Francisco Liriano will absolutely get a few Cy Young votes, but Felix Hernandez, Trevor Cahill, and CC Sabathia are all likely to outpace him, so it looks like it will be an award-less year for the Twins.

Unless.

The last time a Twin won rookie of the year was some 15 years ago when Marty Cordova won the title for the 1995 Twins—then promptly taught fans what “plantar fasciitis” was and what it could do to even a talented player. They’ve had plenty of talented players since then, but Mauer was hurt his rookie year, Liriano was as well, and the rest had to grow into their skills. Could 2010 be the year they get their first since the 21^st century began?

Their hopes rest on Danny Valencia, a 19^th round pick out of the University of Miami, who made his debut on June 3, but didn’t see consistent action until the middle of July. It took injuries to the entire Twins infield—Morneau, Orlando Hudson, Alexi Casilla, and Nick Punto have all had at least one DL stint sometime between July 1 and the middle of August, while JJ Hardy missed substantial time due to a lingering wrist injury—to get Valencia the playing time he needed to make an impact.

Valencia became an everyday player on July 24, going 3-for-5 against the Orioles in game one of a four game stretch that saw him go 14-for-19 including a grand slam off Zack Greinke. Going into Wednesday night’s game against the Tigers, Valencia is hitting .338/.373/.496 since he forced his way into Ron Gardenhire’s day-to-day lineup and .328/.373/.446 overall since his call-up.

His defense, too, has been impressive as Valencia has made few rookie mistakes at third base and has amassed a solid UZR, albeit in too few innings to call it a full sample. Assuming he continues to play solid defense—something he did in the minors as well—he’ll finish 2010 among the best defenders in the majors at 3B (though behind Nick Punto…whatever that means).

Valencia wouldn’t crack the top five in the National League, not with Buster Posey, Jason Heyward, Steven Strasburg, Starlin Castro, and Gabby Sanchez locking down a tight race, but the AL race is much more open. And the lack of a truly obvious choice is what gives Valencia hope.

He already boasts the fourth highest VORP (value over replacement player) among rookies in the AL, despite having the second fewest plate appearances. Carlos Santana currently ranks third, but it seems unlikely that he’ll garner enough votes—stellar though he was while he played—because of his season ending injury, which leaves Valencia with two real competitors ahead of him and one serious threat behind him.

Brennan Boesch is Valencia’s nearest competitor, and if he had maintained his performance from the first half over the course of a full season, he’d be running away with this race.

His first-half line of .342/.397/.593 was a product of some combination of moderate skill, being an unknown commodity, and a whole bunch of luck. His .384 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was ripe for regression, but who knew it would be so…stark. His BABIP in the second half fell to .191 as part of an overall drop in production that left him with a line of .153/.220/.227 and severely crippled his chances of winning the ROY. Nevertheless, his solid production isn’t going away and voters may still look favorably upon his contribution at the time when the Tigers’ injury woes were near their worst.

Rays catcher John Jaso is something of a dark horse in this race, as he wasn’t even listed among the Rays top 15 prospects heading into the season. Still, as the starting catcher for a team likely headed for a playoff berth and a possible AL East title, Jaso has earned the publicity he’s receiving. He’s hitting .280/.388/.396, which shows you his greatest strength as well as his biggest weakness.

Jaso’s plate discipline is outstanding; he’s walked some 47 times while striking out just 32 times in over 320 PAs, but he has just 21 extra-base hits over that same period. Jaso has the extra advantage of being a catcher, voters do love a catcher that hits well, but his OPS of 783 isn’t much above average (733) despite the fact that his OBP of .388 is vastly superior to the league average of .327.

While it’s possible that Jaso could win the award because of his position and increased visibility, it seems unlikely to me. He might have done enough to earn it in a down year, but voters have shown that they consider power an integral part of the equation when voting for any award and that’s not Jaso’s strong suit.

The front-runner here is another Tiger rookie, he of the .417 BABIP, Austin Jackson. While he may not have made fans forget about Curtis Granderson, he’s given them enough highlight reel material to make them hopeful for the future. Ultimately, it’s Jackson’s award to lose at this point. His defense has been better than expected and he’s been an offensive machine at the top of the Tigers’ lineup. He strikes out way too much, an AL best 138 going into play Wednesday, but that’s about the only bad thing you can say about the center fielder.

Jackson has had luck on his side—see his aforementioned BABIP—but his skill is no joke. His .304/.357/.406 line with 21 steals isn’t the product of a single hot month, or even one good half. Jackson started the year with a .364/.422/.495 in the months of March and April and while he’s cooled off just a little from there, he’s been a consistent hitter and a solid fielder for a Detroit team that has needed consistent production as their lineup has been in flux to say the least.

If the voting happened now, Jackson runs away with the award and you’d be hard pressed to say he didn’t deserve it, but Valencia has a chance to sway some voters because of the Twins battle in the AL Central.

Valencia doesn’t really have a chance to steal this award. The only way he’ll be the first Twin this millennium to win the ROY is if he continues to hit near .330, play stellar defense, and flash a little power. If he does that, he’ll deserve the award on his own merits, given that his performance will be on par with Jackson, albeit in fewer games. Like Jaso, simply being a key piece of a winning team won’t be enough to push Valencia over the edge, but with the AL Central looking like it will be a race worth watching deep into September, Valencia will get a chance to woo voters who might have missed his earlier exploits.

Strasmas (hat tip to @SacksJacked) has become baseball’s newest Holliday (or Halladay if you prefer) and Tuesday will mark the first time it’s celebrated. Strasburg’s starts will still be specticles for the rest of the season, but nothing will match the must-see caliber of his first.

But Strasburg isn’t the first can’t miss prospect baseball has seen—he’s the first of the Twitter era, but that’s another matter entirely. Here are a few other starters whose debuts were media circuses.

Mark Prior (W, 6IP, 4H, 2ER, 2BB, 10K)

Before there was Strasburg, there was Prior. A can’t miss arm out of USC, an ace from the day he touched the mound, the Cubs’ new star, and the man who would make the Twins rue the day they’d ever heard of Joe Mauer. We know how the story ends, but it certainly didn’t start poorly.

Much like Strasburg, Prior opened her career with a dominating victory over the Pirates. He gave up a single to the first hitter he faced, but retired the second hitter on a bunt, and struck out the next two, stranding the runner at second base. Despite a strong start, it would prove to be a fairly middling performance as far as the rest of his season was concerned. I’d never wish the end of Prior’s career on Strasburg, but he could certainly do worse than to open his time in the majors the way Prior did.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (W, 7IP, 6H, ER, BB, 10K)

The Royals were the opponent du jour when the Japanese sensation, who was rumored to throw everything but a kitchen sink at opponents, made his first official start in the US. While the pitcher himself was a sight to see, many people were hoping to catch a glimpse of the fabled gyroball, which stayed in the land of myth during that start and indeed for the rest of Dice-K’s career. A sixth inning home run by David DeJesus was the only mar on his record for the day. Fun Fact: Zack Greinke took the loss in that game.

Matsuzaka has been something of a disappointment because of his inconsistency as well as a few injuries, but he hasn’t been too bad for the Red Sox.

David Price (ND, 5.1IP, 4H, 2R, 1ER, 3BB, 3K)

Price wasn’t as heralded by the media, but he was the first overall pick in the 2007 draft, so there was certainly anticipation for his appearance. Unlike the other two, Price’s start came as part of a September call-up. He’d already made one extended appearance previously, but his first start came on September 22.

Had Price been able to finish the sixth inning, he would have recorded a win, as the Rays would take the lead in the seventh inning, but it was not to be. Price opened 2009 in the minors as the Rays played with his service clock, and wasn’t particularly compelling in his debut that season either, but his second start showed what he was capable of. He stuckout 11 Twins in just 5.2 innings en route to his first professional win.

Tommy Hanson (ND, 6IP, 6H, 7R, 6ER, BB, 5K)

Hanson was a 22nd round pick, but had his stock rise like a rocket during his time in the minors to the point that Baseball America listed him as their fourth best minor leaguer before the 2009 season.

His debut was a mess and a half. He allowed seven baserunners and seven runs, meaning he stranded exactly no one. On one hand, that’s a very bad number, but it’s also an unsustainable one, and one that would almost certainly improve. Improve it did, as he didn’t allow more than four runs again until May 15 of this season. Over his next four starts, he went 4-0, allowed two runs, and struck out 13. Opposing hitters hit just .216 off of him and not a single one took him deep.

Unless the Nationals go on a crazy tear and make the playoffs, this will be Strasburg’s most closely watched start for quite a long time, but it’s important to keep it all in perspective. Matsuzaka has been up and down since that fantastic start and is now no better than the Sox’s third starter; Hanson has been phenomenal since his stinker of a start last season; Prior dominated for awhile, but fell out of baseball shortly thereafter, so there’s nothing about this one start that is in anyway determinative of Strasburg’s future.

Still, because the media frenzy is already in full swing, I hope for his own sake that Strasburg slaughters the Pirates. No one should have to hear that he’s overhyped after one start, even if it’s probably true.

Wednesday night’s multiple incidents of Adventures in Umpiring—the more famous one in Detroit and the one that actually cost a team a game in Seattle—have once again brought the debate about instant replay out of the shadows and into the public spectrum. In a statement released Thursday, Bud Selig said that he would once again revisit the idea of expanded replay, perhaps with one of his patented Blue-Ribbon Committees, which have been bastions of the status quo in the past.

My thoughts on instant replay have changed over the past 48 hours or so. I still think baseball is ill-suited in many ways to having plays changed, but hearing from Tim Tschida that the rulebook already includes a provision for umpires to place runners at their discretion if a call or lack thereof caused confusion on the field makes me a little less nervous about that possibility. Hearing the pain in Jim Joyce’s voice when he talked about costing Galarraga his perfect game makes me give more credence to the idea that adding instant replay wouldn’t be an affront to the umpires, but would almost be an act of mercy.

Instant replay as we know it—as it’s used in football, hockey, and basketball—doesn’t actually remove the human element from games. Hockey and basketball utilize replay to see what the human eye typically can’t, things like tenths of seconds or inches to determine if a puck crossed the line or a shooter released the ball. The vast majority of the game is still governed by referees who miss calls, swallow whistles, or play advantages at their whim. Football allows coaches to instigate some challenges, but not those which call into question the referees’ judgment.

The line between factual calls, those which are typically reviewable, and judgment calls that are not is especially fine in baseball. Galarraga’s play looked as though it would have been a simple reversal, but what if Jason Donald had been a half-step faster. The ball still would have beaten him to the base, but now the call is much, much closer. Is that a factual call or a judgment call? The same is true for catches being made in the outfield; there is a factual component, but there’s also a judgment required: Did the fielder hold on to the ball long enough to be called a catch?

At some point, there will be a codification of what can and cannot be reviewed in baseball just like there was in the NFL when they implemented replay, but no system is perfect, and deluding ourselves into believing that replay is a panacea is just that: delusional. This doesn’t mean that replay shouldn’t be expanded, just that fans need to have a realistic view of what is and is not likely to change.

But in my various ponderings and jottings, I find myself wondering to what extent a perfect system would be desirable. Consider one well known adage and two things I heard in the past month on Chicago sports radio:

You can call holding on every play.
When I asked my more hockey-savvy friends what the hockey equivalent to these phenomenon was, it took about 10 seconds for them to answer that interference could be called on nearly every play, but isn’t.

Who is Phil Jackson fooling? Everyone carries the ball, not just Nash.

That’s just Buehrle’s motion. It might be a balk by the book, but they’ve never called it before.

The point is, we’ve grown accustomed to looking past certain penalties or calls with the knowledge that sometimes the game is better because of it. I hate the amount of traveling in basketball, but the fact that it’s never called is what allows people like Rajon Rondo and Allen Iverson to perfect moves that allow them to blow by defenders and glide to the hoop. For better or worse, that kind of quickness and athleticism has become the hallmark of the NBA.

Closer to home, as far as this site’s content is concerned, might be someone like Greg Maddux. One of my favorite things about watching control pitchers, especially those at the very top of their game like Maddux, is watching as they get both hitters and umpires to expand the strike zone over the course of the course of the game. If we move to a Pfx-based system, it either is or it ain’t, there’s no massaging the system. You can decide for yourself whether or not that’s a good thing, but it seems to be worth noting that not all incorrect calls are blown.

I don’t hold much love for the current system. I’m still in favor of expanded replay, but I think there’s a serious discussion to be had about whether we want a perfect and complete enforcement of the current rulebook. If the answer is no, then we either need to accept the fact that when we pay professionals to selectively enforce the rules for the good of the game is going to go awry sometimes or to revisit the rulebook itself.

Hitters and starting pitchers chosen via WARP-1 for the deserving team. All data current through the 5/23 games. The NL’s DH is the position player with the highest WARP-1 that already has someone at his position.

Now to the squads. New players are in bold, the left column is who should be there, the right is who has been voted into that position:

C: Miguel Olivo, COL—–Yadier Molina, STL
1B: Joey Votto, CIN —– Albert Pujols, STL
2B: Chase Utley, PHI —– SAME
SS: Ian Desmond, WAS —– Jimmy Rollins, PHI
3B: David Wright, NYM —– Placido Polanco, PHI

OF: Andre Ethier, LAD —– Jayson Werth, PHI
OF: Ryan Braun, MIL —– SAME
OF: Jason Heyward, ATL —– Shane Victorino, PHI

DH: Martin Prado, ATL — vote totals not released

Starting with the DH, I know that voting for the position is nigh impossible. I’m guessing the position will come from first base for a couple reasons, but primarily because it’s an obvious position of power where the NL boasts plenty of solid options beyond the starter and necessary backup. Even if they took Pujols, Votto, and Howard as the first baseman, would anyone be morally opposed to Adam Dunn or Adam LaRoche at DH? Heck, you can argue that Dunn ought to be a DH anyway. Still, with a set of really good options at second base—Prado being the top of the non-Utley class—someone is getting ripped off.

Miguel Olivo has been toiling in obscurity in Colorado, which is a shame, as he’s been really good this season. Zack Greinke credited Olivo with some of his success last year and he’s as good offensively as most other backstops in the National League. Molina hasn’t been as good this year as he has in the past. His saving grace here is that he’s been really consistent over the past few seasons, unlike other stars like Brian McCann or Russell Martin, but that’s not really good enough when someone like Olivo is playing as well as he is.

Olivo deserves those votes, but he’s been killed by playing on the west coast and by splitting time with Chris Iannetta. I’m not sure what he can do to raise his profile other than to go on a long hot streak. He’s gotten big hits, he’s shut down opponents’ running (12 steals against him, 15 runners caught), and he’s controlling pitchers well. Molina, too, shuts down opposing runners, but he does so more by his reputation these days. He’s caught 11 of the 18 runners that have tested him this year, but it’s more impressive to me that just 18 have run against him. Again, Molina hasn’t been up to his normal standards, and while he hasn’t been bad, he really doesn’t deserve this spot.

First base comes as no surprise. Yeah, Pujols hasn’t been great in May, but as recently as two weeks ago, he was the NL best at first anyway. Even if he were mired in an Aramis Ramirez-esque slump, he’d get this spot as the brightest start in the league. Votto deserves this spot right now, but he’ll get a reserve call, as will Ryan Howard.

Third base surprises me, probably more than anyone else on this list—not because the leader doesn’t deserve it—but because it may show that Mets fans aren’t in love with David Wright. There’s no reason he should be getting outvoted, especially since Polanco has cooled a bit since his hot start to the season. I’m not going to dig too deep here, since psychology wasn’t my major and I don’t live in the area, I just find it curious that the Mets’ biggest star isn’t winning the vote.

The outfield choices are solid, Victorino is worst of the bunch, but even he’s been pretty good to start this year. I’m very surprised that Ethier is fourth given the way he started this year, Heyward in sixth is surprisingly low for a guy who has the benefit of massive hype AND a strong start.

The biggest disappointment at this position is that Andrew McCuthen isn’t even in the top 15. He’s one of the 25 best players in the National League, irrespective of position, but he’s hidden behind Carlos Gomez. He’s certainly hurt by a smaller market and by the fact that everyone just assumes the Pirates are unwatchably bad and thus miss players like McCutchen and Garrett Jones.

This brings us to shortstop. The NL has a bunch of players all at about the same level, including Desmond, Stephen Drew, Troy Tulowitzki, and even someone like Omar Infante. You might notice Jimmy Rollins’ name not being listed in that set, and that’s not an editorial decision to make a point, Rollins is nowhere near the level of these other guys.

But, you may rightly point out, Rollins is hitting the ball pretty well this year—.341/.462/.643—so clearly he’s a good player. This is true, but he’s played in exactly 12 games. Rollins’ situation is very similar to Josh Hamilton’s election last year, when he managed to snag a spot on the AL roster despite playing in 35 games from April to July, but it does have at least one difference: Rollins is one of the NL’s bona fide stars at shortstop. He’s not in the Jeter-Pujols class of stars, but he’s close.

I’m on the fence here. On the one hand, he is a big name, on the other, he really doesn’t deserve it at this point. That said, perhaps he’ll continue his good start to the season when he returns from his second stint on the disabled list and make the voters look prescient. The difference between him and the player I shredded yesterday, Mark Teixeira, is that while Tex definitely doesn’t deserve to go right now, but the jury is still out on Rollins.

All in all, with the exception of Molina as the catcher and Rollins at shortstop, there’s not a lot to harp on here, and even Rollins may yet redeem himself. The takeaway here is that if you are an avid All-Star voter, give Olivo some love, he’s definitely earned it.

As always, Hitters and starting pitchers chosen via WARP-1, relievers via WXRL for the deserving team. All data current through the 5/24 games. The NL’s DH is the position player with the highest WARP-1 that already has someone at his position.

Now to the squads. New players are in bold, the left column is who should be there, the right is who has been voted into that position:

C: Joe Mauer, MIN —– SAME
1B: Justin Morneau, MIN —— Mark Teixeira, NYY
2B: Robinson Cano, NYY —— SAME
SS: Elvis Andrus, TEX —— Derek Jeter, NYY
3B: Evan Longoria, TB —— SAME

OF: Franklin Gutierrez, SEA —– Ichiro Suzuki, SEA
OF: Carl Crawford, TB —– SAME
OF: Vernon Wells, TOR —– Nelson Cruz, TEX

DH: Vladimir Guerrero, TEX —– SAME

By and large, I’m pleased. Joe Mauer, Robbie Cano, and Evan Longoria are the right choices. Alex Rodriguez is close, but not quite at Longoria’s level and the current voting reflects that; they’re locked into a close battle, and by the time the squads are chosen, they may well flip-flop.

I’m not too worried about the outfield either. Cruz missed my list on a coinflip between him and Vernon Wells, so that easily could be another correct vote. However, given that Wells is the 11th highest vote getter, but the AL’s third or fourth best outfielder, clearly something is rotten.

But the Wells/Cruz difference is nothing compared to Ichiro scamming teammate Franklin Gutierrez out of a spot. Ichiro is the leading vote getter by just under 50,000 votes. Gutirerrez, best in the AL so far, isn’t in the reported sample. He’s lower than Julio Bourbon, he’s lower than Curtis Granderson, who has missed half of the sample period due to injury. Gutierrez has been worth nearly two full wins more than Ichiro, yet can’t buy a vote. Yes, this is a philosophical point, Ichiro is more famous than Gutierrez and nets votes for that, but it’s a shame when the AL’s best can’t win a spot.

Though it is not the biggest shame. No, that honor goes to Mark Teixeira, the chronic slow starter who is mired in one of his worst first halves ever. He’s replacement level right now, nominally better than Randy Winn, and one of the 10 worst players to put on the pinstripes this year. He shouldn’t be getting anyone’s votes: he’s not the hands-down star that Ichiro or someone like Albert Pujols is. He’s a notable player because he’s produced in the past and because he plays in a populous place, but he is not producing now and shouldn’t be rewarded for that.

I’ll willingly admit that part of my dismay here is due to the fact that Justin Morneau—the player Tex is currently beating—is a favorite of mine. However, the fact remains that he’s been one of the only players to appear on all three versions of this list. He’s the highest ranked player in the AL in WARP—tied with Robbie Cano at 3.3 wins—boasting the highest VORP in all of baseball, playing for a team leading its division, and he’s still 140,000 votes behind Tex. Perhaps voters have suddenly decided to vote based on defense, where Tex has a theoretical advantage? Not so, as Morneau has the high UZR among first baseman.

This isn’t the same philosophical point about stardom as was the case between Gutierrez and Ichiro. Tex isn’t vastly more recognizable than Morneau, and while his career line is better (.287/.376/.538) is better than Morneau’s (.285/.358/.510), we’re not talking about serious differences here.

When it comes to the most recognizable players in baseball, I find it hard to get riled up about their inclusion. Do I fault the average fan for voting for Jeter ahead of Elvis Andrus? Not really. Andrus is in second place, and while he deserves to be at the game (and will be for many years after Jeter retires), it is what it is. When the voting comes down strictly to market size, that’s when I cry foul.

Big daddy Vlad is really the only choice as the DH for the AL. It’s been a rough year for a lot of them, but Vlad has been resurgent. He’s ahead of Hideki Matsui by a little under 100,000 votes, and I expect that to expand by the time final tallies are in.

I’ll be back tomorrow to look at the NL votes once they are released.

Well, not quite. Jon Rauch has filled in admirably for Joe Nathan, posting a 1.28 WXRL so far, which is good for fifth in the American League. The closer hasn’t been the Twins’ issue, but it does relate to some of their troubles. It’s easy to look at the numbers and say that the Twins don’t really have an issue. Ron Mahay’s been passable, Jose Mijares is on his way back to form, and those things are true, but there’s a reason that 1-2 run leads in the seventh and eighth innings don’t feel as secure as they ought to.

Due in no small part to Rauch’s move from short relief to closing, the backend of the Twins’ pen is a little thin. Matt Guerrier is still eminently capable of returning to the dominant form he showed in 2009, and he hasn’t been bad in 2010—unless he’s facing A-rod—but he’s still rounding into form. Brian Duensing has been quite solid in his 16 innings of work, surprisingly so, but there are valid concerns about his ability to handle the position for a full year.

Jesse Crain is the reliever who is leaving me with egg on my face. He’s barely above replacement level right now and has been hard-pressed to string two good appearances. He’s been effective at some points, and simply tragic in others, which makes him too big a risk to use in high leverage situations. Not that that’s stopped manager Ron Gardenhire from using him in those situations, but the results haven’t always been pretty.

Jeff Manship has been called up, giving the Twins 13 pitchers for the time being. This should tell you two things, first, that the Twins aren’t satisfied with their current relief corps. Second, someone is going back down to Triple-A when J.J. Hardy comes off the disabled list.

It’s unlikely to be Manship, as the Twins aren’t usually the “three day call-up” types, especially since Manship won’t be making a spot start or anything like that. Rumor and innuendo have Jesse Crain making an early summer move down to Rochester, which, if it works anything like last year’s sojourn in the minors did, will do him a world of good. My gut feeling is that it will be Pat Neshek who goes down, based less on performance than on the fact that he’s run afoul of the team on a couple of accounts lately. This is not to say he’s been unassailably sharp, he could probably use consistent innings for a while to get his feel back, but he could easily remain with the team and get what he needs. Neshek would need to be activated from the disabled list to be optioned, but that’s just paper shuffling.

Whether it is Crain, as most expect, or Neshek who go down, there is need for someone to step in a provide an option for Gardenhire a reliable option in high leverage situations before the ninth inning, and Anthony Slama could be that guy.

Twins fans have been watching Slama since late 2008, as the right-hander saved some 25 games for Class-A Fort Myers, but perhaps more impressively, struck out 110 in 71 innings of work at the back end of the Miracle’s bullpen.

2009 saw him split time between Double-A New Britain, where he saved another 25 games and posted a 12.8 K/9 in 65 1/3rd innings of work. He struggled a little bit when he moved up to Triple-A at the end of the year, though 15 2/3rd innings of work isn’t really enough to make a judgment.

Slama showed up in camp this spring not on the Twins’ 40-man roster and knowing that he’d need to pitch well to make the team. He didn’t pitch as well as he was capable of pitching, but due to injuries and Jose Mijares’ weight/vision/showing up late/ineffectiveness, he was one of the very last players cut from the team, even traveling north to play the Target Field exhibition opener.

Since his demotion, Slama has been pretty much unhittable. His strikeout numbers are down once again (down to 10 strikeouts per nine innings, which is a career low, but still good), but in 25 1/3rd innings, he’s allowed just 10 hits and five runs, giving him an ERA of 1.78 and a WHIP of 0.79. He’s splitting time as the Redwings closer with Rob Delaney, so he’s amassed just eight saves, but that’s not of particular concern.

The numbers are there, they’ve always been there, but the fact that it’s been three years that he’s shown an ability to miss bats despite pretty average stuff that finally has scouts talking.

I asked Kevin Goldstein about Slama near the deadline last year and he told me that the general consensus was that Twins fans were irrationally exuberant about Slama. The comments in the BP annual agree, further noting that he’s been old for his league and lacked a true wipeout pitch, which most good closers have.

One concern with bringing up Slama and giving him the 8th inning job—besides that he simply won’t be able to hack it—is that his style is too similar to Rauch’s. Both pitchers are known for mixing their fastball and slider, Rauch includes a changeup and curveball, but neither are overpowering pitchers. Both have similar velocities on their fastballs, and as such, hitters could begin to key in to what one or the other is going to try to do. This stands to hurt Rauch more than Slama, since Rauch will be facing the hitters after they’ve seen Slama rather than the other way around.

The reason I’m not stressing this similarity is that it’s largely immaterial. Yes, their fastballs do top out at about 92, and both are going to attack the zone with offspeed pitches, but each pitcher has a distinct style on the mound.

Sunday’s theatrics aside, Rauch isn’t a huge strikeout pitcher. His 7.2 K/9 is right in line with his career average, and while his K/BB is three times what it’s been in past years, that’s due to a drop in his walk rate. Rauch is looking to induce weak contact and get groundballs, which he’s done better so far this year than in any year in his career by a fairly wide margin. When he’s doing that, he’s effective.

Slama, even armed with a similar repertoire and desire to get groundballs, isn’t at his best unless he’s striking opposing hitters out. The same hitter could face both pitchers consecutively and see similar pitches in very different locations as each pitcher tried to work out his plan.

Obviously, throwing Slama untested into a set-up role isn’t ideal, but after a week or two of low-leverage duty, he ought to be ready to move into his more familiar end-of-game situations. However. if the Twins wanted to see what he was capable of without giving him the reigns to the 7th or 8th inning, they could use him in a platoon with Mijares, who is murder on lefties. Slama can get out hitters irrespective of their handedness, but he’s as hard on righties as Mijares is on port-siders. As a platoon, they’d be tough to reach base against, let alone score runs on.

Some have speculated that the fact that Slama isn’t on the 40-man roster is part of the reason he’s being kept in Triple-A, but with 40-man spot holders Clay Condrey and Estarlin De Los Santos squandering their spots, finding him a place wouldn’t be terribly difficult.

Given his success so far in the minors and the Twins’ need for a late inning option, it’s hard to believe that he wouldn’t get his call at some point in the near future. It may seem unfair to saddle him with the late inning, potentially high-leverage situations at this point in his career, but he’s thrived in that role in the past. If the Twins feel like he can make a contribution in that role, they should see if he can do it during the early part of the season. If he can, they’ll have him in place for tough division games down the sretch. If he can’t, if major league hitters simply aren’t fooled by his heavy fastball and offspeed pitches, far better to find out when it will only cost the team 3-4 games in June rather than higher value games down the stretch.

I have no problem with the fact that Slama didn’t get called up last fall or that he didn’t make the team out of camp. But now that it’s clear Crain isn’t going to be a late inning answer and that there is a gap to fill ahead of Rauch, it seems only logical to give Slama the call-up he’s earned.

2009 started off really poorly for Young. He hit .241/.276/.315 with a 15/2 K/BB ratio in April and .236/.288/.236 with a 22/3 rate in May. I spilled plenty of ink looking at what his mother’s death in early May might have meant for him, but it doesn’t change the fact that he couldn’t select a pitch to hit and if he got lucky enough to hit one, he didn’t do anything with it.

The second half of the year saw Young turn a corner. From July first on, Young hit .306/.329/.511 with 10 HR. He still wasn’t drawing many walks and was striking out too much—his K/BB ratio was 37/7—but the Twins’ late season surge wouldn’t have been possible if Young hadn’t gotten hot the way he did.

The memory of the end of 2009 and the news over the offseason that Young had lost some 30 pounds raised expectations for what 2010 would hold. He opened the season by going 2-for-4 with a home run and a stolen base (he’d had two all of 2009) and many took it as a sign of a good season to come.

But the rest of April was unkind to Delmon. His K/BB rate was much, much better (8/7) and his defense improved as well, but he finished the 19 games he appeared in with a line of .222/.292/.381, 2 HR, and 2SB. Is that terrible? Not really, it’s not great, but at least he was drawing a walk every now and again. But the rhetoric surrounding Young has changed. He’s no longer demonized for every little mistake like he once was. I believe there’s an effort being made to like Young that there wasn’t before.

There’s ample reason to believe that his April will give way to better year.

First, his BABIP is .218, compared to a league average of .300 and his career average of .336. Just as Austin Jackson’s BABIP of .500 and Ivan Rodriguez’s of .430 are certain to come down, Young’s is certain to rise up.

Second, he’s a chronic slow starter. He may not show the turnaround that Mark Teixeira does, but Young has a similar profile. For his career, he’s hit .278/.314/.392 in the first half of the season and .300/.335/.424 in the second half. And of his lesser first half, the worst month is April, so there’s a pattern here that will likely bear out again in 2010.

But what should the expectations for Delmon be? They’ve obviously dropped quite a bit from his prospect days, or his .222/.292/.381 April wouldn’t be seen as hopeful in any way. Every time I ask myself what his ceiling should be, I’m torn between a .300-.310 hitter with 20 HR power, which would be a welcome player on any team—though perhaps not in a corner outfield position—and wanting more from him. The Twins gave up a potential ace for him, they clearly were hoping for someone that was going to be equally influential.

PECOTA’s 90th percentile projection, his ceiling if you will, is .324/.368/.510 with 21 HR and 10 steals. Clearly, PECOTA wasn’t guessing that Young would develop anything resembling plate discipline, which is entirely reasonable considering the fact that he hasn’t exactly been choosy at any level before this year. But he is both striking out less and walking more, so if he hits .324, he’ll get on base closer to .380, but that’s semantics more than anything.

To get even to that 20 home run level, Young will need to start hitting balls in the air, which is something of a prerequisite for round trippers. He’s beating balls into the ground at a 50 percent clip and hitting more infield pop-ups than usual, neither of which lend themselves to power, which is what the Twins really need from Young.

It’s all good and well that he’s getting his OBP and average up, truly it is, but even if he gets on at that .368 rate, that’d be sixth on the team right now. Simply getting on base ahead of Brendan Harris and Nick Punto won’t do him much good. No, what the Twins need and want from Young is power, even if it comes at the cost of some of those hits and walks. I don’t know whether 25+ home runs is a realistic expectation for Young, but that would certainly be ideal for a right-handed hitter at the bottom of the Twins’ lineup.

Given the improvements Young has shown this year, and his history as a slow starter, I think something in the .295/.355/.480 seems like an appropriate, if hopeful, expectation for Young. If he can show some of the power he flashed at the end of last year on top of his improved defense and better plate discipline, 2010 could go a long way toward helping Young reclaim his status as a young player worth watching.

Even so, I can’t help but feel like that’s underselling what he’s capable of. Hope springs eternal, I suppose.

As always, Hitters and starting pitchers chosen via WARP-1, relievers via WXRL. All data current through the 5/6 games. Players are changing more slowly than they were, but two bad games can sunder a hitter at this point, and one bad start is still enough to taint an otherwise positive sample. The NL’s DH—now a permanent fixture of the All-Star Game, thank goodness—is the position player with the highest WARP-1 that already has someone at his position.

Now to the squads, new players are in bold:

AL:

C: Joe Mauer, MIN
1B: Justin Morneau, MIN
2B: Robinson Cano, NYY
SS: Cliff Pennington, OAK
3B: Evan Longoria, TB

OF: Vernon Wells, TOR
OF: Carl Crawford, TB
OF: Nelson Cruz, TEX

DH: Vladimir Guerrero, TEX

SP: John Danks, CWS
SP: Francisco Liriano, MIN
SP: Jered Weaver, ANA
SP: Matt Garza, TB
SP: Zack Greinke, KC

RP: Fernando Rodney, ANA
RP: Kevin Gregg, TOR
RP: Jonathan Papelbon, BOS
RP: Jon Rauch, MIN
RP: Brian Duensing, MIN

Big changes on the staff and the left side of the infield for the American League. Evan Longoria has been hitting the ball extremely well over his last 10 games, posting a .422/.460/.778 with 4 HR and 10 RBI, so it’s no surprise he’s moved past A-rod in the team.

I’ve looked over Pennington’s stats, and I’ve got to say, I’m unimpressed. He’s been good, don’t get me wrong, but it’s really surprising to me that he’d be the AL’s best. Hope you didn’t spend a high pick on Jason Bartlett in your fantasy draft. Pennington replaces Alex Gonzalez, who is still hitting better than almost anyone thought he would, but his .250/.318/.600 with 10 strikeouts over the last 10 days tells his story. He’s hitting the ball hard, but making less contact than he was at the beginning of the season.

John Danks and Matt Garza remain, but the rest of the AL rotation changes. Greinke’s been one of the AL’s best despite having yet to win a game, which is why he’s just fifth on this list. Francisco Liriano was just on the verge of making the team last time out, and having thrown nothing but quality starts since, he’s made it. Jered Weaver will probably make the real All-Star team as the best player on an increasingly worrying Angels squad.

The bullpen is in less flux than I’d expected, Brian Duensing claims the spot Matt Guerrier has vacated and Jonathan Papelbon wins the “closer who converted a bunch of saves in the last two weeks” award.

NL:

C: Ivan Rodriguez, WAS
1B: Albert Pujols, STL
2B: Chase Utley, PHI
SS: Stephen Drew, ARI
3B: David Wright, NYM
OF: Ryan Braun, MIL

OF: Jayson Werth, PHI
OF: Andre Ethier, LAD

DH: David Freese, STL

SP: Ubaldo Jimenez, COL
SP: Roy Halladay, PHI
SP: Livan Hernandez, WAS
SP: Roy Oswalt, HOU
SP: Mike Pelfry, NYM

RP: Tyler Clippard, WAS
RP: Luke Gregerson, SD
RP: Matt Capps, WAS
RP: Ryan Franklin, STL
RP: Matt Lindstrom, HOU

The NL lineup underwent a big change, but the upheaval brings sense. Pujols gets his proper place back at first base with a .415/.500/.610 10 game spa, though with just one home run. Chase Utley and David Wright replace Martin Prado and Placido Polanco at second and third, after the latter two’s hot starts faded. Stephen Drew displaces Juan Uribe at short, though more as a figurehead than as a real winner. Drew, Troy Tulowitzki, and Hanley Ramirez are all tied at 1.2 wins. Ramirez’s bat seems to be coming around, which would seem to give him the inside track heading into May.

The outfield, too, jumbles, with Ryan Braun the only survivor. Jayson Werth climbs to the top spot with .385/.432/.692 spin through the last two weeks, and Andre Ethier makes his first appearance despite having negative fielding marks.

David Freese showed what he could do with consistent playing time, .447/.500/.816 with 3 HR and 14 RBI in 10 games and decent defensive marks. If the Cardinals continue to run him out there everyday with this kind of success, it could be David Wright who has to hold on to the DH spot to keep his job.

The odd man out here is Kelly Johnson, who would make the team at nearly any other position, save third base. The NL’s home run leader can’t catch a break as Utley beats him out at second and Freese just clips him at DH.

I was sure the rotation would change more than it did, considering having Livan Hernandez on there was one of my reasons that voting after two weeks of games was ridiculous, but he’s just kept on pitching well, and as such, his spot is safe.

If anyone is wondering how the Nats have remained above .500, just take a look at the NL’s relievers. If they have a lead at the end of games, Clippard and Capps aren’t giving it up. Drew Storen won’t be up in time to merit All-Star consideration, but when he does join the Nats—likely later this summer—he’ll give them another piece at the backend of an already top line bullpen.

At this point, these are team’s I’d feel fairly comfortable fielding. Pennington isn’t likely to stick as the AL’s shortstop and I can’t see Freese keeping one of the NL’s solid middle infielders out of the DH spot for long, but most of the other participants are pretty believable in their performance though the first month of the season.

His longevity is probably what has impressed me most so far this young season. Last season, only 33 pitchers threw more complete games than Halladay has in his first four starts of 2010. It isn’t out of character for Halladay, who had nine complete games and four shutouts last year, but that doesn’t make it any less impressive.

Without diminishing Halladay’s achievement—and thereby hoping stave off my impending doom at the hands of Phillie fans—I have to admit that while I am impressed by Halladay’s achievements. Impressed, but I’m not surprised.

Anyone who thought that Halladay was going to go from the toughest division in professional sports to a weaker division in the weaker league and suddenly turn into Gil Meche was probably not a big Halladay fan to begin with. While there might have been an adjustment period—one that never came—by season’s end, Halladay was a near lock to put up numbers no worse than he had been posting in Toronto, and betting on an improvement would have been fairly safe money.

The pitcher I’ve been the most surprised by is Carlos Silva, though Livan Hernandez has been far better than I’d ever thought he’d be again. No, Silva gets the nod in no small part because of his inauspicious arrival in Chicago.

When Silva was dealt for Milton Bradley, I put his odds of making the Cubs’ rotation at about 20 percent, which was about 19 percent more than GM Jim Hendry did. Upon solidifying the deal that was a perfect example of “my issues for your problems,” Hendry told the Chicago Tribune, “hopefully he can (win) a spot on the team in some way.”

Things looked even worse when he showed up to camp overweight. He didn’t have a bad spring training, but the feeling was that he was probably just warming Ted Lilly’s place unless Tom Gorzelanny managed to pitch worse than Silva did in the interim.

Yet, once the season opened, Silva found the sinker that made him one of the AL’s best in 2005. Looking at his game scores, his first three starts of the season were the best of any three start stretch in his career. His quality start against the Nationals, Monday night, was his worst start of the season. It would have been his second best start of 2009 and one of his 10 best in 2008. The idea that it could be the overpaid Carlos Zambrano who would be asked to make the move to the bullpen would have been laughable, but when the time came to make the call, Silva was simply outpitching the temperamental righty.

2005 saw Silva back up Johan Santana as one of the best duos in the American League. He lost 15 games in 2006, but rebounded for an above average season in 2007. His move to Seattle was so universally reviled—thanks in no small part to his horrible contract, something for which he shouldn’t be held responsible—that it’s easy to forget that he wasn’t always the punching bag he’s become.

But you can’t blame Cubs fans if they feel like the other shoe is about to drop, since Silva hasn’t posted a positive WARP since 2007, and given that 2006’s mark was negative as well, that feels more like the aberration than the norm. Plenty of players have a hot month—especially pitchers, for whom a hot month is actually a hot five-game-stretch—but is there a chance Silva can continue his hot start?
The answer is something of a tug of war between two factors.

Working in Silva’s favor is the fact that while he was recently terrible, he was recently terrible in the American League. Depending on whose study you believe, pitchers moving from the AL to the NL will see an ERA drop of between .41 runs and .85 runs. Irrespective, it’s a substantive drop, and that the ERA will drop is a universal conclusion.

Silva will benefit from not having to face the designated hitters who feasted on him every time his sinker wasn’t moving. Sure, there are pitchers in the NL who will make him pay for the mistake, but there isn’t yet a known universe in which Dave Bush does the same thing with a flat fastball that Hideki Matsui or Vlad Guerrero would do.

Working against Silva is a nasty intersection of his worst habits and Chicago’s climate. In the summer months, Chicago gets hot and heat is one thing we know increases home run rates. Add in the westerly winds that frequently blow out to right field and even the best pitchers can find themselves with a sore neck from looking up and out.

Silva struggles when his sinker stays up in the zone, which more or less renders it an 88 mph batting-practice fastball and an easy ball to destroy for good hitters. The years he has been at his worst—2006, 2008, and 2009—his home runs rate has been well above league average: 4.7, 2.9, and 3.5 percent respectively, compared to a league average of 2.9 percent.

Over his career, Silva has allowed 72 home runs in games he went on to lose, compared to just 40 in games he won and 31 in games where he received a no-decision. Now, to a certain extent, it follows logically that Silva would lose games in which he gave up a lot of home runs, but that’s one of the clearest indicators that he doesn’t have his best stuff. If he has a hot day in June or July where he can’t locate his sinker and the wind is blowing out, there will be blood.

He’ll benefit from the high humidity that defines Chicago’s summers, as it will help keep some balls in the ballpark, but Wrigley doesn’t profile as a hitter-friendly park without cause.

Silva has the 10th highest VORP among National League pitchers, ahead of Tommy Hanson, Johan Santana, and Josh Johnson after a month’s worth of starts. As much as I’m really glad that Silva has redeemed himself in his time with the Cubs so far, I just can’t see him staying there all season. His proclivity for giving up home runs and Wrigley’s ability to exacerbate those tendencies is just too much to overcome simply because he’s pitching in the easier league. I don’t expect a regression to his career mean, but asking him to remain the Cubs’ ace is more than can reasonably expected.

That’s right, Cliff Lee has yet to throw a pitch for the Mariners, but you can vote him in if you’d like. Guys who went on the disabled list within the first few games are barely eligible to play, but hey, vote away.

Ignoring the ideological dispute about the whether the game is meant to allow the all-time greats (Ken Griffey Jr. et al.) to play together on team or if it’s to honor the first half success stories (Ben Zobrist last year), since officials seem to believe that we’re qualified to put together an All-Star team right now, I thought I’d do the public service of showing you who deserves to be in there now.

Each team was given a starting nine, a five-man rotation, and five relievers. Exact proportions would be chosen by the managers, so consider this a representative sample. Hitters and starting pitchers chosen via WARP-1, relievers via WXRL. All data current through the 4/22 games. This is relevant as if you read this on 4/25, everything could have changed. Every game matters at this point.

AL:

C: Joe Mauer, MIN
1B: Justin Morneau, MIN
2B: Robinson Cano, NYY
SS: Alex Gonzalez, TOR
3B: Alex Rodriguez, NYY

OF: Vernon Wells, TOR
OF: Nelson Cruz, TEX
OF: Carl Crawford, TB

DH: Jose Guillen, KC

SP: Joel Pineiro, ANA
SP: John Danks, CWS
SP: Doug Fister, SEA
SP: Matt Garza, TB
SP: Andy Pettite, NYY

RP: Fernando Rodney, ANA
RP: Jon Rauch, MIN
RP: Matt Guerrier, MIN
RP: Kevin Gregg, TOR
RP: David Aardsma, SEA

Actually, not a ton of shocks here. Morneau may not be the obvious choice for first base, but he’s off to a good start and it certainly isn’t going to be Teixeira with the way he started off this year. Vernon Wells is red hot, if he keeps up anything resembling this start, he’s likely to get the actual starting spot (well, not really, too many legacy outfielders for him to sneak past.)

Outfield is tough in the American Leaegue precisely because of those legacy guys. Ichiro is still doing his thing, and if that garners him an All-Star nod, so be it. Griffey might finally move to DH instead of outfield, which would free up a spot for someone like Cruz, who more than deserves it (as of right now). Torii Hunter isn’t putting up All-Star numbers yet, but even if he doesn’t improve, he’ll get a spot based on reputation.

Alex Gonzalez’s start is no small reason the Jays are off to a better start than most predicted they would be. As with his teammate, Wells, there’s no way he gets past Jeter for the starting spot, but he could be a reserve or one of the people in the dreaded final vote.

Starting pitching is so volatile that if we were to revisit these rankings in two weeks or so, which I plan to do, it is entirely possible that none of these pitchers would be on there. As it is, I suspect the only pitcher to fall off this list might be Doug Fister, but I’ve been consistently underrating him all year, so perhaps he won’t. The NL has a tighter pack as far as starters are concerned, but there are plenty of guys just behind these five, so don’t be surprised if Francisco Liriano sneaks up in there with another strong outing.

Perhaps the NL will have some bigger surprises:

NL:

C: Ivan Rodriguez, WAS
1B: Adrian Gonzalez, SD
2B: Martin Prado, ATL
SS: Juan Uribe, SF
3B: Placido Polanco, PHI

OF: Ryan Braun, MIL
OF: Josh Willingham, WAS
OF: Manny Ramirez, LAD

DH: Rickie Weeks, MIL

SP: Ubaldo Jimenez, COL
SP: Roy Halladay, PHI
SP: Mike Pelfry, NYM
SP: Livan Hernandez, WAS
SP: Tim Lincecum, SF

RP: Ryan Franklin, STL
RP: Matt Lindstrom, HOU
RP: Tyler Clippard, WAS
RP: Leo Nunez, FLA
RP: Jonathan Broxton, LAD

First things first, I gave the NL’s DH spot to the first position player who was listed at a position that was already filled. Three of the NL’s top 12 WARP scores go to second baseman, so while it isn’t the deepest position on the field, it’s certainly top heavy. It ought to tell you how good Weeks and Prado have been that Utley, who is off to an entirely adequate start are ahead of him on the charts.

Loads of surprises here. Brian McCann loses out to the NL’s best position player so far in I-rod. There’s about 100 PED jokes to be made here, but honestly, I’m just shocked he’s off to this kind of start. If the Nats are to stay relevant this season, Rodriguez will need to continue his hot start to the year.

Albert Pujols misses the boat entirely, as does Hanley Ramirez, making the top two picks in most fantasy leagues something of a disappointment. Both were on here as recently as Tuesday, but a few bad game at this stage of the season and, well, they taint your sample when it’s this small.

You’ve got to love the NL rotation of with Pelfry and Hernandez in there. Halladay was a mortal lock to make the team before the season even started, his performance hasn’t hurt those chances at all, so he’ll remain in this list even if he falls off in his next few starts (unlikely, sorry fans of other teams in the NL East).

I keep expecting Livan to remember that his sole job is to pitch 8 innings a game irrespective of quality and regress, but, well, he hasn’t. His three starts are as good as anyone’s so far, Halladay included. The other shoe will drop, oh yes, it will, but if it doesn’t for a couple weeks, he could net himself a third All-Star appearance. Worth noting, his ERA+ is a pretty solid 598 so far.

All in all, this is sort of a cross section of which teams have played well so far this year. The Twins, atop the AL Central, have four players in there. The Yankees—even without the voting advantage—have three. The Red Sox and White Sox have a combined zero. Unsurprisingly, teams that are playing well have players that are among the best at their position.

At this point, if you’re filling out All-Star ballots for Scott Podsednick, Carlos Sivla, Hernandez, or any of the other amazing hot starts, that’s your prerogative, but be prepared for them to look very, very silly in another few weeks. If they’d have opened up voting a week ago, Carl Pavano would have been in the AL rotation, but now that seems downright foolish. I, for one, would much rather see an intensive vote done about a month from now when there’s actual performance to evaluate.