Posted by Rob McQuown on Wednesday, March 17, 2010 at 7:43 pm

In working on some stuff for the site, I ran into a link to a top-50 position players list I’d published 2 years ago: link. There are many ways to dissect something like this, and I think I can deservedly pat myself on the back for ranking Desmond Jennings the 7th-best position player prospect in baseball. But I had some clunkers, as well – such is the nature of prospecting, even for hitting – which is much easier to project than pitching.

Since Baseball America has all their historical top-100 lists available for free, I thought it would be interesting to compare the guys who made one or the other of their top 100 list and my top 50 position players list. Without further ado:

Baseball America pre-2008 Top 100 Prospects (excerpt):

13. Jacoby Ellsbury of, Red Sox
14. Andrew McCutchen of, Pirates
19. Elvis Andrus ss, Rangers
20. Fernando Martinez of, Mets
33. Angel Villalona 3b/1b, Giants
37. Jose Tabata of, Yankees
43. Josh Vitters 3b, Cubs
44. Joey Votto 1b, Reds
53. J.R. Towles c, Astros
55. Chin-Lung Hu ss, Dodgers
62. Carlos Triunfel ss, Mariners
70. Brandon Jones of, Braves
74. Dexter Fowler of, Rockies
76. Adrian Cardenas 2b, Phillies
80. Taylor Teagarden c, Rangers
85. Bryan Anderson c, Cardinals
87. Beau Mills 3b/1b, Indians
91. Nolan Reimold of, Orioles
92. Gorkys Hernandez of, Braves
95. Hector Gomez ss, Rockies
96. Ryan Kalish of, Red Sox
100. Drew Stubbs of, Reds
(also 30. Kosuke Fukudome of, Cubs – I was evaluating minor-leaguers only)

Rob’s Top 50 Position Player Prospects, pre-2008 (excerpt):
(all comments are from 2008)

9. Nick Weglarz, rf, Cle – Big power source, will have to overcome K’s, but he should. Geoff Jenkins downside with the bat, and that’s pretty good.
10. Josh Reddick, rf, Bos – What does this guy need to do to get respect? MLP shows .298/.359/.520, and he had 19 outfield kills in 2007. Garrett Anderson with a cannon arm?
12. Wladimir Balentien, of, Sea – Sometimes, the big K guys can cut down their swings without losing pop. If 2007 is any indication, Balentien projects as a .281/.368/.532 slugger in his prime, though that’s in a neutral park and Safeco will dampen that power quite a bit.. Not quite Adam Jones, but still plenty good.
13. Jared Goedert, 3b, Cle – Another Indians “stealth” prospect, much of Goedert’s value is with his glove, though he should hit enough to be a #5 hitter. Andy Marte better step up his game if he wants a career in Cleveland.
21. Josh Donaldson, c, ChN
22. Chris Carter (N/R) – 1b – Oak
24. Ryan Royster, of, TB
28. Johnny Whittleman, 1b, Tex
29. Kyle Blanks, 1b, SD
30. Reid Fronk, of, TB
32. Matt Sweeney, 1b, LAA (#95 in 2007)
35. Chris Nelson, ss, Col – He’s back! This rating is based on staying at shortstop, which obviously would need to involve a trade.
37. Corey Brown, cf, Oak
39. Eric Campbell, 3b, Atl (#20 in 2007)
40. Eric Duncan, 1b, NYA (#38 in 2007)
41. Chris Pettit, of, LAA (#110 in 2007, but unlisted)
42. Pablo Sandoval, c, SF
43. Tony Thomas, 2b, ChN
46. Nick Evans, 1b, NYN (#105 in 2007, but unlisted)
47. Logan Morrison, 1b, Fla
49. Tyler Flowers, c?, Atl
50. Chad Tracy, c?, Tex – BA shows him as the top LF prospect in the Texas system. A better hitter than the surface stats suggest.

It’s sort of an interesting mixed bag. Obviously, Ellsbury and Andrus are significant misses, but figuring out fielding ability for minor-leaguers is very difficult. To note, Colby Rasmus just missed the “worst fielding centerfielders” list Jeff Sackman prepared after the 2006 season at baseballanalysts.com. And now, he’s regarded as being a very good defender. I think when I prepared this list, I was still bitter about being burned after buying into the hype on Yuniesky Betancourt’s supposedly superb fielding skills. When a guy is compared to Rey Ordonez on defense and wins “Defensive Player of the Year” in two different minor leagues… in the same year… it’s hard to envision such a guy being 20 runs worse (per season) than an average MLB shortstop on defense.

One player I did bump up for his defense was Jared Goedert, though reports were somewhat conflicting on that. Mostly, I figured that if a guy could hit .364/.475/.715 for 205 PA in his first exposure to full-season baseball, he was going to be a hitter, whether at second base, third base, or even if he got moved to the outfield. Well, high-A ball proved to be much more difficult for him, and between injuries and the advanced players in AA, he’s turned into a suspect hitter and has also moved back to third base.

Anyway, power projects, so the guys I rated more highly had a distinct power-hitting flavor. Some have failed to develop, like Goedert and Royster and Whittleman, while others have remained essentially on-track (Pettit, Logan Morrison), and others – Carter, Flowers, Blanks for example – have asserted themselves as future top-notch power hitters. Pablo “Big Panda” Sandoval is an interesting case. I honestly hadn’t remembered ranking him as a top-100 prospect, coming off a .287/.312/.476 in the California League. But he managed 49 extra base hits in that stint, with just 52 strikeouts (423 PA). This sort of combination of hitting the ball hard and avoiding strikeouts is one of the best indicators of future growth, and his MLP came out quite well despite the tepid stats and dearth of walks.