Silva was a strike machine for the Minnesota Twins from 2004-2007, using his stinginess with the walks (1.3 BB/9 over that time frame) and groundball tendencies (47.7 GB%) to compensate for a microscopic whiff rate (3.56 K/9). The 6-4, 250 pound righty averaged about 2.5 Wins Above Replacement per season. Yet, by the time Silva became a Cubbie, he had devolved into a punch line.

Then-Seattle GM Bill Bavasi inked him to a four-year, $48 million deal prior to the 2008 season, and Silva promptly put up a 6.46 ERA for the M’s. His peripherals weren’t nearly as poor (4.64 xFIP) but Silva was slowed by elbow and back injuries. In 2009, he tossed just 30.1 frames with a 5.53 xFIP, as a right rotator cuff ailment wiped away nearly most of his season. The grand total for Seattle, including the $9 million sent to Chicago as part of the Bradley deal? 1.4 WAR for a cool $27 million.

The 31-year-old was a well-compensated roster zombie for the Mariners. But in the National League, Silva has returned from the ranks of the undead. In 67.2 innings pitched, he has a career-high 6.25 K/9, just 1.6 BB/9 and a 3.80 xFIP. Silva’s also keeping the ball on the ground 48.1 percent, his highest rate since 2005. With 1.3 WAR, he’s outperforming Bradley (-0.1 WAR) by a wide margin. Raise your hand if you called this one back in December.

Silva’s revival has been spurred by a shift in his pitching approach. For the majority of his career, he has lobbed low-90’s fastball after low-90’s fastball, mixing in some low-80’s changeups and sliders and the occasional mid-70’s curveball. Silva has thrown his ”heater” about three-quarters of the time in the majors. This season, however, he’s mixing in more breaking and off-speed stuff. He has gone to his fastball about 57 percent of the time, throwing sliders 13 percent and changeups 30 percent.

Silva’s secondary stuff has been far more effective than in years past. During his career, Carlos’ slider has been -1.1 runs below average per 100 pitches thrown, while his changeup checks in at -0.56 per 100 pitches. In 2010, the slider is at +2.02 runs/100 pitches and the change +3.67/100. According to Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool, the whiff rate on Silva’s slider (14.6 percent) bests the 13.6 percent MLB average. His changeup has an 11.4 percent whiff rate (12.6 percent MLB average), but he’s throwing it for a strike at will: 74.1 percent, compared to the 60.7 percent big league average.

Supplementing his fastball with more breaking and off-speed pitches, Silva has reduced his contact rates. He’s getting swinging strikes 8.2 percent in 2010, which is right around the MLB average and well above his 5.6 percent career average. Silva’s overall contact rate is 82.8 percent, compared to the 81 percent MLB average and a career 88.2 percent mark. Also, for the first time since he was a rookie reliever with the Phillies back in 2002, Silva has an outside swing percentage that surpasses the major league average. He’s getting hitters to chase off the plate 29.8 percent (28.1 percent MLB average). Silva is in the non-DH league, so you’d expect some improvement as a result of his shift from the AL to the NL. But clearly, he’s pitching as well as he ever has.

Carlos Silva won’t keep a sub-three ERA. His peripherals suggest an ERA nearly a run higher, and his rest-of-season ZiPS projection calls for a 4.21 FIP. But even so, that makes him a serviceable big league starter. Given his work so far and that ZiPS projection, Silva would finish the season with between 2.5 and 3 WAR if he reaches 175 innings pitched. Not bad for a guy who, just a few months ago, looked destined to star in the next George Romero film.

But Gutierrez isn’t an all-glove, no-hit player. Since he became a Mariner as part of a three-team, 11 player bonanza involving the M’s, Indians and Mets in December of 2008, Seattle’s slick-fielding center fielder has become an all-around threat and one of the most valuable players in the game.

In Cleveland over the 2005-2008 seasons, Gutierrez hit .258/.308/.409 in 884 plate appearances. His weighted on-base average was .313, and his wRC+ (weighted on-base average, with park and league adjustments) was 91. wRC+ is set on a scale where 100 is average, so Gutierrez’s lumber was nine percent worse than the league average. In his early-to-mid-twenties, he displayed some power (.151 ISO) but poor strike zone control: Gutierrez drew a walk in just 5.9 percent of his plate appearances.

During his first season in Seattle, Gutierrez batted .283/.339/.425 (.337 wOBA) in 629 PA. He improved his walk rate to 7.3 percent, while maintaining his decent pop with a .142 ISO. That performance becomes more impressive when one considers the run-sapping nature of Safeco Field — according to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Safeco decreased run-scoring by six percent compared to a neutral ball park over the 2007-2009 seasons. Gutierrez’s wRC+ was 108, besting the average hitter by eight percent.

This year, Franklin’s up to .294/.387/.433 in 225 PA, with a .374 wOBA and a 135 wRC+. Some of those gains are likely due to good fortune on balls put in play — Gutierrez’s BABIP is .369, compared to a career .326 BABIP and a projected .331 rest-of-season BABIP from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS system. But even so, Gutierrez is showing a similar level of power (.139 ISO) while dramatically increasing his rate of free passes taken with a 13.3 percent walk rate. 

Opponents are throwing him fewer pitches within the strike zone, and he’s taking a cut at a lower percentage of those pitcher’s pitches. Here are Gutierrez’s percentages of pitches seen within the strike zone and his outside swing percentages over the 2006-2010 seasons (I omitted his 2 PA 2005 season), compared to the MLB averages in those respective years:

Laying off of more out-of-zone offerings, Gutierrez has a career low 54.2 first pitch strike percentage (58 percent MLB average) and a career-best 4.37 pitches seen per plate appearances (the MLB average is about 3.8).

Gutierrez’s defensive gifts are extremely rare, but he’s no slouch at the dish. Combine Franklin’s off-the-charts D with his solid hitting, and you have a true superstar. Gutierrez was worth 6.1 Wins Above Replacement in 2009, first among center fielders and 12th overall among position players. In 2010, he already has 2.5 WAR. That trails only Alex Rios among CFs and places 10th among position players.

During the winter, the M’s locked up Gutierrez with a four-year, $20.5 million contract, with a $7.5 million club option for 2014. The deal buys out his arbitration-eligible seasons and at least one free agent season. Seattle now controls one of the best everyday players in the bigs through what figure to be his peak years. Enjoy him, Mariners fans.

There’s nothing wrong with Boston’s bats — the club has plated 260 runs, tied for first in the majors with the Yankees and Jays. Based on the team’s .348 weighted on-base average (wOBA), the Red Sox have created a total of 266 runs. Only the Evil Empire has been more potent, with 271 runs created. The problem has been pitching. In addition to a tepid performance by the bullpen (4.65 xFIP, 11th in the AL), Sox starters have a collective 4.54 xFIP. That’s just 10th in the Junior Circuit. There are several reasons for the weak showing  — Beckett’s back, Matsuzaka’s neck and subsequent pain-in-the-neck starts — but John Lackey’s lackluster work surely hasn’t helped.

The 31-year-old  inked a five-year, $82.5 million contract this past off-season. Despite cutting an imposing figure on the mound, Lackey established himself as one of the better starters in the majors by displaying decent K rates buoyed by excellent control.

Entering 2010, L.A.’s second-round pick in the 1999 draft had 7.2 K/9, 2.64 BB/9 and a sub-four xFIP during his big league career. Lackey was a horse from 2003-2007, averaging nearly 211 innings pitched and  4.7 Wins Above Replacement per season. He was still very productive in 2008 (3.88 xFIP) and 2009 (3.92 xFIP), but the 6-6, 245 pound right-hander served DL stints for a triceps strain in 2008 (163.1 IP) and a forearm strain in 2009 (176.1 IP). And, though his K rate hadn’t declined, opponents began to make more contact with his stuff.

Even so, PECOTA, CHONE and ZiPS all projected that Lackey would at least be an asset in 2010:

Preseason Projections

PECOTA: 142 IP, 6.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.66 ERA

CHONE: 186 IP, 6.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 3.92 ERA

ZiPS: 195 IP, 7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.02 ERA

Instead, Lackey has a 4.84 ERA over his first 61.1 frames with the Red Sox. And he hasn’t been unlucky — he has just been bad. Big John has 5.14 K/9, 4.4 BB/9 and a 5.26 xFIP. Rather than pitching like a top-of-the-rotation arm, Lackey currently languishes in the same company as Livan Hernandez, Joe Saunders and Nate Robertson in terms of starter xFIP.

Those aforementioned contact rates have spiked in Beantown. Opponents are getting the bat on the ball 85.8 percent of the time against Lackey this season, well above his 80.4 percent career average and the 80-81 percent MLB average. During his big league tenure, Lackey has gotten swinging strikes 8.9 percent of the time — slightly above the MLB norm. This year? Lackey has a 5.7 percent swinging strike rate.

Throughout his career, Lackey generally hasn’t shown a large platoon split – he has a 3.96 xFIP against right-handed batters and a 4.13 xFIP versus lefties. While a couple of months’ worth of platoon splits can’t be taken as proof of some massive, permanent change, Lackey is getting lashed by left-handers in 2010. He’s giving up many more fly balls than usual against righties (40.4 percent career average), which has led to lots of long balls:

vs. RHB: 26.1 IP, 6.84 K/9, 1.71 BB/9, 49.4 FB%, 1.71 HR/9, 4.50 xFIP

vs. LHB: 35 IP, 3.86 K/9, 6.43 BB/9, 31.1 FB%, 0.51 HR/9, 5.83 xFIP

In 2009, Lackey pounded the strike zone against southpaws with his four-seam fastball and curveball:

With Boston, his go-to pitch against lefties has been the cutter — a pitch that almost no one whiffs at. It’s missing the mark often, as are his four-seamer, sinker and seldom-used changeup. Compounding matters, Lackey’s whiff rate with the curve has dropped versus left-handed batters:

Overall, Lackey’s high-70’s curveball has been one of the worst pitches in the game this season. According to Fangraphs’ Pitch Type Values, Lackey’s hammer has been worth +0.86 runs per 100 pitches thrown since 2002. In 2010, however, the curve is getting crushed for a –2.61 runs/100 value.

Is it time to get concerned about Lackey? It could be, particularly when it comes to his inability to fool hitters. He has faced 272 batters in 2010, and has gotten a strikeout in 12.9 percent of those plate appearances. For comparison, Lackey has an 18.6 K%/PA during his career, and the AL average is 17.7 percent this season. Changes in a pitcher’s rate of strikeouts per plate appearance become reliable in short order — after about 150 batters faced. It’s probably too early to comment on Lackey’s inflated walk rate (walks per PA doesn’t become reliable until about 550 batters faced), but his control certainly bears watching as well.

Perhaps Lackey will rebound and salvage his first season in Boston — ZiPS projects 6.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 4.02 FIP for the rest of the year. However, his declining K rate, increased contact levels and recent health history suggest that the Red Sox might come to regret the long-term commitment to Lackey.