Posted by Zach Sanders on Friday, March 19, 2010 at 2:11 am

After an off-season filled with moves many deemed excellent, the sun is figuratively shining in Seattle. Optimism hasn’t been this high for a Mariners team since 2008. As ‘08 proved, in Seattle optimism and 75 cents will get you a cup of coffee (is 75 cents enough for a cup of coffee these days?). While the media (both “new” and “old”) and fans are optimistic, the same goes for the other three teams in the West. What does our Zach Sanders think? Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for 2010, position breakdowns and more on this year’s Seattle Mariners.

SEATTLE MARINERS

‘09 Record: 85-77, 3rd in AL West
Pythagorean Record: 75-87 (-10)
Current PECOTA Projection: 84-78 (1st in AL West)

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2009 Review

Coming off their founding of the “100 losses on a $100 million budget” club, the Mariners future looked bleak. New GM Jack Zduriencik was brought in to right the ship, and changed the culture of the team immediately. Zduriencik turned a 100 loss team into an above-.500 ball club, and brought hope back into Seattle’s large and intelligent baseball community.

2010 Outlook

With their spacious home park and terrific defense, the Mariners are in position to make a serious playoff run this year. The American League West is going to be a battle of attrition, as all four teams are very close in ability when healthy. With some terrific off-season additions and the continued development of players in the system, the Mariners will be an exciting team to follow in 2010, along with the rest of the AL West.

2010 Team

Catcher

The catcher’s spot is up for grabs this spring, with three main competitors. Last year’s part time starter, Rob Johnson, was hoping to win the job but an off-season filled with multiple surgeries has set him back. Prospect Adam Moore looks to be leading in the race for the starting job, but he is young and has only spent half a season in Triple-A. Veteran Josh Bard was picked up this off-season, and the switch hitter is likely to make the club out of spring training. However, he’ll be there just long enough to allow Johnson to get healthy.

Infield

The four infield starters are set, but where they will be playing is up in the air. First baseman Casey Kotchman and shortstop Jack Wilson’s jobs are not in question. Kotchman comes to the Mariners via a trade with the Red Sox, and will be called upon to play great defense and hit doubles into the gap. Wilson, acquired at the trade deadline last year, will also be called upon to play great defense, and anything he provides on offense is just gravy. Wilson didn’t do so well in his first half season with the Mariners, but that was due to an injury. With Wilson’s injury history,  that will probably pop up again at some point this season.

Third base and second base is where it gets tricky. Chone Figgins, signed this past off-season, played third base for the Angels last year, but is being considered for the second base gig. Jose Lopez, played second base for the Mariners last year, but is now being considered for the third base job. The theory is Lopez’s abilities better suit third base, and Figgins’ quickness and speed could be better used at second base. They have been trying their new positions during spring training , and have been met with mixed reviews. Even if the position swap doesn’t work, both players will be in the lineup at their old spots.

Outfield

Back for yet another year, Ichiro Suzuki will be patrolling right field. After missing time at the start of the year due to an ulcer, Ichiro picked up where he left off the year before. He may be getting older, and he may be slowing down a step on the basepaths, but he still plays an outstanding RF and knows how to work the stick at the plate. Franklin “Death to Flying Things” Gutierrez will be patrolling center field and snatching up every ball that comes his way. He had a career year at the plate, and some think he could still improve. I am not one of those people. However, he is still a good center fielder and fun to watch. Left field is more of a question mark. Milton Bradley will see some time, but a good chunk of the playing time will go to Ryan Langerhans or Michael Saunders.

Designated Hitter

I know a good chunk of fans want to see Ken Griffey Jr. get a bulk of the time at DH, but I believe it is more likely Bradley will see the most time. At the very least, Bradley will see the bulk of the time against left handed pitching.

Bench

Bard will probably start the year as the backup catcher, and give way to Johnson. Ryan Garko is the backup first baseman, and he will be starting against left handed pitching. Same goes for Eric Byrnes, who will be playing left field against southpaws. Jack Hannahan was in the lead for the utility infield spot, but an injury has slowed him down. If he doesn’t make the team, Matt Tuiasosopo will make the team instead.

Starting Rotation

Any rotation with Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee is going to be tough to beat twice every five days, but what about the rest of the crew? Erik Bedard will be the number three starter whenever he returns, but that could take until July. To start the year, Ryan Rowland-Smith is the #3 until then and looks to build off his 2009 season. Rowland-Smith is a poor man’s Andy Pettitte, which is okay since he is paid like one. He needs to work on his ground ball rate, but his use of a sinker on the outside half of the plate against righties was a good sign from last season. An outcast in Pittsburgh, Ian Snell will be Seattle’s number four starter. He needs some work, but since he has shown success at the major league level in the past he will be given more leash than others would. The fifth starter’s role will be given to either lefty Jason Vargas or the right handed Doug Fister. Fister doesn’t have great velocity or movement, but he “knows how to pitch” and wouldn’t be terrible in the five hole. Vargas has a good changeup that can make batters look silly, and is currently in the lead to win the rotation spot.

Bullpen

Due to the uncertainty surrounding the fifth starting spot, one of the bullpen spots is in question. But, most of the bullpen is set. David Aardsma will be closing again, with Mark Lowe and Brandon League acting as the set-up men. Shawn Kelley will be back in a middle relief role. If healthy, Sean White will take up another bullpen spot, but no one is planning on that to happen. The loser of the fifth starters race will likely pitch out of the bullpen, but Garrett Olson or Luke French could take that spot instead.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE SEATTLE MARINERS…

Breakthrough Performance…

Ryan Rowland-Smith

Most of the Mariners have already broken through (for the most part), but Rowland-Smith (aka “RRS”, or “Hyphen”) is poised for a nice year. He pitched well after being called up last year, and should put up good numbers thanks to the defense behind him.

Ready to Rebound…

Casey Kotchman

After being traded to Seattle, Kotchman is playing for his fourth team in three years. When he has gotten playing time, Kotchman has been a capable first baseman who gets a bad rap due to the stigma that you need power at first base. While he may not be the Mariners long-term solution, he will play well enough for fans to be happy with his performance.

Ready to Disappoint…

David Aardsma

Aardsma broke out in 2009, saving 38 games in 42 chances. However, a low BABIP and stifled HR/FB rate led to better numbers than Aardsma likely deserved. Safeco Field and the outstanding outfield defense will save him to some extent, but don’t expect such a high save conversion rate or low ERA.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Jose Lopez is traded. Trade talks surrounded Lopez all off-season, as his style of play doesn’t fit inside the plans of the current regime. His batting average and home runs make him look like a decent player, but his inability to walk leads to an OBP that barely cracks .300. His work ethic has also been called into question, and his pudgy physique doesn’t help his cause.

Be Shocked If…

Ken Griffey Jr. makes a real impact on the field. He could see more time at DH than I originally expected, but his bat is no longer spectacular. He can still get the job done against righties, and his clubhouse presence is nice to have, but his impact on games themselves is nothing more than questionable.

Rock Steady…

Ichiro Suzuki

While he is aging and his stolen bases will no longer be as bountiful, Ichiro is still a hitting machine. His quick first step out of the box hasn’t changed, and his ability to place the ball where he wants it is still evident. Oh yeah, and he’s pretty good at that defense thing, too.

Achilles Heel…

The Offense

Look at the Mariners lineup. Do any of their players scare you? While the Mariners will be able to score runs based on their speed and ability to shoot balls into the gap, they may not have what it takes to make up for a bad pitching performance like other teams in the division can.

In the Next Three Years…

The Mariners will win the division. Seeing that they haven’t won a division title since their magical 116-win season in 2001, this would be a welcome sight. The team is in good hands, and the current front office seems to know what it takes to win.

Goosebumps Moment…

On the team’s home opener, when Ichiro, Felix and Griffey are introduced, Safeco will be rocking. While Seattle is often called a football town, Mariners fans are more than happy to support their team.

For the third day in a row, BDD will recap an American League team as Bill Ferris takes on the Detroit Tigers. How will the club respond to their 2009 collapse? Log in tomorrow for BDD’s 18th team preview.

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