Posted by Jeff Lubbers on Thursday, March 11, 2010 at 11:31 pm

The financial world has it’s Wall Street, baseball has Oakland. At least that is what it looked like last year as GM Billy Beane added Matt Holliday for a few promising commodities and some penny stocks then dealt him mid-season for a haul that had a better 52-week outlook from their analysts. Of the three teams involved in the deal, only the Athletics missed the postseason… but this team’s success is measured by win/dollars spent, not postseason success. How will Billy Beane’s portfolio do this year? We turn to BDD’s Jeff Lubbers for the answers.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

‘09 Record: 75-87, 4th in AL West
Pythagorean Record: 81-81 (-6 differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 84-78 (2nd in AL West)
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2009 Review

While it can’t be called a complete failure, it’s safe to say that Billy Beane’s first foray into the free agent market for some time last offseason was anything but a resounding success. Matt Holliday and Orlando Cabrera performed well enough but were shipped to contenders by the end of summer. Nomar Garciaparra predictably couldn’t stay on the playing field and Jason Giambi’s feel-good return to his original team hid the fact he was barely a shell of the player he once was.

Meanwhile, the team found bullpen success out of the blue (again) with Andrew Bailey and Michael Wuertz, however, the team’s bullpen strength could not overcome a mediocre starting staff which saw 14 pitchers get at least one start for the team. All in all the A’s followed up 75 and 76 wins in 2007 and 2008, respectively, with another 75 wins in 2009. A dark horse candidate to contend in 2009, the team struggled out of the gate, settling in to fourth place for good by May 3, and once again at the gate, becoming the first team other than the Marlins to finish last in baseball in attendance since 2005.

2010 Outlook

The A’s could actually surprise some people both in 2010 and beyond. As of this writing, Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projections has them finishing second, a mere two games behind Seattle. Given that the Mariners already had a significant improvement in ’09, a continued improvement out of Seattle might be difficult for the Mariners to maintain providing further optimism in Oakland.

Of course, someone will need to alert the fan base that a possible contender lurks in the Coliseum’s tarp-covered shadows.

2010 Team

Catcher

Underrated Kurt Suzuki remains one of the team’s assets, as 25 year old catchers who can hit 15 home runs are valuable commodities. However, that power surge, which surpassed his first two seasons combined, included a disturbing second half OBP of .286. Suzuki followed up a strange 2008 campaign that saw an OPS at his pitcher-friendly home that was over 200 points higher than on the road, only to see that trend go in reverse in 2009 as his home/road OPS split was .794/.671.

Infield

Though he has been bouncing around the minors since being drafted in the first round (by St. Louis) in 2003, Daric Barton is only 24 years old and still has time to develop into a solid regular. He put up positive offensive and defensive numbers after being called up last August and will likely hold down first base to start 2010.

Incumbent Mark Ellis continues to put up 10+ home runs from second base while not staying on the field for the whole season, missing nearly 100 games the past two years.

2005 first rounder Cliff Pennington was a pleasant surprise at shortstop for the team following the trade of Orlando Cabrera to the Twins on July 31. Pennington, who has a career .720 minor league OPS, posted a nice little .760 OPS in 60 games for the A’s. Manager Bob Geren said the starting shortstop position is a camp battle though it would be somewhat of a surprise if Pennington is not in the starting lineup on Opening Day.

Acquired from San Diego in the offseason, Kevin Kouzmanoff will give Oakland stability at the hot corner, as the team has been struggling to find a consistent presence at third base since Eric Chavez started falling apart a few years back.

Outfield

Ryan Sweeney plays the role that Billy Beane fulfilled during his brief playing days — that of a guy who looks like he should be a tremendous ballplayer but whose numbers leave something to be desired. Armed with a beautiful left-handed swing, Sweeney actually offers much more value with his defense, posting the second highest UZR/150 in the outfield in all of baseball in 2009.

Pleasant surprise Rajai Davis will likely start the season in left field, though he could see time in center field. New instructor Rickey Henderson sees some serious base-stealing potential in Davis, predicting Davis could swipe 80 bases this season. While this claim may be a bit of a stretch, Davis will contribute on the basepaths (The Bill James Handbook said Davis was the fourth best baserunner in baseball in 2009) and in the field (16.2 UZR/150), though not a whole lot with his powerless bat (7 home runs in 333 career games).

Coco Crisp rounds out the defensive outfield that looks to cover the vast outfield territory at the Oakland Coliseum as well as part of the parking lot.  However, Crisp has not contributed much to speak of offensively since the days when he was supposed to make Red Sox Nation forget about Johnny Damon.

Designated Hitter

Three True Outcomes hero Jack Cust has gone from underrated to overrated. The offensively-challenged A’s were willing to chance losing his 84 home runs since 2007 (tied for sixth most in the American League) and did not offer arbitration in the off-season. He was brought back after taking a slight pay cut.

Bench

Perennial what-could-have-been Eric Chavez (MVP votes every year from 2002-2005, 390 games missed from 2006-2009) could see time at multiple positions in 2010 including first and third base. Eric Patterson can play all three outfield positions and second base. Jake Fox, brought over from the Cubs in the off-season, could see time at either corner infield position.

Starting Rotation

The Ben Sheets signing for a surprising $10 million guaranteed (with additional bonuses to boot) marked perhaps the first free agent signing in awhile in which, before the ink dried, fans were already wondering where he would wind up next. The common wisdom is that Sheets was signed to flip for prospects to a contender, which could very well prove to be the case.

Like Sheets, 2008 All-Star Justin Duchscherer also missed the entire 2009 season with various injuries, including a bout with depression. It is certainly an iffy proposition to rely on multiple front-of-the-rotation starters who have missed all of the previous season. So far the results are predictably mixed as Sheets appears ready to recapture his old form, however Duchscherer’s spot in the rotation to begin 2010 is currently in doubt as he so far has been unable to build enough stamina to prove his durability.

Brett Anderson, brought over to Oakland as part of the haul for Dan Haren, has potential All-Star written all over him at the ripe old age of 22. Something close to a full season out of soft-throwing-but-effective Dallas Braden would be a boon to the starting rotation. Braden was quietly effective before a foot infection ended his season by the end of July. Trevor Cahill reliably took to the mound week in and week out in 2009 with decent results. Given the unpredictability in the rest of the rotation, he will most likely get his fair share of starts in 2010.

Gio Gonzalez’s 5.75 ERA was rough, though Gonzalez’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) mark of 4.47 in ’09 shows him to be a much better pitcher than last year’s ERA and makes him a good candidate to fill out the back of the rotation. Brett Tomko is also fighting for a roster spot after making six surprisingly impressive starts for the team in 2009 but won’t be ready until May.

Bullpen

Andrew Bailey got the press and a Rookie of the Year Award to go on his mantle though veteran Michael Wuertz was equally valuable to the team (both posted 2.4 WAR). The bullpen remains a strength of the team. 2008 lighting-in-a-bottle success Joey Devine may not be fully recovered by Opening Day after missing all of 2009. If he can regain even a portion of his sparkling form from ‘08 (0.59 ERA, 0.83 WHIP), this bullpen becomes tougher.

Though Brad Ziegler’s ERA tripled from ’08 to ’09 it still only jumped to just over three, though his 1.50 WHIP will make it difficult to keep the ERA around that same level for long. Jon Meloan pitched for four organizations in ’09 meaning he’s sure to break out for Oakland in ’10.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE OAKLAND ATHLETICS…

Breakthrough Performance…

Kevin Kouzmanoff

While trading Petco for the Oakland Coliseum may be a modest improvement in hitting environments, it’s an improvement nonetheless.  His Equivalent (standardized) Slugging % (EqSLG) has been 30 or more points higher than his actual slugging percentage in each of the last three years thanks to the Petco effect.

Ready to Rebound…

Kurt Suzuki

Rebound candidates are a bit tough to come by on this team as many of those who disappointed in ’09 are no longer with the organization. However, Kurt Suzuki’s second half last year was disappointing and the rest of his career numbers show he can perform better.

Ready to Disappoint…

Cliff Pennington

In all likelihood Pennington outperformed himself in ’09 after replacing Orlando Cabrera. The club recognized this as well in seeking out the services of Marco Scutaro, who signed with Boston.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

The rotation does not drag down the team as it has in recent years. While there are question marks at the top enough viable backup plans remain to make the starting rotation not a total liability. How is that for a ringing endorsement?

Be Shocked If…

Anyone is around to watch a potential A’s turnaround in 2010. The team’s constant flirting with every possible available parcel of land within a 50 mile radius on which to build a new stadium does nothing to encourage fans to watch a team without star power that might be in contention.

Rock Steady…

Ryan Sweeney

While his offensive numbers do not drop any jaws, FanGraphs still ranked Sweeney as the 16th most valuable outfielder in baseball in 2009 using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) thanks almost exclusively to his defense. Even if his bat never fully comes around his defensive value is unlikely to wane any time soon.

Achilles Heel…

The Infield Excluding Third Base

Pennington at shortstop and Barton and Ellis at first and second base, respectively, are either unknown quantities (Pennington and Barton) or in the final years of their career (Ellis).  Whatever the reason, their collective offensive production will be below that of the rest of the team.

In the Next Three Years…

The A’s will either need to become contenders for multiple seasons or find a resolution to their stadium issue (or in all likelihood both) in order to establish long-term stability for the franchise.

Fall off Your Chair Moment…

Learning that Beane and Moneyball-nemesis Grady Fuson are once again on friendly working terms. The only potential baseball reunion more shocking would be the Red Sox rehiring Grady Little.

One-third of the way through, BDD shows more California love with Geoff Young’s San Diego Padres preview tomorrow. Here’s the teams we’ve covered so far:

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