Posted by Dan Wade on Wednesday, September 1, 2010 at 10:48 pm

It’s unlikely that the Twins will boast the AL MVP in 2010—Justin Morneau had a legitimate shot given his first half and Joe Mauer has been among baseball’s best in the second half, but the full-year efforts of Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, and Josh Hamilton make it extremely tough to believe that a Twin will take the crown.

Francisco Liriano will absolutely get a few Cy Young votes, but Felix Hernandez, Trevor Cahill, and CC Sabathia are all likely to outpace him, so it looks like it will be an award-less year for the Twins.

Unless.

The last time a Twin won rookie of the year was some 15 years ago when Marty Cordova won the title for the 1995 Twins—then promptly taught fans what “plantar fasciitis” was and what it could do to even a talented player. They’ve had plenty of talented players since then, but Mauer was hurt his rookie year, Liriano was as well, and the rest had to grow into their skills. Could 2010 be the year they get their first since the 21^st century began?

Their hopes rest on Danny Valencia, a 19^th round pick out of the University of Miami, who made his debut on June 3, but didn’t see consistent action until the middle of July. It took injuries to the entire Twins infield—Morneau, Orlando Hudson, Alexi Casilla, and Nick Punto have all had at least one DL stint sometime between July 1 and the middle of August, while JJ Hardy missed substantial time due to a lingering wrist injury—to get Valencia the playing time he needed to make an impact.

Valencia became an everyday player on July 24, going 3-for-5 against the Orioles in game one of a four game stretch that saw him go 14-for-19 including a grand slam off Zack Greinke. Going into Wednesday night’s game against the Tigers, Valencia is hitting .338/.373/.496 since he forced his way into Ron Gardenhire’s day-to-day lineup and .328/.373/.446 overall since his call-up.

His defense, too, has been impressive as Valencia has made few rookie mistakes at third base and has amassed a solid UZR, albeit in too few innings to call it a full sample. Assuming he continues to play solid defense—something he did in the minors as well—he’ll finish 2010 among the best defenders in the majors at 3B (though behind Nick Punto…whatever that means).

Valencia wouldn’t crack the top five in the National League, not with Buster Posey, Jason Heyward, Steven Strasburg, Starlin Castro, and Gabby Sanchez locking down a tight race, but the AL race is much more open. And the lack of a truly obvious choice is what gives Valencia hope.

He already boasts the fourth highest VORP (value over replacement player) among rookies in the AL, despite having the second fewest plate appearances. Carlos Santana currently ranks third, but it seems unlikely that he’ll garner enough votes—stellar though he was while he played—because of his season ending injury, which leaves Valencia with two real competitors ahead of him and one serious threat behind him.

Brennan Boesch is Valencia’s nearest competitor, and if he had maintained his performance from the first half over the course of a full season, he’d be running away with this race.

His first-half line of .342/.397/.593 was a product of some combination of moderate skill, being an unknown commodity, and a whole bunch of luck. His .384 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was ripe for regression, but who knew it would be so…stark. His BABIP in the second half fell to .191 as part of an overall drop in production that left him with a line of .153/.220/.227 and severely crippled his chances of winning the ROY. Nevertheless, his solid production isn’t going away and voters may still look favorably upon his contribution at the time when the Tigers’ injury woes were near their worst.

Rays catcher John Jaso is something of a dark horse in this race, as he wasn’t even listed among the Rays top 15 prospects heading into the season. Still, as the starting catcher for a team likely headed for a playoff berth and a possible AL East title, Jaso has earned the publicity he’s receiving. He’s hitting .280/.388/.396, which shows you his greatest strength as well as his biggest weakness.

Jaso’s plate discipline is outstanding; he’s walked some 47 times while striking out just 32 times in over 320 PAs, but he has just 21 extra-base hits over that same period. Jaso has the extra advantage of being a catcher, voters do love a catcher that hits well, but his OPS of 783 isn’t much above average (733) despite the fact that his OBP of .388 is vastly superior to the league average of .327.

While it’s possible that Jaso could win the award because of his position and increased visibility, it seems unlikely to me. He might have done enough to earn it in a down year, but voters have shown that they consider power an integral part of the equation when voting for any award and that’s not Jaso’s strong suit.

The front-runner here is another Tiger rookie, he of the .417 BABIP, Austin Jackson. While he may not have made fans forget about Curtis Granderson, he’s given them enough highlight reel material to make them hopeful for the future. Ultimately, it’s Jackson’s award to lose at this point. His defense has been better than expected and he’s been an offensive machine at the top of the Tigers’ lineup. He strikes out way too much, an AL best 138 going into play Wednesday, but that’s about the only bad thing you can say about the center fielder.

Jackson has had luck on his side—see his aforementioned BABIP—but his skill is no joke. His .304/.357/.406 line with 21 steals isn’t the product of a single hot month, or even one good half. Jackson started the year with a .364/.422/.495 in the months of March and April and while he’s cooled off just a little from there, he’s been a consistent hitter and a solid fielder for a Detroit team that has needed consistent production as their lineup has been in flux to say the least.

If the voting happened now, Jackson runs away with the award and you’d be hard pressed to say he didn’t deserve it, but Valencia has a chance to sway some voters because of the Twins battle in the AL Central.

Valencia doesn’t really have a chance to steal this award. The only way he’ll be the first Twin this millennium to win the ROY is if he continues to hit near .330, play stellar defense, and flash a little power. If he does that, he’ll deserve the award on his own merits, given that his performance will be on par with Jackson, albeit in fewer games. Like Jaso, simply being a key piece of a winning team won’t be enough to push Valencia over the edge, but with the AL Central looking like it will be a race worth watching deep into September, Valencia will get a chance to woo voters who might have missed his earlier exploits.