NEW YORK YANKEES

‘09 Record: 103-59, 1st in AL East
Pythagorean Record: 95-67 (+8 differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 91-71 (3rd in AL East)

2009 Review

Let us go back and revisit the bold words that concluded last year’s BDD Yankee preview: “Trust me on this one. The Yankees are winning the 2009 World Series.” And on November 4, they did indeed, capping off the first season in new Yankees Stadium by saturating it with champagne and glory.

The thing about last year’s championship was that it wasn’t won in the prototypical “Yankee Way.” Despite the enraged whining and protests of devastated haters everywhere, the 27^th ring wasn’t found on an itemized AmEx bill.

Rather, it was the natural prize for a team that—f0r the first time in a decade—looked like a real team, and not a fantasy one. They refined a bullpen of no-name talent, galvanized the youthful exuberance of their rookies, harnessed the resolute power of juggernauts, and capitalized on the classic dependability of their old guard. They had fun, they were exciting. They threw at batters, stole bases, slammed teammates with pies, came from behind, embarrassed the Sox, christened their new digs (“Greatness’s New Home”), and shed the monkeys on their back. They deserved the trophy. And they got it.

2010 Outlook

Can they repeat? Of course. But it will be markedly more challenging, and a much more impressive feat when they do. The off-season was punctuated with a slew of wheeling and dealing, but has the overall face of the team’s talent improved? It’s splitting hairs. On the surface, it would appear that upper management acted impulsively and maniacally in their whirlwind of moves that saw the departure of World Series heroes Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon. But perhaps their 2009 successes have prompted The Powers That Be to do something they haven’t done since my days of being decked out in HyperColor t-shirts: Think long-term and big picture.

2010 Team

Catcher

The immoveable anchor of Jorge Posada still headlines the catching spot. To quote my mother’s impassioned marriage discourses to me: “You’re not getting any younger.” Regardless, the 39-year old managed to stay healthy last year and sidestep all the “HE’S DONE!” finger-pointing that our fabled closer seems to now have the market cornered on. It would appear that the real concern would be that Posada seems to alternate his banner years, posting league-leading numbers in 2007, succumbing the injuries all of 2008, and rebounding last year with 22 dings, 81 RBIs, and a .285 BA.

I hate to say this, but I think he’ll see a bit of a drop this year. But beloved Francisco “Henry Rowengartner is my doppelganger” Cervelli is a strong Plan B. And waiting in the wings is highly touted prospect Jesus Montero, who I already hate for showing up to spring training 30 pounds overweight. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

Infield

You’d be hard pressed to find a better infield than the 2010 Yankees. And I don’t just mean this year. I mean ever. Last year, team captain Derek Jeter officially reached legend status, surpassing Lou Gehrig’s career hit count. The bigger feat seemed to be his discernible excelling defensively. “The worst SS in the game” played like he was on a hell-bent mission to throw muzzles on all who cried “He’s got no range!!” Expect that agility to continue through 2010.

Opposite of Jeets is the second baseman who divides his time equally between the overrated and underrated realms. Robinson Cano and Jeter are the first and only SS/2B combo in history to each have 200 hits in the same season. While Cano’s slugging potential is undeniable (25 HRs, .320 BA, and .871 OPS), he faces one critical challenge this year in the 5-hole… his categorical aversion to hitting with RISP. Last year his .207 was nothing short of pathetic, and now with A-Rod and Tex batting ahead of him, he stands to hemorrhage ribbies all season. He’ll most likely rise to the occasion and post outlandish figures in the RBI column.

Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira round out the corners, and last year was proof of the indispensability of our 1B. Not only is he a defensive god, but he was effectively the Wind Beneath A-Rod’s Wings. A-Rod flung from his bodice the anti-clutch stigma to become the most clutch batter in the game. Of the 30 blasts he shot last year, 26 came when the score was a margin of 2 or less, 8 were when the score was 0-0, 16 were in the 6th inning or later, 9 were when trailing, and 15 were to tie the game or put the Yankees in the lead. To say the duo will only improve in 2010 is an understatement. I would flat-out be terrified being pitted against this infield.

Outfield

Ah, the tumultuous tale of the outfield. The sole arena into which haters are lumping all their hopes and dreams of a Yankee downfall. When we weren’t debating the finer points of the Joba vs Hughes age-old argument, and when we weren’t questioning the utility of Nick Johnson, or Javy Vasquez’s ability to pitch in the AL, we were musing about the “shaky” outfield situation.

With Johnny Damon’s Gumby arm shipped off the Detroit, the formidable fielding mechanics of Curtis Granderson offer a decided improvement. But Melky “’Rudy’ is my favorite movie” Cabrera was also dealt, and the question of who was going to replace his notably aggressive coverage, moved to the forefront of our minds.

A few weeks ago, we got our answer: speedy little Brett “Am I sniffing glue or is .270 not a respectable BA?” Gardner would be manning the LF spot. And 2010 will be the season where he’s finally recognized as a key asset to this team. For some reason, he was constantly glossed over, despite speed on the base paths and vast outfield coverage. Granderson may get the spotlight for the first few months of the season, but eventually Gardner will receive his due respect.

Because, let’s face it, NY may love Grandy now, but when he’s coming up empty against the league’s tough lefties, it won’t matter how many runs he saves on defense. .182 against southpaws in ‘09. That’s right. We wouldn’t dare part with our young talent a few years ago, when the Twins wanted Melky, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Hughes for Johan Santana. But for a .249-batting CFer, we’re willing to sacrifice anything. My prediction? Grandy lucks out with the stadium’s short porch, provides critical defensive value, but sees a year of sub-par OBP.

In RF, there’s Nick Swisher, who arguably had the most pivotal role in the 2009 championship. He single-handedly changed the team’s dynamic, bringing an air of refreshing ease to a historically uptight clubhouse. He saw his fair share of slumps and defensive gaffs, but he also saw an even greater share of walks. His 97 BB was 1^st in the AL, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he supplements this asset in 2010 with a career season of hits.

Designated Hitter

Nick Johnson returns to his old team and is possibly the most quintessential example of a player who could pay off huge, or could just be a supreme bust. Let’s hope for the former, but be prepared if he retains a strict dedication to the world of “so-so.” His numbers last year are actually, for all intents and purposes, immaterial. Because only one of them means anything to the Yankees: OBP.

The 31-year-old’s .429 OBP last year was absolutely the only thing that got him in pinstripes. The Yanks want a warm body on the base paths ahead of Tex and A-Rod. They got one… Cheap. The guy hasn’t hit more than 8 HRs since 2006, and as such, won’t be dazzling anyone in 2010 with his Mendoza-line. But he’ll do what he’s brought here to do, and I wouldn’t worry about him dragging the team’s offense. Quite the contrary: Hitting coach Kevin Long has been working his magic on Johnson, and our DH has been a pleasant surprise at the plate during Spring Training. (Good pick-up, Cashman.)

Bench

The Yanks made a fresh set of cuts in recent weeks, leaving our bench to be warmed by the likes of Cervelli (backup catcher), Ramiro Pena (utility infielder), Randy Winn (reserve outfielder #1), and Marcus Thames (reserve outfielder #2). Both Cervelli and Pena demonstrated last season that they are more than capable of working the understudy role with respectable capabilities. They may not be Evan Longoria-esque rookies, but they’re talented, aggressive, and—best of all—quick studies. Each chipped in a walk-off hit last year, as well as smatterings of clutch hitting in big spots.

As for Winn and Thames… well, let’s just say I felt like I did when I drafted Oliver Perez in the 21^th round of my 20-team league. I gulped, but reasoned that the likelihood of him ever having to leave the BN slot on my roster was small, and hence the potential for him to inflict any damage to my team was even smaller.

The biggest value Winn can offer is his ability to fill in if they need him, and to do so in a highly cost-effective manner that will save the Yanks some cash come the free agent bonanza in 2011. He didn’t exactly have a banner year last year, and, at 35, he’s not necessarily guaranteed any kind of a “give him a chance, he’ll rebound!” latitude. Last year, he put up a .671 OPS and while he is a switch hitter, hit .158 against lefties. If he raises these numbers more than slightly in 2010, I’ll die of shock.

In terms of statistical relevance, Marcus Thames is a near carbon copy of Winn, and hence I approach him in the same manner: Neither reserve will do much for the Yankees, but the net-net will be in the positive side of production.

Starting Rotation

And the rich get richer. You can cite a litany of factors that propelled the Yanks bank into their rightful regency, but perhaps the most acute change came in the shape of CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. By the time the 2^nd half of the season was in full swing, CC had established himself as a go-to game winner, ultimately posting a 19-8 record that was even more impressive given the amount of innings he ate up. Expect more of the same this year. He could very well somehow improve upon that, when you consider the fact the bullpen won’t be as overworked this year, thereby alleviating the pressure to make round boy throw complete game after complete game. (To that end, I have a feeling he not only collects 20 Ws, but also that one of those W is a perfect one.) [Editor's Note -- "Unbiased" was in quotations for a reason.]

AJ lived up to his bipolar reputation, leaving fans to play a fun little game of Russian Roulette every time he took the mound. But the bottom line with this guy is that last year smoothed out a lot of his erratic roughness. He honed his pitch location, and really dialed in on maximizing the potential of his fastballs and slurves. 2010 will see significant jumps in his Ws, and—dare I say—more control? Hell, there’s even talk of reconciling with Posada.

What can you say about veteran Andy Pettitte? Although I admittedly entertain the fear that any pitch may be the one that does him in, I have to concede that he was beyond clutch in the postseason and clinched the 2 more important series of the year. The 4.85 ERA and 14-8 record belies his raw skill, but that said, I don’t see him going anywhere but down at this point. Which is not to predict a colossal collapse, but the fact of the matter is he’s 38 years old. He’ll win us another ring, then call it a career.

In the 4-spot is ex-Yankee Javier Vasquez. Baseball fans remember him for being one of the best in the NL in 2009, with an obscene K-rate (238) and an anemic ERA (2.87). Yankee fans, however, remember him serving up a grand slam to Johnny Damon in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS. So… that kind of left a bad taste in our mouths. Will he be able to translate his NL efficacy into the unforgiving AL? [Editor's Note -- See Vazquez, Javier: 2006-2008] Put it this way: Anytime a 15-game winner is your 4^th starter, you’re in an enviable state.

And finally, rounding out the rotation, after the reality-tv-esque competition to find the 5^th starter consumed the Yankees’ preseason, is Phil Hughes. The maturity of this young righty is evident in his commitment to expanding his pitch arsenal, and indeed it was his newfound change-up that sold manager Joe Girardi on Hughes’ role in the rotation. Hughes spent 2009 as an integral part of the bullpen, mystifying batters with his head-on heat. And fantastic as he was in short relief, he’ll be twice as effective in the rotation. He’ll win at least 14 games, which is already 60% more than last year’s 4^th starter.

Bullpen

Have any 2 words invoked more divisive debate within Yankee Universe than “Joba Chamberlain”? The seemingly tireless upheaval around whether he was truly a starter or reliever has mercifully been put to bed, after he offered up an ERA that looked more like the price for a movie ticket than it did a spring training performance. His scattering of quality starts last year always seemed to blind fans and management to his much more frequent abysmal starts. 9-6. He only got 15 decisions, because most of the time he was getting chased out of the game.

Of course, we’ll expect nothing less than otherworldly greatness in the 8^th inning set-up man spot. Although he slider has seen more action than a honeymoon suite, and although it’s more predictable than a Real World character, the charmed one will prevail. Joba and his electric fist-pump will become the player we remember him being in 2007. His ERA then was 0.38. Last year, it was 4.75. If he doesn’t improve on his bullpen skills from the last time he worked there, I’m 100% okay with that.

On the opposite end of the reliability spectrum is Mariano Rivera, who is flawless and somehow becoming even more flawless with every year. He defies logic, conventional wisdom, laws of time and space. He led the league in saves last year (44), seemed to be impervious to pitch counts and IP, and worked it straight through the postseason. How can I predict what this god will do this year? It’d be like betting against David Blaine: you know it’s physically impossible for a ripped up card to appear magically assembled inside a basketball across town. But you also know that David Blaine will somehow make this happen.

As for the rest of the ‘pen, it looks like the Yankees are in better shape than they’ve been in for as far back as I can remember. Damaso Marte, Sergio Mitre, Alfredo Aceves, Chan Ho Park, and David Robertson are all not only better than average hurlers, but they all have long-relief possibilities. Most of them have been starters at some point, and the range of specialty pitches is diverse and deep. For the first time in years, the bullpen isn’t a cause for unbridled panic heading into the season. It’s the opposite, actually.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE NEW YORK YANKEES…

Breakthrough Performance…

Robinson Cano

Again. I feel like I say this every year. So maybe it’s not exactly a gutsy call. And maybe it’s not even a plausible call, seeing as he’s already pretty damn productive as it is, so how much can he really “breakthrough,” per se? You put someone like him in the 5^th spot after Jeter, Johnson, Tex, and A-Rod, and suddenly it becomes very plausible indeed to explode. Of course, this is all contingent on him learning how to actually hit with RISP, but Cano’s proven he’s moldable through—if nothing else—the dramatic transformation he made from 2008 to 2009 with his plate discipline.

Ready to Rebound…

Joba Chamberlain

Rebound? Who on the 2009 Yankees needs to rebound from anything? There was only 1 brick of dead weight last season, as far as I’m concerned: Joba. And as such, he’s the only one who truly needs to bounce back. (We’re not including Winn and Thames in the running.) Joba will return to the pen, but this team he’ll have matured a bit and become a de facto leader. We need 2007 Joba. 2010 Joba will be like 2007 v2—updated and refined.

Ready to Disappoint…

Curtis Granderson

I hate to say it, but our biggest offseason acquisition has a lot to live up to in the Bronx. Anything less than excellence is booed and mauled. The guy hit 20 HRs last year. Yankee stadium is the size of an acorn—if he doesn’t hit twice that this year, he’ll be disappointing. And God help us if he doesn’t learn how to hit off southpaws.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Francisco Cervelli sees a lot more action than anticipated. Posada is old. He’s a leader, he’s still good at the plate, and he still calls an amazing game. But he’s old, and all of this will take its toll at some point. Enter Cervelli.

Be Shocked If…

Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner fail to slowly but surely establish themselves as dependable defensive players as well as offensive ones. This clubhouse is all about rising-to-the-occasion, which is exactly what we need from the outfielders. Both will go on offensive tears numerous times throughout the season. I’d be shocked if they became even slightly muted.

Rock Steady…

Mark Teixeira

While the All-Star 1B has a bit of a reputation for coming out of the gate slow sluggishly near inert, 2010 will the year he breaks this habit. Tex has always been a slugmaster, but we’d be remiss in not appreciating the fact he’s maybe the most rock-steady member of this team (with the possible exception of Mariano Rivera). His unwavering presence at first was invaluable last year (especially when I remember how I’d cringe and cover my eyes 2 years ago whenever an infielder was zipping one over to Giambi).

Achilles Heel…

Ummm… the beer and hot dog prices at the stadium?

In the Next Three Years…

The Yanks will get Carl Crawford and possibly Josh Beckett and whatever other big name enters free agency in 2011. It’s the only reasonable explanation for why they’ve been making these 1-year deals on seemingly lateral moves for dirt cheap players. They’re saving up.

Which is not to say they’ve completely abandoned the idea of cultivating youth. Though many continue to lambast the reigning champions for “buying their team,” the actual roster is comprised of just as many homegrown townies as it is “trendy” stars. Just think of the impact players like Cano, Gardner, Robertson, Hughes, Pena, Cervelli, and Joba have had in the last year.

Like I said earlier, it’s big picture time for the management. And they’re methodical, patient, and best of all, just as concerned with power as with youth. And that’s just the beginning of what’s to come in the next 3 years…

(To say nothing of the fact the upcoming seasons will offer a pitcher who can come in for relief of himself. Pat “Octopus”  Venditte—the 24-year old switch pitcher. Just when you thought their pitching staff couldn’t get more eclectic…)

Goosebumps Moment…

Imminently… when the Yankees take the field at Fenway on April 4 to open the season. Long-term… when the Yankees win their 28^th World Series Championship this fall.

There you have it!!! We hope you enjoyed our little season preview series and look forward to bringing you great baseball writing for the rest of the 2010 season. In case you missed one, here are all of the previews by division:

2010 SEASON PREVIEWS

AL EAST
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees (This Preview)
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays

AL CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins

AL WEST
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves
Florida Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals

NL CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Houston Astros
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals

NL WEST
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

‘09 Record: 93-69, 1st in NL East
Pythagorean Record: 92-70 (-1 differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 89-73 (1st in NL East)

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2009 Review

The Phillies were merely two wins away from repeating as World Series champions, but ultimately fell to a more talented New York Yankees team. The Phils led the National League in runs per game, doubles, home runs, SLG and OPS. Young J.A. Happ emerged as the team’s most reliable starting pitcher while Cole Hamels hit the skids. Hamels was part of a trio, with closer Brad Lidge and shortstop Jimmy Rollins, that would like to erase 2009 from their memories. Rollins compiled a .719 OPS, his lowest since 2003, while Lidge finished the year with a 7.21 ERA and 11 blown saves in 42 opportunities.

2010 Outlook

Cliff Lee was sent to Seattle to make room for Roy Halladay while Placido Polanco was signed to play third base in the absence of Pedro Feliz. On the outset, these appear to be marginal upgrades at best, but closer inspection will reveal the savvy of general manager Ruben Amaro.

As a result of the three-team trade between Philadelphia, Toronto, and Seattle, Halladay signed a three-year, $60 million contract extension with the Phillies with a $20 million option for a fourth year in 2014. That is actually a below-market deal both in terms of years and in terms of salary. Johan Santana, one of the few starting pitchers in the same stratosphere as Halladay, signed a six-year, $137.5 million contract extension when he was traded to the New York Mets from the Minnesota Twins. Despite the economic recession and a more generally financially-conservative mindset among GM’s in baseball, there is little doubt that Halladay could have commanded a contract similar to Santana’s on the open market.

Polanco signed with the Phillies five days before top free agent third baseman Chone Figgins signed with the Seattle Mariners. Polanco took three years at $18 million with a $5.5 million mutual option in 2013 while Figgins signed for four years and $36 million with a $9 million vesting option for the fifth year. Despite a great 2009 season for Figgins, Polanco has been worth about the same over the past three years with 11.3 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to Figgins’ 11.5. Amaro committed half the guaranteed money and one less year for a player with about the same value, though with less upside and a potential WAR dip due to positional shift, than Figgins.

Amaro’s financial savvy gave him some flexibility despite the team’s self-imposed $140 million salary cap. During the off-season, Amaro signed free agents Danys Baez, Jose Contreras, Brian Schneider, Ross Gload, and Juan Castro to help bolster the bullpen and bench. For those five players combined, Amaro committed less than $7 million in 2010.

The Phillies know that their offense will be among the best in 2010. Ryan Howard is one of baseball’s premier sluggers. Chase Utley has become, unarguably, the game’s best second baseman both offensively and defensively. Jayson Werth, a free agent after this season, has evolved into a dynamic offensive corner outfielder. Even with the disappointing 2009 for Jimmy Rollins, there are no question marks surrounding the team’s bats.

The questions primarily surround the bullpen as the team is coping with injuries to Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero. Additionally, Chan Ho Park was not retained and Jose Contreras was brought in as a result along with Danys Baez. Both have had recent injury woes. Lefty Scott Eyre, who was a pivotal bullpen piece in his short stint in Philadelphia, retired after the ‘09 season and the Phillies spent all of spring training trying to replace him with internal options such as Antonio Bastardo, Sergio Escalona, and Mike Zagurski. Count it all up: Lidge, Romero, Contreras, Baez, and their second LOOGY-to-be gives them five individual question marks going into the regular season. The two odd men out are Ryan Madson, who did not win any new fans when he was asked to take Lidge’s closer role late last season, and Chad Durbin whose 2009 was as bad as his ‘08 was good.

Will a revamped bench and bullpen help the Phillies become the first National League team to reach the World Series in three consecutive years since the 1942-44 St. Louis Cardinals? That’s what is on the minds of Phillies fans going into 2010.

2010 Team

Catcher

Carlos Ruiz has truly come into his own as the everyday catcher in Philadelphia. He is no Mike Piazza but has earned the respect of every pitcher to don the red pinstripes. By most accounts, he is a great game-caller and plays excellent defense behind the dish. At Beyond the Box Score, Dan Turkenkopf and Harry Pavlidis both have Ruiz among the top-three in baseball at blocking pitches in the dirt. Last year, Ruiz put up his best offensive season to date with a .780 OPS. Since he started playing regularly in 2007, Ruiz’s walk rate has continued to ascend, finishing at 12.4% last year according to FanGraphs.

Backing up Ruiz will be Brian Schneider, who is very familiar with the NL East. From 2000-07, he was with the Montreal Expos slash Washington Nationals and spent ‘08-09 with the New York Mets. For the past four years, he hasn’t been much with the bat but he brings experience and leadership to the clubhouse and he has continued to hold base runners in check from behind the dish.

Infield

For the past four years, first baseman Ryan Howard has been reliable for 45 or more home runs and 135 or more RBI. It is rare to see such offensive consistency at that high a level. However, Howard does have a couple weaknesses at the plate. As Matt Swartz pointed out at Baseball Prospectus, Howard is “average against lefties” and “will eat your right-handers.” He accrued nearly 50 more plate appearances against lefties in 2008-09 than 2006-07, a 10% increase, showing that managers are trying to gain every possible advantage against him. Furthermore, Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci found that opposing pitchers fed Howard a steady diet of breaking pitches. If Howard is to continue to find his name atop offensive leaderboards, he will need to give opposing managers a reason to leave the slider-throwing lefty in the bullpen.

Chase Utley, the prize of the 2000 draft, will trot out to second base in his eighth year of professional baseball. As Richie Ashburn (“Whitey”) used to say, “Hard to believe, Harry [Kalas]“. Utley is without a doubt the premier second baseman in all of baseball. Over the past three years, he has compiled 23.6 WAR. The runner-up over that period of time is Dustin Pedroia at 15.7. So what can we expect from Utley? Great offense (.905 OPS last year), great defense (11.3 UZR/150 last year), and great base running (23-for-23 in stealing bases last year).

Shortstop Jimmy Rollins is recovering from a down year, but still has his eyes on the prize. During the off-season, he said he wants to hit .300, accrue 200 hits, score 150 runs, steal 50 bases, and commit 3 or fewer errors. Lofty goals, certainly — the consensus of 13 Phillies bloggers I recently polled think he will come up short on each measure. As is the cast with most speedy players, he needs to get back to hitting ground balls. He had a 6% decrease in that department from 2008 to ‘09, contributing to a BABIP that was over .040 lower than his career average. PECOTA is bullish on Rollins in ‘10, projecting him to hit for an .808 OPS. Philadelphia would love nothing more than a rebound season from their lovable shortstop.

Rounding out the starting infielders at third base is Placido Polanco, who was with the Phillies from the second half of 2002 through the first half of ‘05. Polanco gives the Phillies a new look at the top of the lineup, taking the spot previously held by Shane Victorino. While Victorino walks more often than Polanco, he also strikes out more often as well. Manager Charlie Manuel likes Polanco’s propensity for contact along with his baseball smarts. Most in the Sabermetric crowd think the #1-2 in the lineup should be Victorino-Polanco, but it is hard to imagine Manuel making such a controversial move.

Defensively, Polanco is re-learning third base. He hasn’t played there since 2005 and hasn’t been a regular at the hot corner since ‘02. However, he was a great defender at second base over the past three years. Only Utley, Brandon Phillips, and Mark Ellis compiled a higher UZR/150 at second base in that span of time. The questions surrounding Polanco at third base don’t revolve so much around his ability to corral the baseball; it is turning double plays and making strong accurate throws to first base.

Juan Castro and Greg Dobbs will see limited time in the infield. Dobbs, a left-hander, can start at third base when a tough right-handed pitcher is on the mound, and he can spell Howard at first base as will pinch-hitter extraordinaire Ross Gload. Dobbs will also see a smaller amount of time at either of the corner outfield positions. Castro, known for his defense, will back up J-Roll and Chase up the middle.

Outfield

2009 was a tale of two seasons for left fielder Raul Ibanez. From Opening Day until his groin injury, he had put up a triple-slash line of .312/.371/.656. Many were wondering how high he would finish on the NL MVP ballots. From the time he returned from his injury in mid-July until the end of the season, his triple-slash line paled in comparison: .232/.323/.448. He didn’t earn any MVP votes, unfortunately, but he did play surprisingly good defense. In the previous two seasons while in Seattle’s spacious Safeco Field, Raul had a -23.3 and -10.4 UZR/150 respectively. After moving to the more cozy Citizens Bank Park, Ibanez’s UZR/150 was an incredible 10.7. PECOTA puts Raul at an .807 OPS, which seems a bit pessimistic given that his lowest OPS in the past four seasons is .831.

Center fielder Shane Victorino continues to get better the older he gets. His OPS has risen every year since 2006 and he has turned into an efficient base-stealer under the tutelage of first base coach Davey Lopes. He stole bases at a 72% clip in the Minor Leagues, but has increased that rate to 80% in his time with the Phillies. Add in his above-average defense — including a throwing arm that rivals that of Ichiro Suzuki — and you have a surprisingly valuable player. He has been worth at least 3 WAR in each of the past three seasons and he’s getting smarter. Victorino increased his walk rate while lowering his strikeout rate last year. Due to the acquisition of Polanco, Vic will be moving to the #7 spot in the lineup. Many National League teams would love to have a #7 hitter that good.

There were two “epic beard” events that occurred on the Internet during the off-season. One involved a fight on a bus, which can be seen here (not work-safe). The “winner” of the fight is referred to as “epic beard guy”. The other “epic beard” event belonged to Phillies right fielder Jayson Werth, who showed up to camp looking like this (work-safe, but hide the women and children). There is even a Twitter account for his beard now.

Werth, an L.A. Dodger exile like Victorino, has blossomed into one of baseball’s most dynamic players. Originally drafted by the Baltimore Orioles as a catcher, Werth now hits for power, steals bases (very efficiently, I might add), plays airtight defense, and has an arm that, yes, rivals that of Ichiro Suzuki. He has been worth 13.5 WAR over the past three seasons, a total surpassed only by six other outfielders in the Majors. PECOTA pegs Werth, a free agent after the season, at an .852 OPS, which is slightly pessimistic given that it has ranged from .861 to .879 over the past three years.

Ben Francisco, who came to Philadelphia from Cleveland along with Cliff Lee, will be the fourth outfielder. He has been slightly below average defensively, but swings the bat well and has the ability to steal bases.

As mentioned previously,Dobbs and Gload will rack up a few innings in the corners of the outfield, spelling Werth and Ibanez every so often.

Starting Rotation

Cliff Lee, who was “retrocalm” for the Phillies during the 2009 post-season, was traded to Seattle to make room for Roy Halladay, coming in from Toronto. It was a trade that upset a lot of Phillies fans, who took the deal as an indication that the team was loosening its grip on the National League competition. However, the trade allowed the Phillies to acquire an ace pitcher they knew they could sign to a reasonably-priced contract extension and they did just that with Halladay.

Halladay moves from the offense-laden AL East, against which he made 46% of his starts, to the milquetoast offense of the NL East in a league where the pitcher bats. For Halladay, the sky’s the limit in this division. While he used to have durability issues, he has put them to bed over the past four years in which he’s made at least 31 starts and pitched at least 220 innings. His strikeout rate last year was at its highest since an injury-shortened 2001 season and his walk rate was at its lowest since an injury-shortened ‘05. Believe it or not, the Phillies may be getting Halladay, who turns 33 on May 14, at his best and healthiest.

Cole Hamels is recovering from a disappointing 2009 campaign. Many, especially those who fiddle with Sabermetrics, expect Hamels to rebound this season. Scroll down to the “Ready to Rebound” section below to find out why. During spring training, the lefty has been honing his curve and added a cut fastball to his repertoire to help increase his effectiveness against left-handed hitters. Unlike last year, when the Phillies were basking in the glow of their first World Series in 28 years and he had been named the World Series MVP against the Rays, Cole did not run the media gamut this off-season. Instead, he worked diligently to help improve his chances going into 2010.

Joe Blanton is the very definition of a workhorse. Not only is he good for 190+ innings, but he looks like he ate a workhorse. (Cliche joke about his weight: check.) As a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher, his 4-ish ERA is not only acceptable but welcome. Blanton managed to increase his strikeout significantly from 5.1 per nine innings in 2008 to 7.5 last year. However, he’s a fly ball pitcher in a hitter’s park, which means he’ll give up his fair share of home runs. Despite his workhorse nature, Blanton strained his left oblique and starts the season on the DL.

J.A. Happ is coming off of quite an impressive 2009 season. Even including Lee, he was the team’s most reliable starter throughout the regular season. But as I’ve detailed here at BDD, a lot of his success last year had to do with good fortune on balls put in play, something he has very little control over. He isn’t going to come anywhere close to his 2.93 ERA last year, and be shocked if he finishes in the 3’s.

The battle for the #5 spot went to “old man” Jamie Moyer over ground ball specialist Kyle Kendrick. The Phillies owe Moyer a large sum of money and may feel better about it now that he won the spot over KK. However, Kendrick has had a great showing in spring training and may force the Phillies to give him a shot if he fills in for Blanton successfully and Moyer falters.

Bullpen

The Phillies bullpen is a mess, simply put. Closer Brad Lidge had one of the worst seasons by a closer in baseball history and is recovering from off-season elbow surgery. He will not be ready for Opening Day but hopes to be back shortly thereafter. A lot of his struggles last year can now be traced to his overcompensating for his ailing knee. It is an uncomfortable realization that a nightmare season can once again occur if Lidge isn’t smart about dealing with his injuries.

Ryan Madson will be the interim closer and take over in the eighth inning once Lidge returns. Madson has an electric fastball and many claim his change-up is as good as that of Hamels. His K/9 shot up to 9.1 last year and became known as one of the best set-up men in baseball. He did not handle save situations with great success last year but Phillies fans should not let that deter support for him while Lidge is recovering.

Newcomers Danys Baez and Jose Contreras will handle middle relief along with Chad Durbin. Contreras has been injury-prone as of late, but his fastball was clocked in the mid- to high-90’s late last season, which leads one to believe he can still produce in one-inning stints.

On the other hand, Baez has seen his strikeout rate decrease in every season since 2003 and has dealt with the injury bug himself. Baez missed all of 2008 but bounced back and was effective with the Baltimore Orioles last year, despite the low K-rate.

Durbin, like many Phillies, had a great yet unsustainable 2008 season. He faltered in ‘09 as his walk rate nearly doubled to 6.1 per nine. He’s an average reliever with marginal stuff but can eat up a lot of innings out of the ‘pen.

Lefty J.C. Romero, like Lidge, is on the mend and will not be ready for Opening Day. When he comes back, the Phillies should utilize him as a LOOGY and keep him away from high-leverage situations when possible.

Antonio Bastardo, another southpaw, profiles better as a starter and could still use more Minor League seasoning. However, the Phillies have no confidence in their other internal left-handed options in Sergio Escalona and Mike Zagurski, and don’t figure to pick up a lefty on the market. Bastardo wins by default. His fastball and slider are slightly above-average pitches, but his change-up leaves much to be desired.

David Herndon will round out the bullpen. He’s a Rule 5 pick from the L.A. Angels and has impressed in spring training. He doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff but has great control and a heavy sinker. Herndon may be offered back to the Angels when Lidge or Romero returns from injury.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES…

Breakthrough Performance…

Kyle Kendrick

With a mundane defense, ground ball specialists don’t have fun pitching. However, the Phillies currently sport one of baseball’s best infield defenses and that will mean a lot to KK. Kendrick will likely get several opportunities to start and he’ll earn his way into the starting rotation by September.

Ready to Rebound…

Cole Hamels

Click here to find out why Cole Hamels will likely rebound in 2010.

Ready to Disappoint…

J.A. Happ

Click here to find out why J.A. Happ will likely regress in 2010.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

The Phillies reach (and win) the World Series. Don’t be surprised if the World Series is a rematch from 2009.

Be Shocked If…

The Phillies miss the playoffs. The world will end in 2012 if the Phillies finish with a sub-.500 record.

Rock Steady…

Chase Utley

Utley will be more valuable to the Phillies in 2010 than Roy Halladay.

Achilles Heel…

Bullpen

Way too many questions to answer. The Phillies are going to have to rely on Lady Luck here.

In the Next Three Years…

The team will make its final World Series pushes before regrouping. The only Phillies on the books past 2012 are Roy Halladay, Chase Utley, Placido Polanco (mutual option), Carlos Ruiz, Ben Francisco, and Kyle Kendrick. It’s likely that one of Ryan Howard or Jayson Werth along with Cole Hamels get extended through 2013, but the organization will wave goodbye to a lot of familiar faces.

Goosebumps Moment…

The Phillies are in good shape to become the first National League team to reach back-to-back-to-back World Series since the 1942-44 St. Louis Cardinals.

And then there was one… Yankees tomorrow. They bought a championship last year, don’t ya know.

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Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

‘09 Record: 97-65,  1^st in AL West
Pythagorean Record: 92-70 (+5 differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 78-84 (4th in AL West)

———————-

2009 Review

In 2009, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim responded to the tragic death of rookie right-hander Nick Adenhart with another American League West title. Since 2002, the Angels have won six division titles and one World Series. In 2009, the only holdovers from the 2002 champions were John Lackey and Scot Shields. So, the Angles have been able to manage turnover and remain ahead of their division rivals with a mix of internally developed talent, such as Lackey and Garret Anderson, and premium free agents, such as Vladimir Guerrero and Torii Hunter.

Aside from Adenhart’s passing, the 2009 season stands out because the Angels broke a franchise record with 883 runs scored. That mark, second in the AL to the Yankees, is more impressive when you remember Mark Teixeira had just left Anaheim for the Bronx. The emergence of Kendry Morales played a big role in the Angels offense outburst, but one shouldn’t overlook the exceptional performances of 30-somethings Bobby Abreu and Torii Hunter.

2010 Outlook

The rest of the AL West is catching up to the Angels. A Mariners rotation led by Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez, the possible upside of Rich Harden and Vladimir Guerrero in Texas, and a young and threatening rotation in Oakland, could give the Angels a run for the division.

The Angels will have to prove they can deal with turnover again, as Lackey and Chone Figgins move on and homegrown talent in Brandon Wood and Jered Weaver try to fill the void. The Angels fortunes also appear to be dependent on the continued success of mature hitters, such as Abreu, Hunter and Hideki Matsui. Back-ups such as Reggie Willits and Peter Bourjos will not replace the offense of these elder statesmen should they go down.

It is unlikely that this year’s team will come close to the runs scored by the 2009 version, so the season may depend on run prevention and, in particular, the reliability of Ervin Santana and Scott Kazmir. The consistency of the bullpen, especially Brian Fuentes, will also be important. That Fuentes led the league in saves in 2009 shows the meaninglessness of that statistic.

2010 Team

Catcher

It’s too bad that Mike Napoli can’t get more starts. His story is a lesson that no matter how talented you are, you still have to get along with your boss. Napoli is the only AL catcher to hit 20 or more homeruns in the past two seasons, but his faults on defense mean that he’ll share catching duties with Jeff Mathis again. With Matsui on the team, Napoli is likely to see fewer plate appearances as a designated hitter, which means Mathis’ weak bat could be in the lineup more often. Napoli’s inability to fully recover from a right shoulder injury will create more opportunities for Mathis to drag down the Angels’ offensive production. Hank Conger has overcome injuries to become the Angels’ top prospect, but probably won’t be a major factor in the catching picture in 2010.

Infield

The trade-off between Chone Figgins and Brandon Wood is the biggest question in the Angels infield. Wood’s opportunity to start has come after almost 3,000 at bats in the minors, including parts of four seasons at Triple-A Salt Lake City. So, Wood has shorted his swing and will begin trying to quite any comparisons of his career to Casey Kotchman’s.

The rest of the infield is an enviable collection of emerging stars or solid regulars who could be together for a while. In his first full season, 2009, 1B Kendry Morales finished fifth in the AL MVP voting with a .924 OPS. 2B Howie Kendrick only managed 400 plate appearances in 2009, but that was an improvement over the past two years. Kendrick showed what he was capable of in the second half, as he posted a .919 OPS in 199 plate appearances. SS Erick Aybar shook the injury bug in 2009 and produced a .077 jump in his OPS over 2008. His next challenge will be replacing Chone Figgins in the Angels’ lead-off spot.

Outfield

LF Juan Rivera hopes to continue to be an upgrade over Garret Anderson in 2010 with improved patience, power and range. The wild card in the Angels outfield will be the amount of time DH Hideki Matsui is given in left field. Matsui would like to play in the outfield once or twice a week. His arthritic knees may have other plans.

The Angels bet on CF Torii Hunter’s longevity in 2007 when they signed him to a five year/$90 million contract. Hunter has been worth it when he is healthy, but that could change if he loses a step or can’t play regularly.

With the Angels DH spot taken by Matsui, fans in right field at the Big A can enjoy a good view of RF Bobby Abreu’s subpar defense. That wouldn’t be so bad if his power wasn’t receding. In 2009, Abreu did show the batting eye that also seemed to be waning in 2007 and 2008. So, he should provide some value as a number two hitter.

Designated Hitter

There’s good reason to expect Matsui will be a productive DH in 2010, if Mike Scioscia resists the temptation to test his knees in the outfield. If you add the that the Angels needed a left-handed bat and Matsui can more than hold his own against lefties and you can see the logic in his one-year, $6 million deal. As noted above, the only glaring downside of having Matsui as an almost full-time DH is that it potentially limits opportunities to keep Abreu’s and Napoli’s bats in the lineup.

Bench

Macier Izturis’ hot Spring Training shows he won’t give up playing time in the infield without a fight. What may hurt him is how well suited he is for the utility infielder role. A lot of Reggie Willits’ value is tied up in his legs. So, it’s troubling to see him struggle with hamstring issues after injuries have kept him from repeating his breakout 2007 season. Bobby Wilson and Terry Evans are out of Minor League options and must be kept on the 25-man roster or moved in a deal in order to avoid being exposed to the waiver wire. Both or either could see some limited time on the big league roster. It will be interesting to see if or when Conger takes some at bats away from the Napoli/Mathis catching tandem. That may not happen until September, but his development may dictate otherwise.

Starting Rotation

If everything breaks right, the Angels could have one of the strongest rotations in major league baseball. Jered Weaver’s fly-ball pitcher tendencies are well suited for the Big A and he should continue his evolution into a dependable top of the rotation starter. The day is coming when Ervin Santana has to capitalize on his ace potential before his inconsistency relegates him to a back of the rotation role. The Angels’ rotation is strong enough top to bottom that Santana doesn’t have to have another season like 2008, but it would be nice to see him reach that level again. Scott Kazmir seemed to regain his fantastic slider late last year and made dealing slugging prospect Sean Rodriguez palatable for the time being. The Angels don’t need Kazmir to become and ace again, which is a good thing because those days are probably over. Joe Saunders also goes into 2010 trying to recapture his past glory. Saunders’ off-speed pitches were especially bad last year, which is something to look for if he is going to put up an ERA below 5.00 in 2010. Dave Duncan helped resurrect Joel Pineiro’s career in 2009, but 2010 will tell if the improvements in his groundball rates and control are sustainable.

Bullpen

Brian Fuentes’ $9 million option for 2011 vests if he finishes 55 games. Fuentes has reached that mark three times in his career including the 57 he finished in 2009. Fuentes lead the AL in saves, but if his fastball velocity and strikeout rate continues to fall, Angels fans may be seeing a lot less of him. Jason Bulger throws his curveball a lot and for good reason. That may seem odd for someone with a mid-90s mph fastball, but his curveball is just that good. Fernando Rodney never expected to be the Angels’ closer, but his sore shins have given Bulger an opportunity to bump him out of the set-up role as well. Kevin Jepsen is also a setup candidate, but he may be on the outside looking in if Bulger continues throws his curveball for strikes and Rodney is healthy. Barring another injury, Scot Shields will be Scot Shields. Brian Stokes is a ROOGY at this point. Trevor Bell, Anthony Ortega, Sean O’Sullivan, and Matt Palmer are as fine a collection of spot starters as any group in major league baseball.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM…

Breakthrough Performance…

Jason Bulger

On a team with a lot of known entities including an overrated closer, Bulger’s potential to pick up saves – especially in the second half of the season – may be the most interesting development. A more conventional choice would be Peter Bourjos in the unlikely case that he got significant at bats as a lead-off hitter.

Ready to Rebound…

Scott Kazmir

A full year of Kazmir with a sharp slider would be very impressive. If he can stay healthy, Kazmir could be the factor that puts the Angels over the top in the AL West.

Ready to Disappoint…

Torii Hunter

I hate to say it, but Hunter plays the right way at a very demanding position. Last year’s success actually set him up for what seems likely to be a let down.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

The Angels make a splash at the trade deadline. Attendance hasn’t been bad despite the recession, so the organization could take on payroll, and age and inconsistency could undermine an otherwise solid roster.

Be Shocked If…

Hank Conger gets much of a look this year. The Angels are infamous for being slow with prospects and Mike Scioscia is likely to be particularly cautious with a catcher.

Rock Steady…

Mike Scioscia has guided the Angels to turnover and personal adversity to a 900-720 record and a World Series championship through ten seasons.

Achilles Heel…

Aging Angels in the Outfield

If Bobby Abreu and Torii Hunter fall off a cliff, who’s there to pick up the slack? Peter Bourjos is intriguing, but untested and Mike Trout is even further away. It’s almost unthinkable, but could the Angels regret dealing Gary Matthews Jr.?

In the Next Three Years…

Watch for the Angels to reap the benefits for compensation picks they have received following the departure of Teixeira, Lackey, Figgins, Francisco Rodriguez, and Jon Garland.

Goosebumps Moment…

If the Angels can win the AL West again, one has to begin wondering if Mike Scioscia isn’t in the middle of a Hall of Fame career. If he can keep up this success and voters factor in his playing career the case could be very compelling.

One more ‘09 loser to preview as Bill Baer brings you the Philadelphia Phillies tomorrow… then the Champs are here! While you wait, there’s 27 other losers to read about right here.

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