Popular perception is especially critical of Ramirez, and while some of that cynicism is due to Manny’s flippant persona, it is also easy to point to his sock-less 24-game cameo with the White Sox. Ramirez collected just a pair of extra-base hits in his 88 plate appearances on the South Side, including a single homer. Many have blamed his bat speed, though it seems a convenient label whenever an aging slugger has a particularly brutal stretch. The line of thinking follows that a slow bat on an older hitter marks the beginning of the end, especially in the post-steroid era. The PED suspensions on his record help to fuel the pessimism, and there is a long line of baseball purists who are eagerly anticipating the exit of “Manny being Manny.”

Ramirez may have had a slow bat in September, though the absence of data leaves us sifting through scouts’ quotes and writers’ anecdotes, in an environment where misinformation can spread like wildfire fueled by the Santa Ana winds of the internet. Bat speed is also volatile, and a poor month of performance can result from a number of factors.

Sometimes a slow bat is in fact the incarnation of baseball’s grim reaper, but there are plenty examples of post-prime sluggers who earned the “slow bat” tag one season, only to confound the pundits with a power surge the following year. Last season it was Vladimir Guerrero that proved he still had some ammo left in the old boomstick, 2009 saw Derrek Lee reverse the downtrend in his performance, and ‘08 was Carlos Delgado’s turn for redemption. We have seen the act before with Manny himself, whose .296/.388/.493 line as a 35-year old supposedly foretold his demise back in 2007. Ramirez responded with a .332/.430/.601 season the next year, carrying the Dodger offense after the cross-country trade that shipped him out of Boston. 

Older players are more vulnerable to the lingering effects of injuries, and many of the late power-spike hitters were coming off of seasons marred by trips to the disabled list. Manny Ramirez is no exception. He went on the DL in late June of last year with a .322/.412/.525 line, and came back for just a pair of games in mid-July before a bum hamstring sent him back to the shelf. Manny came back to the field on August 21^st, just in time to be dealt before the waiver-clearing trade deadline, and while his re-activation may have been premature, it was a necessity given that players on the DL cannot be traded.

Ramirez limped to the finish, but he now has an off-season of rest and rehab to get back into form. The guy has a career line of .313/.411/.586, and given the performance splits and the injury history, I wouldn’t put it past Manny to pull another .950 OPS season out of his bat bag. Even a repeat of his .300/.410/.460 ratios from 2010 would be worth much more than $2 million, despite the inevitable side effects of headaches and nausea.

The relative thievery of Ramirez is counterbalanced by the signing of fellow former Bostonian Johnny Damon, whose $5.25 million contract includes attendance-based incentives that could earn him enough dough to triple up Manny’s salary. The 2010 salaries came in at $20 million for Manny and $8 million for Damon, yet they changed places on the financial totem pole despite being represented by the same super-agent. Damon is taking a pay cut of almost 35% when compared to last season, a number that pales in comparison to the 90% discount on Mr. Ramirez. Both players were signed on the same day by the same team, mitigating any market factors that might account for the financial discrepancy.

Damon’s offensive ceiling is probably close to his career line of .287/.355/.436, though he lacks the speed that was used to support those numbers for most of his career. Johnny’s got his glove, but the leather is mitigated by a noodle arm, one that begs the question of whether he is a natural left-hander. Damon is useful as a plug-n-chug player who can fill in at LF, 1B, DH, or CF in an emergency. He brings a well-rounded offensive package to the table, though his bat falls short of the expectations that go along with playing a corner spot on a contender.

Damon might just be a placeholder until Desmond Jennings is ready for the Show, with plans to move into the 4^th outfielder role that best fits Damon’s skill set. Joe Maddon also has the flexibility to call up Jennings as an injury replacement for virtually any position player, allowing him to displace the versatile Ben Zobrist to man the position of need, all of which is made possible by the presence of the Caveman.

Tampa has a history of signing Hall-worthy hitters in the twilight of their careers, and though neither Manny nor Johnny are locks for Cooperstown, both players can help their respective cases with another playoff run. The veterans bring serious playoff experience and extensive knowledge of the division to a novice clubhouse. Late-career performance can behave more like a seismograph than a normal curve, and the offensive contributions of these hired guns could have a substantial impact on the AL East race. With the lineup basically set, the Rays can turn their focus to the Rule 4 draft, where they hold 12 of the first 89 picks next June.

(thanks again to Cot’s salary database)

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The Giants’ payroll has never cleared $100 million, but Brian Sabean has stated that the World Series champs will increase the budget by 20% for next season, and a proactive shopping spree has already put them on target for close to $120 million. The Gigantes wasted no time in signing one of their postseason heroes, inking first baseman Aubrey Huff for 2 years and $22 million. Huff was a boon for SF last season, producing a career year for a mere $3 million, but the 33-year old will have a much harder time living up to the cost of his new deal. The Giants made up for that potential gaffe when they re-signed Pat Burrell to stay home for a cool $1 million, representing a 89% pay cut for the former Bellarmine Prep star.

The signing of Miguel Tejada was another low-risk move, getting a one-year deal for $6.5 million to add an Uribe-esque bat to play shortstop at a discount. The defensive hit from Uribe to Tejada could prove costly, though, with potentially brutal range on the left side of the diamond depending on who mans the hot corner. The roster is set if the team trusts third base to the Panda or Mark DeRosa, and any remaining funds could be funneled into the bonus portion of a contract extension to Tim Lincecum.

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The loss of Adrian Gonzalez is a crushing blow to the Friar fan base, one that has just started to recover from the emotional letdown of a miracle season gone sour in the final game of regulation, suffering the ultimate river card versus the eventual World Series champs. Gonzalez was a ridiculous fan favorite, a hometown hero and the only Padre to conquer the pit bull that is Petco.  At the time of the trade, Gonzalez was the only player on the San Diego roster with a guaranteed contract for 2011, and the deal robbed a boy scout roster of their scout leader. The Pads received some great prospects, but the trade was lacking in MLB-ready talent. Fans will have to wait until 2012-13 to see any return on the emotional investment in their prodigal son.

The most significant free agent signing has been Aaron Harang, whose $3.5 million contract was processed on the same day as the big trade. The team will sort through a bucket of arbitration cases, of which Heath Bell and Ryan Ludwick could put a decent dent in the payroll. Bell is a prime trade candidate, as the next domino to fall due to his status as a third-year arbitration guy, his gaudy save totals, and the quality replacements that the Pads have on hand. The numbers do not reflect the Jason Bartlett trade, which is currently in a holding pattern above the hot stove, but we can add about $6 million to the arbitration line if the deal goes through. 

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The big news was Troy Tulowitzki’s shiny new contract, a $157 million pact that locks down the shortstop position for the purple pinstripes for the next decade. The Rockies re-upped another player the day prior to Tulo’s deal, giving Jorge de la Rosa a lucrative contract that will earn him more than $9 million in 2011. Colorado has also shored up the infield with the additions of Jose Lopez and Ty Wigginton, acquiring two players with multi-position flexibility and plate approaches that should fit well in Coors. 

The Rocks spent a team record $85 million in 2010, but Tulowitzki’s contract extension is an indication that the foot is still on the gas pedal. The lineup is in pretty good shape, and the team could focus their remaining funds on the mound. Pitching depth is critical for every team, but it takes on added importance in Colorado, where the mix of high-scoring games and altitude create a maelstrom of pitch counts and fatigue. The volatile thin-air environment produces a wide range of potential outcomes for the Rockies on an annual basis, but the long-term future of Denver is brightened by the emergence of Ubaldo Jimenez and Carlos Gonzalez as franchise anchors.

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In sharp contrast to last year, L.A. has been busy on the free agent front this off-season. The Dodgers shored up the pitching staff with the acquisition of Ted Lilly and the re-signing of Hiroki Kuroda, and bolstered the infield with the inter-division theft of Juan Uribe. The above figures include the 3-year, $12 million deal that the Dodgers recently handed to Matt Guerrier, a contract that pays the southpaw just $1.5 million next season before bumping up to $4.75 million for each of the next 2 years, plus a $1 million signing bonus that is deferred until 2014.

The Guerrier contract might sound complicated, but such roster shenanigans are par for the McCourts these days. The Dodgers also staggered the payments to Uribe, with $5 million due in 2011, $8 million in 2012 and $7 million in 2013 (with another $1 million deferred until 2014). Lilly’s bonus pays $0.5 million in 2011, but triples to $1.5 million in ‘12 and ’13. Kuroda’s contract has been reported at one year and $12 million, but the $4 million bonus attached to the deal will not be paid out until 2012-13. The widely-publicized McCourt divorce has been blamed as the main culprit behind the fiscal shuffle, but it certainly doesn’t help that L.A. will pay $10 million in 2011 dollars to three outfielders who are no longer with the team, with a 3-headed albatross of Manny Ramirez, Andruw Jones, and Juan Pierre.   

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The major positional needs have already been filled for most of the NL West, and the rosters are nearly set for Opening Day. The World Series trophy is locked up in S.F., but the Giants have a daunting road back to the big dance, a road that leads directly through Philadelphia. 

The list of leftovers includes a few of the greatest mashers of the past decade, including Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, and Jim Thome. The obscenely wealthy Magglio Ordonez wants to prove himself worthy of another multi-year contract, while Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon are planning their farewell tours. There are even a couple of guys that can don the leather, with Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche capable of playing some first base in case a National League club comes calling. 

Any number of scenarios could play out by Spring Training, with the volume of bats available and so many teams in need of a professional hitter. It’s anyone’s guess where the specific players will land, but here’s one guy’s hunch at how the game of musical DH’s will play out (free agents in bold):

Half the league is set, with the Twins, Indians, Blue Jays, Mariners, and the bi-colored pair of Sox all saddled with pricey commitments at the DH spot. The M’s also signed Jack Cust as insurance for the next Milton Bradley blowup, while the Royals signing of Jeff Francoeur opens the door to a platoon with Kila Ka’aihue. Baltimore would like to pencil Luke Scott in the DH spot, but his services might be required at first base unless the O’s make another trade or sign a veteran like Adam LaRoche.

The other half of the league is left wanting at the leatherless spot in the lineup.  

Detroit has dollars to spend, and the Tigers are looking for someone that can field a corner outfield spot on the days that Victor Martinez claims the DH role. Manny Ramirez is an outfielder in name only, but that might be good enough for a team that is willing to deploy Carlos Guillen at the keystone and V-Mart behind the dish. Los Tigres have the spending power to make even the mercurial Manny happy, if only for five minutes.

Frustrated at missing out on the big name outfielders, the Angels could go after Magglio Ordonez as a fallback option, though their funds are better spent on a third baseman. The team has already matched previous seasons’ payrolls, and rumored interest in Adrian Beltre and Rafael Soriano could preclude them from signing an outfielder/DH, but Ordonez would satisfy any need to relegate Juan Rivera to 4^th outfielder duties. Mike Napoli is slated to get a heavy dose of DH at bats in 2011, but manager Mike Scioscia covets his roster flexibility, and Magglio would further open the gamut of possibilities for day-to-day lineup construction.

The Yankees off-season will be defined by Cliff Lee, and failure to sign the southpaw might just put them on tilt. New York has the option to employ a job-share at catcher and DH, with Jorge Posada splitting duties with rookie Jesus Montero, that is if the team thinks that Montero can handle 50-60 games behind the plate. The Yanks could easily buffer the DH spot with a fourth outfielder, setting the stage for a reunion with Caveman Johnny Damon and the short right-field porch in Yankee Stadium.

The A’s interest in Hideki Matsui is hardly a secret, and the team could lock him up within the next 72 hours. Oakland is looking for a short-term solution, and Matsui can probably be had on a 1- or 2-year deal for a relatively modest sum. Matsui would be the biggest power threat in the Oakland lineup the minute he signs, which is more an indictment of the A’s ability to hit the long ball than any optimism toward Godzilla’s declining skills.

The Rays are on a tight budget this winter as they search for a hitter who can man first base on a regular basis, lest they feel that Dan Johnson is ready for full time duty. Derrek Lee is a candidate to return to the Sunshine State, and is just one year removed from a .306/.393/.579 season, though Tampa’s interest will depend on the price tag. Jim Thome represents the type of cost-benefit ratio that Andrew Friedman’s crew seeking, and he would continue the tradition of aging stars that perform their swan song in a Rays uniform, following the footsteps of Wade Boggs and Fred McGriff into the Florida sunset. Thome lacks defensive chops, but his humble contract demands would allow the team to sign another bargain bat (such as Troy Glaus), with DJ as a contingency plan for when the imports break down.

Vladimir Guerrero will surely find himself on an AL club by February, and the Rangers are a good bet to re-sign the resurgent swinger. The AL Champs may end up paying an amount close to the $9 million option that they declined on Vlad last month, based on the $8 million that Berkman got from St. Louis. Re-signing Cliff Lee is the team’s top priority, but if the Yankees win the auction then Texas could spend that $20-$25 million elsewhere. On a related note, the Rangers would be the perfect fit for Prince Fielder, as a team that could afford both the cost of an extension and the prospects to make a deal. The Rangers are no strangers to Scott Boras, and new owner Nolan Ryan might be the one man that can intimidate the super agent.

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Some of the big bats will find their way to the Senior Circuit, but there is no reason for an AL team to enter 2011 with a hole at the DH spot. There are plenty of cheap lottery tickets available, from Thome and Glaus to Andruw Jones, Brad Hawpe, Lyle Overbay, and Nick Johnson. The Yankees can’t sign everyone, though I wouldn’t put it past them to reel in a player based on a combination of tilt and spite, with delusional visions that a pinstriped Manny could haunt the Fenway faithful.