The Tampa Bay Rays exhausted their season to the final stroke before clinching the playoffs, and with top starters David Price and James Shields having pitched in the days prior, the Rays turned to a rookie pitcher to start Game One of the ALDS against the Rangers. Tampa possesses one of the front runners for the Rookie of the Year Award in hurler Jeremy Hellickson, yet Helix was not the rook in question; that pitcher was southpaw Matt Moore.

Baseball America ranked Moore just behind Hellickson at #2 on the Rays’ top prospect list entering the season, and Kevin Goldstein tabbed him as the top pitching prospect in baseball back in July. That said, this was a kid with all of 9.1 major league innings under his belt, including just a single major league start, a mark that set a record for playoff greenhorns. Moore shined in his lone start, blanking the Yankees over five innings with 11 of the 15 outs coming via the strikeout, and earning his first major league victory in the process. The other appearances in Moore’s cup of coffee came out of the ‘pen, where the left-hander struggled, much as predecessor Hellickson experienced last year.

Selected out of high school in the 8^th round of the 2007 draft, Moore has climbed the minor league ladder with great success, having led all of the minor leagues in strikeouts in both 2009 and ‘10. He has compiled a rate of 12.7 K’s per nine innings during his stretch in the minors, and last season’s total of 208 punchouts was the most in any minor league in the last nine years. The numbers have translated to the bigs, and Game One of the ALDS provided the opportunity to learn how the 6′2”, 200-lb left-hander makes so many batters take that long walk back to the dugout.

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Stuff

The Heat: Moore has a live fastball that was topping out at 98 mph on the TBS gun, and the heat consistently sat in the 96-98 mph range through the first two innings. In his Midseason Top 50, Goldstein observed that Moore had added a couple of ticks since last year, and the velocity plays up further when it is coming from a port-sider. KG also noted Moore’s improved command this season, a trait that is reflected in his shrunken walk rate and which addresses the one weakness in M&M’s game coming into 2011. The lefty throws lasers, though I was not overly impressed by the movement on his 4-seam fastball in Game One, and both velocity and command deteriorated as the game progressed. By the 6^th inning, Moore was sitting 92-94 with the fastball and struggling to hit his spots on a consistent basis, including a handful of pitches that missed Kelly Shoppach’s glove by feet rather than inches. Moore did regain a little bit of velo in the 7^th inning, sitting 95-96 mph, as he may have been pushing a bit with the knowledge that it was likely his final frame.

The Breaks: I am not sure what Moore calls his breaking ball, but it has the velocity and trajectory of a slider, and Pitch f/x usually classifies it as such. The pitch has sharp, late break that comes in at a vicious angle to hitters. The slider’s tilt is surprisingly deep, especially given the lateness of pitch break, and virtually all of Moore’s nastiest offerings were slide pieces. Batters were sitting dead red on the fastball, and were left flailing when the low 80’s cliff diver took flight. Among the victims were Craig Gentry, who could only muster a check-swing followed by a look of disbelief after his first exposure to the slide, and Mike Napoli, who took a sweeping hack at an 83 mph breaker that started out wide of the zone prior to nose-diving toward his shoes in the fourth. Moore did hang a couple of breaking pitches, including one to Josh Hamilton that had the trajectory of a twisted curveball and which ended up getting ripped to the wall for a double.

The Change:  According to Baseball America’s 2011 Prospect Handbook, Moore’s changeup “has the makings of a plus pitch, though he needs to throw it more often.” The latter point was driven home in Game One of the ALDS, in which the rookie southpaw threw just a handful of off-speed pitches, and though such a sample size leaves little room for evaluation, the early returns suggest that the change has a long way to go before it can be considered an MLB-worthy offering. The pitch has a velocity differential of about 10 mph from his average fastball, which would be decent if not for the fact that his slider comes in at roughly the same speed. I was impressed by the movement on a few of the changeups that were unleashed in the game, though Moore lacked consistency or command of the pitch. Perhaps it was an off day for the change, or maybe he just wanted to stick to his strengths in such an important game, but he will need to make some improvements in order to maximize his effectiveness at the highest level.

The Approach:  Imagine that the strike zone is a 3×3 matrix, with numbers running one through nine like those on a telephone keypad. Matt Moore lives in sector #1, continuously pelting fastballs up and away from right-handed batters. Everything plays off of the heat, which Moore threw more than 70% of the time in Game One, including the first ten pitches of the ballgame. Moore often missed above the zone with his fastball, and he struggled to bust right-handers inside. He preferred to keep the slider down, but an early release resulted in a couple of hangers in Game One, and Moore had a tendency to leave the pitch wide of the strike zone. The changeup did not make an appearance until the second time through the order, but leadoff hitter Ian Kinsler saw a couple of cambio’s in his second plate appearance, indicating the use of a popular strategy in which pitchers will save secondary pitches in order to give batters different looks throughout the game. Moore went through some rough patches in the middle innings, but he intermixed the bad offerings with some dynamite pitch sequences that kept the Texas batsmen off balance.

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Mechanics

Balance: The rookie does a great job of maintaining balance throughout the delivery from first movement through release point. His head is positioned over the center-of-mass during a high leg lift, and stays there into foot strike. This dynamic balance culminates in excellent posture from foot strike through pitch release, which aids his command, control, and release point efficiency. This postural stabilization underlies a low-3/4 arm slot, which is common for pitchers with an upright spine and shoulders square to the target at release point.

Linear Elements: Moore gets his momentum moving in the right direction from the start of his delivery, though he has a pedestrian pace on his way to the plate. He is slow into leg lift, and only slightly picks up the momentum after reaching “the top” of his motion. This is an area where he has room for improvement, as many pitchers are able to find a “2^nd gear” after maximum leg lift, and such an adjustment would pay off greatly with respect to stride and release point distance. He has a closed stride, though he finishes near the centerline due to the fact that he starts on the third base side of the rubber, thus defying the conventional wisdom for lefties to create angle by starting on the first base side. At times he struggled to finish his delivery or achieve optimal release point extension, but that extension was helped by a strong glove position as well as the awesome posture.

Rotational Elements: Delayed rotation of the shoulder axis allows a pitcher’s hips to rotate after foot strike, thus increasing his hip-shoulder separation, which is a key component to pitch velocity. Moore earns high marks in each of these areas, utilizing a serious delay of trunk rotation in conjunction with heavy upper-body load, leading to exceptional torque and high-90’s fastballs. He also employs a strong hip-turn once the upper-body rotation kicks in, helping to whip the pitching arm through the hitter’s visual window with great rotational velocity.

Timing: Consistency of timing is the most integral piece of the mechanics equation, and it is often the last thing to develop for a pitcher. Case in point, Matt Moore looked strong in the first two frames against the Rangers, but his timing went in the bucket at times during the middle innings. The result was a bevy of pitches that either missed the mark or lacked the effectiveness of his earlier offerings, though Moore displayed the moxie to recover and make adjustments. Interestingly, the timing issues did not appear to stem from either the linear or the rotational elements of the delivery; Moore just seemed to lose his timing of when to let go of the baseball.

I rarely see this issue at the major league level, but Moore’s time signature appears to be relatively consistent from first movement to foot strike, into trunk rotation and even maximum external rotation of the throwing arm (a.k.a. the “arm-cocking” phase), only to watch the ball leave his hand a touch early or late. Typically, I can tell by the delivery whether a pitch is going to hit the target, miss arm-side or tail glove-side, but I was often surprised by the results of Moore’s pitches. It speaks to an issue of “touch” or “feel,” but the fact that Moore had a stunted follow-through on many of the off-target pitches indicates that he at least knows when something is amiss.

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Overview

It is nothing short of amazing that a kid with less than 10 MLB innings can shut down the Texas Rangers offense in Arlington in the first game of the postseason, particularly in the wake of such a dramatic sequence of events. Kelly Shoppach may have stolen some headlines with his sudden power surge in the 9-0 victory, but Matt Moore’s performance was the biggest story from the Rays’ perspective. It is exceedingly rare to find a 22-year old lefty with his combination of stuff and command, and his upside is measurable only by NASA. Moore is clearly ready to make an impact, and he has the ingredients to put together a string of dominance in the near future.

Moore looks primed for the Show and should burst onto the scene next season, but it will not be a surprise if the Rays allow him to toil in Durham for the first month or two. There is precedent in the form of rotation-mate David Price, who made his own October cameo back in 2008 with even greater fanfare, only to find himself in Durham for the first two months of the ‘09 season. Any reasons to keep Moore down on the farm would likely be financially motivated, but the team would be wise to consider the economic windfall of barely missing the postseason due to suboptimal allocation of talent, a lesson that Tampa nearly learned the hard way this season by holding back Desmond Jennings for the first four months. If the wunderkind fails to make the Opening Day roster, expect Rays fans to form a line out Andrew Friedman’s door, begging, “Please sir, we want some Moore!”

The last weeks of July are marked by packed bags and plane tickets, as a multitude of ballplayers experience a sudden change of address during the period between the All Star Game and the trade deadline. The guys grabbing the headlines are either veterans fishing for a contender or prospects that could be used as bait, but there has also been a recent wave of minor league reinforcements to infiltrate league rosters, with several batsmen in particular receiving the call to active duty.

High hopes are often heaped upon the shoulders of rookies, whether they are entrenched in critical roles for playoff-bound teams or just playing out the string on a club that’s built for the long haul. Nothing brings out the irrational exuberance in a baseball fan quite like a prospect making his debut, but the reality is that most of these players will fall short of their lofty expectations, at least in the early going, as very few hitters are able to solve the puzzle of major league pitching without a lengthy adjustment period.

Every spring, Kevin Goldstein ranks his top 100 prospects for Baseball Prospectus, and we can learn much about the difficulty of making the adjustment to the highest level of competition by taking a glance at how the best of those players have performed in their initial MLB trials. Consider the following list, which includes the top position players on KG’s list for 2011 that have seen big league playing time, including BP’s VORP numbers for positional context.

Mike Trout was Goldstein’s #2 overall prospect this spring, but the 19-year old was not expected to see the bigs until this September at the earliest. However, a perfect storm of eye-popping tools, savory stat lines, and injuries at the big league level produced a July callup for the center fielder. The jump has proven difficult for the teenager, but manager Mike Scioscia has been impressed with the kid despite the early struggles. The Halos denied the opportunity to send Trout back down to the minors after regular CF Peter Bourjos returned from injury, instead preferring to stick with the kid for an extended audition, though Trout has started just two games since Bourjos’ July 23^rd return.

#4 on the list was Domonic Brown, who was poised to jump ahead in the rookie of the year race with the RF job in Philadelphia on lockdown heading into Spring Training. Those plans were derailed by an early spring slump followed by a broken wrist, and his performance upon belated arrival has been subpar for a team with World Series aspirations. Alas, the Phils’ acquisition of Hunter Pence from Houston punched Brown’s ticket back to Lehigh Valley, where he will get “regular at bats,” which is code for “preparing to take over for Raul Ibanez in 2012.”

Of all the rookies on this list, Mike Moustakas has had the most frustrating initial taste of the Show. Mous was the most prolific home run threat in the minors last year, and his 2011 stat line from AAA Oklahoma included 44 RBI in 55 games, so it came as quite a shock when the third baseman managed just a single bomb and four RBI through his first 30 games in the bigs. The homer came in just his second major league game, and Moustakas reached base multiple times in each of his first four contests, setting up the KC fan base for an Alex Gordon-level disappointment over the next month. He endured a painful 2-for-47 stretch book-ended around the All Star Game, but the Royals have opted to stick by their power prodigy, at least for the time being, and his 6 RBI in the last 8 games shine a glimmer of hope at the end of the tunnel.

Teammate Eric Hosmer is next on the list at #12, and though he trails Moustakas in both age and minor league experience, the 21-year old Hosmer was actually the first of the pair to get the call. The first baseman has enjoyed a much more lucrative experience than his colleague across the Royal diamond; with almost a half-season under his belt, the #3 overall pick from the 2008 draft has established a 162-game pace of 20+ homers and 100 RBI, while experiencing the ups and downs that are characteristic of a young player as he adjusts to life on the big stage. After a monster showing in his opening week, Hosmer went through a rough patch as the league made adjustments, but now he is back on the upswing and enjoying a 10-game hitting streak entering today’s games.

Freddie Freeman was the odds-on preseason favorite for NL rookie of the year, thanks to the injury to Brown as well as his reserved spot at first base for Atlanta. The Braves stuck by Freeman as he labored through April at a .217/.313/.380 clip, allowing the rookie to gain the experience of more plate appearances in order to learn pitch recognition at the major league level. They have been rewarded with an OPS that has increased in every month of the season, culminating in a .366/.440/.614 line for Freeman in July. The contending Braves are desperately seeking offensive help at the deadline, but one spot where they are set is at the first bag, and it is safe to say that Freeman is still a top contender for ROTY, seeing as he leads all rookie position players in VORP.

The Mariners’ Dustin Ackley has just one-third of the plate appearances of Freeman, yet he has already accumulated 80% of the VORP, with a total that is good enough to measure fourth on the rookie VORP list for hitters. The score is due as much to his second base eligibility as his batting line, but the former Golden Spikes Award finalist has already quieted many of the doubts about his ability to hit for power in the bigs. In fact, the .543 slugging percentage and .233 ISO through his first 35 games are 60 points higher than his best marks in the minors. Ackley has moved quickly through the system, needing just 200 minor league games before earning his promotion to the Show, which leaves open the possibility that he is just scratching the surface of his considerable talent.

The concept of “regular at bats” is a common theme among rookies and prospects, as it makes little sense to have a young player waste such valuable development time collecting splinters, but such is the case with the world champion Giants and their handling of prized young slugger Brandon Belt. Perhaps the biggest roster surprise of Opening Day was Belt’s presence in the San Francisco lineup, as the Giants eschewed the Super Two shenanigans that kept Buster Posey in the minors through late May of last year. It was all uphill from there, as the Giants have played Belt like a yo-yo between San Francisco and Fresno, and from first base to the outfield, all sandwiched around his recovery from a fractured wrist. The acquisition of Carlos Beltran has apparently put Belt on the Travis Ishikawa program from last season, which calls for a couple of spot starts per week in order to give the vets a rest. Continuing to write Aubrey Huff’s name on the lineup card in lieu of Belt’s is damaging not only to the rook’s development, but also to the team’s chances of repeating last season’s success.

A total of 17 of the position players from Kevin Goldstein’s pre-season Top 100 Prospects have seen MLB playing time this year, and a handful of players have already ascended to the majors from a recent snapshot of the mid-season Top 50 prospects. However, fans and fantasy players should heed the lessons of rookie predecessors and temper expectations for the initial performances of pre-season #18 Desmond Jennings and #28 Jason Kipnis, as well as diminutive rapid riser Jose Altuve. While those youngsters get their first taste of the majors, some teams are facing tough decisions with prospects that have had difficult debuts, and will be forced to weigh the least damaging option between crushing an ego with a demotion or letting a player take a further beating in the bigs.

It is often said that the Pacific Coast League is a “hitter’s league,” where the guys at the plate enjoy an advantage over their counterparts on the mound. The implication is that stats posted in the PCL need to be judged in context, especially when projecting future performance. A .300/.400/.500 slash line would be the mark of an MVP candidate in the majors, but in the PCL those ratios might not crack the top five on a given ballclub.

A key ingredient to the offensive explosion is that the league is filled with hitter havens that create hell on pitchers. Several of the home parks are conducive to inflated batting averages and power spikes, thanks to the desert-like conditions and high altitudes of PCL homes in Las Vegas, Reno, Albuquerque, Salt Lake City, Colorado Springs, and Tucson.

Consider the 2011 Tucson Padres. Their Kino Stadium home (formerly Electric Park) lies about a half-mile above sea level, and the dry Arizona heat turns the park into a pinball machine, such that it takes large grains of salt to digest the numbers. There are 14 players that have logged at least 100 AB for Tucson this year, and nine of those batters are hitting over .310 this season. Six players are slugging over .500, and five have an OPS greater than .950. Meanwhile, their team batting average of .298 is only good for fourth in the league.

A juiced environment could pose a developmental obstacle to any organization, but the Padres’ farmhands face the largest challenge. Not only do Padre prospects have to make the adjustment to facing the best pitchers on the planet, but they must also acclimate from a launching pad to the most stingy home park in the major leagues.

The issue is personified by first base prospect Anthony Rizzo, who has posted the highest numbers of any player during his time in Tucson, busting out a .365/.444/.715 line prior to his MLB callup. Rizzo was supposed to fit right into the spot left vacant by Adrian Gonzalez, but his first 100 AB’s left much to be desired, featuring a pitcher-esque .143 batting average and just a single homer. Rizzo was getting on base during his first couple of weeks, including 11 walks in his first 15 games, but he managed just four free passes in his last 20 games before the Pads pulled the plug.

Kyle Blanks is the latest graduate to book the flight to San Diego, and his AAA slash line of .351/.421/.716 is a near-match for Rizzo’s performance in Tucson. However, Blanks has the advantage of past experience playing in the catacomb of Petco Park, and he will likely avoid the extreme environmental shock that sucked the life out of Rizzo. Blanks is just 24 years old, and has the rare distinction of having hit better in Petco than on the road during his limited MLB experience, with an OPS split of .805 at home and .716 when away. Plus, he doesn’t carry the expectations of filling the shoes of the San Diego’s Golden Child.

The Padre problem is an extreme case, as many of the parent clubs for the other PCL bandboxes reside in similarly hitter-friendly parks in the bigs, with some going so far as to choose AAA ballparks from their own backyards. Colorado Springs is the feeder club for the Rockies, Texas-based Round Rock has served as the AAA affiliate of both the Rangers and the Astros, the Sacramento River Cats are just an hour’s drive down I-80 from Oakland, and up until 2008 Tucson was the AAA affiliate of the nearby Arizona Diamondbacks.

Incidentally, the D’Backs new AAA home is in Reno, where they are putting up the best offensive numbers in the PCL; the Reno Aces are hitting .318/.397/.535 as a team.