Posted by Doug Thorburn on Friday, July 23, 2010 at 8:05 pm

All Star festivities get a bad rap these days, but at least one event continues to grab my attention year after year: The Futures Game. The greatest prospects of the minor leagues are put on a single stage, from low-A greenhorns to polished AAA players auditioning for the big show.

The game stats are pretty meaningless, but the exhibition represents an unparalleled opportunity for scouting. Players ramp up their game to put on a show for the fans, the cameras, and the scouts that are in attendance. Batters sprint out groundballs, pitchers rear back to fire their best stuff, and fielders take every opportunity to show off the cannon.

The Futures Game is like the first episode in a season of Top Chef; we are given a very small window to evaluate talent, but the competition is ideal for comparing the athletes. Even a single pitch can be madly informative, as was the case with Pirate farmhand Bryan Morris.

Analyzing these pitchers’ mechanics is similar to using the scouting videos at mlb.com, with the added bonus of a controlled environment loaded with elite competition.  The caveats are also the same, given the small sample of pitches and the typical variance of a players’ mechanics from day to day and throughout the year.

Grades are doled out for specific mechanical traits, just as with the draftees. Some of the grades are limited, due to the sample size constraints. It is especially difficult to gauge mechanical consistency when looking at a single inning, resulting in repetition grades that stay within the single-deviation range of 40 to 60. Players are listed in order of appearance.

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Hellickson was the only player to pitch more than an inning in the Futures Game, completing the first two frames and throwing 25 pitches (18 for strikes). His delivery is as clean as it gets for a prospect, with consistently efficient mechanics on all of his pitches. He features a methodical windup with good balance and absolutely ideal posture; the only thing keeping Hellickson from an 80 posture grade is the sample size, which allows me to hedge bets with a ridiculous score of 75. The righty has exceptional timing and delay of shoulder rotation, allowing the hips to rotate and get the most torque out of his seemingly effortless motion.

If there is a nit to pick, it’s that Hellickson could generate more momentum. His stride is impressive nonetheless, thanks to a high leg kick and the balance to keep the leg off the ground for an extended time, adding some extra distance as he approaches foot strike. Hellickson moves a bit quicker from the stretch, but he preserves his leg kick, eschewing the slide step to preserve his timing and mechanics with runners on base. I am not a big fan of the slide step, because the mechanical costs typically outweigh the baserunning benefits, but Hellickson’s delivery from the stretch is slow enough that runners could take serious advantage. His timing was rarely out of whack, though his arm was so late on one delivery that the pitch would have sailed behind a right-handed batter. Hellickson has great repetition overall, with a consistent release point that produces incredible pitch command. Warning to Wade Davis: objects in the rearview mirror may be closer than they appear.

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There was only one pitch from the windup before Britton surrendered a baserunner, so I had to lean on his pitches from the stretch. His balance is disrupted early in the delivery, as Britton leans forward during his stride. Despite the imbalance, Britton is able to find stable posture at release point, with just a slight head movement as the arm comes whipping through. The southpaw had trouble lining up his delivery, and timing issues resulted in an inconsistent release point, which might help to explain his Carolina League-leading 21 wild pitches in 2009.

Britton exhibits a closed stride, as he steps toward the left-handed batter’s box to create angle on opposing hitters. Many closed-stride pitchers appear to “throw across the body,” but most pros are able to get their shoulders square to home plate despite the stride direction. Britton was all over the place with his trunk rotation due to issues with timing and sequencing. Some pitches were under-rotated in the across-the-body style, while others were over-rotated and a few were close to square. Britton appears to have minimal hip-shoulder separation, with shoulders that fire almost immediately after the rotation of the hips. Like Hellickson, Britton uses a tuck of the mitt near release point, though the lefty is able to find a decent glove position on many pitches. The Hellickson comps end there, however, and Britton leaves much to be desired with his mechanical efficiency.

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Wheeler has a delivery that is mature beyond his years. He gains momentum from the start of the delivery through max leg lift and into foot strike, resulting in a very long stride that he directs straight at the plate. The posture is inconsistent, though several pitches flashed plus during his inning of work, resulting in a 50 grade that has plenty of room for improvement. He also takes advantage of spine hyperextension and flexion to add a bit of smoke to his fire, which can be seen by watching the shoulders as they “roll over” near release point. Max Scherzer is an extreme example of a pitcher that relies on flexion, though he has a more violent, forward jerking of the head as the arm goes through internal rotation.

Wheeler’s glove position varies from pitch to pitch based on the timing of his delivery, and the GS arm has a tendency to flail after release point. The 2009 first rounder has all of the ingredients for high 90’s gas, including the key component of hip-shoulder separation, thanks to a combination of delayed shoulder rotation and additional upper-body load. The raw components are impressive, but he has some work ahead with consistency and functional strength. The right approach and work ethic could lead to Wheeler becoming a Lincecum-lite for San Francisco, especially if Seabiscuit mentors the kid to mimic his stride and momentum.

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Minor has been one the more controversial pitchers in the minors. He followed Wheeler in the Futures Game as well as in the 2009 draft, going #7 overall to the Braves. The selection was widely panned as an overdraft, but Atlanta has proven their acumen when it comes to scouting and player development, and Minor has validated them yet again. In less than a full year of work, he has reached the International League while adding several ticks to his fastball, and currently ranks among the minors’ strikeout leaders.

You can count me among the doubters, despite the numbers, as Minor displayed some of the roughest mechanics among the pitchers in the Futures Game. The biggest red flag is balance, as Minor fails to demonstrate a stable foundation at any point in the delivery. His motion begins with a lean back toward 3^rd base at max leg lift, and the disruption continues with an exaggerated “rock n’ roll” of the shoulder axis (pointing glove to sky) that causes the head to trail behind the center of mass. After foot strike, the head moves left-to-right as the shoulders fire, tilting his spine and sacrificing posture to get some extra height at release point.

Minor uses a closed stride to create additional angle, similar to US teammate and fellow lefty Zach Britton, and relies on an aggressive hip-turn to accelerate his upper body rotation. He tucks the glove extremely early in the delivery, just after the hands separate, interfering with tightrope balance and later glove position during the pitching sequence. Minor could face an uphill battle at the highest level, because if MLB hitters wait him out it could result in walk rates that are too high for sustained success.

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Highly advanced for a teenager, Lyles has already made the jump to the upper levels of Houston’s system. His mechanics will turn heads, and the grades are even more impressive when age and experience are considered. The first thing that stands out is the stride length, as Lyles takes advantage of a high leg kick and great momentum to cover a lot of ground. His stuff plays up thanks to a deep release point that effectively shortens the time that hitters have to react.

The right-hander displays a distinct “drop-n-drive” delivery, lowering his center of mass from leg lift to foot strike, though his balance is otherwise solid in the early stages. The balance drop has a ripple effect after foot strike, as Lyles maintains a low, almost crouched position. The result is a very low release point that minimizes the downhill plane on his pitches. Lyles has a slightly open stride, which combines with well-delayed shoulder rotation to increase his torque. His timing and sequencing are tremendous, and he is relatively quick to the plate despite having a delivery that appears slow and “deliberate.” Lyles exemplifies what scout’s mean when they talk about “smooth” mechanics.

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The first five US pitchers in the Futures Game are all top prospects, considered the jewels of their respective systems. In general, these players have higher grades than draftees, due to the superior coaching, conditioning, and experience afforded by the minor leagues. The laws of natural selection are also at work, as many of the players in the Futures Game have already conquered several levels of the minors to prove their professional mettle.

Five more pitchers took the mound for the US team before the game was finished, and each will be covered in the next edition.