The last weeks of July are marked by packed bags and plane tickets, as a multitude of ballplayers experience a sudden change of address during the period between the All Star Game and the trade deadline. The guys grabbing the headlines are either veterans fishing for a contender or prospects that could be used as bait, but there has also been a recent wave of minor league reinforcements to infiltrate league rosters, with several batsmen in particular receiving the call to active duty.

High hopes are often heaped upon the shoulders of rookies, whether they are entrenched in critical roles for playoff-bound teams or just playing out the string on a club that’s built for the long haul. Nothing brings out the irrational exuberance in a baseball fan quite like a prospect making his debut, but the reality is that most of these players will fall short of their lofty expectations, at least in the early going, as very few hitters are able to solve the puzzle of major league pitching without a lengthy adjustment period.

Every spring, Kevin Goldstein ranks his top 100 prospects for Baseball Prospectus, and we can learn much about the difficulty of making the adjustment to the highest level of competition by taking a glance at how the best of those players have performed in their initial MLB trials. Consider the following list, which includes the top position players on KG’s list for 2011 that have seen big league playing time, including BP’s VORP numbers for positional context.

Mike Trout was Goldstein’s #2 overall prospect this spring, but the 19-year old was not expected to see the bigs until this September at the earliest. However, a perfect storm of eye-popping tools, savory stat lines, and injuries at the big league level produced a July callup for the center fielder. The jump has proven difficult for the teenager, but manager Mike Scioscia has been impressed with the kid despite the early struggles. The Halos denied the opportunity to send Trout back down to the minors after regular CF Peter Bourjos returned from injury, instead preferring to stick with the kid for an extended audition, though Trout has started just two games since Bourjos’ July 23^rd return.

#4 on the list was Domonic Brown, who was poised to jump ahead in the rookie of the year race with the RF job in Philadelphia on lockdown heading into Spring Training. Those plans were derailed by an early spring slump followed by a broken wrist, and his performance upon belated arrival has been subpar for a team with World Series aspirations. Alas, the Phils’ acquisition of Hunter Pence from Houston punched Brown’s ticket back to Lehigh Valley, where he will get “regular at bats,” which is code for “preparing to take over for Raul Ibanez in 2012.”

Of all the rookies on this list, Mike Moustakas has had the most frustrating initial taste of the Show. Mous was the most prolific home run threat in the minors last year, and his 2011 stat line from AAA Oklahoma included 44 RBI in 55 games, so it came as quite a shock when the third baseman managed just a single bomb and four RBI through his first 30 games in the bigs. The homer came in just his second major league game, and Moustakas reached base multiple times in each of his first four contests, setting up the KC fan base for an Alex Gordon-level disappointment over the next month. He endured a painful 2-for-47 stretch book-ended around the All Star Game, but the Royals have opted to stick by their power prodigy, at least for the time being, and his 6 RBI in the last 8 games shine a glimmer of hope at the end of the tunnel.

Teammate Eric Hosmer is next on the list at #12, and though he trails Moustakas in both age and minor league experience, the 21-year old Hosmer was actually the first of the pair to get the call. The first baseman has enjoyed a much more lucrative experience than his colleague across the Royal diamond; with almost a half-season under his belt, the #3 overall pick from the 2008 draft has established a 162-game pace of 20+ homers and 100 RBI, while experiencing the ups and downs that are characteristic of a young player as he adjusts to life on the big stage. After a monster showing in his opening week, Hosmer went through a rough patch as the league made adjustments, but now he is back on the upswing and enjoying a 10-game hitting streak entering today’s games.

Freddie Freeman was the odds-on preseason favorite for NL rookie of the year, thanks to the injury to Brown as well as his reserved spot at first base for Atlanta. The Braves stuck by Freeman as he labored through April at a .217/.313/.380 clip, allowing the rookie to gain the experience of more plate appearances in order to learn pitch recognition at the major league level. They have been rewarded with an OPS that has increased in every month of the season, culminating in a .366/.440/.614 line for Freeman in July. The contending Braves are desperately seeking offensive help at the deadline, but one spot where they are set is at the first bag, and it is safe to say that Freeman is still a top contender for ROTY, seeing as he leads all rookie position players in VORP.

The Mariners’ Dustin Ackley has just one-third of the plate appearances of Freeman, yet he has already accumulated 80% of the VORP, with a total that is good enough to measure fourth on the rookie VORP list for hitters. The score is due as much to his second base eligibility as his batting line, but the former Golden Spikes Award finalist has already quieted many of the doubts about his ability to hit for power in the bigs. In fact, the .543 slugging percentage and .233 ISO through his first 35 games are 60 points higher than his best marks in the minors. Ackley has moved quickly through the system, needing just 200 minor league games before earning his promotion to the Show, which leaves open the possibility that he is just scratching the surface of his considerable talent.

The concept of “regular at bats” is a common theme among rookies and prospects, as it makes little sense to have a young player waste such valuable development time collecting splinters, but such is the case with the world champion Giants and their handling of prized young slugger Brandon Belt. Perhaps the biggest roster surprise of Opening Day was Belt’s presence in the San Francisco lineup, as the Giants eschewed the Super Two shenanigans that kept Buster Posey in the minors through late May of last year. It was all uphill from there, as the Giants have played Belt like a yo-yo between San Francisco and Fresno, and from first base to the outfield, all sandwiched around his recovery from a fractured wrist. The acquisition of Carlos Beltran has apparently put Belt on the Travis Ishikawa program from last season, which calls for a couple of spot starts per week in order to give the vets a rest. Continuing to write Aubrey Huff’s name on the lineup card in lieu of Belt’s is damaging not only to the rook’s development, but also to the team’s chances of repeating last season’s success.

A total of 17 of the position players from Kevin Goldstein’s pre-season Top 100 Prospects have seen MLB playing time this year, and a handful of players have already ascended to the majors from a recent snapshot of the mid-season Top 50 prospects. However, fans and fantasy players should heed the lessons of rookie predecessors and temper expectations for the initial performances of pre-season #18 Desmond Jennings and #28 Jason Kipnis, as well as diminutive rapid riser Jose Altuve. While those youngsters get their first taste of the majors, some teams are facing tough decisions with prospects that have had difficult debuts, and will be forced to weigh the least damaging option between crushing an ego with a demotion or letting a player take a further beating in the bigs.

The 2011 Draft was absolutely loaded with pitching, and for the first time in the history of the event, each of the top four selections were moundsmen. As a group, the 2011 draftees had unparalleled depth with regard to upside, stuff, and mechanics. The first three choices were of the college variety, while #4 Dylan Bundy was tabbed by some as “the most polished high school pitcher in years.” Of course, “polished” is another one of those scout-speak terms with a loose definition, but the implication is that Bundy’s delivery is very advanced for a pitcher his age.

Last year, I broke down the top drafted pitchers by utilizing the excellent scouting videos at mlb.com, which included in-game footage from the athletes’ amateur ballgames, including radar gun readings for velocity. The videos at mlb.com have taken a severe hit in quality this year, and very few of the clips contain game footage; many of the clips are nothing more than a handful of pictures that are slow-panned for dramatic effect. The few videos that contain actual footage are mostly taken from bullpen sessions, and many pitchers look great in the ‘pen only to see the wheels come off when they get on the big bump at center stage. It requires real game footage to assess a player’s true momentum, balance, posture, stride, and more.

With mlb.com falling short this season, I had to look elsewhere, and the MLB Network was happy to oblige. The televised draft coverage had game clips for high school pitchers as well as collegians, providing the opportunity for a more thorough analysis, despite having just a couple of pitches to study. Unfortunately, the TV footage is not available online, which makes it tougher for my loyal readers to follow along. With this in mind, each pitcher’s breakdowns will reference the mlb.com videos (available here) in addition to the live coverage on MLB network.

Given the lack of resources, I’m offering a quicker rundown of the top drafted pitchers, with some notes on what I saw in that limited exposure. Drink it up with large grains of salt, and you will notice that the grades for mechanics are missing, as the footage was too limited for me to do much better than a dart-throw on the grades for each hurler.

I figure there’s no better place to start than at the top, so let’s begin by taking a look at the four pitchers that made history last week.

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#1 Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA

The video on mlb.com is just about worthless, as ¾ of the airtime is consumed by his rubberband workout regimen and his slow walk off the field before a game for Team USA. We do get two pitches from the bullpen at 80% effort, but I’ve seen plenty of players that could put on a mechanics clinic in the ‘pen, only to watch everything fall apart once the ump yells, “play ball!” It’s like the hitter that puts on a power display in batting practice, but fails to coordinate his swing against live pitching. 

The Draft coverage on MLB Network was much more informative, and the game footage supported all of the positive points from his bullpen session. Cole has decent momentum and he strides directly toward the target, but the part of his delivery that caught my attention occurs during the second half of the motion. After foot strike, Cole generates tremendous rotational velocities that result in a lightning-quick arm, thanks to a strong delay of shoulder rotation combined with a huge upper body load prior to firing his bullets. He finishes with excellent posture and a ¾ arm slot, which is a vast improvement over his delivery when he was first drafted by the Yankees in the first round of 2008. During the telecast, Harold Reynolds pointed out the improvement, though he took it from an angle that is rarely heard around the halls of Baseball University; he claimed that the lower arm slot helped Cole’s stuff and effectiveness. Shockingly, Reynolds was not referring to improved control, and video footage underscored his point with the devastating arm-side run of his fastball being put on full display. The analysts kept saying that Cole had the “best stuff in the draft,” but the early returns suggest that he might have the best mechanics, as well.

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#2 Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia

The mlb.com footage is limited to snapshots of the left-handed Hultzen, and the close zoom angle prevents the viewer from seeing more than just a couple of minor details. They do allow us to see that Hultzen has balanced arm angles as he approaches foot strike, and that he uses more of his hips than his shoulders in order to to create torque, indicated by a belt buckle that is turning toward the plate long before the start of upper-body rotation. The final picture shows Hultzen during the later phases of the delivery, just before he reaches maximum external rotation of the throwing arm, which is a long way of mentioning the point at which the forearm appears to lay back before snapping forward into release point. It’s too bad that the dramatic zoom-and-pan technique prevents us from seeing more of his throwing arm on what appears to be a heavily-pronated changeup.

The MLB Network coverage showed that Hultzen directs his momentum straight at the target, though the magnitude of that momentum is just mediocre, resulting in a relatively short stride. The southpaw has very solid posture, which is rare for a lefty, as well as a strong glove position near release point. His delivery fits the “smooth, clean” mold that makes scouting directors drool like a Pavlovian dog. However, it appears that Hultzen fails to get extension on his release point, due to a relatively early release in addition to the modest stride and momentum. His hip-shoulder separation is far from elite, and he uses a sharp hip-turn to trigger much of his rotational velocity. Hultzen is also one of those closed-striding left-handers that appear to pitch around a corner, similar to the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner, and he creates a fierce angle on left-handed batters.

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#3 Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA

Bauer’s mlb.com “video” is another slide show of pictures, the first of which looks like a yearbook photo. The other pictures are actually informative, and the first real photo provides a great look at his outstanding momentum, which is indicated by the distance that his center-of-mass has traveled toward the plate. The distance is considerable for this early phase of the delivery (just after leg lift and the breaking of the hands), and this heavy momentum is at the center of the Tim Lincecum comparisons that have been showered on the Bruin right-hander. One can also see that Bauer maintains his balance as he generates momentum, which can be viewed by watching how his head is centered above the navel, which serves as an approximation for his center of mass. The next picture displays his early upper-body load, as he rotates the shoulder-axis clockwise prior to reaching foot strike. The pictures that follow include one taken after foot strike, and another in which the comparisons to Tim Lincecum come full circle thanks to a huge posture change that Bauer uses to “get on top of the ball.” The poor posture is a potential injury risk as well as an obstacle to achieving consistency at release point, particularly for a pitcher that generates such a vast amount of kinetic energy. The later pictures demonstrate an enormous stride, and a hip-shoulder separation that is heavy on the shoulders and light on the hips, though the result is a ton of torque.

The draft coverage hammered home the Tim Lincecum comparisons, and Peter Gammons provided the added background detail that Bauer is a huge fan of the Giant CY winner. Bauer’s motion is clearly influenced by the Linecum model, with the same clockwise hip-turn as he reaches maximum leg lift, followed by Timmy’s trademark stride and momentum and finishing with the same approach of “get on top.” However, Bauer’s strengths are less exaggerated than those of Timmy, while his postural weakness is worse than that of his long-haired predecessor. I am not yet ready to crown him as the second coming of “the Freak,” but his aggressive delivery and unique workout regimen have certainly put Bauer on the radar.

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#4 Dylan Bundy, RHP, High School

Bundy’s mlb.com video was the first of the top four picks that included actual game footage, which was a welcome sigh of relief from the rusty bells and whistles that comprised the other selections. The first thing I noticed was a high leg kick that was pulled straight from Trevor Hoffman’s storage closet, right down to the exaggerated toe point. Bundy doesn’t reach the lift height of Hoffman, but he could get there with a couple years of professional conditioning to amp up his functional strength and flexibility. Bundy does not have great momentum, but he does a good job of initiating movement toward the plate, so there is much room for improvement. The right-hander has a very upright spine during the early phases of his delivery, and though strong posture is an asset, Bundy appears to be very stiff prior to foot strike. Of course, the key is to have strong posture near release point, but Bundy’s spine angle goes to hell after foot strike, which places a big question mark on the legitimacy of his “polish.” Granted, it was only a couple pitches, but one would think that a pitcher with such “polish” would be able to hit the catcher’s target during warm-ups.

The Draft coverage further substantiated the fact that Bundy has a ways to go before catching up to his top-4 contemporaries. The analysts claimed that “everyone loves his mechanics,” but at least one skeptic is sitting here typing with doubt. His release point consistency is hampered by a late posture change, with considerable head movement to the glove side. What is deceiving to the eye is that Bundy finishes without any spin-off to the glove side, and he appears to tighten up and pause during the follow-through in order to keep himself from “falling off the mound.” While visually pleasing, this strategy acts to functionally halt his natural progression. One incredibly strong asset is Bundy’s hip-shoulder separation, which helps him to crank triple-digit heaters thanks to well-delayed shoulder rotation and a huge upper-body load. He also has great glove stabilization, but the positive points are overshadowed by poor dynamic balance and shady posture, with a head that trails his center-of-mass and jerks to the glove side near the end of the delivery. His stuff is impressive, and nobody will doubt the fastball, but his manipulated curveball has a huge hump that batters can pick up early in the flight path, and the pitch will likely be crushed at the upper levels. Bundy does have a rhythmic swaying motion to his delivery, which lends to the “polished” label, but I have to disagree with Peter Gammons’ assertion that the kid “repeats his delivery.”

Sorry for the delay on this top-100 list. There were some calculation problems (it was adding in Mexican League stats without translating them, making for some very “interesting” pitchers percolating to the top). But it should be good now. Cutoff is at 30 full-season innings, so some minor-league relievers show up very high, like Kimbrel and Storey. It will be interesting to see how they do, as minor-league relief stats are notably bad at forecasting future performance.

http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/ml/mlp-pitchers/

Enjoy!

-Rob

Here are some MLP’s for players with 30+ IP in 2007, based on 2005-2007 data: