Galarraga was sublime in his composure throughout the evening. He never wavered, commanding all of his pitches. He never even threatened to walk a batter, only once getting to 3 balls in a plate appearance. That he threw a complete game in 88 pitches is a feat in and of itself. When Austin Jackson made a terrific running play on Mark Grudzielanek’s shot leading off the 9th inning, Galarraga merely grinned slightly. But never was that composure more evident than in Galarraga’s immediate reaction to the call and in the aftermath.

As for Joyce, he’s devastated as well though it is little consolation to most fans. Detroit sports writer Dave Hogg, @stareagle on Twitter, interviewed Joyce after the game. He tweeted some of Joyce’s quotes:

Joyce said he didn’t know if he would try to talk to Galarraga. “I don’t know what to do. I just cost that kid a perfect game.”

“Biggest call of my career, and I kicked the s**t out of it.”

“I don’t blame the Tigers for anything that was said. I don’t blame one person a bit.”

“If I were Galarraga, I would have been the first one in my face, and he didn’t say a word to me.”

The firestorm around instant replay has been launched as have calls for reversals, scoring decision changes, and Bud Selig overruling Joyce’s call and awarding Galarraga a perfect game. Only the former has a real chance of happening. The latter would set precedents that MLB likely isn’t eager to pursue.

As for my thoughts on instant replay, I don’t know right now. I haven’t been a big proponent of it. Joyce was asked about instant replay and on this we agree tonight: “He was asked about it and said that he was having trouble thinking about anything beyond what he had just done.”

That’s the shame of it all. We’re talking about the wrong things because Jim Joyce screwed up. We should be weaving story lines about Galarraga starting the year in the minors. And Alex Avila calling a perfect game in just his 46th game behind the dish. Instead at best we can think back to Milt Wilcox and Jerry Hairston in 1983, and at worst we’ll curse Joyce’s name and talk about what he took from Galarraga and the fans. One day we can even look back and view this game as the catalyst for expanded use of instant replay. But it will never feel right or good.

Congratulations Armando. You did everything you could, and you did it with the utmost class and composure.

Bill Ferris is a contributing author at Baseball Daily Digest. His work can also be found at The Detroit Tigers Weblog, where this article originally appeared.

Willis has been turning heads due to his 1.20 ERA in all of 15 innings this spring. This has been buoyed by the fact he’s only allowed 9 hits this spring. But he is still walking a batter every other inning and not striking out enough hitters (10 in 15 innings). Without seeing the games I really have no idea if Willis is limiting hits due to fooling guys or if it has been some combination of luck and defense. Given  what we know about batting average on balls in play, I’d give more credence to the latter rather than the former.

The results for Willis are encouraging, but only if you’re comparing to his past performance. It’s one thing to be hopeful that Willis is turning a corner based on his spring play, but it is another to think he is ready to be a member of a big league rotation.

Meanwhile Robertson has pitched quite well in his 19.2 innings on the mound. Robertson has adjusted his game and is fanning a batter an inning and has walked only 1 less than Willis.  Just like Willis though we shouldn’t make too much of limited spring stats. Due to injuries and ineffectiveness neither pitcher received considerable game action in 2009, but Robertson did more with his opportunity as a starter. After getting his elbow cleaned out Robertson made 6 starts and posted a 3.86 ERA (with a 1.714 WHIP). He walked too many (4.5/9 innings) and didn’t strike out enough (5.8/9 innings) but it was still ahead of Willis.

In 7 Dontrelle starts (including his good start against the Rangers) he walked 28 in 33.2 innings and only struck out 17 while allowing a 7.49 ERA).

Both players are huge question marks, as is Bonderman. Which makes the rumors that Robertson is being shopped all the more surprising. If Robertson is moved the safety net for Willis becomes Eddie Bonine. One tier down is Armando Galarraga. The Tigers are going to have to pay Robertson regardless (they’d have to eat a big chunk of his contract). I would prefer to see him try and contribute to the Tigers.

The speculation has been that whoever doesn’t make the rotation would be released. Willis, Robertson, and Bonderman have options left, but both could refuse assignment. While I understand that none of the 3 would want to toil in the minors, the chances to have significant playing time with the Tigers are still pretty good.

A trade of Robertson would be hasty at this point. While he probably has the most trade value of the 3, the Tigers likely can’t afford to lose his arm. He has outpitched his main competitors both this spring and in recent history and is in a similar salary situation. The Tigers are carrying the payroll of a competitor and have enough talent given their division to have a shot at the playoffs. Experimenting with a questionable 5th starter for too long could prove too costly. Kind of like in 2009.

Bill Ferris is a contributing author at Baseball Daily Digest. His work can also be found at The Detroit Tigers Weblog, where this article originally appeared.

Detroit Tigers

‘09 Record: 86-77, 2^nd in AL Central
Pythagorean Record: 81-82 (+5)
Current PECOTA Projection: 79-83 (T-2^nd in AL Central)

———————-

2009 Review

The Tigers revamped their look heading into 2009. They brought in a new pitching coach and strengthened their defense by adding Adam Everett and Gerald Laird up the middle and returning Brandon Inge to third base. That part of the plan worked as the Tigers gave up 112 fewer runs than the year before, but they sacrificed nearly as much on offense and their run differential was that of a .500 team.

An average team in a weak division managed to keep things interesting and the Tigers even managed to extend their season. Unfortunately, the team only made it to game 163 before dropping the extra-inning affair and the division to the Minnesota Twins. It was a September fade reminiscent of 2006 when the Tigers surrendered first place on the last day of the season.

2010 Outlook

There was considerable upheaval in Detroit this past winter as the team tries to navigate one last payroll constrained year. With a number of immovable contracts set to come off the books after the 2010 season, the Tigers traded a couple of their more valuable players to try and get players to help over the long haul without abandoning the 2010 season.

Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson were moved in a blockbuster that netted Max Scherzer, Austin Jackson, Daniel Schlereth, and Phil Coke. Adam Everett returns at shortstop but he’ll have a new double play partner as Placido Polanco jetted to Philadelphia as a free agent.

Despite the trades, the Tigers will once again carry one of baseball’s highest payrolls. Johnny Damon and Jose Valverde were added to an expensive mix while Justin Verlander was locked up with a long term deal.

Mike Ilitch continues to invest in the Tigers, even in a region particularly hard hit by the economy. If this team doesn’t compete at the beginning of the season, will they be forced to slash payroll at the trade deadline or will the owner just hang on until the end of the season when nearly $50 million will come off the books?

2010 Team

Catcher

Gerald Laird will assume the bulk of the catching duties once again. While he was a beast behind the plate gunning down 42% of would be base stealers, he was a liability standing next to it. Laird has only caught more than 100 games twice in his career. In 2007, he caught 120 games and posted a .276 wOBA. In 2009, he caught 135 games and mustered just a .287 wOBA. The workload seems to wear him down.

Helping Laird out will be either Robinzon Diaz or Alex Avila. Avila is certainly the higher upside player, but the 2008 draft pick is still very new to the position. But he does carry a potentially decent left handed bat (264/360/450 line at AA) and he debuted with a .965 OPS in 72 big league PA’s in 2009. The question becomes whether or not the Tigers want Avila to get everyday experience at the AAA level or if he’ll carry a bigger share of the load with the big club.

Infield

The left side of the infield will have a defensive feel, the right side should provide the offense. Brandon Inge returns to third base after surgery on both knees in the off-season. Inge got off to a quick start with the bat and became an unexpected All Star. Bum wheels accelerated his decent to career norms in the second half.

A more sober and focused Miguel Cabrera is set to take the other corner. Once a liability with the glove, Cabrera proved to be at least adequate by most advanced metrics in 2009 (2.8 UZR).

The middle will be manned by Adam Everett and Scott Sizemore with Ramon Santiago covering both positions. Sizemore has hit throughout his minor league career (296/383/440 minor league career line), but has had a hard time both with the glove and the trainer’s room. He could prove to be an offensive upgrade over the departed and batting average dependent Polanco. His return to action has been hampered by recovery from a surgically repaired broken anchor suffered in the AFL.

Outfield & Designated Hitter

The Tigers don’t exactly sport the youngest set of corner outfielders. Johnny Damon and Magglio Ordonez will get the majority of the reps in left and right field with occasional stints from primary DH Carlos Guillen.

Damon won’t have the short porch to help him, but a left handed bat who can get on base respectably should help stabilize a lineup looking for new 1-2 men. Ordonez suffered through a miserable first half to rebound in the second half. He reported to camp in exceptional shape and seems intent on earning his 2011 option which kicks in at 540 plate appearances.

Austin Jackson takes over center field for the beloved Curtis Granderson. Jackson has been given the chance to earn the lead-off spot this spring and he’s running with it, literally. Manager Jim Leyland recently gave him the green light on the base paths. At the plate he has exhibited a discipline not seen in his minor league numbers and has only 4 K’s in 36 plate appearances.

Ryan Raburn will fill in at all the outfield spots and get as many at-bats as he earns. Clete Thomas, Don Kelly, Casper Wells, and Wilkin Ramirez all could get time during the 2010 season as well.

Bench

With Santiago being the prime infield back-up, and Raburn the prime outfield back-up, that only leaves one other spot available. Kelly is the early favorite to claim the utility player role. Kelly isn’t good enough defensively to stick at any one position, but he’s good enough to not embarrass himself in the field either (now that the Metrodome is closed) and he isn’t an automatic out at the plate.

Starting Rotation

Justin Verlander rebounded from his 2008 struggles to have one of the best seasons of any starter in the American League. Jim Leyland rode him for 240 innings, but Verlander didn’t seem to wear down as the season progressed and his 269 strikeouts were the 5^th highest single season total in franchise history (his 10.01 K/9 was the highest mark in Detroit history).

Verlander will be followed by Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello who both hope to build on their first full big league seasons. Porcello is a Verducci Effect candidate, but did his best pitching the last week of the 2009 season.

Scherzer will take his impressive K-rate to the AL and a quick adjustment would mean the Tigers have a solid top 3 in the rotation. It’s important because the last two spots are huge question marks.

Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, and Armando Galarraga will compete for the last two spots. All had struggles last year, and Galarraga is most likely destined for AAA due to contract and option status. Willis probably can’t spend another year on the DL for anxiety so somebody will be left out come April.

Bullpen

The Tigers have been stock piling hard throwing relievers in recent drafts. This may be the year where they start to rely on them. The Tigers weren’t going to get into a bidding war for Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon who left for set-up roles as free agents. The duo held down the back end of the bullpen effectively, but became cost prohibitive.

Now, the 9^th inning belongs to Jose Valverde who the Tigers inked to a two-year deal. Valverde brings that “veteran presence” to the closer role and provides some stability until Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Robbie Weinhardt, Cody Satterwhite, or Joel Zumaya prove capable of the closer role.

Detroit has a number of southpaw options available. Bobby Seay and a balky shoulder is the incumbent. But if injury limits him the Tigers will use Fu-Te Ni, Brad Thomas, and Daniel Schlereth to try and limit Mauer & Morneau. Ni led all pitchers by allowing only 3 of his 35 inherited runners to score in 2009.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE BALTIMORE ORIOLES…

Breakthrough Performance…

Scott Sizemore

Placido Polanco was a popular player in Detroit for his defense and his ability to not strike out. Neither are Sizemore’s strengths but I think he will do enough other things well to become a solid contributor. Solid contributor isn’t exactly thrilling, but for a farm system that has only produced one position player of note in the last decade, that is still something.

Ready to Rebound…

Dontrelle Willis/Jeremy Bonderman/Nate Robertson

Take your pick, but one of these guys will shed the tag of contract albatross in 2010. Bonderman looks to finally be healthy for the first time since the beginning of the 2007 season. Robertson’s elbow was cleaned out last year and he made several solid starts even while battling a groin injury. Willis, well. He’s at least impressing people in spring training. Yes it is only spring training, but anything not negative for Willis is a positive. Really, a contribution from any of the three would be a rebound at this point.

Ready to Disappoint…

Alex Avila

Disappoint is a relative term, of course. Avila will most like be a good enough hitter as a catcher. But expectations by many fans are likely unrealistic due to Avila’s auspicious August. PECOTA sees a much more modest .235/.308/.354 line which wouldn’t be awful for a rookie catcher.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Rick Porcello has better peripherals but worse results than last year. Fans will start to wonder what is wrong with Porcello and if the Tigers worked him too hard in 2009.

Be Shocked If…

The Tigers don’t compete for the division. I’m not saying they are a great team, but I’m having a hard time seeing any team not competing in the AL Central.

Rock Steady…

Miguel Cabrera

Yes he has had issues off the field. I won’t pretend to know how it does or doesn’t impact him. But despite it all he hits. He hasn’t had a wOBA below .374 since his rookie season and has topped the .400 mark 3 times (and had .399 once).

Achilles Heel…

Bi-modal Age Distribution

The Tigers are relying on old guys (Ordonez, Guillen, Damon, Everett) and younger guys (Jackson, Sizemore, Avila) with not enough “prime” guys (Cabrera) in between. Injuries could hurt the older ones and inexperince could hamper the younger ones.

In the Next Three Years…

The Tigers could have one of the most dominant pitching staffs in the big leagues. Justin Verlander will still be under contract. Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello will still be under club control. Jacob Turner and Casey Crosby could be honing their craft in the Tigers rotation. And the bullpen should be filled out by flame throwers like Perry, Schlereth, Satterwhite, and Weinhardt.

It won’t be pretty if…

Austin Jackson struggles and Curtis Granderson excels. It’s no fault of his own, but he will be compared to the departed Granderson. Not only will it be rough for Jackson, but Dave Dombrowski’s legacy will be largely tied to this trade. If it works great, if not it may be his undoing.

The Braves are up next as BDD’s Bill Baer takes a vacation from Crashburn Alley to head to Hot-lanta. Until then, here’s a look at the previews already signed, sealed, and delivered.

Previous Previews
Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Baltimore Orioles
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians
Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets
Houston Astros
Toronto Blue Jays
Oakland Athletics
San Diego Padres
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago White Sox
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
Tampa Bay Rays
Seattle Mariners

We will never really know the Tigers true financial situation but there is enough information available (thanks in part to the Scott Boras/Rob Manfred argument about revenue sharing) that we can make some educated guesses. We know that every MLB team receives $30 million from the central fund. We know that the Tigers have an annual $40 million television contract (h/t Kurt @ Mack Avenue Tigers) and that only 2 years into a 10 year contract that money isn’t going away anytime soon. The Tigers also probably get at least a couple million in radio rights as well meaning that they take in $75 million before they sell a ticket.

As for those tickets? The Tigers sold 2.5 million of them last year which if we estimate the value of a ticket to be $20 that is another $50 million meaning that the Tigers nearly covered their payroll with what we can reasonably ascertain in terms of their revenue.

But there is more money that the Tigers need to spend beyond payroll. Not even counting stadium debt, the Tigers need to pay for the front office personnel, stadium operations, player development, marketing, etc. I’ve seen that expense estimated at $30 million for big league teams meaning that for the Tigers to not lose money they’d need to take in $160-175 million.

Forbes estimated the Tigers 2008 revenues to be $186 million. The same report said that the Tigers lost $26 million. The $186 million puts the Tigers in the middle of the pack in terms of revenues which likely puts them close to the border for revenue sharing for last season.

Things are rougher for the Tigers this year than last though. They probably lost $13 million or so in gate revenue and additional revenue in terms of in-stadium sponsorship. The overall revenue drop will likely put them in position to receive revenue sharing money, which may mitigate things.

It’s not that bad

The Tigers likely lost money, or at least they didn’t make much money in 2009. Things will probably be tough in 2010 as well. Even with a competitive product I’d be surprised if the Tigers drew more than 2.3-2.4 million based on the empty seats we’re seeing at Red Wings and Pistons games.

But Mike Ilitch is interested in winning. Gutting the team and trading off top talents for prospects doesn’t help the team win and it would further decimate the attendance figures as the season ticket base would continue to dwindle.

Continuing a theme here, I just don’t see the Tigers going fire sale and the speculation is entirely overblown. The talk of a fire sale was a game of telephone that went awry (excellent piece by Tigstown). Things will be difficult and the Tigers may have to part with a player they don’t want to to fill multiple holes. But to go into a sell mode when a great deal of the payroll difficulties will resolve themselves in 12 months doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Bill Ferris is a contributing author at Baseball Daily Digest. His work can also be found at The Detroit Tigers Weblog, where this article originally appeared.