Posted by Geoff Young on Friday, March 12, 2010 at 11:35 pm

Our guess is that if you found a Padres fan who woke up from a coma, he was awfully confused when looking at a newspaper last season. For those of us who weren’t in a coma, it probably still was a little surprising to see Tony Gwynn grace a Padres lineup again… especially a less pudgy, rangy version. We’re sure Geoff Young covers all that and more in his look at this year’s version. Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for 2010, position breakdowns and more on this year’s San Diego Padres.

SAN DIEGO PADRES

‘09 Record: 75-87, 4th in NL West
Pythagorean Record: 67-95 (+8 differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 79-83 (5th in NL West)

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2009 Review

It’s saying something when a team finishes 75-87 and still does better than most people thought they would. Coming off a 63-99 campaign a year earlier, expectations couldn’t have been much lower for the Padres.

Despite opening the season with a patchwork pitching staff filled with minor-league veterans and longshots coming back from injury, the Padres managed to break even through the first two months. Then summer brought a strong dose of reality. The team went 17-37 in June and July, leading to the promotion of several youngsters and the jettisoning of Jake Peavy’s contract.

From August 1 onward, the Padres played solid baseball. They went 33-25 over the season’s final two months, better than all National League teams except Colorado, St. Louis, and Atlanta. This flourish led to renewed optimism among fans, although such optimism must be tempered by the fact that the Padres outscored their opponents by exactly two runs over those 68 games.

Off the field, the transition from the John Moores ownership group to Jeff Moorad and company began. This is an ongoing process that will take years to complete, but the early returns – at least in terms of commitment to the fans – are encouraging.

2010 Outlook

Some people have interpreted the Padres’ strong finish in 2009 as a harbinger of things to come. Add renewed ownership involvement, and fans are feeling better about the Padres than they have in a while.

Even with the Padres’ initial success on moving into Petco Park (2004-2007), there was a sense among fans that the team wasn’t doing all it could for them. The new ownership group, led by Moorad and President and Chief Operating Officer Tom Garfinkel, has been saying and doing the right things to regain fan trust that somehow was lost under the old regime.

Meanwhile, although there is considerable young talent on this team, many of these players are still refining their skills at the highest level. There will be growing pains. Kids will make mistakes and be maddeningly inconsistent. This is fine; it is part of the process. The important thing is how they respond to their mistakes and inconsistency. Will coaches and veteran players be able to step in and guide them?

This is going to be learning season. The young players will learn more about themselves and what it means to be a big leaguer. The ownership group will learn more about its players (specifically, which ones will form the nucleus of the next contending Padres team) and its fans. The fans will learn that young players will drive you crazy and that no ownership group is perfect. With luck, they will learn a little patience as well, as these young players and this ownership group figure out how to make things work in San Diego.

2010 Team

Catcher

Nick Hundley returns as the starter. Hundley is a high-energy kid whose goal this year is to play more controlled and be as quiet as possible behind the dish for his pitchers. Padres bench coach Ted Simmons, who knows a thing or two about catching, suggests that it takes catchers about 450 games to get acclimated to the big leagues and is confident that Hundley is on the right track. Hundley won’t hit for much average, but he will turn on the occasional fastball that strays into his wheelhouse.

Infield

Adrian Gonzalez remains at first base for now. Speculation is rampant (check the Internet) that he’ll be moved to another team sooner rather than later. As long as he’s in San Diego, he’ll be the centerpiece of the Padres lineup. He is in his prime, and another 40 HR/100 BB season is not out of the question.

David Eckstein returns at second base, mainly because Matt Antonelli hasn’t yet proven to be the player the Padres thought he was when they drafted him. Eckstein doesn’t add much value on offense or defense, but for all the grief he gets for being “scrappy” or “gritty,” those qualities do matter on a team full of young players. I can’t prove this, of course, but that’s okay because you can’t disprove it.

With the departure of Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chase Headley moves back to his natural position. Headley has held his own during his first two seasons despite looking lost in the outfield. With a return to the hot corner comes the promise (or hope) of better things. At age 26, Headley would seem to be a good candidate for a breakthrough performance.

Young shortstop Everth Cabrera looks to build on his surprise rookie campaign. Cabrera came over from the Rockies last year as a Rule V pick and hit .255/.342/.361 with 25 stolen bases as a 22-year-old making the jump from Low-A ball. Having played mostly second base in the minors (just 57 professional games at shortstop coming into 2009), Cabrera is still learning the finer points of his position. He has good on-base skills, great speed, and a great arm. There’s a lot to like, although his entire game may not come together right away.

Outfield

Mammoth (he’s down to 275 lbs.) left fielder Kyle Blanks gets to show what he can do over a full season. Blanks finished his rookie campaign tied for fifth on the Padres with 10 homers in just 172 plate appearances. A partial tear of the right plantar fascia ended his 2009 early but now appears to be healed. Blanks will remain in left field until Gonzalez leaves, at which point he will return to his natural position of first base. Wherever Blanks ends up, he will hit. His power plays at any position, in any ballpark on the planet.

Tony Gwynn Jr., acquired last summer from Milwaukee, patrols center field for now. He has good speed, a good batting eye, and a dad with a statue at Petco Park. Gwynn has no power and he doesn’t take advantage of his speed on the bases or in the field. Some defensive metrics show him to be a very good center fielder, but visual observation suggests otherwise. After his first 27 games with the Padres last year, Gwynn was hitting .348/.439/.467. From that point forward, he hit .246/.322/.306, which is a more reasonable baseline of what to expect in the future. Gwynn is a fifth outfielder whose name will keep him in the lineup longer than it should.

Will Venable, another son of a big-league outfielder, will be in right field. Venable was a basketball standout at Princeton and is a terrific athlete. He is big and takes long strides, covering plenty of ground on the bases and in the outfield with ease. Venable probably is the best center fielder on the roster, but right field is demanding at Petco Park and he provides strong defense there as well. On offense, no single aspect of his game stands out but he does many things well. Think Jody Gerut or maybe Ben Francisco. Old school? Brian Jordan at a similar stage of development isn’t a terrible comp.

Bench

Behind the plate, Yorvit Torrealba replaces Henry Blanco as the veteran backup. Dusty Ryan, acquired from the Tigers over the winter, will be the de facto third catcher at Triple-A Portland.

On the infield, Jerry Hairston Jr. can play anywhere and is a legitimate shortstop. He essentially assumes the role vacated by Luis Rodriguez. Oscar Salazar is less of an infielder and more of a hitter, who provides some punch from the right side of the plate.

In the outfield, Scott Hairston returns for his second tour of duty. He should see plenty of action in left and center fields, and could move back into a starting role should Gwynn falter. Hairston has game changing power and isn’t intimidated in the least by Petco Park, where he owns a career line of .285/.346/.535 in 382 PA.

Veteran Matt Stairs is a non-roster invitee and could supply left-handed power off the bench. Recently acquired Aaron Cunningham is also in the mix, although more likely he will start the season at Portland.

Starting Rotation

Last year’s pleasant surprise, Kevin Correia, is this year’s nominal ace. Correia, a local product, achieved career highs in almost every category in 2009. His best case is a repeat, although given his previous track record, something less wouldn’t be shocking. Correia is a no. 4 starter given top billing on a staff with few appealing options.

The Padres brought in Jon Garland on the cheap to eat innings and buy time for some of the young arms. Garland has made at least 30 starts and worked at least 190 innings in each of the past eight seasons. He’ll be a league-average pitcher who could have some appeal to a contender come summer.

Chris Young tries to resurrect his once-promising career. Injuries have taken their toll, but when healthy, he was a dominant force at times. Two things he cannot do are pitch with anything approaching efficiency (4.07 pitches per PA for his career) and control the running game (since Young joined the Padres in 2006, opponents have stolen 120 bases against him, with a surreal 95.2% success rate).

Young left-hander Clayton Richard, part of the haul for Peavy, is the fourth starter. Richard possesses good velocity for a southpaw but spotty command. In his first half-season with the Padres, he sometimes appeared to lose focus in the middle innings. He isn’t terrible, but he isn’t very exciting either. Come to think of it, that describes the entire rotation.

The final spot is up for grabs. Right-handers Sean Gallagher, Mat Latos, and Tim Stauffer, and left-handers Wade LeBlanc and Cesar Ramos are in the mix. Gallagher and Stauffer are out of options, and Gallagher is also a candidate for the bullpen.

Latos has by far the highest upside but at age 22, and with fewer than 250 professional innings under his belt, he is not a lock to start the year in San Diego. He and LeBlanc are the best bets to stick around after 2010. Ramos is 26 years old and has averaged a paltry 5.47 K/9 in more than 600 minor-league innings. He’s a former first-round pick, though, so the Padres may not be ready to cut their losses just yet.

Bullpen

Heath Bell will continue to close as long as he wears the Padres uniform. Mike Adams will continue to work the eighth as long as he remains healthy. Luke Gregerson and Edward Mujica will offer support from the right side, with Joe Thatcher doing the same from the left.

The final two spots will go to whomever is left standing among Gallagher, Radhames Liz, Luis Perdomo, Adam Russell, and Ryan Webb. Farmhands Brandon Gomes and Evan Scribner also could contribute at some  point, particularly if Bell gets traded or Adams gets hurt.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE SAN DIEGO PADRES…

Breakthrough Performance…

Chase Headley

Headley will spend spring training readjusting to the infield. Once he is comfortable back at his old position, he can focus more on the offensive portion of his game, which could see a boost now that he no longer has to “play” the outfield.

Ready to Rebound…

Chris Young

Young gets the nod by default, partly because nobody else really played below their expected level last year and partly because Young was so bad. He reportedly is healthy, so that’s a start. Whether he can reverse a disturbing decline in command (3.04 K/BB in ‘05, 2.38 in ‘06, 2.32 in ‘07, 1.94 in ‘08, 1.25 in ‘09) is another story and one on which his success depends.

Ready to Disappoint…

Tony Gwynn Jr.

People in San Diego want to see Gwynn succeed, but how many 27-year-olds with a career minor-league line of .275/.349/.345 go on to have meaningful careers? There’s a good chance we’ve already seen his peak.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Adrian Gonzalez is traded. Not a day goes by without someone speculating where he might go and what he might fetch in return. It’s only a matter of time.

Be Shocked If…

The Padres finish with a winning record. The pitching is better than it was a year ago, which is a back-handed compliment if ever there was one, but too many questions remain, particularly in terms of how quickly the youngsters will adapt to the big leagues. For the Padres to win, everything has to go right; usually, over the course of a long season, that doesn’t happen.

Rock Steady…

Adrian Gonzalez

Everything said about Gonzalez must be qualified with “for as long as he remains in San Diego,” but nobody else even comes close. He is the one legitimate star on this team. A distant second would be closer Heath Bell, another subject of trade rumors.

Achilles Heel…

Money

I don’t buy the argument that it’s impossible for teams without much money to assemble a consistently competitive product. There have been too many counterexamples, and it seems to me that with enough smarts, great things are possible regardless of circumstances. That said, if the Padres had more money, other teams wouldn’t be salivating over the prospect of acquiring guys like Peavy and Gonzalez.

Although the Padres should be able to recover from the exodus of talent that often accompanies small-market franchises, the cost of losing fans that may have become attached to those players over the years is another matter. The challenge of building and maintaining a stable fan base that believes in the organization despite such high turnover of on-field talent is a very real one that the new ownership group must address if baseball is ever going to thrive in San Diego.

In the Next Three Years…

Fortunately for Padres fans, there is plenty of young talent, both at the big-league level and on the way. Look for Blanks and Latos to emerge as minor stars, with the likes of Cabrera and Headley serving in supporting roles. Down on the farm, keep an eye on Simon Castro, James Darnell, Jaff Decker, and Donavan Tate, among others.

Depending on how the kids develop this year, the Padres could find themselves in contention as early as 2011. Between the young talent and the new ownership group, fans have a renewed sense of hope, much of which is even justified.

Goosebumps Moment…

They’re all goosebumps moments. A bad day at the ballpark is better than a good day pretty much anywhere else. That sounds unbelievably corny, but I happen to believe it.

You stay classy, BDD readers! We’ll be back tomorrow with Isaac Thorn’s Cincinnati Reds’ preview. Until then, enjoy the previews you’ve already read at least twice before:

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