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	<title>Baseball Daily Digest &#187; Matt Gelfand</title>
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		<title>You&#8217;ve Got to Feel for Khalil</title>
		<link>http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/2010/02/25/youve-got-to-feel-for-kahlil/</link>
		<comments>http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/2010/02/25/youve-got-to-feel-for-kahlil/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Feb 2010 01:54:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Matt Gelfand</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/?p=12763</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Kahlil Greene, former San Dieo Padres prospect, had his contract voided by the Texas Rangers on Thursday.  His ongoing battle with social anxiety disorder has flipped his career upside down.  ]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It was reported today that the Texas Rangers voided IF Khalil Greene’s contract, casting serious doubts over whether Greene will play again this year.</p>
<p>Only Greene wasn&#8217;t released because of nagging injuries, age, or terribly declining performance &#8211; but rather because his head&#8217;s just not in the right place.</p>
<p>Rangers General Manager Jon Daniels justified Greene&#8217;s release by saying the decision was made due to a &#8220;recurrence of issues he&#8217;s dealt with in the past.&#8221;  The &#8220;issues&#8221; Daniels alluded to is social anxiety disorder &#8211; a malady that landed the 30 year-old utility infielder on the DL twice last season.</p>
<p>Greene, a former Padres prospect with tons of promise, was only two seasons removed from a career year in which he hit .254 with 27 HR and 97 RBI for San Diego.  He would see a sharp decline in 2008, his final season with the Padres, and again in 2009 with St. Louis, as he struggled to keep his average above the Mendoza line.  He finished with just nine home runs in 239 at bats.</p>
<p>With his anxiety issues now public, the pressure on Greene to overcome the stigma that all of a sudden accompanied him must&#8217;ve been unbearable.</p>
<p>Greene would ink a one-year deal for a mere $750,000 with the Rangers this past off-season, but Daniels must have felt Greene posed too much of a risk to be paid when he seemingly could hit the DL at any time.  Thus, Greene&#8217;s career in Texas was over before it ever began.  <a href="http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100225&amp;content_id=8137514&amp;vkey=news_tex&amp;fext=.jsp&amp;c_id=tex">MLB.com reported that Greene had been in Phoenix and was preparing to report to the Rangers&#8217; training camp but later learned Greene was not going to</a>.</p>
<p>Can Greene recover?  It&#8217;s hard to say.  At 30 years old, his window is closing, and the torment he must feel to have lost his job in the Majors due to insurmountable mental pressure &#8211; as opposed to eroding physical skills &#8211; is mind boggling.</p>
<p>Greene&#8217;s certainly not the only Major Leaguer to see his performance suffer due to mental illness, and it certainly doesn&#8217;t discriminate based on skill level either.</p>
<p>Depression recently contributed to Oakland A&#8217;s ace Justin Duchscherer&#8217;s lost 2009 season. The two-time All-Star sported a 10-8 record and sparkling 2.54 ERA in 2008 but shoulder and back injuries sidelined him and a bout with clinical depression prolonged his recovery.</p>
<p>Dontrelle Willis, also a two-time All-Star, has seen a tragic fall from grace since his glory days with the Marlins, and was placed on the DL multiple times for anxiety disorder in 2009. At the ripe age of 28, when most players are entering their prime, &#8220;D-Train&#8217;s&#8221; career seems to be derailed.</p>
<p>Even Oakland A&#8217;s GM and <em>Moneyball </em>guru Billy Beane failed as a Major Leaguer because of anxiety issues dealing with being in the spotlight.  It&#8217;s worth noting that during the 2002 MLB Draft which the <em>Moneyball </em>story was based, Beane compiled a list of twenty players he&#8217;d draft in a &#8220;perfect world&#8221; if he had his pick of the litter, and guess who made it onto his list &#8211; Khalil Greene.</p>
<p>What&#8217;s even more frustrating about Greene&#8217;s situation is that his issue isn&#8217;t cut-and-dry.  He didn&#8217;t strain his hamstring or pull a muscle in his arm.  There&#8217;s no timetable for anxiety.  There&#8217;s no amount of ice, cortisone, or Vicodin that can help ease the pain that Greene&#8217;s most likely feeling.  The uncertain nature of when an anxiety issue has actually run its course puts a strain not only on the player to ignore symptoms and get back on the playing field as soon as possible, but on the owner as well, since mental illness is viewed as a touchy subject, and many owners must walk on eggshells to avoid accusations of unjust treatment.  A level of compassion must be shown for these players, but as always, baseball is a business, and if you&#8217;re stagnant for too long and no longer helping the team, you&#8217;re expendable.</p>
<p>Skill-wise, Greene still has a lot left in the tank, and I certainly wouldn&#8217;t put a nail in his MLB coffin just yet.</p>
<p>Now, if only he could get out of his own head.</p>
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		<title>Six Late-Round Bargains You Didn&#8217;t Already Know About</title>
		<link>http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/2010/02/22/six-late-round-bargains-you-didnt-already-know-about/</link>
		<comments>http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/2010/02/22/six-late-round-bargains-you-didnt-already-know-about/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Feb 2010 16:38:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Matt Gelfand</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/?p=12705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A closer look at six deep sleepers in fantasy baseball for 2010.  Win your league by snagging these players late in your draft.  ]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If there’s one word that makes fantasy owners ears perk up like Tiger Woods at a sex convention, its <em>sleeper</em>.  Everyone thinks they have a few gems, but usually keep their names under tighter wraps than Al Capone’s vault.  Most would rather lose a limb than divulge such top secret information to even their closest of confidants.  Why such secrecy?  Because the fact remains that there’s no sweeter pleasure for a fantasy owner than the “I told you so” moment of watching a player who he/she had been eyeing months before the season began (and probably reached for a few rounds too early in the draft) tear it up, to everyone’s envious surprise.  Do I fall into this category?  Certainly.  Everyone wants to be the one to find the next Albert Pujols.  It gives you that false sense of entitlement that makes you honestly believe you can be an MLB GM.</p>
<p>But I’ll spare you the old song and dance, because if you don’t already think Billy Butler, Jay Bruce, Andrew McCutcheon, Elvis Andrus, Julio Borbon, Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, and Jonny Cueto aren’t primed for breakout seasons, then you’re clearly not paying attention.  Below are your <em>deep </em>sleepers.  The sleepers you watch throughout spring training to see if you can catch an early glimpse of greatness.  The late-round gems who, ultimately, will win you your league.</p>
<p><strong>Carlos Ruiz</strong></p>
<p><strong><em>&#8216;09 Stats: 322 AB, 9 HR, 43 RBI, 3 SB, .255 BA</em></strong></p>
<p>My favorite sleeper entering 2010, only because it’s always such a crapshoot when trying to draft the right catcher.  Aside from the Mauers and McCanns of the world, it’s generally a weak position, and they’re production tends to be the most susceptible to deviation from year-to-year.  Plus there’s a certain comfort that comes from knowing you won’t be reaching for a catcher early, or reluctantly drafting an A.J Pierzynski-type in the later rounds when you absent-mindedly realize your catcher position is still empty.  In 12+ team leagues, you can most likely snag Ruiz in the latter rounds, considering the influx of young catcher talent will have many overly ambitious owners reaching for the Buster Posey’s/J.R. Towles’/Matt Weiters’ too early and often.</p>
<p><em>RotoWorld</em> rates him as the 25<sup>th</sup> ranked catcher.</p>
<p>Reasons I disagree:</p>
<p>-His walk rate has increased every year since ‘05</p>
<p>-He’s figured out lefties (.293 in ’09, compared to .212 in ’08).</p>
<p>-He’s the perfect age.</p>
<p>Baseball Forecaster’s Ed Spaulding writes (and I’m paraphrasing here):</p>
<p><em>Many catchers – particularly second line catchers have their best seasons late in their careers…catchers often get to the big leagues for their defense, their offensive skills often take longer to develop…heavy emphasis on learning the catching/defense/pitching side of the game often detracts from their time to learn the ins and outs of hitting…time spent behind the plate impacts their ability to recognize, and eventually hit, all kinds of pitches.</em></p>
<p>Ruiz is 31, and had the pleasure of catching Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee last season.  He has an excellent eye for a catcher, which means upper tier BA and power may be in store for 2010.</p>
<p><strong>Daniel Murphy:</strong></p>
<p><strong><em>&#8216;09 Stats: 508 AB, 12 HR, 63 RBI, 4 SB, .266 BA</em></strong></p>
<p>If you’re too busy solidifying you middle infield or pitching rotation and you miss out on the big 1B bats, Murphy is a relative unknown with 20-25 homer pop whom you can target in the latter rounds, and who has the upside to produce like a mid-round pick.</p>
<p>Reasons to be excited for 2010:</p>
<p>Second half stats: .283/.478/.796.  7 HR, 39 RBI.</p>
<p>He saw a massive power spike in the second half, and a very promising uptick in fly ball ratio.  And despite playing in a “pitcher’s park,” Citi Field’s shortest perch is the right field fence at 330 ft., which will certainly benefit the left-handed Murphy.  His relatively high fly ball rate means the power is there, and his elevated line drive rate in the second half may indicate his batting average may hover around .270-.280, rather than the .242 he hit during the first half.   With Carlos Delgado (hip surgery) on the shelf for out for at least four months, he’ll have first base all to himself, with only the underachieving Nick Evans behind him to take minimal at-bats.  This may be the 25 year-old’s time to shine, and I can hear the sleeper zzz’s from a mile away.</p>
<p><strong>Josh Willingham</strong>:</p>
<p><strong><em>&#8216;09 Stats: 427 AB, 24 HR, 61 RBI, 4 SB, .260 BA</em></strong></p>
<p>Willingham is a forgotten commodity in fantasy baseball.  People wrote him off after an injury-plagued ’08 season in which he completed a three-year decline from his stellar rookie season in Florida, and even spent some time in the minors.  Injuries slowed him down, and low BA earned him a ticket out of sunny Florida to the not quite as luminous Nationals.</p>
<p>Reasons to snag him late:</p>
<p>-He finally solved lefties in ’09 (.218 in ’07, .242 in ’08,  .300 in ‘09).</p>
<p>-He sported the highest OPS of career (.849).</p>
<p>-His consistently high hr/fb rate means the power is there; he’s simply been unlucky.</p>
<p>Just because he plays for the Nationals and isn’t named Zimmerman or Dunn doesn’t necessarily mean he’s free agent fodder.  He’s slated to hit fifth in the Nats lineup, in front of OBS freaks Nyjer Morgan, Christian Guzman, and Ryan Zimmerman.  So, any runs that Adam Dunn doesn’t drive in from the cleanup spot will be Willingham’s for the taking, meaning he should improve upon his paltry 61 RBI from ’09.  At worst, a repeat of ’06 (.277, 26 HR, 74 RBI) is in the cards.</p>
<p><strong>Jorge De La Rosa</strong></p>
<p><strong><em>&#8216;09 Stats: 185 IP, 16-9, 193 Ks, 4.38 ERA, 1.38 WHIP</em></strong></p>
<p>Yes, just hearing the name brings visions of 5.00+ ERAs and control terrible enough to make WHIP-ped cream (Get it? No? Moving on…).</p>
<p>But a closer look reveals a quietly dominant pitcher finally harnessing his immense talent over the past two seasons.  He won 16 games last year (who knew?) and actually ranked ninth in the NL in strikeouts. While the Rockies have a clear No. 1 in Ubaldo Jimenez, the well traveled de la Rosa makes an intriguing case as their No. 2, after a surprisingly effective and under-the-radar 2009.</p>
<p>Although his ERA (4.38) leaves something to be desired, he sported an xERA under 4.00 for the second straight season (3.56 in ’09) meaning his surface numbers don’t tell the whole story as to how effective he really was.  He’s equipped with a cannon for an arm.  His high K-rate over the past two seasons seems to be the difference maker in de la Rosa finally realizing his potential, and at 29, he’s the perfect age to reach it.</p>
<p>Forget the stigma of being a Rockies pitcher; he keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average rate, although nothing too outlandish to assume he was simply getting lucky.  WHIP has improved every season since ’05 (2.04, 1.66, 1.64, 1.47, 1.38), which means the best may be yet to come.</p>
<p><strong>Luke Hochevar</strong></p>
<p><strong>&#8216;<em>09 Stats: 191 IP, 12-14, 134 Ks, 5.39 ERA, 1.46 WHIP</em></strong></p>
<p>Hochevar is probably more of a household name than most due to an unexpectedly remarkable first half (8-4, 3.41 ERA in 93 IP) and some late-season salvaging of his otherwise vomit-inducing second half (4-10, 7.27 ERA in 98 IP), including a complete game, three-hit shutout of the White Sox on Sept. 18.</p>
<p>It’s worth noting, however, that the shutout turned out to be his only victory in the second half.  He went a frightening 1-10 with an 8.21 ERA over his final 13 starts.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the 1<sup>st</sup> overall pick in the 2006 amateur draft is still on the verge.</p>
<p>Here’s why:</p>
<p>Age: He’s still only 26.  And although in the major leagues 26 may be considered elderly for a top prospect that has yet to reach his potential, there is still time to improve.</p>
<p>Despite the second half hit parade (.290 OBA), he developed a new out pitch (splitter), which may have led to some errant pitches he probably wanted back while he was trying to harness it.  His low second half strand rate means more likely than not he was unlucky, not fatally flawed.  Surprisingly, he showed upper-tier ability to get the ball over the plate and nearly doubled his strikeout totals from the first half (49 to 85).  Armed with an entire offseason to develop his splitter, a sub-4.00 ERA is certainly a possibility given his under-the-radar improvements.</p>
<p><strong>Jason Hammel</strong></p>
<p><em><strong>&#8216;09 Stats: 177 IP, 10-8, 133 Ks, 4.33 ERA, 1.39 WHIP</strong></em></p>
<p>I know, I know, it’s almost sacrilegious to endorse two Rockies pitchers on the same page, none of whom named Ubaldo.  But what can I say &#8211; an early round stud like Jimenez isn’t going to win you your league, although late round steal like Hammel might.</p>
<p>He doesn’t have a sexy name or sexy stats (and the jury’s out on whether or not he has a sexy wife), but the 27-year-old Hammel is a certifiable sleeper in 2010.</p>
<p>Here’s why:</p>
<p>His ERA has dipped exponentially since ’06 (6.10, 5.50, 4.60, 4.33), and he actually cracked a sub-4.00 ERA during the first half of last season (5-4, 3.93 ERA in 80 IP).  Like de la Rosa, he’s a true ground ball pitcher, which is always a plus (especially at Coors), thus he doesn’t allow the thin Colorado air to affect his pitches.  He has made noticeable improvements in his fly ball rate and hr/fly ball ratio, and unlike de la Rosa, Hammel has always been an effective strikeout pitcher, fanning over 100 in every season in which he’s pitched over 100 innings.</p>
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