Pacific Perspectives: Eastern Relief

Posted by Michael Street on Wednesday, July 28, 2010 at 12:21 am

One of the frequent themes of my column is the success of Asian relief pitchers instead of starting pitchers—unlike the long-running debate on the absence of left-handed catchers in MLB, there are some rather plausible and well-accepted theories for why this isn’t true.

The best theory is that Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) is a breaking-ball league; whether this is due to coaching or talent is another nature-vs.-nurture debate. But breaking-ball pitchers without a great fastball get tagged the second or third time through a lineup. A similar theory surrounds the herky-jerky motion taught to Asian hurlers, which only fools batters for so long.

Another explanation relates to the heavy workload of Asian pitchers: Korean players seem to undergo TJS as a rite of passage, one that often happens right around puberty, due to overwork. Starters break down, so the Asian pitchers that succeed are those who remain in a relief role.

This season, we’ve seen many of these theories borne out, as Koji Uehara and Kenshin Kawakami were both sent to the bullpen (one due to inconsistency, the other to injury), while Daisuke Matsuzaka has remained his usual frustrating self. After shaking up the transpacific baseball world and rising to the majors in one season, Junichi Tazawa is out for the year with TJS. Only Hiroki Kuroda has been solid, if unspectacular, as the pick of the pack among starters.

So, this week I want to take a look at those successful relievers—though that’s a relative term. I’ve ranked them conveniently from best to worst, with an emphasis on the latter. It seems that The Year of the Pitcher hasn’t worked its way Eastward, with one big exception.

1. Hong-Chih Kuo has eclipsed Chien-Ming Wang (another injured starter) as Taiwan’s best arm. Really, he’s one of MLB’s top arms, even if his shaky health history (he makes Joel Zumaya look positively durable) keeps the Dodgers biting their nails. He’s well on his way to a career season, whiffing 11.1 per 9, giving up just 3 ER in 32.1 IP for a microscopic 0.84 ERA.

And while he provides excellent protection against fellow lefties—they have yet to pick up a hit against him in 38 PAs—righties  can’t do much against him, either, hitting just .173. A correction is coming, as he can’t sustain a 94% strand rate and a teeny .190 BABIP and 2.9% HR/FB, but he’s still awfully good. No doubt, he’s the cream of the Eastern relief crop, and the best Asian arm in the game.

2. There’s a pretty big dropoff after Kuo, as there would be with relievers from any country, but Takashi Saito falls solidly into the second spot. After proving to Boston that his elbow wasn’t as bad as people had feared, the former Dodgers closer signed with Atlanta in the offseason. Intended as an insurance policy/setup man to Billy Wagner, who hasn’t needed to activate that policy. Still, after some early-season scuffles, Saito has settled down and filled that setup role.

His 11.4 K/9 is nearing his 2008 levels, as is his 3.2 BB/9, and both are down from 2009. And a 2.68 FIP and 2.99 xFIP show that his 3.41 ERA and 1.14 WHIP are well-deserved. With no danger signs underlying his season, Saito should remain a rock in the Atlanta bullpen as they head down the stretch towards a Bobby Cox farewell pennant.

3. Tops on the Converted Starter list is Koji Uehara, who had been both a starter and a closer in NPB, and people were suggesting he’d be Baltimore’s closer almost as soon as he signed with them. After a season of trying to keep a creaky Uehara healthy in the rotation, the O’s opted to boot him to the ‘pen in 2010, and he’s done well—when he’s been healthy, that is.

He pitched six games in May before hitting the DL with elbow and hamstring issues, both of which are chronic problems for him. He’d pitched well in limited action before that point, and has continued to do so since returning, with a 2.61 ERA in 10.1 IP, including 11 Ks and 2 BB and 5.1 straight scoreless innings.

Uehara’s only thrown 15.1 IP total for the season, so it’s way too early to draw conclusions, but he does seem poised to seize the closer spot in Baltimore, if he can climb over Mike Gonzalez and Alfredo Simon. Gonzo is coming off the DL, however, and Simon has coughed up 3ER over his last 4.2 IP, which all means the opportunity to shine could be there for Uehara—if he’s healthy enough to seize it.

4. If there’s a dropoff after Kuo, there’s a chasm after Uehara, a bit like the career trajectory of Hideki Okajima, who slots this high on reputation and history alone. Something doesn’t seem right about Okey-doke, whose ERA, FIP and xFIP have all risen for the past three years, topping out this year at 5.81, 5.01, and 5.16, respectively.

His strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and his .398 BABIP suggests poor pitching more than lucky hitting. Guys are teeing off on him, and Francona is responding by using him in lower-leverage situations. He’s only appeared protecting a lead once in his last five outings, and it was his worst of the five: 2 ER on 5 H, while recording just 2 outs. For a while, Okey-doke was proving the adage that Japanese relievers are better investments than starters, but now he’s becoming the exception to that rule.

5. It’s easy to dismiss Kenshin Kawakami’s relief splits as small samples: he’s given up 3 runs in just one 1-IP relief outing. But he was bad as a starter, too, with a 4.75 ERA that’s earned by his 4.19 FIP, 4.50 xFIP and .299 BABIP. So he might turn things around as a reliever, but continued poor performance seems more likely.

6. If there were a lower number than 6, I’d give it to Fu-Te Ni , but this list is rather short. That’s because Ni’s not even in the majors right now. He followed up his great 2009 debut (3.19 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 31.0 IP) with an awful sophomore season. His ERA ballooned to 6.65, and his WHIP to 2.00, thanks to his inability to find the strike zone, even with a map, flashlight, and The Year of the Pitcher to help him.

The Tigers could use some bullpen help now that they’re contending, but Ni’s down in Triple-A instead, where he’s surrendered 6 ER in 6.1 IP for the Toledo Mud Hens. Like Okajima, something seems to be wrong with Ni, and Detroit hope he figures it out.