Rodriguez’s home run ratio for 2010 is down, as he’s turning only 3.7% of his plate appearances into round-trippers, compared to the 6% he’s averaged over his career.  It’s becoming painfully obvious that this current stretch of big-fly futility since  # 599 can only mean that Rodriguez knows what’s at stake, and likely has been dwelling on it since Spring Training.  And everyone knows that when A-Rod knows what’s at stake he tightens up.  Everyone also knows that if this were Yankee captain Derek Jeter, he would have hit his 600th home run in the next at-bat after his 599th.

As evidence of Jeter’s clutch abilities, my projections show that ”the Captain” is on pace to hit his 600th on May 17, 2083 – which of course, is one day after his current pace puts has him hitting his 599th.  But, that’s really not a fair comparison because Jeter is clutch and A-Rod is not.

Rodriguez will apparently play out the rest of his career as a Luis Castillo clone, plodding along with a .385 slugging percentage while using his still solid plate discipline to get on base enough to hold a job in the infield.  The Yankees probably hold hope that Rodriguez can finish his contract as a DH, perhaps pursuing 7oo or even 800 home runs in his career, but alas, the pressure of joining an elite group at 600 makes that lofty goal all but impossible, unless of course he can leg out an inside-the-parker and put himself in less stressful situations for a couple more seasons.

While fans watch Rodriguez crumble under the pressureevery night on ESPN, with constant reminders of what’s at stake, live in-game updates during at-bats, recaps of the mounting number of plate appearances since his last dinger, the message has been hammered home that he will never hit another home run as long as he lives.

We must realize that 599 home runs was a hell of a run.  He does, after all, hold a total that’s better than all but six other players.

In the post-PED world we live in, where testing and penalties have at least kept steroid use at a somewhat manageable (I.E., not rampant) level, it’s possible that we’ll never see another player hit 599 home runs in their career.

It’s also possible that we’ll never see another player hit 600, even though A-Rod is just one away.

The Jewish historian made his comments in regard to the newly built Colosseum in Rome, a historic stadium that rivals the “House that Ruth Built” in modern day New York City.  Josephus simply used the analogy to compare Rome’s societal excesses to those reportedly known about the biblical twin cities of Abraham’s era.  Unfortunately, his historic reference drew the ire of his contemporaries.  Detractors pointed out that the controversial events, deemed immoral by many, that led to Sodom and Gomorrah’s obliteration from the earth were not something to analogize so flippantly.    

McCarver’s recent comments have garnered similar derision and stoked the flames of passionate Yankee fans.  Those flames are burning as hot as the fire and brimstone that destroyed the two ancient cities.

The criticism started shortly after the FOX telecast of a Yankees game on Saturday.  That’s when McCarver and booth partner Joe Buck discussed New Yankee Stadium.  The two announcers felt images of former Yankee manager Joe Torre were, in their minds, conspicuously absent from the stadium decor.  McCarver compared the alleged omission of the former Yankee field general to World War II era revisionist history put forth as propoganda by Axis powers to disavow some of their former generals.  Just as Dennis Miller might have done, given the same opportunity, McCarver said-

“You remember some of those despotic leaders in World War II, primarily in Russia and Germany, where they used to take those pictures that they had … taken of former generals who were no longer alive, they had shot ‘em,” McCarver continued. “They would airbrush the pictures, and airbrushed the generals out of the pictures. In a sense, that’s what the Yankees have done with Joe Torre. They have airbrushed his legacy. I mean, there’s no sign of Joe Torre at the Stadium. And, that’s ridiculous. I don’t understand it.”

With such insensitive and obviously purposeful remarks made toward an organization that has done nothing in its storied history but serve as a beacon of this country’s democratic ideals, McCarver got what he rightfully deserved on Monday, as the Anti-Defamation League criticized his callous remarks. 

Perhaps the only fitting retribution for McCarver would be for a reformation of an agency like the GULAG, which has shown the ability to truly handle people like him that speak out against the Yankees.  In a just world, McCarver would finish his career toiling in obscurity while covering the Alburquerque Isotopes.  But, like Josephus before him, McCarver will likely just benefit from the criticism he’s currently facing. 

Josephus not only got past his own controversial comments in 90 A.D., they played a large part in deflecting far more serious questions about his past.   For instance, it was only after his death that historians started to doubt his account of  the Siege of Yodfat, where Josephus essentially rigged a game of ‘eenie, meenie, minnie, mo’ to save himself while those around him died.

Perhaps McCarver will benefit as well, since criticism from this past weekend seems to be overshadowing years of other gaffs and on air bloopers.

“My curveball is a lot different than anybody else’s, because instead of twisting it, I spike it with the point of my finger, and I flick it straight forward…a lot of people spike it and still flick their wrist, but I don’t.”

After reading that article, it seemed like I saw knucklecurve grips on pitchers here and there, college and pro.  From James Paxton and Braden Kapteyn, to A.J. Burnett.  I suppose the memory of watching Pomeranz dominate Kentucky in Lexington back on March 19 combined with the article about a unique pitch made it stick in my head, sort of like a top 40 song. 

*Or, stuck in your head like the word ‘article’, now that I noticed I used it 17 times in the previous 3 grafs and will go on to use it several more times the rest of the way.

About three weeks ago, I ran into Keith Vorhoff, assistant coach for University of Kentucky baseball team, and thought to ask him if this pitch was making sort kind of comeback and gaining in popularity.  He said the spike or knuckle-curves he’s seen, especially in the cases of players on Kentucky like Kapteyn and Paxton, are from guys throwing garden-variety curveballs, but just using that spiked index finger to get the ball ‘deeper’ in their hand, as he explained it.  This lets guys get a little more movement on their braking ball with the arm motion staying the same.  Vorhoff said he sometimes used the grip when he pitched in college.

But, the quote from the Pomeranz article above indicates that the former Ole Miss standout throws something different from these other guys.  

Then, after almost a month went by and this goofy pitch was finally out of my mind, seemingly forever, Doug Thorburn broke down Pomeranz’s motion in this terrific article. 

At one point Doug detailed the lefy’s arm motion, noticed early pronation, and wrote that there could be problems down the road-

“The curveball is already a physically demanding pitch, due to the amount of pronation necessary to rotate the arm out of its supinated position after release point. If Pomeranz is beginning with a pronated forearm before supinating the curveball, then the arm is doing a lot of extra work while complicating the pitch sequence.”

Color my interest piqued once again. 

Although there’s not much natural about the overhand throwing motion, one thing the body will do naturally is get your arm in a position so the palm is facing the to the right (if you’re right-handed) at the end of the pitch.  That’s the pronated delivery, but it usually occurs after the ball has left a pitcher’s hand. 

Perhaps Pomeranz’ pronation problem isn’t such a bad thing since he’s ‘pushing’ the ball straight out and not turning his hand over like standard breaking balls.  If I understand all this correctly, that means the extra arm work Doug fears could be occurring shouldn’t be a problem since Pomeranz doesn’t throw the standard fare curveball by supinating his arm. 

Of course, this now makes me wonder if the pitch could actually put less stress on arms.  Sliders and curves are considered more harmful than changeups and two-seam fastballs because of the supination of the throwing arm.  Maybe the true knuckle-curve thrown by Drew Pomeranz, and its theoretically easier arm motion will become more popular. 

*I’ve emailed Doug about this article and hope he weigh in

Turns out he was embellishing, though not egregiously. Masterson’s start against the Mets was following a performance against the Red Sox last week in which he threw a 2-hitter with 18 ground ball outs along the way. Another brilliant pitching performance in a year that’s been full of them. Though not as sharp against the Mets on Tuesday, he still carried a 4-1 lead into the 5th. And he was still getting grounders, as Indians’ T.V. crew mentioned that the Mets’ Rod Barajas had hit the only fly ball against Masterson in the previous four frames of this game.  That would actually continue for most of the next inning.

The fateful fifth started with a line drive single from Jeff Francouer, the second ball hit in the air on the night. That’s when the previously mentioned bunting started. Alex Cora, the exact kind of guy most want bunting since he is a terrible hitter, tried to get out on purpose and move Francouer to scoring position. His efforts were thwarted, however, when Tribe second baseman Luis Valbuena did not hustle over and cover first and Cora had an unlikely base hit.  Next up, speedy Jose Reyes with another bunt attempt.  With Reyes, no bunt is a true sacrifice as he always has the potential to turn it into a hit.  That’s just what happened as Valbuena actually made it to first on this attempt, but Masterson’s throw did not, sailing into the outfield, scoring a run, and putting Cora at third and Reyes at second. 

New York found themselves in manufactured run heaven, but Angel Pagan goofed up and hit the ball hard, right at Russell Branyan.  That served as an unproductive out after the bunts, because Cora couldn’t score on the play.  It turned out to be a temporary setback though, as David Wright grounded to short and on a late throw to first plated both Cora and a running-through-the-stop sign Reyes.  Branyan was slow to react at first base after he caught the throw from short.  He then followed up with an offline throw that allowed the reckless Reyes to slide in safely.  The infield hit gave Wright three R.B.I. on two groundballs to short on the night.

Ike Davis, seeing the infield shift combined with the earlier incidents of shiftless defense in the infield, dropped yet another bunt down the third base line that was foul by inches.  Had it remained in play, Davis would have easily had an infield hit.  Despite his gambit, the Indians remained in the shift.  But it wouldn’t matter, as Davis finally eschewed the small ball strategy and ended his at-bat with a 415 foot two-run homer to center that put the Mets up for good and took away what could have been a second straight win for Masterson. 

Our take on this inning could go one of two ways.  First, we could laud the Mets for playing traditional baseball, making the defense work, forcing the issue, and getting back into a game against a recently stingy pitcher.  Or, we could do what I think we should do and once again deride the use of sacrifice bunts in MLB. 

Look, I admit it was old-school-cool to see the Mets force Cleveland into silly looking defense and score runs on grounders.  But, most of the time MLB teams are going to get you out when you lay down a bunt.  And, I strongly believe making outs in baseball is bad for your offense.  Read here, here, and here to get entertaining summaries of what I’m talking about.  In short, sacrifice bunts are statistically a bad proposition, actually decreasing the average number of runs scored if successful.  I’ve come around to the line of thinking that the sac bunt is way overused in MLB. 

As an aside, I’ll say that as much as I abhor the bunt in MLB, I don’t really believe it is the devil at every baseball level.  I had an interesting discussion with the University of Arkansas’ beat writers on the subject during a college baseball game this spring.  They made the the valid point that in MLB, defenders are so good that they rarely botch bunts, almost always get the out that’s given to them, and that yes, the sac bunt is arguably asinine at that level.  However, even though college baseball features metal bats and big offenses, the bunt doesn’t seem like such a bad idea because it’s not the near-automatic out in college that you see at the highest level of the game.

But, back to MLB.  I’ll grant that playing for one run late in a game is a little bit of a different story.  Depending on the hitter, the defender at third, etc., one can make a convincing argument for bunts in tight games late.  But, down several runs halfway through the game?  No way, I say.

The Mets entered their bunt-a-thon in the game in question down three runs.  When you’re down three runs, you don’t need to sacrifice and play for one run, you need as many baserunners as possible.  Something that did happen for the Mets in the fifth inning Tuesday, but not by design.  No, the design called for Cora to make an out when they had few to give.  Cora, as stated earlier, is a poor hitter.  But, even his awful .300 OBP is far better than the (estimated) .010 OBP batters get on sacrifice bunts in MLB. 

No, the Mets got lucky.  They tried to sacrifice and Cleveland’s inability to execute meant the Mets got what they really needed to get back in the game-not small-ball, but base runners.

Of course, some did.  So, anything I write easily runs the risk of being redundant.  It even more easily runs the risk of being inferior to the others, but that’s a given.   

Nevertheless, before my self-imposed boycott of such a vast array of opinions, I knew I would not miss Joe Posnanski’s.  He describes what he calls the beauty found last night in the Gallaraga game here.  I also couldn’t bypass anything at BDD, and Bill Ferris commented quickly about the shame of it all.  And finally, Ken Funck brought it in this article at BP appealing for the use of instant replay in MLB.    

All three writers noticed one thing in particular, though they covered it to varying degrees.  It is the one thing that stood out most to me.  That thing is the composure exhibited by the young pitcher at the time of the call.  When I first saw the replay, cameras cut away from a smiling-in-disbelief Gallaraga to show Miguel Cabrera and other Tigers with their hands on their heads.  Tiger manager Jim Leyland came out to question the call, but everyone involved for Detroit remained rather calm given the situation.  That is, until they saw the replay. 

But, back to Gallaraga at the time of the call.  As Posnanski put it so well, you have to admire this guy that knew- absolutely knew, he got robbed in that situation.  He handled it with such composure.  It was not resignation- he’s certainly a competitor.  You don’t make it to MLB if your not competitive.  But, his reaction was the same reaction he had after Austin Jackson made one of the great catches in baseball history.   

Such a spectacular play to extend the perfection.  That catch was one of the best I’ve ever seen, period.  And in my opinion, it was even better than Dewayne Wise’s effort to keep Mark Buehrle’s perfect game intact.  Armando Gallaraga just chuckled at it and went back to his job of getting outs.    

The missed call meant not only the end of the perfect game for Gallaraga.  It meant there was still one more of out to get in this game for Detroit.  It also meant the tying run was now on deck, and Gallaraga’s team badly needed this win.  They had dropped 8 of the previous 10 in a division that could come down to the final week of the season, just like it did last year.  So, what looked like it could become a famous moment in baseball, when the outcome of the game would take a backseat to an individual’s accomplishment, now had a chance to become an infamous moment in baseball.  It had a chance to become a moment that people could point to as the match in the powder barrel of a blown up season. 

Consider what could have happened.  Gallaraga could have lost his mind because he felt an umpire blew the call for a third out.  He could have faced the next batter while still thinking about a missed call.  And he could have allowed the next batter to reach, bringing the tying run to the plate.  I could go on, but no matter how slim the Indian’s chances, the game was still in doubt.  

It was very unlikely, given that he hadn’t allowed a runner through the first 8 2/3 innings.  But, not impossible.

Think back, for a moment, about a big situation with a home team up 3-0 late in a game about 7 years ago.  The pitcher was cruising.  Not cruising like Gallaraga on June 2, but pitching a shutout against a much better team and in a much bigger situation.  This pitcher entered the 8^thinning having given up but 3 hits and two walks and having retired the last 7 batters in a row.  But, with one on and one out, his leftfielder lost his mind when he felt a fan interfered with his bid to catch a foul down the leftfield line.  The pitcher, as Cub fans in particular already realize, was Mark Prior and the game was the 6^th of the 2003 NLCS. 

Prior was incensed by what he saw- replaysshow him scowling out toward the left field line while Alou was slamming his glove on the ground and yelling for fan interference.  No call could be made to reverse what happened and Prior had to face the next batters and get out of the inning.  He had to do his job.  There was one on and the tying run was on deck- just like in Gallaraga’s game.  Alas, Prior couldn’t recover, and the game is infamous now.  It’s infamous, because the Cubs could have had the second out in the 8^th.  They could have won the game.  They could have gone on to their first World Series in nearly a century. 

So, while not likely, it was certainly possible that a rattled Gallaraga could have gone on to lose the game, after losing his perfect game.  Doing so would have been another in a recent rash of losses to a Tiger team that needs every single victory this season. 

How would the call have looked then?

As a junior at Florida State in 2008, Posey hit 26 home runs and put up a slash line of .463/.566/.879.  He won the Golden Spikes Award in July and signed with the Giants in August, after they had selected him 5th overall in the MLB amateur draft back in June of that year.  Posey has played 172 games in the Giants minor league system, most of them last year, posting a .333/.427/.542 line along the way.  He walked as often as he struck out in the minors and showed a strong throwing arm at catcher.

San Francisco fans have been waiting impatiently for this call-up since the season started.  Fantasy baseball fans have also had their eye on the young hitter, as his .995 OPS at Triple A Fresno gives hope that he can contribute immediately at the ever-thin catcher’s position. 

Posey did nothing to temper enthusiasm in his first 2010 game, cracking 3 hits and plating 3 R.B.I., as a first baseman.  Then, on Sunday in his second game, Posey had another three hit game that made people wonder, ‘why not call him up sooner?’.

Well, San Francisco General Manager Brian Sabean has given his share of reasons, the merits of which are of course debatable.  After stating in last year’s off-season that Posey likely couldn’t handle everyday catcher duties, Sabean has continued to provide updates on his star prospect, often pushed by beat writers looking for a target date.  Going into spring training, the Giants were hinting that Posey could play somewhere besides catcher- first perhaps, and the young man hit well enough to make the decision very difficult.  Alas, he was sent to Fresno, to await word on when he’d join the big club. 

Late April saw rumors of a Posey call-up, but nothing ever materialized.  Many feel that the Giants realize that an extra month down on the farm could mean an extra year of club control if the phenom qualifies as a Super Two and reaches arbitration eligibility in 2012.  But, G.M. Sabean kept repeating his mantra that no, finances where not an issue, and that Posey just wasn’t ready.  And besides, Molina was hitting, wasn’t he?

Aubrey Huff helped put the pressure on Sabean when he agreed to play left if it meant opening a spot for Posey. 

But, Sabean still insisted that service time was not an issue.  He cited the fact that Lincecum qualified as a Super Two, even though the Giants could have left him down just another week or so a while back and delayed the his arbitration clock.  He also took a shot at triple A pitching and said that Posey’s gaudy stats in 2010 may not translate to MLB because in his opinion, all the good pitching is already in MLB.   

Sabean finally relented on Saturday of Memorial Day weekend and called Posey up to play first base.  He’ll probably give Molina a break a catcher every now and then and play close to full-time.

Whether it was the understandable desire to give Posey more time working behind the plate (he wasn’t always a catcher in college) or the understandable desire to delay arbitration and keep him under club control longer, Sabean’s patience sparked controversy in San Francisco.  Nevertheless, Posey’s up now.  And if he keeps ringing up multi-hit games, people may forget the delay, as they have with fellow Giant Tim Lincecum.

First, they are enjoying tremendous power production from the trio mentioned above and lead MLB in team homers by a large margin.  

Jose Bautista, who has spent much of his career as a good fourth outfielder, starts nearly every day for the Jays and is already nearing his career high in homers for a season- and we’re not to Memorial Day Weekend.  Bautista has hit more flyballs than usual this year and he’s hit way more of those flyballs than usual out of the park.  Jason Grey talks about what Buster Olney found out from Jose himself in this link.  Apparently, Bautista’s made a swing adjustment and his burst of power in 2010 may be sustainable, as he feels much more confident getting around on fastballs.  Another thing Jose has going for him is that he’s currently about 50 points below his career BABIP.  So, even if he doesn’t keep up the homer pace, he’s actually due to have a few more hits to fall in (as doubles, perhaps?) and his average could climb a little- and it’s already at his career norm.

Wells, while considered highly overpaid by many in the baseball analyst world, has shown the ability in the past to put up good numbers.  To paraphrase Ron Shandler, if a guy displays a skill, it won’t often disappear.  But for Wells, he’s had a couple of seasons where his skills, at the very least, did a good job hiding from us.  Maybe Wells’ stock was down going into this year because he’s failed to build on a reputation that started in 2003, when he posted a .317/.359/.550 line as a 24 year old.  And then, just the third season after that, he repeated those numbers and looked like one of the best outfielders in baseball.  But, 2007 and 2009 saw severe drops in his HR totals.  Looking back at those two down years, Wells only hit half his normal amount of flyballs out of the park (about 6% compared to his 10-12% most other years).  This year, he’s enjoying a higher percentage of flies going over the fence than he’s ever had (16.2%) and as a result he’s on track for a year that will measure up to, and perhaps even exceed, his best two seasons at the plate.  I almost wonder if recently-dismissed Toronto G.M./ current ESPN analyst J.P. Ricciardi is thinking, ‘now THIS is the Vernon Wells I fell head over heels for‘. 

To me, Alex Gonzalez is a little harder to figure out.  Gonzo hit 23 homers as a 27 year old in 2004 while with the Marlins, but has not had a year like that since.  In fact, he’s had years at the plate that have been hideous since then, as he rarely walks and often can’t hit his way on either.  I suppose the thing that’s hurt his homer total more than anything else in recent seasons are his games played, as he’s struggled to play over a hundred games the past few years.  He’s had stretches during his career where he elevates the ball quite a bit, so it will be interesting to see if he can keep that up while staying healthy and on the field.   

Speaking of health, another factor for the Jays is Shaun Marcum’s return from Tommy John Surgery.  With traded-away Roy Hallday throwing 130 pitches a game for the Phillies, Toronto needed a front man for their extremely young pitching staff in 2010.  Marcum was solid two years ago, but he’s not only come back healthy after his surgery, he’s come back pitching about as well as anyone in baseball.  While he’s not quite on ‘Doc’’s level, his 1.00 WHIP and 2.82 ERA will play anywhere, as they say.  Unfortunately, with the exception of Ricky Romero, his young mound-mates are struggling.  However, the offense has bailed them out thus far and the bullpen has been solid, as expected.

But, hot starts of several key players aside, the best answer for the Jays’ start may be that they are simply living up to their Pythagorean win-loss record this year.  In 2009, they outscored their opponents overall, yet posted a win-loss record further below the expected outcome than any team in MLB.  They were unlucky last season, but this year they’re winning as much as they should be winning considering their run differential.  

There’s another wrinkle with that win-loss record as well.  While their actual-versus-Pythagorean record is far different from last year, one thing remains the same- they are feasting on non-division opponents. 

They are 22-13 against teams outside the A.L. East in 2010.  In their limited time in divisional play they are 5-7.  If last year’s splits carry over, (They finished 2009 20 games under .500 against the A.L. East) they will once again fall below .500 overall. 

Beginning May 31, they face the Yankees and Rays in 9 straight games, a stretch that could knock the wind out of them before they even head out on an interleague road trip against Colorado and San Diego.  They get no breaks after that when they come home, as the Phillies and Cardinals both come to town.  In summary, I see a rough schedule ahead that will likely put them on the wrong side of .500 in a hurry.  Even if they do manage to keep their heads above water in the coming month, all those Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays games on the summer portion of the schedule are the infant harbinger of ruin for the Jays.

In January of this year, Cabrera addressed the media at Comerica Park and admitted that he addressed his alcohol problems during the off-season.  Cabrera told them,

“When you’ve got problems, you can’t hide”. 

The Tiger first baseman went on to say that he was looking forward to 2010 and a chance to make amends for his embarrassing end to the previous season.  Later on, during spring training in March, Cabrera added to his resolutions for a better 2010 with the declaration that he had his sights set on the American League M.V.P. award. 

As we enter the 7th week of the season, Cabrera is doing all he can to accomplish that lofty goal.

As of this article, Cabrera is rolling along at .354/.443/.618.  He has an OPS+ of 184.  As impressive as his .930 career OPS is, consider this year’s stellar 1.061 and signs are pointing toward someone that’s already been an elite hitter taking this season to the next level.  That next level could very well include his first M.V.P. award.

Albert Pujols, currently considered the best hitter in baseball, is a good benchmark when deciding whether someone is worthy of an M.V.P. award, since I feel he deserves one every year.  Before showing this line though, I want to reiterate that Pujols is looking like a once-in-a-generation player-

By the same age (26)-

Pujols – .332 batting average, 250 home runs, 758 R.B.I.

Cabrera- .311 batting average, 209 homers, 753 R.B.I.

Yes, Pujols has him cold in slugging percentage, and also has him in OBP.  But, when Pujols is one of the few you can find to outdo what Cabrera’s done to start his career, then you’re talking about a phenomenal player in his own right.  Miguel is entering the prime of his career and this new-found commitment to excellence bodes well for a continuation to his hot 2010 start. 

In the past couple of seasons, Tiger manager Jim Leyland has often said that Cabrera could be an even more dangerous hitter if he battled every single at-bat as best he could.  It looks like this year Miguel is doing just that, as he (in the limited sample so far in 2010) has had more walks than strikeouts for the first time in his career.  

Cabrera’s competition for league honors will of course come from usual contenders like Alex Rodriguez, especially since the Yankees are looking like a playoff-bound team once again.  In addition, a few division mates in the A.L. Central will provide a couple of candidates for the award as former winners Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer are off to their own strong starts in what could be another compelling A.L. Central race between the Twins and Tigers.  Since voters often factor a team’s finish in their M.V.P. assessments, the division winner’s team could have a leg up.

Cabrera’s been in the top five in voting before, and even last year he received one first place vote, costing Joe Mauer a unanimous decision.  Kyodo News baseball writer Keizo Konishi raised eyebrows when he cast the lone 1st place vote in 2009 for the Tiger slugger.  Konishi defended his controversial vote in this article, saying that taking Cabrera out of the lineup would be far more debilitating to the Tigers than taking Mauer from the Twins.  Given the lack of impact bats around Cabrera, he may have a point. 

Cabrera currently sits 4th in batting average, 1st in R.B.I., tied for 11th in HR, and 3rd in OBP in the American League.  Of course, two guys that are close to him in all those categories are the aforementioned Mauer and Morneau.  A player’s runs batted in totals seem be a siren’s call to M.V.P. voters, and Cabrera’s current pace and past performance in that category may also work in his favor. 

Miguel Cabrera is on a Hall of Fame career path.  On his Baseball-Reference page, his list of similar batters through age 26 shows 6 of the top 10 as current Hall of Famers.  The tenth name on the list is Pujols, who will likely be a first-ballot choice five years after he retires.  If Cabrera maintains his 2010 pace and carries a mediocre Tiger team to the postseason, he would go a long way toward putting that ugly 2009 weekend behind him.  He could also prove Keizo Konishi a visionary and win his first M.V.P. award.  

I think they should add a classification for those that get sick in the head with rotissierie baseball. 

Some people can play fantasy sports and live a productive life, just like some people can gamble and not become addicted and lose everything they own.  I’m increasingly afraid that I’m going to fall under the Roto-addict heading if one ever appears in an upcoming edition. 

I imagine the criteria to sound something like this-

Obsessive checking of standings that haven’t changed in 12 hours, mood swings corresponding with results, entering leagues year after year despite failing miserably, etc.

I fear this because I keep playing despite losing over and over, I keep checking standings despite falling lower and lower, and keep hoping for improvement despite watching players on my teams suck more and more. 

Dan Okrent, the man who invented Rotisserie baseball, famously said, “there’s nothing more interesting than one’s own fantasy team, and nothing less interesting than someone else’s“.  At the risk of boring my few, but almost preternaturally intelligent readers, I’d like to spend the next several hundred words crying about my fantasy baseball team.

In our BDD Writers league, updated weekly for all the world to see, I currently reside in the cellar.  Last place.  Lower than a well-digger’s shoes. 

I took part in a mixed league auction (Harvey’s Wallbangers Fantasy League, the greatest roto league in the world)  two days before our BDD league snake draft.  I carried over a similar strategy I’d used in the auction and passed on pitchers early to focus on a strong offense.  That led me to take Prince Fielder in the first round, and Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Lee, and Jason Bay shortly thereafter. 

Ellsbury has been out with bruised ribs, but the far greater disappointment has come from Bay, Fielder, and Lee, who have combined for fewer home runs (7) than the undrafted Jose Guillen has on the year (8).  The horrible starts to the season by that trio means my offense can’t carry me when I have a pitching staff that is off to its own slow start.  The thing is, with the pitchers, I expected it.  With the Prince, I did not.

So, I find myself stuck.  I certainly can’t drop those guys.  I can’t even put them on the bench, because the week I do would be the week they’ll all hit .450 with 5 home runs apiece.  So my high powered offense is getting me little in the way of points and the pitching staff is bad. 

When you have a crappy staff in roto baseball, you often search the waiver wire in hopes of stumbling across this year’s Jorge de la Rosa.  When you are bordering on DSM-defined compulsive behavior brought about by an obssessive interest in a computer hosted baseball statistics game, you search the waiver wire about 5 times every night. 

The waiver wire at this point is a scrap heap of players that no other writer on this site’s league will take on their team.  Searching through this list of 5th starters on poor teams led me to take a flyer on Oakland A’s pitcher Dallas Braden last week. 

But of course, lest you think this story has a happy ending, realize that I left Dallas Braden on my bench Sunday while he was pitching the 19th perfect game in MLB history.  Since he was playing against the best team in MLB so far in 2010, I neglected to activate him.  Excuses aside, I failed to reap the benefits of his perfect game, a performance that would have at least helped me start moving back toward respectability in WHIP and ERA standings.

But no, instead I had to watch the Sportscenter crawl mention Braden’s masterpiece every 90 seconds Sunday evening.  Even if I hadn’t already been obsessed to the point of constant depression about fantasy baseball, the constant reminder that I’d basically thrown away a winning bet out of sheer ignorance drove me to the brink of madness.

Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen in Chicago, would be an example. 

A shakeup with the lineup has an impact for the Mets that goes beyond the field in many ways.  For instance, the decision is magnified when the media has already started asking how long it could be before the organization considers a change with the manager.  Additionally, it’s a reality that any shakeup also has to compete with the Yankees for positive press in the Big Apple.  The solution Manuel came up with?  Following through on a desire he expressed during spring training to move prototypical leadoff hitter Jose Reyes to the third spot in the batting order.

2010 addition Jason Bay has started the year slowly, hitting only one home run as of April 30.  David Wright, the face of the franchise, is striking out far more than usual and is coming off a year in which he hit about a third of his normal season’s worth of home runs.  Heart of the order hitter Carlos Beltran is still recovering from off-season knee surgery.  So, Manuel decided to turn to the 200 pound (soaking wet?) Jose Reyes as his 3 hole hitter to spark the offense.  Reyes has put up double digit homer seasons in the past,  but is not known as a power hitter.  Like Beltran, he’s also coming back from injury. 

How unique is the move?  I’ve seen comparisons to Hanley Ramirez’s recent move to the third spot in the order.  But, Ramirez is a big kid.  He’ll push 230 pounds and hit about a dozen more homers than Jose each year.  Hanley’s the go-to yardstick for Reyes because he’s a shortstop, a big-time base-stealer, and made his mark as a leadoff hitter.  However, Hanley’s superior power differentiates him from his New York counterpart.  Briefly, we don’t see this type of move very often- especially with shortstops. 

But, leaving a player’s defensive position out of it, is it crazy for a lighter hitting player in general to bat third?  My first thought was that teams generally put their 30 homer guys in the three hole.  And yes, that this is probably a crazy move.  It’s the Mets, after all.  New York.  Pressure.  Hot Seat.  Yadda yadda.

But, I looked around because it turns out I’m rarely correct in my assumptions.  Initially I found some vindication, as it turns out most teams do pretty much bat their best power hitter third.  There were lots of names like Pujols and Braun on 2010 MLB box scores in the third spot.  

Then I found some questionable names.  Franklin Gutierrez.  Ryan Sweeney.  Lastings Milledge.  Not exactly Murderer’s Row.  Todd Helton, once my idea of a perfect three hitter with his high batting average and high slugging percentage, now struggles to go deep.  Yet, he is still hitting third for the Rockies.  That’s four guys that don’t hit for a lot of power, but occupy the spot in the order usually reserved for a team’s biggest bat.  

To be fair, context is key on some of those names.  It’s not like the Pirates have David Wright and Jason Bay as options to bat third instead of Milledge.  But, these examples are the exceptions to the rule.  Generally, and certainly when you look at teams with comparable payrolls as the Mets, you find power in the three hole.  So, while most teams know what I like and favor the big bopper third, it’s not completely unheard of to go for a low homer hitter there.

The next thing I wondered was- ‘does it even matter’?  Over the course of a season, how big of a difference does moving Jose Reyes into the heart of the order make?  How many runs would be lost, if any?  My continued dalliance in the dark arts of sabremetrics has convinced me that it doesn’t much matter what order batters step to the plate over the course of a season’s worth of wins and losses. 

But again, due diligence. 

After quick searching, I found that the short answer is lineup construction could play a small factor in average runs scored.  However, the difference is very slight and significant differences could only show up statistically in absurd lineup variations like the pitcher hitting cleanup.  Something no manager would ever do.  I found that traditional lineups with a slap hitter in the two hole versus a common sense approach like OBP descending value order that gives your best hitters the most at-bats, for example, show only a slight difference in average runs scored in sabremetric research. 

I also found a nifty run estimator.

I don’t have the space, or statistical knowledge, to delve too deeply into the merits of projection tools.  They obviously can’t guarantee what would actually happen, but I believe they provide a look at what’s statistically most likely to happen.   Optimal lineup construction is discussed here, by people that do know such things.  The authors found that the best lineup may provide 5-15 more runs per season more than what is usually considered a ‘traditional’ lineup we see with most teams.  That’s not a big difference, but could tilt a few games one way or the other.   

I plugged the post-shakeup Met lineup in the little tool I found at this link.  This application is one of a few that make use of certain projected batting variables to determine an average number of runs scored per game.  If you want some analysis on this particular tool, this was a good summary. 

I ran the new Met lineup and got the projection linked above at 4.828 runs per game.  When I plugged in the ’old’ Met lineup with Reyes leading off, it projected 4.808 runs per game.   

While the new batting order does fare better, it’s only a slight difference and a very small increase in runs over the course of the season.  So, statistically speaking, dropping Reyes from leadoff to third doesn’t hurt anything, but doesn’t really help that much either.  Of course, these types of moves aren’t inconsequential in the clubhouse.  Nor in late innings with lefty-righty splits and specialty relievers.  And certainly not in fan and press opinions of what’s being done to improve the ballclub.

In summary, I found enough to believe it doesn’t really matter statistically that Reyes bats first or third, so long as he bats high enough (along with Wright and Bay) that the best Met hitters get to the plate more over the course of a season.   What does matter is the Mets have done nothing but win since the change and with results like that, Reyes may stay in the third spot the rest of the year.

Interestingly a change in the lineup that would be less newsworthy, but would make a greater difference in the potential runs scored, is dropping Luis Castillo out of the two-hole and to the bottom of the order.  All the highest scoring lineups projected by the tool I used have the top five hitters shuffled around.  However, one constant is that Castillo always bats last in the best case scenarios, right behind the pitcher.  This is a combination of Castillo’s lack of power keeping him from being one of the five best hitters on his team, and because he does have a pretty good OBP and could give top of the order hitters more RBI opportunities later in games.  This is a strategy that the micro-managing St. Louis Cardinal skipper Tony LaRussa often uses.

Turns out that, at least according to the calculator used above, that while moving Jose Reyes to third in the order doesn’t make much difference statistically, stealing a page from TLR and batting Castillo last could make a small difference over the course of a season for the Mets.  Maybe even enough to prevent a late season collapse.