The Tampa Bay Rays exhausted their season to the final stroke before clinching the playoffs, and with top starters David Price and James Shields having pitched in the days prior, the Rays turned to a rookie pitcher to start Game One of the ALDS against the Rangers. Tampa possesses one of the front runners for the Rookie of the Year Award in hurler Jeremy Hellickson, yet Helix was not the rook in question; that pitcher was southpaw Matt Moore.

Baseball America ranked Moore just behind Hellickson at #2 on the Rays’ top prospect list entering the season, and Kevin Goldstein tabbed him as the top pitching prospect in baseball back in July. That said, this was a kid with all of 9.1 major league innings under his belt, including just a single major league start, a mark that set a record for playoff greenhorns. Moore shined in his lone start, blanking the Yankees over five innings with 11 of the 15 outs coming via the strikeout, and earning his first major league victory in the process. The other appearances in Moore’s cup of coffee came out of the ‘pen, where the left-hander struggled, much as predecessor Hellickson experienced last year.

Selected out of high school in the 8^th round of the 2007 draft, Moore has climbed the minor league ladder with great success, having led all of the minor leagues in strikeouts in both 2009 and ‘10. He has compiled a rate of 12.7 K’s per nine innings during his stretch in the minors, and last season’s total of 208 punchouts was the most in any minor league in the last nine years. The numbers have translated to the bigs, and Game One of the ALDS provided the opportunity to learn how the 6′2”, 200-lb left-hander makes so many batters take that long walk back to the dugout.

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Stuff

The Heat: Moore has a live fastball that was topping out at 98 mph on the TBS gun, and the heat consistently sat in the 96-98 mph range through the first two innings. In his Midseason Top 50, Goldstein observed that Moore had added a couple of ticks since last year, and the velocity plays up further when it is coming from a port-sider. KG also noted Moore’s improved command this season, a trait that is reflected in his shrunken walk rate and which addresses the one weakness in M&M’s game coming into 2011. The lefty throws lasers, though I was not overly impressed by the movement on his 4-seam fastball in Game One, and both velocity and command deteriorated as the game progressed. By the 6^th inning, Moore was sitting 92-94 with the fastball and struggling to hit his spots on a consistent basis, including a handful of pitches that missed Kelly Shoppach’s glove by feet rather than inches. Moore did regain a little bit of velo in the 7^th inning, sitting 95-96 mph, as he may have been pushing a bit with the knowledge that it was likely his final frame.

The Breaks: I am not sure what Moore calls his breaking ball, but it has the velocity and trajectory of a slider, and Pitch f/x usually classifies it as such. The pitch has sharp, late break that comes in at a vicious angle to hitters. The slider’s tilt is surprisingly deep, especially given the lateness of pitch break, and virtually all of Moore’s nastiest offerings were slide pieces. Batters were sitting dead red on the fastball, and were left flailing when the low 80’s cliff diver took flight. Among the victims were Craig Gentry, who could only muster a check-swing followed by a look of disbelief after his first exposure to the slide, and Mike Napoli, who took a sweeping hack at an 83 mph breaker that started out wide of the zone prior to nose-diving toward his shoes in the fourth. Moore did hang a couple of breaking pitches, including one to Josh Hamilton that had the trajectory of a twisted curveball and which ended up getting ripped to the wall for a double.

The Change:  According to Baseball America’s 2011 Prospect Handbook, Moore’s changeup “has the makings of a plus pitch, though he needs to throw it more often.” The latter point was driven home in Game One of the ALDS, in which the rookie southpaw threw just a handful of off-speed pitches, and though such a sample size leaves little room for evaluation, the early returns suggest that the change has a long way to go before it can be considered an MLB-worthy offering. The pitch has a velocity differential of about 10 mph from his average fastball, which would be decent if not for the fact that his slider comes in at roughly the same speed. I was impressed by the movement on a few of the changeups that were unleashed in the game, though Moore lacked consistency or command of the pitch. Perhaps it was an off day for the change, or maybe he just wanted to stick to his strengths in such an important game, but he will need to make some improvements in order to maximize his effectiveness at the highest level.

The Approach:  Imagine that the strike zone is a 3×3 matrix, with numbers running one through nine like those on a telephone keypad. Matt Moore lives in sector #1, continuously pelting fastballs up and away from right-handed batters. Everything plays off of the heat, which Moore threw more than 70% of the time in Game One, including the first ten pitches of the ballgame. Moore often missed above the zone with his fastball, and he struggled to bust right-handers inside. He preferred to keep the slider down, but an early release resulted in a couple of hangers in Game One, and Moore had a tendency to leave the pitch wide of the strike zone. The changeup did not make an appearance until the second time through the order, but leadoff hitter Ian Kinsler saw a couple of cambio’s in his second plate appearance, indicating the use of a popular strategy in which pitchers will save secondary pitches in order to give batters different looks throughout the game. Moore went through some rough patches in the middle innings, but he intermixed the bad offerings with some dynamite pitch sequences that kept the Texas batsmen off balance.

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Mechanics

Balance: The rookie does a great job of maintaining balance throughout the delivery from first movement through release point. His head is positioned over the center-of-mass during a high leg lift, and stays there into foot strike. This dynamic balance culminates in excellent posture from foot strike through pitch release, which aids his command, control, and release point efficiency. This postural stabilization underlies a low-3/4 arm slot, which is common for pitchers with an upright spine and shoulders square to the target at release point.

Linear Elements: Moore gets his momentum moving in the right direction from the start of his delivery, though he has a pedestrian pace on his way to the plate. He is slow into leg lift, and only slightly picks up the momentum after reaching “the top” of his motion. This is an area where he has room for improvement, as many pitchers are able to find a “2^nd gear” after maximum leg lift, and such an adjustment would pay off greatly with respect to stride and release point distance. He has a closed stride, though he finishes near the centerline due to the fact that he starts on the third base side of the rubber, thus defying the conventional wisdom for lefties to create angle by starting on the first base side. At times he struggled to finish his delivery or achieve optimal release point extension, but that extension was helped by a strong glove position as well as the awesome posture.

Rotational Elements: Delayed rotation of the shoulder axis allows a pitcher’s hips to rotate after foot strike, thus increasing his hip-shoulder separation, which is a key component to pitch velocity. Moore earns high marks in each of these areas, utilizing a serious delay of trunk rotation in conjunction with heavy upper-body load, leading to exceptional torque and high-90’s fastballs. He also employs a strong hip-turn once the upper-body rotation kicks in, helping to whip the pitching arm through the hitter’s visual window with great rotational velocity.

Timing: Consistency of timing is the most integral piece of the mechanics equation, and it is often the last thing to develop for a pitcher. Case in point, Matt Moore looked strong in the first two frames against the Rangers, but his timing went in the bucket at times during the middle innings. The result was a bevy of pitches that either missed the mark or lacked the effectiveness of his earlier offerings, though Moore displayed the moxie to recover and make adjustments. Interestingly, the timing issues did not appear to stem from either the linear or the rotational elements of the delivery; Moore just seemed to lose his timing of when to let go of the baseball.

I rarely see this issue at the major league level, but Moore’s time signature appears to be relatively consistent from first movement to foot strike, into trunk rotation and even maximum external rotation of the throwing arm (a.k.a. the “arm-cocking” phase), only to watch the ball leave his hand a touch early or late. Typically, I can tell by the delivery whether a pitch is going to hit the target, miss arm-side or tail glove-side, but I was often surprised by the results of Moore’s pitches. It speaks to an issue of “touch” or “feel,” but the fact that Moore had a stunted follow-through on many of the off-target pitches indicates that he at least knows when something is amiss.

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Overview

It is nothing short of amazing that a kid with less than 10 MLB innings can shut down the Texas Rangers offense in Arlington in the first game of the postseason, particularly in the wake of such a dramatic sequence of events. Kelly Shoppach may have stolen some headlines with his sudden power surge in the 9-0 victory, but Matt Moore’s performance was the biggest story from the Rays’ perspective. It is exceedingly rare to find a 22-year old lefty with his combination of stuff and command, and his upside is measurable only by NASA. Moore is clearly ready to make an impact, and he has the ingredients to put together a string of dominance in the near future.

Moore looks primed for the Show and should burst onto the scene next season, but it will not be a surprise if the Rays allow him to toil in Durham for the first month or two. There is precedent in the form of rotation-mate David Price, who made his own October cameo back in 2008 with even greater fanfare, only to find himself in Durham for the first two months of the ‘09 season. Any reasons to keep Moore down on the farm would likely be financially motivated, but the team would be wise to consider the economic windfall of barely missing the postseason due to suboptimal allocation of talent, a lesson that Tampa nearly learned the hard way this season by holding back Desmond Jennings for the first four months. If the wunderkind fails to make the Opening Day roster, expect Rays fans to form a line out Andrew Friedman’s door, begging, “Please sir, we want some Moore!”

After setting a record with four consecutive pitchers atop the 2011 draft board, the next group of teams chilled out on the arms and went searching for bats, with just one of the next seven picks hailing from the mound. The light switched back on with pick #12, and a total of 13 pitchers were chosen in a 17-pick span from the mid to late first round.

The second set of four pitchers from the 2011 draft represented numbers 7, 12, 14, and 15 overall. The cuatro featured a blend of high school and college players, yet they all fit the mold of the “ideal” pitcher’s frame, ranging from 6′3” to 6′6” and weighing in around 220 pounds. In fact, these four hurlers were all within 5 pounds of the 220 mark, and within 10 pounds of each other.

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#7 Archie Bradley, RHP, High School

Bradley was the D’Backs’ second pick of the first round, due to the compensation for failing to sign last year’s #6 pick, pitcher Barett Loux. Arizona double-dipped pitchers by following the choice of Trevor Bauer with the selection of Bradley, and though the D’Backs went both barrels on the mound, the players that they selected differ in age, experience, size, and approach. Similar to fellow high school hurler Dylan Bundy, Bradley is considered “polished” for his age and a “projectable arm” from the high school ranks given his ideal frame, whereas Bauer is a mini-“Freak” with an unorthodox style and a UCLA pedigree.

The mlb.com footage for Bradley is similar to the clips on MLB Network, with in-game video that includes warm-up tosses in addition to a couple of full speed deliveries. His postural stabilization appears to be solid at first glance, as Bradley finishes in a strong position, but freezing the video reveals a considerable spine tilt just prior to release point. The movement is subtle, and serves as an example of how our eyes can sometimes fool us when watching the game at full speed. The other aspects of Bradley’s delivery are just as difficult to grade, based on the apparent difference between his fastball mechanics and those of his breaking ball.

The video from mlb.com includes a set of pitches from an angle behind home plate, followed by a set of pitches from the first base side. All of the front-view pitches are curveballs, on which Bradley displays modest momentum and stride; yet the side-view clips appear to be fastballs based on the arm speed, exaggerated momentum and increase in stride length. The discrepancy is blatant, such that his in-game breaking ball mechanics were even slower than his fastball delivery on warmup pitches. It is not uncommon for a young pitcher to have off-speed body language when throwing off-speed pitches, but it is an issue that will need to be remedied long before Bradley reaches the majors.

On the plus side, Bradley exhibits consistent timing of the rotational elements of the delivery, and his strong balance and high leg lift provide the basis for high future grades with respect to posture and stride, each of which has a ripple effect on release point distance. Archie also has a closed stride that acts as another obstacle in achieving optimal extension at release point, and he struggles to “finish” a pitch due to releasing the baseball before his shoulders have squared up to the target.

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#12 Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas

The Brewers had two of the next four picks, with the second selection coming as compensation for their failure to sign last year’s 14^th overall pick, Dylan Covey. Their first choice was Texas right-hander Taylor Jungmann, whose mlb.com “video” resorts back to the panning picture technique, with the unwelcome addition of a running commentary that amounts to little more than a chain of pitching cliches. The pictures are minimally informative, giving us a glance at a couple of pitch grips and then topping it off with an intimidation shot of Jungmann that was taken just after release point. MLB Network makes up the difference with a trio of pitches from his game action at Texas, though the fact that all three offerings were curveballs opens up a box of caveats, (exemplified by Archie Bradley).

Jungman is tall at 6′6”, and he remains upright to the point of being a bit stiff through much of the delivery. He also features a late posture change that is subtle, like that of Bradley, though not as extreme. The Texas righty has a “smooth” but slow delivery from first movement to foot strike, with little momentum resulting in a very short stride for a pitcher of his size. He displays excellent hip-shoulder separation that is the direct result of his delay of upper body rotation after foot strike, which allows the hips to rotate and further increases torque.

Jungmann takes some advantage of his height with respect to creating downward plane, though he exhibits a trade off by sacrificing some posture to create an artificially high arm slot. The strategy helps to add depth to the curveball, but it also limits the right-hander’s extension at release point. One potential red flag is that Jungmann appears to spin the curveball with a twist of the wrist near release point, and though it is impossible to determine with any certainty on a 32 fps video feed, there is certainly some type of manipulation of the pitch beyond typical supination. I would need to see some fastballs to make a fair comparison, but I can’t imagine that his heater involves the same arm action.

Twister curves are lethal to a pitcher’s arm, as plenty of unknowing Little Leaguers have learned over the last couple decades. Further, a manipulated curve ball is typically easy to read, as it often traces a different trajectory out of hand than a supinated curve, and is also easy to distinguish from a fastball flight path. Jungmann appears to avoid the latter issue, as his curve does not follow the typical path of a twister, but the injury risk remains when throwing a twisted pitch. The Brewers better hope that the kid can make some adjustments without sacrificing the effectiveness of his most potent weapon.

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#14 Jose Fernandez, RHP, High School

The Marlins have a geographical advantage with respect to scouting Fernandez, who has been pitching in Tampa since his arrival from Cuba two years ago. MLB Network’s coverage swung and missed on the footage for Fernandez, as the only available clips involved warmup tosses with the right-hander playing catch on flat ground, so it was refreshing to find that mlb.com had some in-game video. Fernandez is raw, with shaky balance throughout the delivery that results in rough posture and inconsistency at release point. He exhibits some “violence” in the pitching motion, to the point that some pitches look like he is just rearing back and throwing rocks, foregoing accuracy for the sake of velocity.

Fernandez starts off slowly, but it is a point in his favor that first movement is directed toward the target. He points the glove toward the sky and rears back as he approaches foot strike, and the delivery explodes from its slumber after the front foot hits the ground. When comparing the warmup footage on the MLB Network with the in-game clips from mlb.com, Fernandez stands out as a poignant example of a pitcher that can put together an efficient delivery in the bullpen, but who struggles to harness his mechanics when playing at full speed, which tends to become a problem when the adrenaline is pumping and the game is on the line.

There were four pitches from a live game, and Fernandez’s posture was brutal on three of them. The only decent delivery came on a breaking ball, which had much slower body language and arm speed than the hard stuff, effectively telegraphing the pitch with a greater discrepancy than Archie Bradley. I predict that Fernandez will profile best in the bullpen unless he can make a drastic change to his mechanical repertoire.

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#15 Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech

Milwaukee found themselves in a similar position as Arizona, possessing two picks in the top 15 and having already selected a moundsman with their top selection, and the Brew Crew continued the mimicry by taking their second arm of the draft. The Brewers hammered the point home by selecting a player with the exact same surname as the #2 choice of the D’Backs, thus erasing any doubts that GM Doug Melvin was sneaking a peak at Kevin Towers’ notes during class. Jed Bradley is distinguished by his left-handedness as well as his college pedigree, not to mention an extremely high intrinsic arm slot that allows the southpaw to generate heavy downward plane without sacrificing posture.

The picture collage at mlb.com shows a few aspects, such as height of leg lift and a solid glove position, but the MLB Network provided the precious in-game footage from Bradley’s time at Georgia Tech. JB has average momentum in the early phases of the delivery, despite a “stop at the top” of his motion in which he pauses as the lift leg reaches its apex. The momentum never really gets going beyond cruise control, and the resulting stride is mediocre at best. He has good posture that is above average for a lefty; many portsiders develop bad habits due to coaches that try to minimize platoon splits with an unnatural elevation of arm slot, but such an adjustment is unnecessary in his case.

Bradley’s balance is hampered by some early head drift, followed by a “drop and drive” delivery in which he lowers his center of gravity between maximum leg lift and foot strike. He also likes to “tuck the glove” by pulling the mitt into the body as he goes from maximum external rotation of the throwing arm into release point, underscoring the level of conventional coaching wisdom that Bradley has received throughout his baseball life. He and the rest of the pitchers in this particular Four of a Kind share the mechanical trait of superior timing with respect to shoulder rotation, though the warning lights are flashing due to a slight “inverted W” and an associated scapular load, as he tests the boundary between form and function.

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(Author’s Note: I hate typing the line, “compensation for failure,” but MLB has created a system that rewards teams for wasting a draft pick, and opens the window for some clubs to abuse that system. It’s no wonder that the agents wait until the final weekend to squeeze every last bit of leverage that remains in their power to negotiate.)

It is often said that the Pacific Coast League is a “hitter’s league,” where the guys at the plate enjoy an advantage over their counterparts on the mound. The implication is that stats posted in the PCL need to be judged in context, especially when projecting future performance. A .300/.400/.500 slash line would be the mark of an MVP candidate in the majors, but in the PCL those ratios might not crack the top five on a given ballclub.

A key ingredient to the offensive explosion is that the league is filled with hitter havens that create hell on pitchers. Several of the home parks are conducive to inflated batting averages and power spikes, thanks to the desert-like conditions and high altitudes of PCL homes in Las Vegas, Reno, Albuquerque, Salt Lake City, Colorado Springs, and Tucson.

Consider the 2011 Tucson Padres. Their Kino Stadium home (formerly Electric Park) lies about a half-mile above sea level, and the dry Arizona heat turns the park into a pinball machine, such that it takes large grains of salt to digest the numbers. There are 14 players that have logged at least 100 AB for Tucson this year, and nine of those batters are hitting over .310 this season. Six players are slugging over .500, and five have an OPS greater than .950. Meanwhile, their team batting average of .298 is only good for fourth in the league.

A juiced environment could pose a developmental obstacle to any organization, but the Padres’ farmhands face the largest challenge. Not only do Padre prospects have to make the adjustment to facing the best pitchers on the planet, but they must also acclimate from a launching pad to the most stingy home park in the major leagues.

The issue is personified by first base prospect Anthony Rizzo, who has posted the highest numbers of any player during his time in Tucson, busting out a .365/.444/.715 line prior to his MLB callup. Rizzo was supposed to fit right into the spot left vacant by Adrian Gonzalez, but his first 100 AB’s left much to be desired, featuring a pitcher-esque .143 batting average and just a single homer. Rizzo was getting on base during his first couple of weeks, including 11 walks in his first 15 games, but he managed just four free passes in his last 20 games before the Pads pulled the plug.

Kyle Blanks is the latest graduate to book the flight to San Diego, and his AAA slash line of .351/.421/.716 is a near-match for Rizzo’s performance in Tucson. However, Blanks has the advantage of past experience playing in the catacomb of Petco Park, and he will likely avoid the extreme environmental shock that sucked the life out of Rizzo. Blanks is just 24 years old, and has the rare distinction of having hit better in Petco than on the road during his limited MLB experience, with an OPS split of .805 at home and .716 when away. Plus, he doesn’t carry the expectations of filling the shoes of the San Diego’s Golden Child.

The Padre problem is an extreme case, as many of the parent clubs for the other PCL bandboxes reside in similarly hitter-friendly parks in the bigs, with some going so far as to choose AAA ballparks from their own backyards. Colorado Springs is the feeder club for the Rockies, Texas-based Round Rock has served as the AAA affiliate of both the Rangers and the Astros, the Sacramento River Cats are just an hour’s drive down I-80 from Oakland, and up until 2008 Tucson was the AAA affiliate of the nearby Arizona Diamondbacks.

Incidentally, the D’Backs new AAA home is in Reno, where they are putting up the best offensive numbers in the PCL; the Reno Aces are hitting .318/.397/.535 as a team.