Posted by Michael Street on Tuesday, March 16, 2010 at 5:28 am

Greetings from your friendly editor. Funny story about the Milwaukee Brewers. When I was a kid, my cousin and I realized the Brewers “glove” logo was actually an M and a B. We were amazed. What’s that have to do with this preview? Well, nothing. Let’s hand this thing over to Michael Street… Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for 2010, position breakdowns and more on this year’s Milwaukee Brewers.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

‘09 Record: 80-82, 3rd in NL Central
Pythagorean Record: 78-84 W-L (+2)
Current PECOTA Projection: 77-85 (Tied 3rd in NL Central)

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2009 Review

On July 1, the first-place Crew seemed ready to give Milwaukee their first back-to-back playoff appearances since the 1981-2 teams that included Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, Cecil Cooper, Pete Vuckovich, and Rollie Fingers. After all, this version of the Brewers had Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Yovani Gallardo, and Trevor Hoffman.

If you’re sensing a few missing pieces in the newer team, you’re right. The only other Brewer to register an OPS over .800 in at least 100 games was rookie Casey McGehee, who hit .310/.360/.499 in 394 PAs. Rickie Weeks went down — again — to a wrist injury, Corey Hart disappointed — again — with a .260/.335/.418 line and a month lost to appendicitis, while J.J. Hardy was so awful that he found himself back — again — in AAA.

Hoffman’s 1.83 ERA and 0.91 WHIP were awesome, but he had only 37 saves, due to his strained ribcage and the failure of the starters to deliver the bullpen a lead. Gallardo’s 3.73 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 34.7 VORP led the rotation, but no other starter had a positive VORP. Milwaukee’s rotation was the worst in MLB in ERA (5.37) and SNLVAR (8.0), thanks to awful seasons from Braden Looper (5.22 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, -5.6 VORP), Manny Parra (6.36 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, -23.9 VORP), and Dave Bush (6.38 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, -14.8 VORP). The stinky cherry on this crap sundae was Jeff Suppan, paid $12.75M to deliver his third straight year of declining numbers (5.29 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, -8.2 VORP).

In the end, Milwaukee placed third in the NL and 9^th in MLB in scoring, but ranked second-worst in the NL and 5^th worst in MLB in run prevention. This combination dropped them from the to third in the NL Central, 11.0 games behind the Cardinals and 12.0 games behind Wild Card Colorado. Milwaukee would have to wait another year to return to the playoffs.

2010 Outlook

The core of the 2009 team returns, with changes in the middle of the defense and the starting rotation. New pitching coach Rick Peterson brings a biomechanical approach that analyzes deliveries to reduce injuries and improve performance. The rotation has two new arms, two others ready to take a step forward, while the offense features a new centerfielder, a new catcher, and one of the best young defensive shortstops in baseball.

If the Crew can add a healthy, productive starting rotation to a solid bullpen, while melding the new parts of their offense with the tried-and-true parts, they’ll easily be contenders. Whether that’s enough to climb to the top of the difficult — and improving — NL Central is the question all Crew fans want to know. Even if the answer is to again wait ‘til next year, this team should keep putting fannies in the seats and hope in the hearts of Milwaukee fans everywhere.

2010 Team

Catcher

The Brewers replaced the aging and unproductive Jason Kendall, who caught 285 games in the past two seasons, with the aging but productive Gregg Zaun, who caught 286 games in the past three seasons. That durability will be a concern, as well as Zaun’s game-calling ability, but his offensive skills should more than compensate, as his OPS was 130 points higher than Kendall’s in 2009.

Milwaukee has young catchers galore behind him: prospects Angel Salome and Jonathan Lucroy are nearly ready, competing with waiver-claim George Kottaras who is also jockeying to split time with Zaun. Unless the Crew carries three catchers, Salome should emerge as the primary backup; Milwaukee doesn’t want to send both him and Lucroy back to AAA for further development.

Infield

The infield faces plenty of tests in 2010. With J.J. Hardy gone, Alcides Escobar will get to show that he’s the best Venezuelan shortstop since Omar Vizquel. More than just a flashy glove, Escobar brings an 84% contact rate and speed to the plate, which will eventually make him their lead-off hitter. Until that happens, Rickie Weeks will hit first, trying to finally realize his power-speed promise while recovering from his second wrist surgery. If Casey McGehee can’t prove that his 2009 season was legit, prized prospect Mat Gamel will get to prove he can overcome the deficits of both his glove at third base and a 22% minor-league strikeout rate that ballooned to 37% in MLB. Prince Fielder remains the anchor at first, as shown by a .299./412/.602 line in 2009 that included 141 RBIs, best in baseball, and 46 HRs, second only to Albert Pujols.

Outfield

Ryan Braun, the team’s outfield anchor, led the NL in hits in 2009, en route to a .320/.386/.551 season in which he dropped his K% and raised his BB% for the third straight season. Carlos Gomez should equal or surpass Mike Cameron’s declining defense in center field, but he can’t fill Cammy’s power-hitting shoes and has been working on leveraging his speed by hitting ground balls. Corey Hart, a secondary player who must produce in right field for Milwaukee to contend, showed Brewers fans more glimpses of his hitting abilities before an appendectomy effectively ended his 2009 season.

Bench

Jody Gerut and Jim Edmonds are battling for the utility outfield slot, where the versatile Joe Inglett could also stick; Gerut needs to rebound from a subpar 2009 to make carrying his glove worthwhile. Craig Counsell remains one of the most valuable bench players in baseball, and should be joined by Gamel, whose potent bat will force Macha to find ways to get him in the field or send him to AAA for more consistent playing time.

Starting Rotation

Milwaukee’s starting five will be more impressive and lefty-heavy after off-season retooling. LHP Randy Wolf turned his best (and healthiest) season in years into a two-year deal and will follow RHP Yovani Gallardo in the rotation. They provide 1-2 strikeout punch, though there’s still a sharp drop-off to the dependably healthy but woefully average LHP Doug Davis and RHP Jeff Suppan, who would consider a Davis-like season a huge accomplishment. Suppan could lose his rotation spot if both Dave Bush and Manny Parra shine, though they’re more likely to duke it out for the #5 spot.

Bullpen

The bullpen should be an area of stability for Milwaukee in 2010. Closer Trevor Hoffman will be solid, even if repeating 2009’s ratios might be a stretch. Sprinting out to the mound made Todd Coffey a fan favorite, but he could share set-up duties — or lose them entirely — to newcomer and LaTroy Hawkins; either could replace Hoffman if he gets hurt. Other standouts include swingman Claudio Vargas and lefty specialist Mitch Stetter, who retired an MLB-record 15 straight batters via strikeout in 2009.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE MILWAUKEE BREWERS…

Breakthrough Performance…

Dave Bush

Bush started to put things together in 2009 before a line drive to his forearm reversed all his gains. That injury’s gone, he’s looked very good in Spring Training, and should emerge as a very good back-of-the-rotation hurler in 2010.

Ready to Rebound…

Rickie Weeks

Last year’s hot start was more luck than skill, but he knows how to come back from wrist injuries, and now wants to prove himself more than ever.

Ready to Disappoint…

Gregg Zaun

38 years old and playing in the NL for the first time since 2003, he won’t be as bad as Jason Kendall, but he’s still not the reliable backstop Milwaukee needs.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Ken Macha bats the pitcher eighth, with either Escobar or Gomez batting ninth.

Be Shocked If…

Jeff Suppan registers an ERA below 4.50 or a WHIP under 1.50, something he’s never done in his three-year Milwaukee tenure.

Rock Steady…

Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder

They remain essential to the team’s success, personifying the youthful exuberance and consistent production that could lead Milwaukee to the Promised Land of the Postseason.

Achilles Heel…

Righty/Lefty Balance

Among rotation arms, Davis, Wolf, Bush, and Parra are all lefties, while Angel Salome is the only likely RHB on the bench. On the other hand, four of the top five projected hitters—Weeks, McGehee, Braun, and Hart—are all righties. This will reduce Macha’s options in building a roster and lineup and will make the starters vulnerable to righty-heavy teams.

In the Next Three Years…

2012 looms as the free-agency year for Fielder, Hart, and Weeks; the latter two need to show that they can remain productive and healthy (respectively) to earn their keep, while Fielder clearly has. Whether there’s enough money in the piggy bank for Fielder at the end of this season remains to be seen. If they can lock up Fielder along with a productive Weeks and Hart, they need only bolster their pitching rotation further to ensure competitiveness in the future.

Making Sausage of Opposing Catchers…

The sausage race path takes it past the visitor’s dugouts, and at least two catchers (the Rockies’ Paul Phillips and the Reds’ Jason LaRue) have nearly been run down as they tried to make their way onto the field. Next time they ought to aim for someone who might actually do some damage to the Brewers.

We always root for Frankie Furter here at BDD. It’s unlikely if you are looking forward to tomorrow’s preview that you root for anything to do with the Brew Crew, though, since we’ll explore the Chicago Cubs. Winless in Wrigleyville was the theme again in ‘09 and many expect that to continue when it comes to championships and Chicago in ‘10. Rob McQuown weighs in with his preview of the Cubs on Tuesday… until then, check out our other previews:

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