Posted by Isaac Thorn on Saturday, March 13, 2010 at 11:01 pm

There are a few things you can be sure of about this year’s Cincinnati Reds: IF all of their talent plays up to their full potential, the young Red Machine will be tough to handle; IF it doesn’t, we’ll blame Dusty Baker. Sorry, Dusty, that’s just how it works with you… We don’t make the rules, we just play by ‘em. What does BDD’s Isaac Thorn think of this year’s Reds? Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for 2010, position breakdowns and more on this year’s Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati Reds

‘09 Record: 78-84, 4th in NL Central
Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (-2 differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 77-85 (3rd in NL Central)

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2009 Review

 Like many campaigns in recent seasons, unrealistic expectations placed on youngsters combined with diminished productivity from veterans set the stage for a season which seemed out of reach by the All Star break.

With Jay Bruce doing his best Rob Deer impersonation before breaking his wrist against the Mets (although he did look a lot better upon returning from the DL), and the front end of the rotation not performing consistently, Cincinnati’s 2009 season differentiated from the established norm very little. The 6-8 slots in the lineup often featured zero players with batting averages above .225, which spelled nearly certain doom once the Reds fell behind in the early innings.

While not trying to paint too bleak a picture, it is impossible to ignore the lack of production from the bottom half of the lineup. It really enabled opposing teams to coast to victory once a multiple-run lead was gained.

2010 Outlook

While the current roster make-up still has obvious holes, others have been plugged. The acquisition of Orlando Cabrera relegates Paul Janish back to utility duty, which is a good thing. One can only hope Cabrera doesn’t stumble out of the gate and turn into the 2010 version of Corey Patterson or Willy Taveras. Aroldis Chapman fever may solidify the back end of the rotation, and keep the fifth spot from being the revolving door it has been in years past. If Joey Votto can stay on the field, Brandon Phillips gets a little more selective at the plate, and Drew Stubbs plays to the level he did in 2009, Cincinnati should at least be able to compete in meaningful games deeper into the season.

They are many analysts’ dark horse team to contend in 2010… but such was the case in 2009… and 2008. Best case scenario? Cincinnati remains in the hunt for the Wild Card. A point will come when ownership must decide if this is the time to trade away one of the many young talents the team has to bring aboard a masher or reliable starter to keep the team in contention. We shall see.

2010 Team

 

 

Catcher

Ramon Hernandez’s health is of paramount concern to the Reds. While Ryan Hanigan looked very good early on in the season, his production tapered as he had to shoulder more of the load following Hernandez’s knee injury. The Reds don’t need spectacular production from the catching position to compete; they just can’t have Craig Tatum, Corky Miller, or David Ross hitting a buck-ninety and expect to have much of a shot.

Infield

Joey Votto is on the verge of exploding into the next Larry Walker… if he can stay on the field. Brandon Phillips’ supreme talent is only matched by his nonchalance. Phillips needs to take walks, runs balls out (as he forgot to a few times last year), and lead by example in the club house. Whatever Orlando Cabrera gives the team has got to be better than what Paul Janish did last year. While he is great defensively, it is hard to carry a .211 average day in and day out at that position. While Scott Rolen isn’t getting any younger, if he is healthy he should be able to produce decently… and not make routine one-hoppers a circus adventure like his predecessor Edwin Encarnacion did.

Young pitchers need infield defense to keep them calm. Rolen should be that guy (if nothing else). In a park as unfriendly to pitchers as Great American Ball Park, infield outs must be made regularly. When they are not, the softball game-like scores you often see on the ticker are born.

Outfield

Jonny Gomes figures to get most of the playing time in left field, and it will be interesting to see if his impressive power numbers from last year (20 HRs in 281 ABs) extend into full-time duty. While it could have been how awful an outfielder Taveras was before Drew Stubbs started playing center field for the Reds last year, it also could be that the speedy Stubbs has a glove to match his impressive rookie campaign. If not, Chris Dickerson waits in the wings. Jay Bruce will patrol right field, and if he can reduce his strikeout total by even 20, it would go a long way toward helping the Reds be a competitive team.

Bench

Aaron Miles, Paul Janish, Chris Dickerson, Drew Sutton. There you have it. Not to simplify too much, but the Reds’ bench production is not going to play a telling role in the team’s success or failure. The team’s fate is tied directly to the level of production from their starters, and if that level isn’t high enough it really won’t matter much how the reserves fare.

Starting Rotation

Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Johnny Cueto need to find a middle ground between stellar outings and not making it through 4 innings. If Dusty Baker doesn’t let Homer Bailey pitch until his arm blows up, Bailey should have the breakout year we’ve been hearing about for so long. The fifth spot appears to be Aroldis Chapman’s… and I’m not very excited about what will happen if Matt Maloney or Justin Lehr is given it for the long haul.

Bullpen

Nick Masset, Arthur Rhodes, Daniel Ray Herrera and All-Star closer Francisco Cordero highlighted one of the few positional bright spots for the club last season. Carlos Fisher also shows promise. Like the team in general, they still remain a huge question mark. Mike Lincoln and Jared Burton scare me.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE CINCINNATI REDS…

Breakthrough Performance…

Drew Stubbs

I think he will still strike out a lot, but his rare combination of speed and power prime him to be the Red whose performance raises the most eyebrows.

Ready to Rebound…

Bronson Arroyo

His numbers weren’t terrible last year, but if he can level himself out, and continue offering up quality starts I believe he can really put the rotation on his back.

Ready to Disappoint…

Orlando Cabrera

Perhaps the expectations placed on him will be more of a factor in this outcome than his production…but the team absolutely needs him to produce at a level he may not be capable of.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Aroldis Chapman is brought up too early, and gets sent back down. This could be a repeat in the mismanagement of young talent which has become an unfortunate hallmark of Reds player development.

Be Shocked If…

Ramon Hernandez stays healthy and produces all year. Continuing in the trend of acquiring guys who have had good seasons, this choice as starting catcher could snakebite the squad if he is hobbled as often as he was last year.

Rock Steady…

Scott Rolen

As a sort of de facto team leader, he is expected to be the rock, and I expect him to be.

Achilles Heel…

Management

Letting Homer Bailey throw more than a hundred pitches in many meaningless outings in September last year provided a glimpse into Baker’s penchant for blowing up young pitchers’ arms. Hopefully he softens up a bit this year… but don’t count on it.

In the Next Three Years…

We will see if the young talent the Reds’ rebuilding plan centered around are still in Cincinnati. It all depends on what trades are made, and which aren’t come July. Building around a young nucleus is one thing, but realizing trading for veteran talent is a necessity, and doing so responsibly will have the most impact on the club’s near future.

Goosebumps Moment…

It’s after the All Star break. GABP isn’t quiet. The stands are nearly full, and long-starved Cincinnatians are rooting their team on as they hang around toward September. It seems like a pipe dream given the climate of the team’s recent performance, but if it does happen there is no Major League city in America more ready to support it.

We know that tomorrow is Selection Sunday but the office pool can wait until Monday. Instead, come back to BDD to check out the Chicago White Sox preview by BDD’s Rob McQuown. It’ll include a cameo appearance from HEATER Magazine’s Rob McQuown who will provide playing time projections. Wait a second! They’re the same guy? Without proof, we’ll let you decide if they are one in the same after checking out our next offering and be sure to not miss all of the other great previews we’ve done so far.

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