Recently acquired Aaron Cunningham is also in the mix, although more likely he will start the season at Portland.

Starting Rotation

Last year’s pleasant surprise, Kevin Correia, is this year’s nominal ace. Correia, a local product, achieved career highs in almost every category in 2009. His best case is a repeat, although given his previous track record, something less wouldn’t be shocking. Correia is a no. 4 starter given top billing on a staff with few appealing options.

The Padres brought in Jon Garland on the cheap to eat innings and buy time for some of the young arms. Garland has made at least 30 starts and worked at least 190 innings in each of the past eight seasons. He’ll be a league-average pitcher who could have some appeal to a contender come summer.

Chris Young tries to resurrect his once-promising career. Injuries have taken their toll, but when healthy, he was a dominant force at times. Two things he cannot do are pitch with anything approaching efficiency (4.07 pitches per PA for his career) and control the running game (since Young joined the Padres in 2006, opponents have stolen 120 bases against him, with a surreal 95.2% success rate).

Young left-hander Clayton Richard, part of the haul for Peavy, is the fourth starter. Richard possesses good velocity for a southpaw but spotty command. In his first half-season with the Padres, he sometimes appeared to lose focus in the middle innings. He isn’t terrible, but he isn’t very exciting either. Come to think of it, that describes the entire rotation.

The final spot is up for grabs. Right-handers Sean Gallagher, Mat Latos, and Tim Stauffer, and left-handers Wade LeBlanc and Cesar Ramos are in the mix. Gallagher and Stauffer are out of options, and Gallagher is also a candidate for the bullpen.

Latos has by far the highest upside but at age 22, and with fewer than 250 professional innings under his belt, he is not a lock to start the year in San Diego. He and LeBlanc are the best bets to stick around after 2010. Ramos is 26 years old and has averaged a paltry 5.47 K/9 in more than 600 minor-league innings. He’s a former first-round pick, though, so the Padres may not be ready to cut their losses just yet.

Bullpen

Heath Bell will continue to close as long as he wears the Padres uniform. Mike Adams will continue to work the eighth as long as he remains healthy. Luke Gregerson and Edward Mujica will offer support from the right side, with Joe Thatcher doing the same from the left.

The final two spots will go to whomever is left standing among Gallagher, Radhames Liz, Luis Perdomo, Adam Russell, and Ryan Webb. Farmhands Brandon Gomes and Evan Scribner also could contribute at some  point, particularly if Bell gets traded or Adams gets hurt.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE SAN DIEGO PADRES…

Breakthrough Performance…

Chase Headley

Headley will spend spring training readjusting to the infield. Once he is comfortable back at his old position, he can focus more on the offensive portion of his game, which could see a boost now that he no longer has to “play” the outfield.

Ready to Rebound…

Chris Young

Young gets the nod by default, partly because nobody else really played below their expected level last year and partly because Young was so bad. He reportedly is healthy, so that’s a start. Whether he can reverse a disturbing decline in command (3.04 K/BB in ‘05, 2.38 in ‘06, 2.32 in ‘07, 1.94 in ‘08, 1.25 in ‘09) is another story and one on which his success depends.

Ready to Disappoint…

Tony Gwynn Jr.

People in San Diego want to see Gwynn succeed, but how many 27-year-olds with a career minor-league line of .275/.349/.345 go on to have meaningful careers? There’s a good chance we’ve already seen his peak.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Adrian Gonzalez is traded. Not a day goes by without someone speculating where he might go and what he might fetch in return. It’s only a matter of time.

Be Shocked If…

The Padres finish with a winning record. The pitching is better than it was a year ago, which is a back-handed compliment if ever there was one, but too many questions remain, particularly in terms of how quickly the youngsters will adapt to the big leagues. For the Padres to win, everything has to go right; usually, over the course of a long season, that doesn’t happen.

Rock Steady…

Adrian Gonzalez

Everything said about Gonzalez must be qualified with “for as long as he remains in San Diego,” but nobody else even comes close. He is the one legitimate star on this team. A distant second would be closer Heath Bell, another subject of trade rumors.

Achilles Heel…

Money

I don’t buy the argument that it’s impossible for teams without much money to assemble a consistently competitive product. There have been too many counterexamples, and it seems to me that with enough smarts, great things are possible regardless of circumstances. That said, if the Padres had more money, other teams wouldn’t be salivating over the prospect of acquiring guys like Peavy and Gonzalez.

Although the Padres should be able to recover from the exodus of talent that often accompanies small-market franchises, the cost of losing fans that may have become attached to those players over the years is another matter. The challenge of building and maintaining a stable fan base that believes in the organization despite such high turnover of on-field talent is a very real one that the new ownership group must address if baseball is ever going to thrive in San Diego.

In the Next Three Years…

Fortunately for Padres fans, there is plenty of young talent, both at the big-league level and on the way. Look for Blanks and Latos to emerge as minor stars, with the likes of Cabrera and Headley serving in supporting roles. Down on the farm, keep an eye on Simon Castro, James Darnell, Jaff Decker, and Donavan Tate, among others.

Depending on how the kids develop this year, the Padres could find themselves in contention as early as 2011. Between the young talent and the new ownership group, fans have a renewed sense of hope, much of which is even justified.

Goosebumps Moment…

They’re all goosebumps moments. A bad day at the ballpark is better than a good day pretty much anywhere else. That sounds unbelievably corny, but I happen to believe it.

You stay classy, BDD readers! We’ll be back tomorrow with Isaac Thorn’s Cincinnati Reds’ preview. Until then, enjoy the previews you’ve already read at least twice before:

Previous Previews
Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Baltimore Orioles
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets
Houston Astros
Toronto Blue Jays
Oakland Athletics

Every great western features a climactic showdown, with the main characters settling their differences in a final hail of gunfire. Much like their National League counterparts, the teams of the American League West are set up for an epic final act to the 2010 season. The race is wide open to every club in the division, but there can only be one left standing when the smoke clears.

Baseball’s smallest division is highly turbulent, with a wide range of potential outcomes attached to all four teams. Some of the clubs have undergone considerable turnover in the off-season, and others are hoping to gain ground via healthy comebacks from last season’s training room junkies. Many western teams are also heavily invested in young talent, and are counting on those investments to mature considerably in the near future.

The performance tiers are not as well defined in the junior circuit, and many players lie within the gray areas between sustainers, improvers, and rebounders. In this sense, the A.L. teams are shaped much differently than their N.L brethren, and the result is an even greater range of potential outcomes. The American West is full of outlaws that are vying to claim the territory, and the most recent PECOTA projections find some new faces at the top of the standings.

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Los Angeles Angeles de Anaheim:

2009 W-L: 97-65 (1^st)

2010 W-L: 76-86 (4^th)

            Sustainers: Kendry Morales, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter

            Improvers: Howie Kendrick, Jered Weaver

            Rebounders: Scott Kazmir, Ervin Santana

The Halos are projected to suffer a serious decline, as PECOTA has them pegged to drop 21 games off of last season’s pace. The system predicts them to finish last in the West in 2010, despite winning the division in each of the last three seasons and five of the last six. Much of this speculation is due to the off-season losses of three of their franchise cornerstones in Chone Figgins, John Lackey, and Vladimir Guerrero. Management attempted to patch some of the holes through free agency, but new additions Hideki Matsui, Joel Pineiro, and Fernando Rodney will struggle to measure up to the production of their predecessors.

PECOTA is expecting some heavy regression for Kendry Morales and Torii Hunter, who are two of the Angels’ top anchors for this season. Hunter is coming off of a performance spike, and the 34-year old is likely to fall back closer to his career rates. Morales is tougher to peg, as his relative lack of experience opens up the gamut of possibilities for his triple-slash line. The loss of Lackey leaves Jered Weaver as the de facto ace of the pitching staff, and his career arc points to the potential for another major step forward. The X-factor in the rotation is 26-year old lefty Scott Kazmir, the former TB-Ray who could change the face of the rotation if he can re-harness his stuff and stay on the mound.

The young, untested infield could very well determine the ultimate fate of this team. The departure of Figgins opened up the door for Brandon Wood, who has an impressive minor league resume but has never found a groove on the big stage. He joins perennial disappointment Howie Kendrick, whose considerable potential has been limited by frequent trips to the disabled list. The team might also want to find a way to get more plate appearances for catcher Mike Napoli, in order to add a bona fide slugger to the lineup on a regular basis. The Angels still have the pieces in place to win out west, but they will have to fight with fewer weapons versus tougher opponents this time around.

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Texas Rangers:

2009 W-L: 87-75 (2^nd)

2010 W-L: 80-82 (3^rd)

            Sustainers: Michael Young, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler

            Improvers: Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Julio Borbon

            Rebounders: Josh Hamilton, Chris Davis

With only one pitcher among the pivotal players, the above list underscores the story in Arlington since the Clinton administration. The Ballpark has seen its share of slugfests over the years, but a system rife with mound prospects brings hope that the Rangers can change the status quo. The first of the young guns have already arrived, with Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland both providing glimpses of their considerable potential last season. They are well supported by homegrown talents on defense, thanks to the range of Elvis Andrus and Julio Borbon. Free agent pickup Rich Harden heads the staff, leading a group of inefficient pitchers that will generate high pitch counts and early exits.

Michael Young and Nelson Cruz kept the offense running in 2009 with team-leading marks in OPS, though neither player appeared in more than 135 games. Ian Kinsler led the team in all of the traditional stats, but his 30-30 season helped to mask what was a relatively modest age-27 season. Kinsler’s .327 OBP was the worst of his career, and he lost 78 points of OPS from 2008. The second baseman is the centerpiece of the offense, and last season’s rates could be the floor for the next few years, given an ISO that has improved in every season. The Rangers can also dream that this will finally be the year that Kinsler plays in over 150 games by avoiding the injuries that have dogged his career.

The most dangerous hitter in the Texas lineup entering last season was Josh Hamilton, but the Hammer roller coaster went through a corkscrew in 2009. The capricious outfielder will need to re-discover his power stroke and stay in the lineup in order for Texas to reach their potential, and the same goes for young Chris Davis and veteran import Vladimir Guerrero. The fate of the Rangers will be largely dependent on those three bats, and whether they can post SLG’s in the .500’s while coming to the plate more than 500 times apiece. This team rarely walks, and Young was the only player to crack a .340 OBP last year, so the Rangers will need to slug in order to score runs. Texas has a deep system and is built to take over the division in the near future, and 2010 could mark the beginning of a long run as the team to beat out west.

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Seattle Mariners:

2009 W-L: 85-77 (3^rd)

2010 W-L: 86-76 (1^st)

            Sustainers: Felix Hernandez, Ichiro Suzuki, Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins

            Improvers:  Franklin Gutierrez

            Rebounders: Milton Bradley, Eric Byrnes

The M’s have garnered a lot of attention for their busy off-season, and the additions have made them a trendy pick for division favorite. Half of the sustainers are new arrivals, as the Mariners brought in a pair of players to compliment franchise players Ichiro Suzuki and Felix Hernandez. Cliff Lee will play the role of left-handed doppelganger to King Felix at the top of the rotation, while Chone Figgins will join Ichiro as a tandem of high-contact base thieves at the top of the lineup. Ichiro is coming off of a characteristically great year, while the 24-year old Hernandez had the breakout season that has been anticipated since his debut and is beginning to prove worthy of the royal nickname. 

There is a significant gap between Seattle’s big four sustainers and the rest of the roster. There are very few improvers, and only Franklin Gutierrez appears poised to ascend to the next level. Gutierrez qualifies as a sustainer on defense, and he could reach the next value tier by developing his hitting skills with an up-tick in power and patience. Jose Lopez has developed legit power, and the 26-year old could morph into a serious asset if he learns to take a walk more than once a week. On the mound, Ryan Rowland-Smith could build on last year’s injury-shortened season by maintaining his walk rate for 180 innings, though the team will just hope that Erik Bedard can come back to match last season’s 83 innings in quality and quantity. The Mariners are also rolling the dice that Milton Bradley can rebound from his Chicago struggles to provide a solid source of OBP and SLG. Bradley’s bat could be crucial to a lineup bereft of power, or his powder-keg personality could spontaneously combust, punching his ticket to the bench or out of town.

The additions of Lee, Figgins, and Bradley will be counted on to outperform incumbents Jarrod Washburn, Adrian Beltre, and Russell Branyan. Name value suggests that the Mariners will get an upgrade from the new faces, but the marginal value could be minimal considering the strong 2009 performances of the departed trio. A team built on pitching and defense, the Mariners will likely struggle to score runs this season and are poised to play a lot of close games. The bullpen could play an especially critical role for this team, and the relief corps is very shaky outside of closer David Aardsma. Most of the guys in the bullpen are fighting low K rates, and any BABIP regression could result in disaster. The rotation is also suspect beyond Lee and Hernandez, so the defense will have to carry this team on a daily basis. The M’s have some serious volatility, and it is a bit premature to anoint them the second coming of the ’87 Cardinals. This team could really use a Jack Clark, and I will remain pessimistic until they find one.

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Oakland Athletics:

2009 W-L: 75-87 (4^th)

2010 W-L: 84-78 (2^nd)

            Sustainers: Andrew Bailey

            Improvers: Brett Anderson, Kurt Suzuki, Ryan Sweeney, Daric Barton 

           Rebounders: Eric Chavez, Ben Sheets, Justin Duchscherer

The A’s have a severe lack of sustainers, which is a reflection of their dreadful 2009. The only player with an OPS over .800 last year was half-season rental Matt Holliday, and no starting pitcher cracked an ERA under 4.00 or exceeded 180 innings pitched. The two highest paid players on the team are coming off seasons lost to injury, and there is not a single player that fits the bill of a franchise anchor. There are reasons for optimism, as the A’s had many young players earn valuable experience in the majors last year, and several other prospects showed strong development. Oakland has some big contracts coming off the books after this season, and they have plenty of depth in the minors to swing a big trade, so there is much intrigue on the horizon.

The few bright spots from last year were in the Oakland bullpen, where Michael Wuertz and Rookie of the Year Andrew Bailey were virtually un-hittable. The A’s are low on sustainers, but they have a full stable of young players that can be expected to improve this season, led by battery-mates Brett Anderson and Kurt Suzuki. Oakland could use an influx of power, and the future roles of Ryan Sweeney and Daric Barton will be determined by the ability to mash extra-base hits. The slugging infusion could also come from new additions Jake Fox and Kevin Kouzmanoff, or from farmhands Chris Carter and Michael Taylor. The A’s have struggled with injuries for the past few years, and they may have compounded that problem with the signing of Ben Sheets, who will join fellow 2009 absentee Justin Duchscherer in the rotation. The insurance policies include Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, two pitchers that will need to harness their command in order to pay off.

Oakland hit bottom last year, but this is a young team with players on the rise and an outlook to steadily improve over the next few years. It will be another heavy development year, and the ascension of top prospects will force the team to sort out the positional logjams at first base, DH, and the outfield. PECOTA sees a 2^nd place team in 2010, though it will be tough for the A’s to gain the 15-20 wins that will be necessary to compete this year. It might be premature to call them serious contenders, but the division is wide open and they could sneak in with some breakout performances and a lot of luck in the health department.

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The A.L. West is plagued by question marks, and the fate of the division could come down to team health and the development of young talent. The western territory has been under the control of Angel Eyes for a long time, but a “team with no name” could stage a coup in 2010. The gun-slinging pitching staffs will play a major role, and we might be looking at a three-team September showdown for a spot in the playoffs. It is shaping up to be an Oscar-worthy script, and I am holding out hope that we can get Clint Eastwood to direct.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

‘09 Record: 75-87, 4th in AL West
Pythagorean Record: 81-81 (-6 differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 84-78 (2nd in AL West)
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2009 Review

While it can’t be called a complete failure, it’s safe to say that Billy Beane’s first foray into the free agent market for some time last offseason was anything but a resounding success. Matt Holliday and Orlando Cabrera performed well enough but were shipped to contenders by the end of summer. Nomar Garciaparra predictably couldn’t stay on the playing field and Jason Giambi’s feel-good return to his original team hid the fact he was barely a shell of the player he once was.

Meanwhile, the team found bullpen success out of the blue (again) with Andrew Bailey and Michael Wuertz, however, the team’s bullpen strength could not overcome a mediocre starting staff which saw 14 pitchers get at least one start for the team. All in all the A’s followed up 75 and 76 wins in 2007 and 2008, respectively, with another 75 wins in 2009. A dark horse candidate to contend in 2009, the team struggled out of the gate, settling in to fourth place for good by May 3, and once again at the gate, becoming the first team other than the Marlins to finish last in baseball in attendance since 2005.

2010 Outlook

The A’s could actually surprise some people both in 2010 and beyond. As of this writing, Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projections has them finishing second, a mere two games behind Seattle. Given that the Mariners already had a significant improvement in ’09, a continued improvement out of Seattle might be difficult for the Mariners to maintain providing further optimism in Oakland.

Of course, someone will need to alert the fan base that a possible contender lurks in the Coliseum’s tarp-covered shadows.

2010 Team

Catcher

Underrated Kurt Suzuki remains one of the team’s assets, as 25 year old catchers who can hit 15 home runs are valuable commodities. However, that power surge, which surpassed his first two seasons combined, included a disturbing second half OBP of .286. Suzuki followed up a strange 2008 campaign that saw an OPS at his pitcher-friendly home that was over 200 points higher than on the road, only to see that trend go in reverse in 2009 as his home/road OPS split was .794/.671.

Infield

Though he has been bouncing around the minors since being drafted in the first round (by St. Louis) in 2003, Daric Barton is only 24 years old and still has time to develop into a solid regular. He put up positive offensive and defensive numbers after being called up last August and will likely hold down first base to start 2010.

Incumbent Mark Ellis continues to put up 10+ home runs from second base while not staying on the field for the whole season, missing nearly 100 games the past two years.

2005 first rounder Cliff Pennington was a pleasant surprise at shortstop for the team following the trade of Orlando Cabrera to the Twins on July 31. Pennington, who has a career .720 minor league OPS, posted a nice little .760 OPS in 60 games for the A’s. Manager Bob Geren said the starting shortstop position is a camp battle though it would be somewhat of a surprise if Pennington is not in the starting lineup on Opening Day.

Acquired from San Diego in the offseason, Kevin Kouzmanoff will give Oakland stability at the hot corner, as the team has been struggling to find a consistent presence at third base since Eric Chavez started falling apart a few years back.

Outfield

Ryan Sweeney plays the role that Billy Beane fulfilled during his brief playing days — that of a guy who looks like he should be a tremendous ballplayer but whose numbers leave something to be desired. Armed with a beautiful left-handed swing, Sweeney actually offers much more value with his defense, posting the second highest UZR/150 in the outfield in all of baseball in 2009.

Pleasant surprise Rajai Davis will likely start the season in left field, though he could see time in center field. New instructor Rickey Henderson sees some serious base-stealing potential in Davis, predicting Davis could swipe 80 bases this season. While this claim may be a bit of a stretch, Davis will contribute on the basepaths (The Bill James Handbook said Davis was the fourth best baserunner in baseball in 2009) and in the field (16.2 UZR/150), though not a whole lot with his powerless bat (7 home runs in 333 career games).

Coco Crisp rounds out the defensive outfield that looks to cover the vast outfield territory at the Oakland Coliseum as well as part of the parking lot.  However, Crisp has not contributed much to speak of offensively since the days when he was supposed to make Red Sox Nation forget about Johnny Damon.

Designated Hitter

Three True Outcomes hero Jack Cust has gone from underrated to overrated. The offensively-challenged A’s were willing to chance losing his 84 home runs since 2007 (tied for sixth most in the American League) and did not offer arbitration in the off-season. He was brought back after taking a slight pay cut.

Bench

Perennial what-could-have-been Eric Chavez (MVP votes every year from 2002-2005, 390 games missed from 2006-2009) could see time at multiple positions in 2010 including first and third base. Eric Patterson can play all three outfield positions and second base. Jake Fox, brought over from the Cubs in the off-season, could see time at either corner infield position.

Starting Rotation

The Ben Sheets signing for a surprising $10 million guaranteed (with additional bonuses to boot) marked perhaps the first free agent signing in awhile in which, before the ink dried, fans were already wondering where he would wind up next. The common wisdom is that Sheets was signed to flip for prospects to a contender, which could very well prove to be the case.

Like Sheets, 2008 All-Star Justin Duchscherer also missed the entire 2009 season with various injuries, including a bout with depression. It is certainly an iffy proposition to rely on multiple front-of-the-rotation starters who have missed all of the previous season. So far the results are predictably mixed as Sheets appears ready to recapture his old form, however Duchscherer’s spot in the rotation to begin 2010 is currently in doubt as he so far has been unable to build enough stamina to prove his durability.

Brett Anderson, brought over to Oakland as part of the haul for Dan Haren, has potential All-Star written all over him at the ripe old age of 22. Something close to a full season out of soft-throwing-but-effective Dallas Braden would be a boon to the starting rotation. Braden was quietly effective before a foot infection ended his season by the end of July. Trevor Cahill reliably took to the mound week in and week out in 2009 with decent results. Given the unpredictability in the rest of the rotation, he will most likely get his fair share of starts in 2010.

Gio Gonzalez’s 5.75 ERA was rough, though Gonzalez’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) mark of 4.47 in ’09 shows him to be a much better pitcher than last year’s ERA and makes him a good candidate to fill out the back of the rotation. Brett Tomko is also fighting for a roster spot after making six surprisingly impressive starts for the team in 2009 but won’t be ready until May.

Bullpen

Andrew Bailey got the press and a Rookie of the Year Award to go on his mantle though veteran Michael Wuertz was equally valuable to the team (both posted 2.4 WAR). The bullpen remains a strength of the team. 2008 lighting-in-a-bottle success Joey Devine may not be fully recovered by Opening Day after missing all of 2009. If he can regain even a portion of his sparkling form from ‘08 (0.59 ERA, 0.83 WHIP), this bullpen becomes tougher.

Though Brad Ziegler’s ERA tripled from ’08 to ’09 it still only jumped to just over three, though his 1.50 WHIP will make it difficult to keep the ERA around that same level for long. Jon Meloan pitched for four organizations in ’09 meaning he’s sure to break out for Oakland in ’10.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE OAKLAND ATHLETICS…

Breakthrough Performance…

Kevin Kouzmanoff

While trading Petco for the Oakland Coliseum may be a modest improvement in hitting environments, it’s an improvement nonetheless.  His Equivalent (standardized) Slugging % (EqSLG) has been 30 or more points higher than his actual slugging percentage in each of the last three years thanks to the Petco effect.

Ready to Rebound…

Kurt Suzuki

Rebound candidates are a bit tough to come by on this team as many of those who disappointed in ’09 are no longer with the organization. However, Kurt Suzuki’s second half last year was disappointing and the rest of his career numbers show he can perform better.

Ready to Disappoint…

Cliff Pennington

In all likelihood Pennington outperformed himself in ’09 after replacing Orlando Cabrera. The club recognized this as well in seeking out the services of Marco Scutaro, who signed with Boston.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

The rotation does not drag down the team as it has in recent years. While there are question marks at the top enough viable backup plans remain to make the starting rotation not a total liability. How is that for a ringing endorsement?

Be Shocked If…

Anyone is around to watch a potential A’s turnaround in 2010. The team’s constant flirting with every possible available parcel of land within a 50 mile radius on which to build a new stadium does nothing to encourage fans to watch a team without star power that might be in contention.

Rock Steady…

Ryan Sweeney

While his offensive numbers do not drop any jaws, FanGraphs still ranked Sweeney as the 16th most valuable outfielder in baseball in 2009 using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) thanks almost exclusively to his defense. Even if his bat never fully comes around his defensive value is unlikely to wane any time soon.

Achilles Heel…

The Infield Excluding Third Base

Pennington at shortstop and Barton and Ellis at first and second base, respectively, are either unknown quantities (Pennington and Barton) or in the final years of their career (Ellis).  Whatever the reason, their collective offensive production will be below that of the rest of the team.

In the Next Three Years…

The A’s will either need to become contenders for multiple seasons or find a resolution to their stadium issue (or in all likelihood both) in order to establish long-term stability for the franchise.

Fall off Your Chair Moment…

Learning that Beane and Moneyball-nemesis Grady Fuson are once again on friendly working terms. The only potential baseball reunion more shocking would be the Red Sox rehiring Grady Little.

One-third of the way through, BDD shows more California love with Geoff Young’s San Diego Padres preview tomorrow. Here’s the teams we’ve covered so far:

Previous Previews
Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Baltimore Orioles
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets
Houston Astros
Toronto Blue Jays

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

‘09 Record: 75-87, 4th in AL East
Pythagorean Record: 84-78 (-9 Differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 69-93 (5th in AL East)
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2009 Review

Last year’s Toronto Blue Jays posted W-L record that, on the surface, seems unexceptional. But, some interesting statistics lie beneath their pedestrian finish. For instance, by outscoring their opponents for the season by 27 runs, the Jays posted the worst difference in all of MLB between their expected win-loss total based on run differential versus their actual record. To provide an example of how goofy that is, the Chicago Cubs had about the same difference between runs scored and runs allowed in 2009 and finished 83-78, one game within their expected outcome.

The Blue Jays finished the year 31-50 on the road despite outscoring their opponents by 8 runs overall during those games. Of course, most of the Jays’ misfortune came from being in the American League East. They ran out to a quick start and led the division by 3.5 games on May 18. However, Toronto lost 9 straight and never recovered. They finished the year 20 games under .500 against the A.L. East while playing 8 games above .500 against the rest of the American League.

The biggest team news in 2009 was off the field as the front-office decided to embrace radical reconstruction. They discarded high-paid big-name players like Scott Rolen and Alexis Rios during the season. On October 3, they fired J.P. Ricciardi and named Assistant G.M. and V.P. of Baseball Operations Alexander Anthopoulos as the new General Manager. A week later, Dick Scott was out as Director of Player Development.

Finally, at the end of the month, they named Paul Beeston President and C.E.O.. But, all that would just be a preview to the entirety of their makeover. Just before Christmas, the Jays traded face-of-the-franchise ace Roy Halliday to the Philadelphia Phillies and essentially took themselves out of any serious hopes of playing .500 baseball in 2010.

2010 Outlook

With the Orioles expecting better things as soon as this season, Toronto’s outlook is pretty bleak. They start 2010 as the worst team on paper in the best division in baseball. The rotation is inexperienced. The offense’s success will rely too much on their batting average and power, since very few starters look like they’ll frequent the base paths. But, with their off-season moves, it’s not 2010 Toronto is building toward. The Halliday trade (and subsequent flip of Michael Taylor to Oakland for Brett Wallace) garnered Toronto their top three prospects in pitcher Kyle Drabek, corner infielder Wallace, and catcher Travis d’Arnaud. Those players, combined with the acquisition of Brandon Morrow, give the Blue Jays a good core of talented young players that could start contributing in the near future.

2010 Team

Catcher

This past winter, Toronto signed free agent catchers John Buck and Jose Molina as placeholders. Both Travis d’Arnaud and J.P. Arencibia — currently ranked in the organization’s top 5 prospects according to Baseball Prospectus — seem close to spending time north of the border. Before that happens, Toronto will start Buck and have a catcher with moderate power, but very low OBP.  Molina will back him up and either could be dealt for a pittance near the trade deadline.

Infield

First baseman Lyle Overbay gets on base a little but lacks power and provides average defense. At $8 million in the final year of his contract, being a Blue Jay for the duration of ‘10 looks like a long shot.

Aaron Hill had a breakout season at second, following through on the promise he showed two years ago before injuries kept him out of most of 2008. His .286/.330/.499 line included a stunning 36 home runs and won him a Silver Slugger Award and a trip to his first All-Star game. It could be hard for him to repeat such a season (more on that later), but he’s certainly one of the best players on the team.

Newcomer Alex Gonzalez’s glove may be based more on reputation than reality, although he turned enough dazzling plays in the first half of last year in Cincinnati to say he’s still good enough defensively to help out a young group of starters who need all the defense they can get. Don’t expect much offensively from him, though.

The mid-season swap that sent Scott Rolen away delivered Edwin Encarnacion to Toronto. The third baseman’s bat has always teased, showing periods of power combined with decent on-base skills. He hurt his wrist early last year and, despite a small sample of good slugging after his return, those types of injuries often result in power dips. At 27, he needs to show he can hit well enough to offset his uninspiring defense for a full season. In the likely event he does, Encarnacion will remain the club’s starter.

Outfield

With Vernon Wells set for a pay increase that sees him making nearly $100 million from 2011-14, the huge slice of Toronto’s payroll pie will definitely be shopped. The contract that could solely justify the Ricciardi termination will either cost the Jays a large chunk of change to move or stick the club with Wells who turned 30 and hit .260/.311/.400 last year. He’s not awful and could even bounce back but that contract is ugly.

On one side of Wells, youngster Travis Snider will get another chance to show if he can be counted on as a full-time player in left field.  He played briefly with the big club the past two seasons and showed a little pop from the left side of the plate. He just turned 22 in February and his minor league stats reflect an “all-or-nothing approach” that results in some homers, but lots of strikeouts. He could hit 25 homers this year or strike out 160 times… or both.

On the other side, Jose Bautista will play right and likely be the Blue Jays lead-off hitter. Bautista is probably better suited to be a fourth outfielder and is definitely better suited to bat lower in the order. But, they have so few options for the top of the order that they will apparently turn to a player with a career .329 OBP and hope for the best.

Designated Hitter

Adam Lind is a rose among thorns in the Blue Jays offense. PECOTA projections have Lind following up his breakout season with a slight decline. Last year, the Blue Jay DH hit .305/.372/.562 and even a pessimistic projection still calls for around 30 home runs in 2010. One thing that could work against Lind and make regression more likely is that he’ll see lots of lefties late in games and be pitched around often if those behind him can’t show an ability to impact games early in the season. Still, he’s been highly regarded in the past, had a great year in ‘09, and is just now moving into the prime of his career.

Bench

The Blue Jay bench is not very awe-inspiring, unless free-agent signee Joey Gathright will jump over cars during the 7th inning stretch. A likely course of action will be a 13-man bullpen to protect the young starters’ arms and possible call ups of the near-MLB talent in the Minors for a chance to break in, maybe even before the half-way point of the season.

Starting Rotation

The competition for a rotation spot is wide open. Right now, we can probably call Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, Brandon Morrow, Marc Rzepczynski, and Brett Cecil the favorites. Of those five, Marcum is the most experienced, with a whopping 64 starts. He pitched well at the big league level in 2008, but Tommy John surgery cost him 2009. He came out of his first spring start of this season feeling good and if he can show he’s fully recovered he will likely be the Opening Day starter. Acquired in the off-season, Morrow was the 5th overall pick in the 2006 amateur draft and was highly ranked in the Mariner system. Rzepczynski did some nice work in limited action (3.67 ERA) after his call-up. He’s only allowed 5 HR in 254.2 minor league innings and, if he can keep the ball in the park, he may survive this baptism by fire.  Brett Cecil missed a lot of bats in the minors, but was hit pretty hard in 18 games with Toronto last year.  The group is ridiculously inexperienced and will face Boston and New York often. Pray for them.

Bullpen

This looks to be the strength of the team, as Scott Downs and Jason Frasor have been very good pitchers. Jesse Carlson and Shawn Camp have shown they can keep the ball in the park, despite not making a habit of blowing hitters away. In contrast, new addition Kevin Gregg spent the majority of 2009 watching his offerings leave the yard. His run as closer on other teams likely means he’ll inherit that role again this year. If he can go back to his career HR/FB rate, he’s a passable 9th inning pitcher despite his occasional wildness. Giving him the closer title would actually leave the better Toronto relievers available for higher-leverage situations.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE TORONTO BLUE JAYS…

Breakthrough Performance…

Adam Lind

Can a guy that hit over .3oo, blasted 35 homers, and knocked in over 100 runs be primed for a breakout? Well, when that person is the best hitter on the team and only 26, I’m going to go with yes. There may not be much room for improvement, but Lind has to have the highest ceiling of any starter and nothing from ’09 screams fluke. If he can continue to improve his walk rate and keep hitting one of five of his fly balls out of the park, he can break through by showing he’s elite and not just a one-year wonder.

Ready to Rebound…

Shaun Marcum

Close to a year removed from Tommy John surgery, Marcum should be fine to start the season. He was 26 in 2008 when he made 25 starts and only allowed 126 hits in 151.1 innings.  His BABIP that season of .246 means he may give up a few more hits even if he pitches as well as he did two years ago. Still, a sub-4.00 ERA and 1.163 WHIP over that many starts means he has the potential for another good year in 2010.

Ready to Disappoint…

Aaron Hill

PECOTA projections at Baseball Prospectus call for Hill’s homers to fall from 2009’s elite total of 36 to a still above-average 25. Ron Shandler also noted in his Baseball Forecaster that Hill benefitted from a higher than usual percentage (for him) of fly balls ending up in the seats. In fact, one of the easiest differences to spot in Hill’s ’07 and ’09 results are the decline in doubles that turned in to taters in 2009. If PECOTA nails it and he hits the wall on a dozen or so drives, that could easily knock him back down in the 20s. That’s still really good for a middle infielder, but disappointing if you’re looking for a run at 40 bombs.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Wells is traded, young players are called up, and several starters fail to hold their job for the full season. This season could derail quickly.

Be Shocked If…

The rotation is consistent and able to pitch deep into games. As noted, they are very young and will often face patient and potent lineups.  They’ve got some talent, but once teams get a second and third look, they could get roughed up.

Rock Steady…

Adam Lind

My breakout player is also the most likely to have a well above average year.

Achilles Heel…

The youth on the mound.

In the Next Three Years…

Some of these young guys could pan out and the front office could have a ton of money to spend. They’ve invested heavily in their scouting, but must sign their early round picks so they’ll have talent coming up to entice free agents to play for them.

Lame Duck Walk…

Manager Cito Gaston enters 2010 knowing he’ll be out of the dugout and in an office after the season. He’s already guaranteed a consultant position and Toronto will look for a replacement for 2011.

Nine down, 21 to go. We’re California dreamin’ with our next two previews — Jeff Lubbers takes on the Oakland Athletics and Geoff Young returns to BDD for the first time in nearly a year to deliver the San Diego Padres — so don’t miss ‘em! Oh, and these were worth a look, too…

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