Posted by Rob McQuown on Sunday, March 14, 2010 at 11:55 pm

By now “Yes we can!” is so played out that even using it to introduce the President’s favorite baseball team is lame. It’s difficult to keep a White Sox intro short, though. There’s the obligatory mention of Ozzie Guillen’s Twitter, the South Side, and, for the nostalgic, throw in a Black Sox reference, too. Were the changes made in Chicago something fans can believe in (sorry!)? We’ll let BDD’s Rob McQuown cover that. Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for 2010, position breakdowns and more on this year’s Chicago White Sox.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

‘09 Record: 79-83, 3rd in AL Central
Pythagorean Record: 80-82 (-1 Differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 84-78 (Tied 1st, AL Central)
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2009 Review

“I not only have to answer to (chairman) Jerry Reinsdorf and our fans,” White Sox general manager Kenny Williams says, “but answer to the president of the United States. If we don’t win, I know I’m going to have him on (me), too.” (USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2009-04-05-obama-white-sox_N.htm) Williams also pronounced the Yankees as the AL’s best team in January (2009), though he received Internet-wide razzing for quotes about being disappointed in September as the Sox had fallen out of the race.

Remembering the glory of the 2005 season, it was natural for all Soxdom, from The President to the team’s GM to the fans who want more players that can bunt, to expect a better outcome based on the way the plot had evolved by August. After beating the Angels for the 2nd straight time on August 5, Chicago was just 1 measly game out of first place in the weak Central Division, had just acquired one of the NL’s best pitchers (Peavy), and saw a solution to their void in center field in the form of Alexis Rios. Further, the climax of the story seemed to be forthcoming, as the immediate schedule included 1 more against Los Angeles and then 15 straight against the worst teams in the AL.

Instead of the expected “feel good” ending, the script included a shocking twist as the Sox went 7-9 in those 16 games before entering a gauntlet of 9 straight road games against New York, Boston, and Minnesota. Worse, Peavy’s return date was pushed back by a fluky injury in a minor-league game, and it was tempting to “Blame it on Rios,” as the tantalizingly athletic outfielder made his hitting struggles in Toronto look like a hot streak compared to his ineptitude on the South Side. By the end, Williams faced reality, voiced his disappointment, and sent Thome and Contreras to contenders in what amounted to “thank you for your services” trades to two classy ex-White Sox. As such, thoughts had already turned to 2010 even while the team was theoretically in the race in mid-September.

2010 Outlook

Peavy. Buehrle. Danks. Floyd. Hudson. Garcia.  While history isn’t likely to compare this rotation to Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz-Avery anytime soon, the Sox already had a trio of excellent 120 ERA+ types, added Cy Young winner Peavy and talented youngster Hudson.  If healthy, the 2010 White Sox arguably have the game’s best rotation. The average fans may not be able to distinguish it as such, given the ballpark and the expected offensive struggles, but opposing managers will be well aware of the relentless nature of this strong and deep rotation. The starters will be well-supported by a solid and deep bullpen again in 2010, so the overall pitching should be fantastic.

Offensively and defensively, the team is founded on some moves which seem, at times, to be more like wishcasting than solid GM strategy, but Kenny Williams has certainly earned the benefit of the doubt. The mantra has been more “small ball” and defense this season, but the two top steals guys are gone from 2009, and lots of players are learning (or re-acquainting themselves with) new positions, so the defensive benefit is questionable.  Still, Juan Pierre, despite his noodle arm, fits the “new mold” to a “T” as he’s a rangy outfielder who embodies the “small ball” approach to the game.

The lineup will be expected to function without a high-OBP leadoff hitter, with Pierre’s ability to create havoc on the basepaths tempering this shortcoming somewhat. He’s posted a .334 OBP since 2005, which amounts to 20 fewer official times on base(*) than a .360 OBP would have. He won’t make up those 20 times on base with his legs, but it’s not like the White Sox have any better options. The rest of the lineup is somewhat indistinguishable and Ozzie is likely to shuffle them often, though high-injury-risk Carlos Quentin should be the primary power source.

(*) OBP doesn’t include times reached on errors, and Pierre can be expected to add a couple more of these over a typical player in a season.

Viewers of “The Club” on MLB Network will get to experience Ozzie’s colorful personality as he deals with these changes and challenges of a season which became more promising after the injury to Joe Nathan of the rival Twins. Expect Kenny Williams to trade to address needs if the team is still contending in July.

Great pitching will keep the team in a lot of games, so things like “clutch hitting” and “one run tactics” that make Sabermetricians groan will have a lot more sway on the team’s final win total than on a typical team. The most likely scenario sees the team just above the .500 mark on July 31, and, if the Twins haven’t run away with the division, Williams will make moves to address things which aren’t working.

2010 Team

Catcher

A.J. Pierzynski had his best offensive season since he was 26 and called the Metrodome “home”. Yet he wasn’t happy about failing to drive in 50 runs. He’s likely to be even less happy if Tyler Flowers is able to stay at catcher, since A.J.’s contract is up after the season, and he’ll be sending out resumes. Ramon Castro remains a starting-caliber catcher relegated to backup duty, though he’s been shown to break down if given too much playing time.

Infield

What fun would there be on the South Side without the annual game of “Musical Infielders?”  In 2009, Alexei Ramirez grabbed the shortstop chair and was surprisingly good on defense despite taking 4 years off from the position. He’s a league-average offensive player, with just enough batting average and power and speed to offset the low walk totals. His fielding percentage was league-average and should improve with experience.

Chris Getz lost his seat and was demoted to Kansas City. Superstar-to-be Gordon Beckham takes over at second base and will do his best to continue eliciting Ryne Sandberg comparisons. His ability to adapt at the plate allows him to bring the complete array of hitting skills with a consistency that usually takes years to develop. On defense, he’s an unknown, but the scouting reports indicate that while his range will be sub-par, he should quickly become a steady, reliable defender at the Keystone.

Mark Teahen hit .290/.357/.517, slamming 46 extra-base hits and stealing 10 bases in 393 AB. He was easily the Royals best hitter, and was a proud member of the 2002 “Moneyball” draft class from Oakland. Unfortunately for Teahen,  that was four years ago. Since then, he’s bounced around the diamond, and seemingly left part of his bat at each stop. According to fangraphs.com, Teahen was the 11th-worst “qualified” position player in all MLB in 2009, producing a total of $1.2 million for the Royals; and 2008 had been even worse at -$300,000. Hit charts indicate that US Cellular field will help in 2010, though he’s more of a doubles hitter than home run threat.

If the rest of the infield is moving to the music, first baseman Paul Konerko is the D.J. — always in the same place and keeping the hits coming. He’s nearing the end, but should be good for one more show at least.

Outfield

Carlos Quentin was an MVP contender in 2008 before he injured himself. His 2009 season was all but washed out due to plantar fasciatis. He’ll be shifting to right field this year, and his unstable health could end up making or breaking the Sox season, as he and Beckham are the only two above-average (for their position) hitters  on the team.

Thus ends the similarities between the ‘09 and ‘10 White Sox outfields.

The Sox eliminated UZR sinkhole Jermaine Dye, the 6th-least-valuable regular position player in MLB last year (per WAR), but are facing a full season from the #7 guy on that list, Alexis Rios. Juan Pierre got out of UZR hell by shifting to left field, but hasn’t been anyone’s idea of a good starting position player for years. And Andruw Jones hit .165/.292/.298 from July 9 through the end of 2009. Mark Kotsay is the other new face, and will back up in left and right when he’s not DH’ing.

At least the again-mobile Jones looks impressive in spring training, dredging up memories of the Hall-bound Braves slugger and reminding people that, at 33, he could still have several good seasons. Likewise, Rios appears to be motivated to shake off his horrendous performance from last year. Pierre, Rios, and Quentin will play almost every inning (health permitting), so any playing time Jones earns will come at the expense of Kotsay.

Designated Hitter

In Chicago, much has been made of the team’s lack of a full-time DH, especially when Jim Thome was allowed to sign with “The Enemy”. Ozzie Guillen has made a career of doing whacky things, both on the field and during interviews. But he’s not going to follow through with his plans to use Omar Vizquel at DH. Not going to happen. The team has wisely left a spot open at the major league level (this vacancy could be called “Mark Kotsay” for short), so that when Tyler Flowers has finished subduing the minor leagues, he won’t be blocked.

Bench

Kotsay will back up Konerko when he’s not DH-ing or playing the outfield, Jayson Nix will backup Beckham and should play third against some tough left lefties. Ageless wonder Omar Vizquel can amazingly still play the field like a much younger man, and hits better than most pitchers.

Starting Rotation

The White Sox may have the best rotation among all 30 teams. Some random facts: Jake Peavy has struck out 9.0 batters/9 innings. He’s allowed 2.9 walks/9 innings. He’s 4th in ERA among active starting pitchers with 1000 or more innings (Pedro Martinez 2.93, Johan Santana 3.12, Roy Oswalt 3.23, and Peavy 3.26). He’s won a Cy Young Award. He has twice led the league in strikeouts. He has twice led the league in ERA. He has led the league in WHIP. He has led the league in Wins. His career tERA (fangraphs.com) is 3.36. His one weakness is that he doesn’t pay much attention to baserunners, a problem which will be magnified with Pierzynski catching.

The incumbants aren’t bad, either. Mark Buehrle has thrown 2 no-hitters, one being a perfect game. He’s the best pitcher in baseball at suppressing the running game, allowing just 40 steals in his career, while racking up 125 outs despite playing for years with popgun-armed A.J. Pierzynski. He’s 10th among all (1000+ IP) active starting pitchers in ERA+, besting even CC Sabathia (11th) and new teammate Peavy (12th). He’s pitched 200+ innings in all of his 10 full seasons in the majors, as well, twice leading the league in innings pitched and twice in games started. John Danks and Gavin Floyd don’t have the resumes yet, but Danks has been smart to accept tutelage from Buehrle, enabling him to post an amazing two-year ERA+ score of 130 since coming to Chicago. While Floyd is clearly 4th-best on this staff, he’d arguably be the ace on some teams. His ERA+ has been 117 the past two years.

Freddy Garcia has a 4.08 career ERA and a 111 ERA+, though he’s been essentially league-average (102 ERA+) after starting his career with 3 very good seasons in 1999-2001. If he can even approach “average”, the Sox won’t mind. He’s only keeping a spot warm for the most meteoric pitcher of 2009 — Daniel Hudson — whose quick ascent enabled him to pitch at five different levels in 2009. Hudson was expected to be a first-round pick out of Old Dominion, but his senior year saw a decrease in velocity and effectiveness, and the Sox were able to draft a front-of-the-rotation talent in the 5th round in 2008.

Bullpen

Scott Linebrink has been a colossal bust, really, after several good years pitching in Petco. Kenny Williams isn’t one to live in the past, and brought in former M’s closer J.J. Putz to set up Bobby Jenks, along with one of the game’s best lefties in Matt Thornton. Linebrink is still around, as is Tony Pena, who effectively moves up into the spot Dotel had last year. The most interesting story of the spring is Sergio Santos, who is showing signs of having harnessed his monster fastball and could make the team as the final reliever since he’s out of options. Considering that he was a shortstop until a year ago, his growth as a pitcher borders on miraculous.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE CHICAGO WHITE SOX…

Breakthrough Performance…

Ozzie Guillen

Starring in “The Club”, and socially networking with Twitter, 2010 is essentially Ozzie’s “audition tape”.  Anyone who’s heard Ozzie Guillen speak realizes that it’s only a matter of time before he says something which gets him banned from managing baseball games, but he’s a natural for the Silver Screen.  None of the players are poised to take a big leap, though Gordon will continue to pile on to his 2009 success.

Ready to Rebound…

Andruw Jones

In 6000 plate appearances from ages 21-29, Jones’s stat line was .270/.346/.513 and he hit 319 HR while playing Gold Glove center field.  It’s not clear why he took the past three seasons off, but he’s reported to work this year, and with that much talent, his effort will be leveraged into a nice comeback season.

Ready to Disappoint…

Mark Teahen and Juan Pierre

It’s not clear why Kenny Williams decided to acquire a player who hits like Chris Getz and plays left field (Juan Pierre) and trade the real Chris Getz for the pricier Mark Teahen instead of just using the money given to both Teahen and Pierre and hiring a left fielder who could hit.  But that’s what he did, and the fans will turn on these two for not living up to their billings.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Kenny Williams trades away some of the shallow farm system in July to plug whatever holes have emerged.

Be Shocked If…

Flowers remains at catcher.  While it’s great to have a catcher who can hit like Mike Napoli, few teams have the organizational depth to pull it off, and the White Sox are not such a team.  They will realize that Konerko is nearing the end, and will play Flowers at a position where he can contribute 650 PA/season instead of under 500.

Rock Steady…

Mark Buehrle

Never finishing better than 3rd on the AL leaderboard for ERA, and rarely cracking the top 10, it’s a testament to Buehrle’s consistency that he’s among the active ERA+ leaders.

Achilles Heel…

Offense

The Sox finished in the bottom five in all 3 major rate statistics (AVG, OBP, SLG) – and that with a full year of Dye and most of one from Thome.  Other than Quentin, they have nobody who gets on base via walks and HBP very often.  Besides Pierre, they don’t have players who will substantially raise the team batting average.  And only Quentin is a front-line power threat, in a park which rewards hitting deep flies.

In the Next Three Years…

Unless another fire hits Chicago, there won’t be any change in plans for Kenny Williams.  The shakeups in the scouting and player development departments in 2007-2008 has led to improved  talent acquisition – but young talent is just the coin of the realm for Williams.  Expect surprising moves annually, as he continues the system of building a team to compete – not dominate – and then makes in-season moves to address anything not going according to plans.

Call Your Sons, Call Your Daughters…

Sometimes a “homer” announcer like Hawk Harrelson is just right for the moment, and Mark Buehrle’s “Performance of the Year” perfect game, capped by a homer-saving catch by Dwayne Wise, was one such time.

You can put it on the board! YES! This preview… is ovah! Tomorrow BDD heads to ol’ Milwaukee for Michael Street’s Brewers preview. Until then, there’s plenty of reading material about the upcoming sesason available at BDD:

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