Posted by Paul Bugala on Thursday, April 1, 2010 at 6:00 am

Another trip to L.A., more Randy Newman (eventually)! It’s been an impressive 10 years under Mike Scioscia with 6 earning postseason appearances and one World Series ring. How will Scioscia’s 11th fare? BDD’s Paul Bugala shares his thoughts, this editor wishes he could stay *BEEP* *BEEP* *BEEP* “I must kill the queen!” Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for 2010, position breakdowns and more on this year’s Los Angeles Angels.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

‘09 Record: 97-65,  1^st in AL West
Pythagorean Record: 92-70 (+5 differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 78-84 (4th in AL West)

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2009 Review

In 2009, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim responded to the tragic death of rookie right-hander Nick Adenhart with another American League West title. Since 2002, the Angels have won six division titles and one World Series. In 2009, the only holdovers from the 2002 champions were John Lackey and Scot Shields. So, the Angles have been able to manage turnover and remain ahead of their division rivals with a mix of internally developed talent, such as Lackey and Garret Anderson, and premium free agents, such as Vladimir Guerrero and Torii Hunter.

Aside from Adenhart’s passing, the 2009 season stands out because the Angels broke a franchise record with 883 runs scored. That mark, second in the AL to the Yankees, is more impressive when you remember Mark Teixeira had just left Anaheim for the Bronx. The emergence of Kendry Morales played a big role in the Angels offense outburst, but one shouldn’t overlook the exceptional performances of 30-somethings Bobby Abreu and Torii Hunter.

2010 Outlook

The rest of the AL West is catching up to the Angels. A Mariners rotation led by Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez, the possible upside of Rich Harden and Vladimir Guerrero in Texas, and a young and threatening rotation in Oakland, could give the Angels a run for the division.

The Angels will have to prove they can deal with turnover again, as Lackey and Chone Figgins move on and homegrown talent in Brandon Wood and Jered Weaver try to fill the void. The Angels fortunes also appear to be dependent on the continued success of mature hitters, such as Abreu, Hunter and Hideki Matsui. Back-ups such as Reggie Willits and Peter Bourjos will not replace the offense of these elder statesmen should they go down.

It is unlikely that this year’s team will come close to the runs scored by the 2009 version, so the season may depend on run prevention and, in particular, the reliability of Ervin Santana and Scott Kazmir. The consistency of the bullpen, especially Brian Fuentes, will also be important. That Fuentes led the league in saves in 2009 shows the meaninglessness of that statistic.

2010 Team

Catcher

It’s too bad that Mike Napoli can’t get more starts. His story is a lesson that no matter how talented you are, you still have to get along with your boss. Napoli is the only AL catcher to hit 20 or more homeruns in the past two seasons, but his faults on defense mean that he’ll share catching duties with Jeff Mathis again. With Matsui on the team, Napoli is likely to see fewer plate appearances as a designated hitter, which means Mathis’ weak bat could be in the lineup more often. Napoli’s inability to fully recover from a right shoulder injury will create more opportunities for Mathis to drag down the Angels’ offensive production. Hank Conger has overcome injuries to become the Angels’ top prospect, but probably won’t be a major factor in the catching picture in 2010.

Infield

The trade-off between Chone Figgins and Brandon Wood is the biggest question in the Angels infield. Wood’s opportunity to start has come after almost 3,000 at bats in the minors, including parts of four seasons at Triple-A Salt Lake City. So, Wood has shorted his swing and will begin trying to quite any comparisons of his career to Casey Kotchman’s.

The rest of the infield is an enviable collection of emerging stars or solid regulars who could be together for a while. In his first full season, 2009, 1B Kendry Morales finished fifth in the AL MVP voting with a .924 OPS. 2B Howie Kendrick only managed 400 plate appearances in 2009, but that was an improvement over the past two years. Kendrick showed what he was capable of in the second half, as he posted a .919 OPS in 199 plate appearances. SS Erick Aybar shook the injury bug in 2009 and produced a .077 jump in his OPS over 2008. His next challenge will be replacing Chone Figgins in the Angels’ lead-off spot.

Outfield

LF Juan Rivera hopes to continue to be an upgrade over Garret Anderson in 2010 with improved patience, power and range. The wild card in the Angels outfield will be the amount of time DH Hideki Matsui is given in left field. Matsui would like to play in the outfield once or twice a week. His arthritic knees may have other plans.

The Angels bet on CF Torii Hunter’s longevity in 2007 when they signed him to a five year/$90 million contract. Hunter has been worth it when he is healthy, but that could change if he loses a step or can’t play regularly.

With the Angels DH spot taken by Matsui, fans in right field at the Big A can enjoy a good view of RF Bobby Abreu’s subpar defense. That wouldn’t be so bad if his power wasn’t receding. In 2009, Abreu did show the batting eye that also seemed to be waning in 2007 and 2008. So, he should provide some value as a number two hitter.

Designated Hitter

There’s good reason to expect Matsui will be a productive DH in 2010, if Mike Scioscia resists the temptation to test his knees in the outfield. If you add the that the Angels needed a left-handed bat and Matsui can more than hold his own against lefties and you can see the logic in his one-year, $6 million deal. As noted above, the only glaring downside of having Matsui as an almost full-time DH is that it potentially limits opportunities to keep Abreu’s and Napoli’s bats in the lineup.

Bench

Macier Izturis’ hot Spring Training shows he won’t give up playing time in the infield without a fight. What may hurt him is how well suited he is for the utility infielder role. A lot of Reggie Willits’ value is tied up in his legs. So, it’s troubling to see him struggle with hamstring issues after injuries have kept him from repeating his breakout 2007 season. Bobby Wilson and Terry Evans are out of Minor League options and must be kept on the 25-man roster or moved in a deal in order to avoid being exposed to the waiver wire. Both or either could see some limited time on the big league roster. It will be interesting to see if or when Conger takes some at bats away from the Napoli/Mathis catching tandem. That may not happen until September, but his development may dictate otherwise.

Starting Rotation

If everything breaks right, the Angels could have one of the strongest rotations in major league baseball. Jered Weaver’s fly-ball pitcher tendencies are well suited for the Big A and he should continue his evolution into a dependable top of the rotation starter. The day is coming when Ervin Santana has to capitalize on his ace potential before his inconsistency relegates him to a back of the rotation role. The Angels’ rotation is strong enough top to bottom that Santana doesn’t have to have another season like 2008, but it would be nice to see him reach that level again. Scott Kazmir seemed to regain his fantastic slider late last year and made dealing slugging prospect Sean Rodriguez palatable for the time being. The Angels don’t need Kazmir to become and ace again, which is a good thing because those days are probably over. Joe Saunders also goes into 2010 trying to recapture his past glory. Saunders’ off-speed pitches were especially bad last year, which is something to look for if he is going to put up an ERA below 5.00 in 2010. Dave Duncan helped resurrect Joel Pineiro’s career in 2009, but 2010 will tell if the improvements in his groundball rates and control are sustainable.

Bullpen

Brian Fuentes’ $9 million option for 2011 vests if he finishes 55 games. Fuentes has reached that mark three times in his career including the 57 he finished in 2009. Fuentes lead the AL in saves, but if his fastball velocity and strikeout rate continues to fall, Angels fans may be seeing a lot less of him. Jason Bulger throws his curveball a lot and for good reason. That may seem odd for someone with a mid-90s mph fastball, but his curveball is just that good. Fernando Rodney never expected to be the Angels’ closer, but his sore shins have given Bulger an opportunity to bump him out of the set-up role as well. Kevin Jepsen is also a setup candidate, but he may be on the outside looking in if Bulger continues throws his curveball for strikes and Rodney is healthy. Barring another injury, Scot Shields will be Scot Shields. Brian Stokes is a ROOGY at this point. Trevor Bell, Anthony Ortega, Sean O’Sullivan, and Matt Palmer are as fine a collection of spot starters as any group in major league baseball.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM…

Breakthrough Performance…

Jason Bulger

On a team with a lot of known entities including an overrated closer, Bulger’s potential to pick up saves – especially in the second half of the season – may be the most interesting development. A more conventional choice would be Peter Bourjos in the unlikely case that he got significant at bats as a lead-off hitter.

Ready to Rebound…

Scott Kazmir

A full year of Kazmir with a sharp slider would be very impressive. If he can stay healthy, Kazmir could be the factor that puts the Angels over the top in the AL West.

Ready to Disappoint…

Torii Hunter

I hate to say it, but Hunter plays the right way at a very demanding position. Last year’s success actually set him up for what seems likely to be a let down.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

The Angels make a splash at the trade deadline. Attendance hasn’t been bad despite the recession, so the organization could take on payroll, and age and inconsistency could undermine an otherwise solid roster.

Be Shocked If…

Hank Conger gets much of a look this year. The Angels are infamous for being slow with prospects and Mike Scioscia is likely to be particularly cautious with a catcher.

Rock Steady…

Mike Scioscia has guided the Angels to turnover and personal adversity to a 900-720 record and a World Series championship through ten seasons.

Achilles Heel…

Aging Angels in the Outfield

If Bobby Abreu and Torii Hunter fall off a cliff, who’s there to pick up the slack? Peter Bourjos is intriguing, but untested and Mike Trout is even further away. It’s almost unthinkable, but could the Angels regret dealing Gary Matthews Jr.?

In the Next Three Years…

Watch for the Angels to reap the benefits for compensation picks they have received following the departure of Teixeira, Lackey, Figgins, Francisco Rodriguez, and Jon Garland.

Goosebumps Moment…

If the Angels can win the AL West again, one has to begin wondering if Mike Scioscia isn’t in the middle of a Hall of Fame career. If he can keep up this success and voters factor in his playing career the case could be very compelling.

One more ‘09 loser to preview as Bill Baer brings you the Philadelphia Phillies tomorrow… then the Champs are here! While you wait, there’s 27 other losers to read about right here.

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