Posted by Zach Sanders on Thursday, March 18, 2010 at 3:24 am

Don’t hate the messenger Rays’ fans: While there was a lot of whining about being stuck in baseball’s toughest division, Tampa Bay played down to the rest of the weaker American League, posting a 31-41 record against the AL Central and AL West. In the elite division in baseball, that’s just not going to get it done. Like most sequels to Hollywood stories, the ‘09 Rays were a disappointment to their World Series run. Does Zach Sanders think “Cinderella Rays III” will be a hit? Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for 2010, position breakdowns and more on this year’s Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays

‘09 Record: 84-78 , 3rd in AL East
Pythagorean Record: 86-76 W-L (+2)
Current PECOTA Projection: 91-71 (2nd in AL East)

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2009 Review

Another year, another off-season of Rays’ fans calling for realignment. After a trip to the World Series in 2008, the Rays fell back to Earth, but showed signs of being a perennial playoff contender. Even a breakout season from Ben Zobrist and another great year from Evan Longoria couldn’t carry the Rays into the playoffs.

2010 Outlook

With another year of maturity for a young starting staff and lineup, the Rays will make some noise in 2010. The acquisition of Rafael Soriano to help lock down the lead late in games should prove valuable, as will the presence of another bat in the lineup in catcher Kelly Shoppach. The Rays will need David Price, Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis to mature quickly, but that isn’t unreasonable to expect.

2010 Team

Catcher

Acquired from the Cleveland Indians, Kelly Shoppach is the man behind the plate this year. Shoppach has shown great power in the past, hitting 22 HR with a 22.1% HR/FB rate in 2008, but slowed down in 2009. He will never hit for a great average, but he has enough power and a good enough walk rate to be a slightly above average hitter. Dioner Navarro will be back and should see enough playing time to make him happy. After a great 2008 campaign, Navarro had his struggles in 2009 due to his fluky BABIP. Although his walk rate dropped three percent from 2008 to 2009, he should still be a decent catcher, and his ability to hit from both sides of the plate is fantastic for a backup.

Infield

After facing injuries in the latter part of 2009, Carlos Pena is healthy and ready to go for a 2010 season that happens to be the end of his contract. Pena brings power and patience from the left side of the plate, along with above average defense. Perennial MVP candidate Evan Longoria and his ridiculous contract will be manning third. Longoria’s mix of power, patience and average make him a fantasy owners dream, but his defense is what makes him a true value. Longoria is a ~1.5-2 win player with his glove alone, something very few players can put on their resume. Backing up Pena and Longoria on the corners will be newly acquired Hank Blalock, who is coming off a poor showing (like most, due to BABIP) with the Texas Rangers. Blalock isn’t a good fielder at first, but playing at third is a straight up risk.

Up the middle, Jason Bartlett looks to sustain his 2009 levels that were, well, quite unsustainable. Bartlett hit .320/.389/.490 and stole 30 bases last year, all with a BABIP of .364. While that is insanely high for most, Bartlett’s speed makes that number seem less ridiculous. While he won’t repeat 2009, Barty can still be looked to for a .280 average, 25 steals, and above average defense, and there is nothing wrong with that. Second base is a bit more clouded in St. Petersburg, with a couple of players who could see major time. Last year’s breakout stud, Ben Zobrist, and a newly acquired prospect, Sean Rodriguez, are both going to see time at second, but the real question is “how much?” Zobrist is a walks machine and can fill the super-utility role without breaking a sweat. Rodriguez, who has shown impressive power in the high-minors, can also play in the corner outfield spots.

Outfield

Left field and center field are locked up by two speed demons, with B.J. Upton covering the middle of the grass and Carl Crawford in left. Crawford has been the subject of extension and possible trade talks, so he will have extra incentive to bust his hump for the Rays this year. Upton needs to respond after a poor showing at the plate in 2009. However, his outstanding play in the field will always keep his value high. Right field, like second base, is a bit of a mess. The Rays let Gabe Gross depart to Oakland, opening up what seemed to be a Matt Joyce/Gabe Kapler platoon in right. For whatever reason, the Rays are toying with starting Zobrist in right on most days, and letting Rodriguez try his hand at the second base job. I’m not here to say one is better than the other, but whatever decision they make is going to have a big effect on their bench structure.

Designated Hitter

Pat Burrell and Blalock will both get time at DH, and a full blown platoon could be in effect if Blalock plays well and remains healthy.

Bench

Willy Aybar, when healthy, will be the primary backup at third base, and may even beat out Blalock for time at first. With the mess at second base and right field, the Rays could either have a second baseman and an outfielder on the bench, or two outfielders. Reid Brignac is also attempting to make the team as a backup infielder, and his glove (notice a pattern, yet?) will be what gets him the job.

Starting Rotation

Even after the Scott Kazmir trade, the Rays still have a great young rotation. James Shields and Matt Garza may not be household names, but they know what they are doing on the mound. David Price needs to make the next step if the team is going to go to the playoffs, but I believe that can be done. Jeff Niemann and rookie Wade Davis are great arms to have at the back of the rotation due to their potential as their careers progress. None of these guys are particularly exciting, but are all good enough to get the job done.

Bullpen

Last year, the Rays didn’t have a big time closer, and J.P. Howell filled the role nicely. Now, the Rays will call on Rafael Soriano to be the shutdown closer he was in Atlanta. If he can pitch up to his ability, the rest of the bullpen is great for the roles they now occupy. With Grant Balfour, Howell, and Soriano, the Rays are in good hands when their starters leave with a lead.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE TAMPA BAY RAYS…

Breakthrough Performance…

Wade Davis

Following in Niemann’s footsteps, Davis will have a great rookie campaign and should be the leading contender for ROY from the word “go.”

Ready to Rebound…

B.J. Upton

The power he showed in 2007 may never return, but his offense was better than he showed in 2009. He will be dropped down in the order this year, so he’ll have to show what he’s got if he wants to regain the respect for his offensive game.

Ready to Disappoint…

Jason Bartlett

As mentioned earlier, Bartlett’s 2009 was impressive but not repeatable. His defense will be better in 2010, so his “real life” value won’t be too far off what it was last year, but the casual fan and fantasy owners will be disappointed.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

The Rays get screwed out of a playoff spot yet again. The Rays are good enough to win the West or Central this year, but out of sheer dumb luck and geography they are stuck behind the Yankees and Red Sox. If the Rays put together another 84-win season and miss out of the playoffs, expect those cries for realignment to grow even louder.

Be Shocked If…

Pena or Crawford isn’t dealt at the deadline. The Rays probably won’t be able to pay both of their bigger name players in free agency, and may not even be able (or willing) to pay one. My money is on Pena getting traded, as they have a built-in replacement for him in Blalock.

Rock Steady…

Evan Longoria

He may have only been in the bigs two years, but he has established himself as one of the games top talents, and certainly it’s biggest value. His defense is astounding (it is even better when you’ve seen him from only 10 rows up, as I have), and his numbers last year suggested he should be a bigger name in the MVP discussions.

Achilles Heel…

Division

Sure, it’s beating the crap out of a dead horse, but it’s true. This team is really good and it’s hard to poke holes in it.

In the Next Three Years…

The Rays will be back in the playoffs. With the front office and farm system this team has in place, they will find a way to get back to the postseason and make some noise.

Goosebumps Moment…

I’ve never been to a Rays home game, but I imagine the stadium will be going crazy when the Rays are playing the Red Sox and Yankees late in the year, battling for a playoff spot. Can they do it? That remains to be seen.

Zach’s back-to-back previews continue tomorrow with the Mariners as our trek down the preview back 9 is underway. With the Rays in the book, we have more teams previewed than teams remaining. Here are the ones on the site so far:

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