LOS ANGELES DODGERS

‘09 Record: 95-67, 1st in NL West
Pythagorean Record: 99-63 (-4 differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 82-80 (3rd in NL West)

2009 Recap

After being unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs in 2008 by the Phillies, the Dodgers came into 2009 looking to prove that Joe Torre and his well-orchestrated mix of young players and veterans were the real deal.  With the failed signings of Jason Schmidt, Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, and Nomar Garciaparra in their rear view mirror, the Dodger were focused on developing young talent and making financially responsible trades to compete.

The Dodgers could not have started 2009 any better.  They seemed to have an insurmountable lead within the first few weeks of the season with no likely in-division threats in sight.  But when the hammer came down on the team, in the form of a 50 game suspension for Manny Ramirez, it seemed to give the rest of the division hope.  Although they managed to hold strong record wise during Ramirez’s absence, a chink in the armor of the NL’s best had been shown.

Breakout seasons from Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier carried the Boys in Blue for much of the season.  Kemp has shown that he is a legitimate 5-tool player and one of baseball’s best outfielders, while Ethier managed to solidify himself as one of the better lefty power bats around.

Like every other Dodger team in recent memory, pitching carried the team through many points in the season, ranking first in team ERA.  In addition to Kemp and Ethier, Clayton Kershaw may have proven the most in 2009.  Although just 21 years of age, Kershaw posted a 2.79 ERA while allowing a .200 BAA, leading all MLB starters.

2010 Outlook

Since the news of Frank and Jamie McCourt’s divorce surfaced during the 2009 Playoffs, the Dodgers Organization has been held captive by legal battles and all too public revelations.  Ignored was the fact that they had just completed their second straight trip to the NLCS, a feat they had not accomplished in over 30 years.  All attention moved to the issues facing the McCourts and whether they would be forced to sell the team due to California’s strict divorce laws.

The story of the off-season has been the stagnant state of the front office.  While division rivals like the Padres and Diamondbacks have managed to remake their clubs, the Dodgers will be going in to 2010 looking a little thinner throughout the roster.  With the loss of Randy Wolf, John Garland, and Orlando Hudson, the Dodgers are veteran thin and uncertainty high.

Success in 2010 would surely add to the already Hall of Fame resume of Joe Torre, the 5^th winningest coach in Major League History.

‘10 Team

Catcher

Russell Martin has been the unquestioned leader of the Dodgers defense for the last three and a half seasons.  He led the league in innings caught in two out of the last three years, the other he finished second to Jason Kendall, and won the 2007 Gold Glove.  While his defensive ability has never been questioned, Martin’s offensive numbers have been trending downward the last three seasons.  Since winning the Silver Slugger in 2007, he has regressed in every major statistical category every year since.  Although his PECOTA projections show a bright outlook for 2010, his offensive output may depend on the amount days off he sees.

Infield

The 2009 Dodgers had plus defense all around the diamond, but with the departure of Orlando Hudson there is guaranteed to be regression.  While both Blake DeWitt and Ronnie Belliard can play respectable defense, there will be a drop off.  Offensively, both bring similar skill sets and production to the plate.  While Torre may opt for Belliard’s veteran experience, do not be surprised to see DeWitt playing everyday by season’s end.

When looking around the league for undervalued players throughout their careers, it does not take long to reach Rafael Furcal. He has quietly been one of the better offensive shortstops throughout his career and unquestionably one of the best pure bunters in the league.  On defense, with Furcal you pretty much see exactly what you are going to get: a guy with a killer arm who tends to make errors because he believes too much in his arm strength.  He quietly increased his range by an extraordinary amount in ‘09, a number that will likely regress in 2010.

A supposed defensive wiz at first, James Loney has proven to be an offensive letdown thus far with the Dodgers. Although he still has one of the prettiest swings in the league, Loney has trouble driving the ball with the sort of power that his frame would project.  2010 will be a telling year for Loney, another disappointing performance will lead to desire for change from a frustrated fan base.

The bearded one struck again in 2009.  Although he will forever be known to Dodger fans as “not Carlos Santana,” Casey Blake earned every penny of the contract extension Ned Colletti signed him to prior to the 2009 season.  Every move he makes this season will be compared to what Santana is doing for the Indians, but with Andy LaRoche gone and DeWitt playing second, Blake should be able to remain the stable veteran presence that the Dodgers will need.

Outfield

“Manny being Manny” is back again much to the chagrin of Frank McCourt’s wallet.  Manny Ramirez was a tough anomaly for the Dodgers last season.  Though the fans tried to embrace him after his return from steroid suspension, he just stopped delivering when he was needed late in games (0HRs .235 RISPw/2out).  Never a defensive stud, Ramirez will have to get his bat back in line if he hopes to keep fans off his back this season.

As mentioned earlier, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier speak for themselves.  Both are now known commodities throughout baseball and it will be interesting to see how they handle the national spotlight for the first time in their careers.

Bench

The bench will carry over much of what it had at season’s end, with the additions of Jamey Carroll and Reed Johnson.  There are no names that will stick out as players who can legitimately fill in when injuries strike, so don’t be surprised to see a few names from the minor leagues system be thrown around should a Dodger starter go down.

Starting Rotation

From young starters to franchise cornerstones, Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw will both be called upon to take on large roles in 2010.  Billingsley, who always appears to be one of the best first half pitchers in the league, will need to embrace his role with greater consistency on the mound if he hopes to live up to expectations.

Kershaw could be the best young pitcher not named Tim Lincecum. An improved slider paired with his devastating fastball/curveball combo should prime him for another stellar season.

Veteran imports Hiroki Kuroda and Vincente Padilla will return injury free to the Dodgers.  After being plagued with back problems for much of last season, Kuroda will need to be a workhorse to offset the young starters that the Dodgers will have to throw.

The fifth starter will be decided between a less-than-impressive group of veterans and out of options guys, with Charlie Hager and Russ Ortiz the current favorites.

Bullpen

The Dodgers should again sport one of the best bullpens in the league in 2010.  With a full year of George Sherrill combined with Jonathan Broxton, any lead after the seventh inning should be safe.  Sherrill absolutely dominated lefties last season (.128/.188/.154), while Broxton… well… dominated everyone (.165/.247/.232).  It should be another great year for the Dodgers bullpen… and playing half of their games in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium won’t hurt.

Around the Horn With Los Angeles Dodgers

Breakthrough Performance…

James McDonald

McDonald has been hanging around the big club for two seasons now, seeing four starts in 2009.  Although he will never be a strikeout guy, McDonald specializes in pitching to weak contact.  If he can be efficient with his pitches, his value to the Dodgers could skyrocket.

Ready to Rebound…

Chad Billingsley

It may seem tough to rebound from an All-Star season, but there is definite room for growth for the young righty.  He was supposed to lead the team to the playoffs, but instead was looked over when the postseason rolled around.  With a career 3.55 ERA, Billingsley should come into 2010 expecting big things.

Ready to Disappoint…

Ownership

The Dodgers are one of the league’s most storied franchises and have always benefited from being in one of the largest markets in baseball.  But with ownership in turmoil, it is unclear if the Dodgers will have any room to make moves at the trade deadline to help in a playoff run like they have in recent years.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Matt Kemp goes 30/30 while hitting over .300 this season and playing spectacular defense.  Last season, Kemp broke out for 26 homeruns and thirty-four steals.

Be Shocked If…

Kershaw doesn’t gain serious national attention if he has anywhere close to the year he had last season. Tim Lincecum was a household name halfway through his second Cy Young season [Editor's Note: If those commercials of Linecum and his clone didn't get him there during the off-season already] and if Clayton can get close to matching his ‘09 effort (2.79 ERA at 21 years old), the spotlight will shine on the NL West.

Rock Steady…

Pitching Staff

Somehow, someway, the Dodgers always manage to find pitching. Last year, it was the emergence of rookies Ronald Belisario and Ramon Troncoso.  This year, veterans Ramon and Russ Ortiz are fighting for a roster spot.  No matter who leads the staff, the Dodgers always manage to pull a pitcher or two out of nowhere who become integral parts in the staff being near the top of the league in ERA every year.

Achilles Heel…

Every great team that expects to contend needs to have a true ace.  While the Dodgers have some great arms, they do not have the guy that can end a losing streak or you are confident in to really pitch well when you need him.  This could be a break out year for Kershaw, but if neither he nor Billingsley can assume that role the Dodgers will have the same problem in the playoffs they have seen the last two years.

In The Next Three Years…

After the 2010 season we should see the end of “Mannywood” in LA.  Once upon a time, the Dodgers would have just signed another high priced free agent outfielder to man the position but times have changed.  Another issue facing the team going forward is that their young core is about to see significant raises in the next year or two, and if the Dodgers are as cash strapped moving forward as it appears, they may be forced to part with a few key players.

Goosebumps moment…

When Frank McCourt and Ned Colletti no longer control the team.  With the recent news of the McCourts using the Dodgers’ profits as their personal spending money and court documents being released that showed they expected to raise ticket prices without investing more money in the team, the sooner they are forced to sell the team the better.  The Dodgers have always been a cornerstone franchise of the league and to see the way the franchise is being handled by its owners has to anger Bud Selig and the MLB.  To say Colletti has done a good job running this team would be an exercise in insanity.  He has wasted more dollars in free agency than most teams spend in payroll, and has only kept top prospects because head of scouting Logan White and Assistant GM Kim Ng begged him not to trade them.

Tomorrow it’s that other L.A. team… that doesn’t really play in L.A. but is at least referred to as the other L.A. team… for now!

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Now, almost seven months later, with baseball season once again upon us, rumors of another Padres great being moved have resurfaced.

Adrian Gonzalez

Since beginning his time with the Padres, Adrian Gonzalez has been a standout player that seemed to love playing in his hometown park. But, with his recent success, he may have played himself out of the Padres price range and have to be moved to a higher payroll team.

This is a familiar story for both Padres fans and fans of any small market team.

When Gonzalez signed his four-year, $9.5 million contract extension in 2007, it was a great news for Padres fans. He appeared to be one of the few players in baseball who had chosen team loyalty over a paycheck. And with the history of Padre-lifer Tony Gwynn in San Diego, it seemed as if the Padres had another hometown hero on their hands.

But with his initial contract extension nearing its end, Adrian Gonzalez leaving his hometown appears to be the likely outcome.

In addition, White Sox pitcher Jake Peavy has begun a personal campaign to have Gonzalez join him on the South Side of Chicago.

“I love San Diego, and I don’t have a bad thing to say,” Peavy told Chicago Breaking Sports. “But it does get frustrating. [Adrian] hits .280, and he’s frustrated for weeks at a time. He says, ‘Peav, I got to swing the bat.’

“Adrian wants to win — I can tell you that. If it means leaving San Diego, he won’t think twice about doing that. I can promise you that.”

Leading up to his eventual trade, Peavy continued to profess that he was 100 percent dedicated to the Padres, and now those same comments are beginning to be heard from Gonzalez. Though these comments do not indicate he expects an imminent trade, these are not the type of conversations a player who will stay with his current team usually has during the first week of Spring Training.

Jake Peavy

The comments of Peavy have only fueled the fire that was already burning in Chicago. Now, instead of wondering whether the team would be interested, Chicago media outlets are beginning to look at what exactly it would take to acquire the Padres All-Star.

“That’s really what we need, a big left-handed hitter,” an anonymous White Sox source informed CBS Sports. “They’re saying [general manager] Kenny [Williams] would give anything to get him, maybe even [Gordon] Beckham.”

If the Padres do give in to trading Gonzalez, infielder Gordon Beckham may be one of the best players in the league they could get back. Any trade of an All-Star in the prime of their career will require at least one major league ready player who appears to be on their way of being something special, and Beckham fits that description.

Beckham was drafted eighth overall by the White Sox in the 2008 MLB Draft after starring at the University of Georgia. He spent the first few months of the 2009 season in the minor leagues before he was called up to the majors, spending the rest of the season showing off his bat in the White Sox lineup.

A shortstop by trait, Beckham’s career could lead him to either second base or third where his bat will be his main focus. He played just below average defense last season for the White Sox at third, -2.8 UZR/150, but if his bat continues to mature, his defensive abilities will not affect playing time.

With an influx of talent at third base already in the Padres system, Beckham would be an ideal candidate to take over the second base position for the future.

While a move to the White Sox may appear more likely because of the two teams’ recent trade history, new general manager Jed Hoyer had nothing to do with those discussions and did not deal Williams in any serious trade talks during his time with the Red Sox.

The Adrian Gonzalez merry-go-round will continue to turn until there is a solution from the front office. Whether that solution involves a trade to the White Sox is uncertain, but what appears to be clear is that Adrian Gonzalez is not long for San Diego.

Jeff is a BDD Contributor. He also writes for San Diego News Network, where this article originally appeared.

Since 2003, Greene had been one of the few constants in the Padres lineup, putting together solid, yet never spectacular, years.  Outside of an uncharacteristic statistical jump in 2007 – see 12 homeruns over career average – Greene would consistently put together 15 homeruns, about 60 RBI and solid defense.

But when former Padres GM Kevin Towers decided to part ways with Greene last offseason, there was a void that had no obvious replacement.

Everth Cabrera

The Padres began 2009 season with Luis Rodriguez manning shortstop.  Rodriguez played admirably with an average glove, but the offensive drop off was so severe that when he went down with an ankle injury the Padres decided to give rookie Everth Cabrera a shot.

Cabrera was a Rule 5 draft pick that the Padres got from the Colorado Rockies in January 2009.  Had he not made the opening day roster, Cabrera would have had to been returned to the Rockies where he would be blocked by Troy Tulowitzki.

But after an impressive Spring Training with the Padres that featured nine stolen bases and, despite his errors, impressive glove work, Cabrera was placed on the 25-man roster as a utility infielder.  Cabrera had never played beyond Class A-ball, so when the Padres brought him along as a utility player it was thought that he would be a pinch runner with the occasional start to give veteran David Eckstein a rest at Cabrera’s natural position, second base.

As soon as Cabrera started getting regular playing time he injured his hand in a game against the Phillies and was forced to miss two months of his rookie season.

But he would come back with a vengeance.

For a player who had never seen a pitch above A-ball, Cabrera more than held his own in the pitcher-friendly NL West.  He ended the season with a .255/.342/.703 line and an OPS+ of 98.  Just for random comparison sake: in his first three seasons in the MLB, Jose Reyes had an average OPS+ of 83.  Now I am by no means saying that Cabrera will be the player Reyes is, just pointing out that while Cabrera was not a highly touted prospect, his first season has definitely shown future promise for his bat.

Moreover, Cabrera’s peripheral stats project more production out of his bat in the future.  Because of his game changing speed, Cabrera has a facet to his game that many other players don’t.  In his first season, he had a batting average of balls put in play (BABIP) of .328, comparable to players with a similar skill set – like Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury (.320 and .329 respectively).

Another good indicator to the Padres is Cabrera’s ability to hit the ball on the ground.  It is no secret that he has never, or will ever, have much pop in his bat.  But that is not what type of player Petco plays to.  The Padres need the type of player who will put the ball in play and use their speed and ability to get in

Cabrera's 73 steals led the Minors in '08

scoring position for the middle part of the lineup.  Cabrera and his 2.79 ground ball/fly ball ratio (a figure that would have led the league had he gotten enough at bats) should continue to cause infielders nightmares.

Once on base Everth can be a true game changer.  He stole 25 bases in his rookie season, and led the minors in steals in 2008, with 73.

An additional weapon of Cabrera is his ability to lie down a successfully bunt.  For the season, he reached base 46.4% of the time he attempted a bunt with eight sacrifice bunts.  If Cabrera is going to be a catalyst at the top of the lineup, he will have to get on base anyway possible, including by laying down a bunt.

Cabrera’s defense has been a point of contention amongst Padres fans. Just looking at the numbers may make a grown man cry.

*Info from www.fangraphs.com

Obviously, 23 errors hurts, there is no getting around it.  But, when you consider that before 2009 he had played a total of 45 games at shortstop, the numbers become more understandable.  Also, if you look into his errors, many of them were plays that he was in position to make but just rushed the play unnecessarily.  With more experience Cabrera’s plus fielding ability should begin to take shape.

While Donavan Tate will be regarded as the first high ceiling exciting prospect that the Padres have had in nearly a decade, Cabrera is in the majors now.  He brings excitement to an otherwise uninspiring team.  While Adrian Gonzalez may be a perennial all-star, he may just be the most “Tim Duncan-like” player in the league.

Though Tulowitzki and Rafael Furcal will continue to gain notoriety at shortstop in the NL West, they better watch their back.  The kid in San Diego is coming on strong, and if he can avoid the dreaded sophomore slump, he may just start making noise all over the diamond.

Jeff Creps is a Baseball Daily Digest contributor.  He also writes for Friarhood, where this article originally appeared. Twitter.