Baseball Daily Digest » Prospect Views

MLPs are Here!

Rob McQuown — Thu, 08 Apr 2010 18:43:36 +0000

Top-level menu link (“MLPs”) now takes you directly to the 2010 MLPs: http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/ml/

The top 100 full-season hitters (as sorted by approximate Runs Created per Game) are now posted, including phenom Jason Heyward. Stay tuned for pitchers, more hitters, and more options for selecting the players you want to see.

MLPs – Major League Prime Projections – have been around at Baseball Daily Digest since the 2006 season, and are the output of Rob McQuown’s proprietary system for determining the “typical” prime-years season for a minor-league player. Since bad years are often the result of injuries, the system was designed to give results which are in line with the average of the “middle” three seasons between ages 26-30 for a ballplayer, and players can be expected to have seasons above and below those represented as a course of normal variance, but the lines provide good benchmarks for what to expect when a player develops fully.

Living in the Past – 2008 Prospects

Rob McQuown — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 23:43:55 +0000

In working on some stuff for the site, I ran into a link to a top-50 position players list I’d published 2 years ago: link. There are many ways to dissect something like this, and I think I can deservedly pat myself on the back for ranking Desmond Jennings the 7th-best position player prospect in baseball. But I had some clunkers, as well – such is the nature of prospecting, even for hitting – which is much easier to project than pitching.

Since Baseball America has all their historical top-100 lists available for free, I thought it would be interesting to compare the guys who made one or the other of their top 100 list and my top 50 position players list. Without further ado:

Baseball America pre-2008 Top 100 Prospects (excerpt):

Rob’s Top 50 Position Player Prospects, pre-2008 (excerpt):
(all comments are from 2008)

It’s sort of an interesting mixed bag. Obviously, Ellsbury and Andrus are significant misses, but figuring out fielding ability for minor-leaguers is very difficult. To note, Colby Rasmus just missed the “worst fielding centerfielders” list Jeff Sackman prepared after the 2006 season at baseballanalysts.com. And now, he’s regarded as being a very good defender. I think when I prepared this list, I was still bitter about being burned after buying into the hype on Yuniesky Betancourt’s supposedly superb fielding skills. When a guy is compared to Rey Ordonez on defense and wins “Defensive Player of the Year” in two different minor leagues… in the same year… it’s hard to envision such a guy being 20 runs worse (per season) than an average MLB shortstop on defense.

One player I did bump up for his defense was Jared Goedert, though reports were somewhat conflicting on that. Mostly, I figured that if a guy could hit .364/.475/.715 for 205 PA in his first exposure to full-season baseball, he was going to be a hitter, whether at second base, third base, or even if he got moved to the outfield. Well, high-A ball proved to be much more difficult for him, and between injuries and the advanced players in AA, he’s turned into a suspect hitter and has also moved back to third base.

Anyway, power projects, so the guys I rated more highly had a distinct power-hitting flavor. Some have failed to develop, like Goedert and Royster and Whittleman, while others have remained essentially on-track (Pettit, Logan Morrison), and others – Carter, Flowers, Blanks for example – have asserted themselves as future top-notch power hitters. Pablo “Big Panda” Sandoval is an interesting case. I honestly hadn’t remembered ranking him as a top-100 prospect, coming off a .287/.312/.476 in the California League. But he managed 49 extra base hits in that stint, with just 52 strikeouts (423 PA). This sort of combination of hitting the ball hard and avoiding strikeouts is one of the best indicators of future growth, and his MLP came out quite well despite the tepid stats and dearth of walks.

The Mini-Strasburg?

Eric SanInocencio — Tue, 12 May 2009 17:49:14 +0000

If you take a quick glance at any team’s board on draft day, you’ll learn that great baseball players can come from all ends of the globe. Unlike football and basketball, the National Pastime often sees it stars come from rural areas and smaller schools within the college landscape. While major universities have their fair share of major leaguers, so do the smaller ones, and that’s the case in every state of the union.

Names like Josh Willingham, Scott Shields, Todd Jones and Matt Joyce have all come from the Division II ranks, gaining moderate levels of success at the big time. Having played at this level myself and now working in the same realm, the number of cross-checkers and scouts present at games is more noticeable, and that’s no doubt a credit to the names mentioned above along with others who have paved the way.

This year, all the hoopla in the college game surrounds one player, or more specifically one right arm. Stephen Strasburg has been solidified as the top overall selection for about year, since he dominated the collegiate and Olympic game as a 19-year old in 2008. Deserving of all the hype, Strasburg owns a 98-mph fastball and tossed a no-hitter against Air Force just a week ago. Everyone knows that Strasburg is the top overall selection, but is there another arm in the division below putting up similar numbers? Perhaps. Let’s explore.

According to every major poll in Division II, the number one team in the country is Southern Arkansas University. SAU, located in Magnolia, Ark., is 49-9 overall and will host the NCAA South Regional this weekend. The Muleriders (yes that is their actual mascot) are hitting .335 as a team, but the biggest reason for their success lies in their ace, sophomore hurler Hayden Simpson.

Simpson’s story is very much like many you read about at the smaller levels of collegiate athletics. A two-sport star at Magnolia High School (Ark.), his smaller statute (6-0, 170) kept many of the bigger schools out of the recruiting picture. Simpson was also a star quarterback as a prepster, leading his team to a top ranking and a place in the state playoffs.

Only through a chance meeting did he even consider his hometown university as the place to continue his career. It took the kind words of his next door neighbor to help him make a decision on just where he would attend school. That next door neighbor was SAU head baseball coach Allen Gum, who got Simpson to put his signature on the dotted line during the early signing period, cementing the foundation for what has been a stellar campaign.

First off, Simpson’s stuff is legit. Often times at the Division II level you see pitchers put up impressive numbers without the raw arsenal to justify a professional career. That’s not the case here. Having seen him pitch with my own eyes, his low 90s fastball and hammer curve are enough to be noticed, and puts him into discussion when it comes to pitchers that should be drafted. The numbers, however, speak for themselves.

As a freshman, he was perfect, literally. He went 10-0 in 17 appearances. Despite the fact that he didn’t become a full-time starter until two-thirds of the season was gone, he still led the team in victories (10), earned runs allowed (24) and opponents batting average against (.212). During a seven-game stretch to close out the season, the rookie allowed over two earned runs just once, while striking out 38 and picking up five victories.

In his final start of the year, Simpson threw eight innings of one-run ball against Texas A&M-Kingsville in the NCAA Tournament, striking out seven and walking just two. That performance earned him a unanimous vote of GSC Freshman of the Year, along with All-GSC First Team honors. With all the early success as a freshman, the dreaded sophomore slump seemed inevitable. The perfect record and ERA numbers would be tough to match, and the league would have a second look at him. That didn’t happen though, Simpson got better.

All he did this season was go 11-1, dropping his ERA a full run to 2.39. Simpson is now 21-1 in 23 career starts, and the peripherals were even more dominant in 2009. The righty tossed 101.2 frames, allowing just 27 earned runs. Opponents hit .180 off of him, and he struck 119 batters on the year. He failed to go six innings or more in just three outings, and had 10 or more punch-outs in five games. Simpson threw six complete games (!) and four shutouts, defeating five ranked teams on the year.

Again saving his best for last, he threw a complete game shutout on three days rest to defeat Valdosta State in the GSC Championship. He allowed just three hits in that contest, striking out seven and defeating VSU for the second time in the tournament, earning MVP honors.

This is the same Valdosta State squad that leads the NCAA and set a GSC record for homeruns in a season with 108. VSU had two hitters over .415 on the year, and scored double digits as a team 26 times this year. There bats were silenced by Simpson, who is earning the moniker of “Little Strasburg” around Division II circles.

His career totals are outstanding. 21-1 record, 164.2 innings pitched, 41 earned runs allowed, 2.79 ERA. Simpson has 179 strikeouts to just 75 walks, a 2.38 k/bb ratio. Opponents are hitting under .200 against him, and he has given up only 28 extra base hits in two years. The awards keep coming. Two-time First Team All-GSC, National Pitcher of the Week, GSC Tournament MVP. Simply amazing.

When first trying to explain his mechanics and delivery to a friend, another slight body with a powerful arm jumped to mind. Tim Lincecum, who is generously listed at 5-11 and 170 pounds, fits the physical comparison to SAU’s Simpson. Their body structure is similar, and Simpson even contorts his body to some degree in the same manner as Lincecum.

While he doesn’t have the pure stuff of the reigning Cy Young Award winner, the comparison is valid in part due to the similarities listed above. As I witnessed, there were scouts in attendance for his starts at the GSC Tournament, so Simpson in on the radar.

How high could he go? I have no idea, but with one more year in Magnolia, Ark., and another round of stellar numbers he could continue to climb up the charts. The highest ever draft selection in GSC history was Valdosta State’s Jason Bulger, who went 22^nd to the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2001.

I think that record is safe, but who knows? Maybe Simpson’s named will be called earlier than we all think. The numbers say that it should.