In 2009, Hoffman threw his fastball 51.4% of the time and his change up 34.5% of the time.  In 2010, Hoffman’s gone to the fastball 69.8% and the change up just 19.4%  (see chart).  The speed of his fastball in 2010 is just .01mph different than it was in 2009 and the vertical and horizontal movement are nearly identical… The root of Hoffman’s struggles in 2010 is not the pitches themselves, it’s the amount he’s throwing them.

Fantasy owners shouldn’t worry just yet.  Hoffman’s manager Ken Macha was quoted as saying, “”He’s the all-time saves leader.”  I guess you can’t beat that but at age 42, Hoffman’s effectiveness may be looked at more closely than it would have in the past.  To compound the situation, Brewers reliever Carlos Villanueva has started off the season as the most dominant man in the Brewers pen with 11 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 14 K… Closer material.  Change won’t happen overnight but when it does, Villanueva has put up the best numbers out of any Brewer reliever and already owns 5 career saves.  Fantasy owners may want to add Villanueva if they’re in need of some saves but if they don’t have the roster spot to give up, they should monitor the situation closely for any news of a change.

Here’s an updated look at the standings:

With three weeks under our belts, we’re beginning to see who’s for real, who’s off to a slow start, and who’s looking to be the big surprises in 2010.  Matt Kemp continues to carry my team and has posted outstanding numbers in his first 63 AB’s in 2010.  According to the Bloomberg Sports Fantasy tool, Kemp is ranked 5th according to their B-Rank metric.  Here’s a look at Kemp’s Bloomberg player card (see left) with his year to date stats.  According to Kemp’s player card, he is listed as the #1 CF.  It also lists his lifetime average against his next opponent, the Washington Nationals.  The Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Tool also shows you how a player has progressed through the season in different stats.  In this instance, we’ll look at Kemp’s batting average so far in 2010.  This is a great tool when trying to find players you need to give you a bump in certain categories.  In Kemp’s case, he’s been trending upward since the beginning of the season in batting average…If I were looking for a player on a hot streak in a certain stat, this tool would be a great help. This will be a great asset later in the season when a player has more at bats and the data is more reliable.

Looking at the breakdown of overall points in the standings, the two areas weakness for my team are stolen bases and saves.  I’m currently getting just 4 points in SB and 7 in saves.  I’m doing great in all the other stats but if  I would choose an area for improvement, these two would be it.   When you’re planning out your team and basing it on the its current and expected performance, I always aim to be the third best in a stat.  More often than not, you’ll get enough point being in 3rd in every stat to lead the league overall.  Leading in a category helps but if you have 9 points of improvement between you and the leader in a stat, you can gain a lot in a tight race like the one i’m right now.

Looking at the free agent list, there’s not much out there in the steals or saves categories.  Top 3 in steals are Chris Getz, who’s on the DL, Ronny Cedeno, who has decent numbers but not much power, and lastly, Mike McCoy who won’t be a full time player with Toronto with Aaron Hill manning the full time position and coming off the DL today.   Second base has been a black hole on my team so far this year since Ian Kinsler hit the DL at the beginning of the season.  I’ve added a number of different people who have all contributed nothing to my team in the first two weeks.  This week it’s been Cristian Guzman at the 2B position and he’s done a pretty good job for me giving me 5 runs, 3 RBI, 1 SB while hitting .385…not bad for a waiver wire pick up.  Soon enough Kinsler will be back and he’ll give me my much needed boost in stolen bases. 

Looking at Kinsler’s projected 2010 stats, you’ll see that he’s in line to steal 31 bases.  With 3 weeks of the season already over, I’ll have to discount that number for the lost playing time and should expect about 25 stolen bases for the rest of the season assuming that he comes back as scheduled.  It’s a lot to bank on an oft injured player like Kinsler, but I’m putting my money in his corner to give me that boost in SB and over all production at second base that I need.

Saves are a different story…as many of you can assume, there’s no closers out there on waivers and the only way to get a boost in saves is for my closers to have more opportunities or for me to make a trade.  Currently, my closers are Papelbon and Soriano who have combined for 7 saves so far in 2010.  With the Red Sox off to a slow start and the Tampa Bay Rays outscoring their opponents 93-54, there haven’t been many opportunities for saves from this bunch.  Their time will come though and at the end of the season I should be doing okay in this category.  I think it’s safe to assume that these guys will get their saves and eventually one of the closers out there will either get hurt or lose their job just as they do every year.  Time should fix both of my teams problems so my plan as of now is to just sit tight and wait it out.  See everyone next week!

Well we’re into the third week of the season and I’m sitting pretty in the catbird seat at #1 with a slight lead.  I have to say that I had a pretty good draft to be having this good of a start to the season.   Things didn’t start off great though as Ian Kinsler hit the DL and I was left scrambling for a second baseman. There wasn’t much out there on the waiver wire,  so I added Kaz Matsui who’s been gracious enough to go 0-13 with no production anywhere for me in his first week.  Despite all that, my team has been carried by Matt Kemp so far and believe it or not, Magglio Ordonez has been a big surprise so far this year offensively.  On the pitching side, Josh Johnson and Jonathan Sanchez have racked up 34 K’s for me in the last week while Matt Garza has put up back to back solid outings.  I have the Bloomberg Fantasy Tool to thank..

Using the Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Tool (free 7 Day Trial going on now), I can look to see how my team is doing compared to the rest of the Majors. It also give me info on who my highest rated players are according to their “B-Rank”, while also breaking down my players with a 5×5 score.  The Bloomberg tool also gives me a full ranking of my team that can be viewed as a whole, or by pitchers and batters.  The rankings show a consolidated ranking of the player along with a news blurb of the most recent headlines on the player you’ve selected. In this instance I’ve selected Matt Kemp.

The tabs on the right show the players B-Rank, 5×5 score, Avg. Draft and tier (5 star player) and the number of recent articles about the player.  These tabs can be clicked on, allowing the user to get more information if desired.

The Bloomberg Tool also includes a “Draft Mode” that allows you to add all of your drafted players as the draft goes on and will project our your teams final numbers.  The user can see how adding one player over another will affect their season and it was really helpful in helping me decide who to draft over who.  For 2010, I loaded in my roster for my team, The Great Hambino and here’s what it came up with:

A fantasy manager can use these numbers to help decide the areas that they are strong in, area of surplus, and areas of weakness.  Using the typical numbers from a 15 team 5×5 roto league, and a winning score of 94, here is a rough estimate of what you’d need to win..

Offense:Runs: 843.5, Home Runs: 214.5, RBI: 815, Stolen Bases:  144.5, Average: .2925

Pitching:Wins: 81.5, Saves: 104.5, K’s: 1061, ERA: 3.695, WHIP: 1.255

From what my projections are, I have an abundance of  offense but am lacking in Saves, ERA, and WHIP.  This information is critical to have at the get go so that you can plan to improve the stats you’re weak in early in the season by dealing from strength.  For me, I’m going to stick with what I have for now and see how the season unfolds.  It’s early so players who are off to a hot start should be monitored to see if the numbers they’re putting up are sustainable or if you can expect them to regress back to the mean as they play more games.   I’ll see you all next week when I take a look at the BDD Roto League after another week of games.  Questions or comments can be left in the comment section or by sending me an email at: mathew.sisson@gmail.com.