Posted by Jeff Lubbers on Monday, July 26, 2010 at 4:49 am

If ever a July win felt like a season-saving victory, the Detroit Tigers’ Sunday night’s come-from-behind victory was it.

For a team that on paper is in the thick of a playoff race but in practicality on the fringes of it, their worst news of the week was not the mounting losses (nine out of their last eleven before salvaging the Sunday night game) but instead the losses of Brandon Inge, Magglio Ordonez, and Carlos Guillen to injuries over the last few days.

In all of baseball the Tigers were likely the team who could least afford the loss of the remaining producing veterans it had left in the starting lineup.  Already on pace to start more first year positional players in at least the last ten years than any other A.L. team, the Tigers found their Sunday lineups filled with either players playing in the minor leagues just weeks before or light-hitting veterans.

Taking a look solely at the starting lineup from the first game on Sunday against Toronto, one almost can’t help but feel sorry for the lineup asked to keep the team in the pennant race (unless you’re Ozzie Guillen):

	2010 HR	2010 RAR	Career RAR
Austin Jackson, CF	1	11	11
Ramon Santiago, 2B	2	18	26
Ryan Raburn, LF	2	-3	15
Miguel Cabrera, DH	24	43	304
Brennan Boesch, RF	12	28	28
Scott Sizemore, 3B	1	-3	-3
Jeff Larish, 1B	0	0	-3
Gerald Laird, C	3	-5	71
Danny Worth, SS	1	3	3
Total:	46	92	452
Cabrera’s Percentage:	52.2%	46.7%	67.3%

 

One could take a fairly reasonable guess by saying it is quite possible that never before has a viable triple crown candidate this late in the season been surrounded by such meager offensive support.  The second and third columns look at “Runs Above Replacement” (RAR).

Without the services of, in particular, Magglio Ordonez for most of the remainder of the season, the Tigers’ offense stands little chance of producing enough to keep the team in shouting distance of both the Twins and White Sox.  Most reports of Ordonez’s injury also mentioned the “silver lining” component of the injury, and that is the near-certainty that Ordonez’s 2011 option will not kick in due to a lack of playing time.  Ordonez and the $15 million he would otherwise been owed in 2011 will instead be added to the growing list of Detroit contracts that will come off the books following the 2010 season.

While it is a slight bit of financial good news for a team that has primarily been looking to trim payroll for the last year, the benefits are not as great as they may appear.  It is true that Ordonez would likely not have earned his 2011 salary given reasonable expectations of a thirty seven year old outfielder, though his continued 2010 production could have kept the team in the playoff race, bringing at least some financial benefits to the team even if they were to just miss the playoffs.

Additionally, there appears to be no obvious in-house solution to replace Ordonez after this season (moving Brennan Boesch to right field just moves the hole over to left field).  Finally, even if Ordonez is not on the roster at all in 2011 someone would have to take his spot and earn at least a major league minimum salary.  Once all of these are added up it appears that a $15 million savings may not be nearly as much of a savings.

It is certainly possible that Ordonez could be brought back at a reduced salary for 2011 (and possibly beyond), though Ordonez’s 2010 production will still be sorely missed by a team desperate for run-producing bats.  Furthermore, both his current injury and his injury past lead one to question his ability to produce with the bat in future years given his aging body.

In all likelihood, the Tigers’ chances of postseason competition will end sometime in the next few weeks amidst a brutal schedule with games against the Rays, Red Sox, White Sox, Angels, more Rays, more White Sox, and Yankees.  However, Sunday’s win against Toronto at least kept hope alive for a few hours for a team hanging on for dear life.