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Philadelphia Phillies

‘08 Record: 92-70, 1st in NL East
Pythagorean Record: 93-69 (-1)
Current PECOTA Projection: 87-75, 2nd in NL East

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2008 Recap

If we had to sum up the Phillies’ 2008 season in three words… we would let Chase Utley have the honor. It was Utley’s emotional outburst that best exemplified the cathartic release the Phillies’ World Series run allowed the city of Philadelphia — a city that thought it would never again see a World Champion.

Since 1983, the last time a Philly team won it all, the Phillies made the post-season only twice, and lost once in the World Series in 1993; the Eagles made the post-season a lot with their most poignant loss coming against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XXXIX in 2005; the Flyers made the post-season several times and got swept the only time they got to the Stanley Cup in 1997 against the Detroit Red Wings; and, finally, the Sixers also made the playoffs a handful of times but got edged out down the stretch in 2001 against the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals.

So you can imagine how important the Phillies’ World Series victory is to the City of Brotherly Love after so much repetitive failure.

The ‘08 season saw Cole Hamels’ rise to superstardom, as he is now one of the star pitchers about whom ESPN has regular injury updates. Fancy that. Hamels was also recently on the cover of Sports Illustrated. It remains to be seen whether or not that’s a bad thing.

During the regular season, Hamels threw over 227 innings with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, yet somehow did not even receive one vote of any kind in the NL Cy Young award balloting.

It was in the post-season that Hamels really showed what he was capable of doing, nearly becoming the only pitcher in baseball history to attain a perfect 5-0 record in the playoffs. Alas, the rain made Game 5 of the World Series a laugher instead of a competitive game of baseball, but despite the weather, Hamels pitched six innings with only two runs allowed before commissioner Bud Selig demanded the game be suspended.

Jayson Werth busted out as a premier power-hitting outfielder. Initially, he was splitting time with Geoff Jenkins in right field, but with Jenkins slowing down and not hitting as well as he used to, Werth usurped the everyday role. With his power (24 dingers in just over 400 at-bats) he also brought speed, as he stole 20 bags in 21 attempts.

Any recap of the Phillies’ ‘08 run has to include Brad Lidge, who quite literally had a perfect season as the closer. He was 41-for-41 in regular season save opportunities with a 1.95 ERA and K/9 rate just about at 12. His slider, which he used about 13% more than his fastball, was his go-to pitch, but in a peculiar way. To quote Peter Bendix from Beyond the Box Score in an article from September 24 of last year:

It seems rather odd that Lidge has managed to post the exact same strikeout and walk numbers as last year, despite a noticeable decline in his velocity, a vastly different pitch selection, and different amounts of called and swinging strikes than the previous year. Often times, when a pitcher shows trends like this, I’m inclined to believe it could be the sign of him getting worse. However, in Lidge’s case this may not be so. Although his fastball and slider velocities are down, he is still throwing both very hard. And the fact that he has still maintained a high strikeout rate suggests that he is as dominant as ever, even with somewhat “diminished” stuff.

To finish off the recap, we will bid adieu to Pat Burrell, with the Phillies since he was drafted first overall in the 1998 draft. Now a Tampa Bay Ray, Burrell left Philly in style. Despite struggling throughout the entire playoffs, he got a hit when the Phillies needed it the most — late in Game 5 of the World Series. It was the bottom of the seventh and Burrell was leading off against lefty J.P. Howell. Howell left a slider over the plate, which “The Bat” smoked off of the fence in left-center for a double. Burrell would be lifted for pinch-runner Eric Bruntlett, who eventually scored on the World Series-winning hit — a single by Pedro Feliz.

If you’re going to go out, there aren’t too many better ways to do it than contribute to the game-winning run of the World Series. (Editors note: This was a pretty stylish move by Burrell, too… too bad for that picture, though!)

2009 Outlook

The Phillies are looking to repeat.

Tell us something we don’t know!

The Phillies have most of their core from last season intact aside from Burrell, replaced by Raul Ibanez. New GM Ruben Amaro excellently handled eight arbitration cases but, in doing so, ballooned the payroll up over $130 million. All offseason, the Phillies were hunting for a left-handed reliever to take over in J.C. Romero’s stead, as the expressive lefty is suspended for the first 50 regular season games as a result of testing positive for a banned substance. Additionally, the Phils were interested in adding a new piece or two to the bench (even Nomar Garciaparra), but were unsuccessful in doing so as a result of the inflated payroll.

Nevertheless, the Phillies have the best offense and defense in the division, with their starting pitching and bullpen not far behind that of the rival New York Mets. Most of the NL East got stronger over the offseason, so it will be even harder to win the division. The Mets added two great relief pitchers; the Braves added three above-average starters; and the Nationals added Adam Dunn and have pitcher Jordan Zimmermann on the rise.

It will be a struggle for any team in the NL East to get to 90 wins, but expect the Phils and Mets to have some epic battles for the rights to first place. It won’t take long for the Phillies to tire of Francisco Rodriguez’s antics on the mound.

The ‘09 Team

Catcher

Carlos Ruiz will be back behind the plate. Although he’s not particularly productive in any aspect, he does handle the pitching staff extremely well according to most within the Phillies organization, so that has to count for something.

Ronny Paulino was just traded by the Phillies to the San Francisco Giants for left-handed reliever Jack Taschner, which effectively means that Chris Coste will once again back up Ruiz.

If the Phillies can’t get any production out of their backup catchers, there’s a chance we might see prospect Lou Marson, coveted by many Major League teams including the Boston Red Sox.

Infield

At first base is perennial slugger Ryan Howard. Don’t be fooled by his rapidly-declining OPS+ (from 167 to 144 to 124) — his struggles last season can be attributed to seeing lefties 38% of the time, an extremely high percentage, as well as simply having bad luck on balls in play.

Chase Utley, rebounding quickly from offseason hip surgery, will be back at second base. Initial timetables for his return pointed to June as optimistic, but Utley is looking to be ready by Opening Day. Utley turned in one of the finest defensive seasons in a long time, a +47 according to John Dewan’s +/-. The next closest competitor to Utley defensively: Mark Ellis at +26. Dewan recently wrote an article for The Hardball Times, concluding that Utley was so good defensively due to positioning. Oh yeah, Chase Utley is pretty good with the stick, too. If he can stay healthy all season, he’s a virtual lock as an MVP contender.

Known as much for his trademark smile as his success on the diamond, Jimmy Rollins returns for his ninth season as the Phillies’ everyday shortstop. Despite not having nearly as much success last year as he did in ‘07, there is reason for optimism with the 30-year-old from Oakland. He improved his walk rate by 3% from ‘07 to ‘08 and cut his strikeout rate by 2%. Furthermore, 24% of his balls in play were line drives, his highest percentage since ‘03. Overall, Rollins cut down on his swinging and it had a positive effect. Adding even more to his value are his speed (47-for-50 last year) and defense (best defensive shortstop according to Dewan’s +/-).

Finally, at third base is Pedro Feliz, defensive wizard. Coming off a disappointing ‘08 season and offseason back surgery, he is the biggest question mark on the roster right now. Feliz is a free agent after the season if the team doesn’t pick up his 2010 option, so he could be one of the few Phillies available for trade in July. Jason Donald, a prospect whose road to the Majors is blocked, could get some time at third base in the Minors. If Feliz can’t produce at the level the Phillies expected when they signed him, it would be no surprise to see Donald take over some or most of the playing time at the hot corner.

Outfield

Raul Ibanez takes over in left field, the spot vacated by Pat Burrell. The two are similar both offensively and defensively. Ibanez makes a bit more contact but Burrell has slightly more power, and both are putrid in the field. Overall, it’s a break-even exchange. However, the fact that Ibanez is left-handed limits manager Charlie Manuel’s lineup flexibility. Ideally, a right-hander should be in the #3 or #5 spot with the expectation that the righty will decrease the probability an opposing manager will bring in a LOOGY for Chase Utley and/or Ryan Howard.

“The Flyin’ Hawaiian” Shane Victorino, will bring his energy and infectious smile back to center field. According to John Walsh in an article he wrote for The Hardball Times, Victorino had the third-best throwing arm among all Major League outfielders in 2008, behind only Matt Kemp and B.J. Upton. He was also among the best base-stealers with 36 swipes in 47 attempts. Offensively, he’s about average — we can find him within about 10 points on either side of a 100 OPS+.

In right, we have the resurgent Jayson Werth. He once thought his career was over until he ran into a neighbor who suggested he have his wrist examined at the Mayo Clinic. Eventually, he had surgery on the wrist, and the Phillies snapped him up when the Dodgers let him go. That seems to have worked out.

Werth is similar to Victorino, but he also has a lot of power as a hitter. He’s excellent defensively, has great speed and steals bases at a well-above-average rate, and he’s great with the stick — he’s a bona fide lefty-masher. The Phillies would maximize Werth’s value by platooning him with a competent left-handed hitter but Geoff Jenkins isn’t that attractive these days.

Starting Rotation

“On days when Cole Hamels pitches, it has become common practice for the opposing manager to hand in his lineup card with the letters “R.I.P” after the name of each of his players.” It’s true!

Many proponents of the Verducci Effect are wary of the 262 total innings Hamels threw last year in the regular season and playoffs. Add in that he’s had some elbow problems already, and Phillies fans are holding their breath. A healthy Hamels makes the Phillies slight NL East favorites, but if he misses significant time, it’s all about playing catch-up in the East.

Aside from Hamels, the Phillies have Brett Myers and Joe Blanton, who should be good for a 4-ish ERA or better, and Jamie Moyer, who needs to have Lady Luck on his side to reenact his success from last season. The fifth spot will belong to the winner of the competition between J.A. Happ and Chan Ho Park. Both have been pitching well thus far in spring training, but it may be moot depending on how badly the Phillies want another left-hander in the bullpen.

Bullpen

Mr. Perfect, Brad Lidge, will resume shutting the door in the ninth inning for the Phightin’s. Don’t expect another perfect season but Lidge should, once again, be one of the better relievers in baseball thanks to a devastating slider.

J.C. Romero will miss the first 50 games of the season after testing positive last year for a banned substance. I won’t get into the specifics of the situation, but I will say that Romero was shafted by an ambiguous drug policy with regards to what he was using, and the fact that the MLBPA (and his team’s front office) did nothing to back him up.

Scott Eyre was very effective last season after being traded to the Phillies from the Chicago Cubs. In 19 appearances and 14 and one-third innings, Eyre allowed just three earned runs and had a meager WHIP of 0.77. He and Jack Taschner will share the duty of getting out tough left-handed hitters late in the game.

Taschner is no Romero, but he should be good enough to get the job done. He doesn’t have a big difference in his platoon splits; however, his BABIP against lefties is .345 in 295 plate appearances. That’s a bit high, and with an elite defense behind him, he should be more effective against lefties than his numbers indicate.

Ryan Madson really turned the corner last season, specifically in September. He was good all season but was other-worldly when the Phillies were securing their second straight division title. Madson was more aggressive against hitters and added more velocity to his fastball. As a result, he struck out 17 hitters and allowed just one earned run in 14 innings in September.

A full season of the “new” Madson should bode well for the Phillies as he’ll be the most integral part of the “Bridge to Lidge.”

Elsewhere, the Phillies have Chad Durbin and Clay Condrey to eat up innings in middle relief. Durbin was effective last season for the first four months and then just ran out of gas in August. The likely reason was that Charlie Manuel used him a lot during the first half. Durbin’s ERA in each month from April to September:

With Lidge, Madson, Eyre, Durbin, and Condrey, there are two spots left to fill, at least for the first 50 games. One will go to the loser of the Happ/Park battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, and the last will be filled via trade right before the start of the season, or to one of the pitchers impressing in Spring Training, like Mike Koplove or Gary Majewski.

Around the Horn with the Philadelphia Phillies

Best Case Scenario…

Eyre effectively fills Romero’s shoes as the LOOGY, Utley and Feliz aren’t negatively affected by their off-season surgeries, Howard proves the naysayers wrong by putting up more mythical power numbers a la 2006, Ibanez effectively replaces Burrell, Hamels’ elbow problems turn out to be nothing, and the starting rotation continues to be fortunate on balls in play thanks to the Phillies’ great defense.

Worst Case Scenario…

Manuel puts Utley, Howard, and Ibanez in the 3-5 spots in the lineup, making them extremely susceptible to other teams’ LOOGY’s, cutting down on the overall offensive production. The Phillies’ defense regresses by a significant amount, which really hurts Moyer since he relies so heavily on balls in play being converted into outs. Hamels’ tender elbow sidelines him for a significant amount of time. The conglomeration of all these issues opens the door for the rest of the NL East to jet past the Phillies in the standings.

Breakthrough Performance…
J.A. Happ or Chan Ho Park

There’s no more Adam Eaton, so any production out of the #5 spot is welcome by the Phillies.

Ready to Rebound…
J.C. Romero

When he returns from his 50-game suspension he’ll be fresher than most relievers down the stretch, which might turn out to be just what the Phillies need.

Ready to Disappoint…
The Starting Rotation

On paper, the #2-5 spots should be above-average, but Myers is volatile, Moyer relies on a great defense, Blanton can go into the tank, and the #5 spot is, well, the #5 spot. It can get ugly real quick.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

A Phillie wins both the NL MVP and the NL Cy Young awards.

Be Shocked If…

The Phillies win less than 85 games.

In the Next Three Years…

The Phillies have some work to do. Ruben Amaro handled the eight arbitration cases excellently over the recent off-season, but with mostly one- and two-year deals, they are going to pop up again and Amaro will have to turn the players away or shell out more money. The Phillies team we see today is going to be almost completely different than the one we see in 2012.

Team Song…

“Prequel to the Sequel” by Between the Buried and Me.

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There you have it folks… 30 days, 30 previews. We didn’t even ask for a sick day or a bailout. Check back next week for the BDD teams fearless (and foolish) predictions on the upcoming season… but don’t forget to check out all of the other team previews, too!

AL East
Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays

AL Central
Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins

AL West
Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers

NL East
Atlanta Braves, Florida Marlins, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies (above), Washington Nationals

NL Central
Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals

NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants

————–

Tampa Bay Rays

‘08 Record: 97-65, 1st in AL East
Pythagorean Record: 92-70 (+5)
Current PECOTA Projection: 94-68, 3rd in AL East

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2008 Recap

By now, even the most casual sports fan has heard about the Rays season of 2008. While experts predicted improvement over the team’s last place finish in 2007, nobody saw coming what the Rays accomplished in 2008.

It was truly a season of first’s in Tampa, with the team winning 90 games for the first time, qualifying for their first post-season, winning their first American League East title, and winning their first American League pennant. Third baseman Evan Longoria, who wasn’t called up from Triple-A until May, became the first Ray to win the AL Rookie of the Year award, and he was a legitimate MVP candidate, as well.

The team also saw a sharp increase in attendance, greatly attributed to the team’s run toward the playoffs. The only real “negative” from last season was that they didn’t win the World Series.

2009 Outlook

It’s hard to imagine the Rays recapturing the magic from last season, when everything seemed to go their way. In the Tampa Bay area and around the nation, the Rays were seen as a “team of destiny”.

This season, they are seen as legitimate World Series contenders, so the key will be how the young players respond to having such high expectations coming into the season. Ownership upgraded the payroll in the offseason with the addition of former Phillies outfielder Pat Burrell, and the team is hoping for a continued increase in attendance.

But according to GM Andrew Friedman, the increase in payroll has put a limit on the flexibility the team has to add pieces at the trade deadline. The starting pitching, which was the team’s strength last season, should continue to improve, and Burrell should add power to a lineup that lacked it last season. And with a farm system with a seemingly endless supply of top prospects, the future will be bright in Tampa Bay for 2009 and beyond.

The ’09 Team

Catcher

Dioner Navarro is entrenched as the starter, coming off his best season as a pro which saw him make his first All-Star team. It is hard to expect Navarro to have the same kind of season at the plate, but with his defense and ability to call games, the Rays have a pretty good catcher no matter what he does at the dish. Shawn Riggans is the backup, and though he missed the end of last season with an injury, he is getting used to his role this spring and Rays manager Joe Maddon said Riggans will “thrive”.

Infield

This is the first season in years that the Rays don’t have any issues to sort out during Spring Training — no position battles, no uncertainly around the diamond. Carlos Pena, last season’s Gold Glover for the American League, is the quiet leader of the team. He hit .247 last year and though his average was among the lowest of all MLB first baseman, he still provided plenty of power and clutch hits, with 31 homers and 102 RBI.

Converted third baseman Akinori Iwamura begins his second season at second base for the Rays. Management wasn’t sure what to expect in Aki’s first year at his new position, but his defense was a pleasant surprise, and he made a seamless transition. He’ll continue to lead-off for the Rays.

Defensive specialist Jason Bartlett is the starting shortstop, and he’ll most likely bat ninth, a spot in the order he regularly found himself in last season. Bartlett is not expected to be a major contributor on offense, but because his play in the field is so superb, it is a non-issue.

Evan Longoria will be the Rays starting third baseman for many years to come. He hit .272 with 27 home runs and 85 RBI on his way to winning the AL ROY award, and the only thing to worry about with him is a “sophomore slump”. Longoria had a wrist injury in the latter part of last season, so that is something to remember as this year progresses.

Ben Zobrist, who has played shortstop, second base and all three spots in the outfield, and Willy Aybar, provide depth off the bench. Veteran Adam Kennedy has played well and has a good shot to make the club as additional help of the bench.

Outfield

Center fielder B.J. Upton is one of the best in the game. A suspect left shoulder severely limited his power in 2008, but off-season surgery should lead to an increase in production. He will probably miss the first week to 10 days of the season, but if his shoulder is 100-percent, his first 30-30 year would certainly not surprise anybody. Zobrist is expected to start in center until Upton is ready.

Carl Crawford seems like the elder statesman for the Rays in left field. He begins his eighth season with the team, and he continues to be one of the premier left fielders in the game.

Right field seems to be the only position on the Rays that isn’t totally sorted out. The team traded 14-game winner Edwin Jackson to the Detroit Tigers for Matt Joyce, an up-and-comer who was expected to see the most time in right field. But Joyce is just starting to get on the field after missing the first few weeks of camp with what was originally thought to be a calf injury (since diagnosed as tendinitis). The team signed Gabe Kapler in the offseason, so he’ll platoon with Gabe Gross, at least until the team knows what it has in Joyce.

The wild card in the outfield was Fernando Perez, the speedy Columbia University product who was expected to be on the final roster if Upton’s shoulder wasn’t ready. But Perez injured his wrist diving for a ball on March 11 and will be out for three months. Joyce is expected to be the fifth outfielder, if the team decides to keep one.

Designated Hitter

Pat Burrell was signed away from the Phillies for $16 million over two years to be the team’s everyday designated hitter. With Maddon leaning toward having him bat fifth, behind Longoria and Pena, expect Burrell to be a big run-producer and power jolt to the offense. Crawford could occasionally see some time here, with Burrell or others taking his spot in left field.

Starting Rotation

James Shields overtook Scott Kazmir as the ace of the staff in 2008. Shields went 14-8 with a 3.56 ERA and won many big games for the team down the stretch. Kazmir, who didn’t make his first start until May, frustrated the team and fans alike with his high pitch count, high walk, five-inning outings, but hard work this offseason on mechanics should make Kazmir better in 2009. Fiery righty Matt Garza and the quietly effective Andy Sonnanstine complete one of the best top-four of any staff in baseball.

Phenom David Price, he of the final four outs of game seven in the ALCS, was expected to be given strong consideration as the No. 5 starter. But the Rays sent him to Triple-A Durham partly because he has options remaining and partly because the team wants to limit the innings on their No. 1 prospect.

With Price out of the picture, 6-foot-9 Jeff Niemann and Jason Hammel are battling for that final spot in the rotation. Maddon said he still isn’t sure what he’ll do, but neither player has options remaining.

Bullpen

Closer Troy Percival is back after having surgery in the off-season. Maddon is very loyal to Percival from their days in the Angels organization, but at any sign of trouble, the manager has plenty of options behind Percy. These option include the returning Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell, all who saw time closing games when Percival was injured. The team brought in Jason Isringhausen for a look, and so far, he has been impressive. While still a long shot to make the Opening Day roster, he adds depth to the team and will be there if needed. Sidearmer Chad Bradford, acquired last season, is on the 60-day DL, so newly acquired Joe Nelson and Brian Shouse (another Sidearmer) will be another arm called on to get big outs in big spots, and the bullpen, for years a huge problem for Tampa Bay, is looking like a huge strength.

Around the Horn with the Tampa Bay Rays

Best Case Scenario…

The team returns to the World Series and wins it. It would help if they don’t have to play a deciding game in a torrential downpour over a three-day period.

Worst Case Scenario…

Longoria suffers the proverbial “sophomore slump”, Upton doesn’t fully recover from shoulder problems, the pitching staff deals with inconsistencies and injuries all season, and the team crashes hard back to the pack in the American League.

Breakthrough Performance…
Matt Garza

In his second season with the Rays, Garza has the best year of all the pitchers, winning 17 games and making the All-Star team. He also goes an entire season without arguing with his catcher.

Ready to Rebound…
B.J. Upton

Upton, because of his injured left shoulder, saw a dramatic decrease in power in 2008. After surgery, he responds with his first 30-homer, 30-steal season.

Ready to Disappoint…
The Rays?

The entire team is playing with outrageous expectations from the fans in Tampa Bay. Anything short of a similar season to 2008 will be seen as a disappointment. Kazmir could be in for the biggest decline.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Talk about the team moving out of the Tampa Bay area resurfaces if the team’s attendance continues to be among the league’s worst. Without a new stadium and above-average attendance, Rays ownership feel the team cannot compete in the American League East and may seek to move from Tampa/St. Pete.

Be Shocked If…

The Rays aren’t among the lowest in attendance once again. Last season, they were 12th in the American League, even though that amounted to the second-highest attendance in team history.

In the Next Three Years…

The Rays, coming off a disappointing 2009, buoyed by the approval in Miami of a new stadium for the Marlins, still choose to push the city of Tampa and St. Petersburg for assistance with building a new stadium. The measure is put to a vote across both Hillsborough and Pinellas County and it fails. The team rebounds with a solid 2010 season, losing to the Yankees in the ALCS, but attendance continues to linger below the league average, so the team announces plans to relocate to Las Vegas for the 2012 season.

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And there was one: the World F… errr… Philadelphia Phillies. Check back tomorrow for their preview. While you wait, feel free to check out the other teams around Major League Baseball that we at BDD already previewed:

AL East
Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays (above), Toronto Blue Jays

AL Central
Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins

AL West
Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers

NL East
Atlanta Braves, Florida Marlins, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies (Monday), Washington Nationals

NL Central
Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals

NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants

Tomorrow — Bill Baer covers the Philadelphia Phillies… our final of 30 team previews!

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Boston Red Sox

‘08 Record: 95-67, 2nd in AL East
Pythagorean Record: 95-67
Current PECOTA Projection: 95-67, T-2nd in AL East

———————–

2008 Recap

The Boston Red Sox made it to the playoffs in 2008 and were one game away from their chance to defend their World Championship title. Looking back at what happened to their team during the season, it’s a pretty amazing accomplishment.

Jason Varitek had a terrible season. Just how terrible? Well no other major league regular had a lower line drive percentage, which helped the balls he did hit stay in the infield.

David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo, and Josh Beckett all had less then stellar seasons due to injury and their postseason hero, Curt Schilling wouldn’t throw a pitch for Boston all season long.

Clay Buchholz would lose his spot in the rotation and Manny’s selfish acts would forever ruin his reputation in a city that loved him unconditionally.

Depth and flexibility helped fill holes in the Boston roster. The Red Sox filled spots in their rotation with Paul Byrd, Bartolo Colon, and a handful of others.

Lester was terrific carrying the team with his left arm and Jason Bay made Boston forget about Manny. Youk and Pedroia were amazing, carrying the team in the absence if its disabled veterans and Justin Masterson gave Boston the pitching flexibility they needed. Boston was able to piece together a roster that was good enough to give them what they needed to take the American League wild card but in the end the injuries caught up to the Red Sox.

The spots formerly held by capable hitters were not held by the likes of Alex Cora and Mark Kotsay. The bottom third of the Boston line up ended up costing the Red Sox a spot in the World Series and left the Fenway faithful waiting for next year.

2009 Outlook

Things are looking up for the 2009 Red Sox. They spent a majority of the offseason locking up their young talent for the future, filling minor holes in their roster and signing pitching, a move that has put Boston in an excellent position to acquire an impact player from a team feeling the pressure of the recession before the trade deadline.

Boston will come in the season with the best bullpen in the majors, Clay Buchholz and Junichi Tazawa waiting for their call up in the Minor League, and John Smoltz getting ready to help later in the season.

Boston has a ton of flexibility in their payroll and something everyone wants… pitching.

If Varitek flops again, finding a replacement shouldn’t be hard to do but it will come on Theo Epstein’s terms. Epstein has proven in the past that he isn’t going to part easily with his young pitching and I do not see them overpaying for a backstop.

The biggest concern for the Red Sox coming into the 2009 season is the health of the middle of its lineup. Drew, Lowell and Ortiz have to be big concerns for Boston because without them, the lineup takes a completely different shape. If healthy, Boston will be the favorite to win the division but it’s a gigantic IF.

People need to remember that Tampa will have a tough time repeating what they did last year and New York needed to make the significant investment in the superstars they did just to return to the level of Boston and Tampa. This division could go to either of the three.

The ’09 Team

Catcher

After losing out on millions thanks to the advice of his agent Scott Boras, Jason Varitek re-upped with the Red Sox on their terms for significantly less money than he would have received if he had gone to arbitration. Tek had an awful offensive year in 2008 but Boston didn’t bring him back for his bat. He’s an established leader on the team and the pitchers trust him to call a good game. Limiting Tek to batting right handed could help in his offensive production.

Infield

Kevin Youkilis will return to first base in 2009 after filling in for the injured Mike Lowell at third. Youkilis provides the team with Gold Glove caliber defense and has developed quite a bit of pop in his bat. The home runs have not come without cost though. Youk’s seen a decrease in the number of walks from 91 in ’06 to 77 in ’07 and 62 in ’08. The decrease in walks is a pretty good trade off for the increase in home runs considering he hasn’t seen an increase in his K’s and his OBP has been about the same the last three years.

Reigning MVP Dustin Pedroia will come into the season carrying high expectations from both the fans and the front office while manning second base. There are no indications that Pedroia shouldn’t be able to continue to impress at the plate. The biggest question for Pedroia in ’09 will be how he plans to top his MVP award the way he topped his ROY award in ’08.

With Julio Lugo starting the season on the DL, Jed Lowrie will come into ’09 as the starting shortstop. Lowrie came into 2008 with the expectation that he’s be Pedroia’s twin across the diamond but hardly lived up to what fans wanted him to be. Lowrie is still relatively young (25) so more time in the Majors may help him. It’s likely that Lugo will take over the role upon returning from the DL leaving the Red Sox without a reliable option at starting shortstop for another season.

After having season ending labrum surgery during the playoffs, Lowell will return to the hot corner for Boston. All signs have pointed to a healthy return for Lowell but at age 35, its still an area of concern for the Red Sox. Lowell has had a great deal of success in spring training and shown that he’s been able to play in back to back games so things are looking up for Lowell and his surgically repaired hip.

Outfield

For the first time since 2001 Boston will have a starting left fielder not named Manny Ramirez. His replacement, Jason Bay did a mighty fine job filling his shoes and proving that his knee injury is a thing of the past. Bay’s power returned in ’08 to where it was before his injury and he’ll be playing for a contract in ’09, hopefully in Boston. The fan’s welcomed him with open arms and his outgoing and humble personality made it easy to forget the headache he replaced.

Jacoby Ellsbury will continue the tradition of speedy defensive minded center fielders in Boston. Ellsbury proved he was able to make the necessary adjustments in ’08 after rebounding from an awful June/July in which he hit .246/.271/.308 by hitting .314/.352/.463 in the final two months of the season. Boston’s brass feels he’s turned the corner and believe there’s no reason he shouldn’t put together a successful end to end season.

The biggest question in the Boston outfield resides in its right side. J.D. Drew and his ailing back provide so much to the Boston line up when he’s on the field but his durability really brings down what he’s able to contribute. Drew, who’s averaged around 500 plate appearances since joining the Red Sox, gives the lineup some additional pop, something that will likely be lost considering the huge drop off in skills of his replacements.

Designated Hitter

David Ortiz took the entire off-season to get rest and rehab his write in hopes or returning to the form he was before the injury. Ortiz started the ’08 season with an awful slump before the injury hit and he spent the rest of the season trying to put it all back together. Starting off with a clean slate in ’09 can only help the burly lefty but if he continues to miss hittable pitches like he did in ’08 then there may be a big problem for David and the Red Sox considering he can’t play the field.

Starting Rotation

Boston has more starters than they know what to do with coming into the ’09 season. It’s an excellent position to be in considering pitching surplus has a way of disappearing quickly as the season goes on. Four of Boston’s starting five are above average with three being very good.

Ace Josh Beckett came into camp in much better shape than he did at the start of the ’08 season and has had strong outings in spring training leading people to believe that he should return to his ’07 form without incident.

Lefty Jon Lester showed everyone in ’08 why Theo chose to stick with him over Johan Santana. Lester bears a striking statistical resemblance to Cole Hamels but without the arm trouble. The only concern with Lester coming into ’09 is the big increase in innings pitched. The effects of this type of increase tend to show their effects in the following season so the Red Sox will need to monitor the situation closely if he starts off shaky.

‘09 WBC MVP Dice –K Matsuzaka put up impressive numbers last season but his walks continued to be a problem. The numbers suggest that Dice-K has been walking a thin line between success and failure and any breakdown or regression could result in huge failure for Matsuzaka.

Tim Wakefield returns to the Red Sox for his 14th season on his never ending contract with the Red Sox. Wake, who has eaten innings for Boston at a better than league average rate could be starting his last season with the Sox if the youngsters make an impact in ’09. Wake could end up losing his job not because of performance but due to the sheer fact that there are just too many younger arms with a ton of upside ready to contribute on the major league level.

Brad Penny has been slated as the fifth starter but no one is really sure if he’ll be able to pitch an entire season without getting hurt. Just one year removed from a 16-4 season in which he finished third in NL Cy Young voting, Penny provides a lot of upside for Boston if he’s able to stay healthy. If Penny goes down, Justin Masterson, Clay Buchholz and Junichi Tazawa are all willing and able to fill his spot.

Bullpen

Anchored by Jonathan Papelbon, the Boston bullpen is clearly the best in baseball. We saw what having an excellent bullpen meant to the Rays in ’08 and if nothing else, could give Boston the edge between the big three in the AL East. This bullpen will allow the Red Sox to shorten games and preserve its stating pitching throughout the season and a healthy rotation is one of the biggest precursors to postseason success.

The addition of Takashi Saito and Ramon Ramirez are huge improvements over Timlin and Aardsma and allow Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Masterson, and Javier Lopez to fill roles normally reserved for players with a lot less talent. Boston’s bullpen is comprised of pitchers who would normally be eighth inning men on any other team and this will prove to help Boston more than people realize.

Around the Horn With the Boston Red Sox

Best Case Scenario…

World Series Champs! For this to happen, Boston will need to remain healthy and play to their ability. Due to the high level of competition within the division, they need to have all the “if’s” associated with the team work out in their favor. Boston could still pull it off without all the “if’s” going their way but it will take some work from the front office.

Worst Case Scenario…

Boston finishes third behind New York and Tampa Bay. If any of their big offensive producers go down, Boston will have a hard time finding replacements. Offensive depth is the biggest weakness with this team and Boston has the blue chips available to find a replacement but any hiccup in production could give New York or Tampa the opportunity they need to gain an advantage.

Breakthrough Performance…
Lars Anderson

Boston’s offense provides the biggest opportunity for a player to come in due to an injury and shine. Drew, Ortiz, and Lowell are the most likely to go down and Youkilis will be the clear choice to fill the gap leaving an opportunity at either first or DH. Anderson can hit and has power. If given the opportunity, he could have real success.

Ready to Rebound…
Clay Buchholz

Many people thought that Buchholz lost it last year when in reality he was just going through an adjustment period. Buchholz has had success throughout his entire career with this being his first set back. It happens to every pitcher and this was just Buchholz’s time to take a step back. Buchholz will come back as a better pitcher and has shown his stuff in Spring Training.

Ready to Disappoint…
Jed Lowrie

There isn’t anything to suggest that Lowrie will have success in the Majors. He hit just .258 despite a high BABIP and line-drive rate and struggled against righties despite being a switch hitter. He has limited range and strikes out too much and the Red Sox will be left with a gleaming hole at the SS position for yet another year.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

The Red Sox are the American Leagues’ representatives in the 2009 World Series. If past performance is any indicator of future success then Boston’s starting pitching, bullpen, offense, and depth will pave a path to yet another Boston Championship.

Be Shocked If…

The Red Sox don’t make the playoffs. They have too much upside to not make it and if something goes wrong along they way, they have the resources to fix it and fix it fast. Pitching will prove to be the difference between the big three in the East.

In the Next Three Years…

The Red Sox will remain a favorite to win the World Series. Boston’s young players have been locked up for years to come at an affordable price, the front office is the best in baseball, and they have a strong group of young quality arms ready to make an impact.

Final Thoughts…

The fruits of the front office’s hard work has just begun to show its rewards. Their ability to win in different ways has shown that they are innovative and flexible in their outlook and it gives them an advantage over teams like the Yankees who tend to try the same things over and over again. The Boston Red Sox are built to win now and in the future and have the resources to supplement their weaknesses when needed. The sun should be shining bright over Fenway for years to come.

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With only the Rays and the Phillies previews remaining, here’s a link to the teams you may have missed:

AL East
Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox (Above), New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays (Sunday), Toronto Blue Jays

AL Central
Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins

AL West
Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers

NL East
Atlanta Braves, Florida Marlins, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies (Monday), Washington Nationals

NL Central
Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals

NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants

Tomorrow — Jason Pafundi profiles the Tampa Bay Rays
Monday — Bill Baer brings us home with the Philadelphia Phillies