Posted by Dan Wade on Wednesday, March 10, 2010 at 1:03 pm

Let’s start from the obvious: Losing Joe Nathan for the year is a bad thing, maybe even a very bad thing. However, if losing the closer completely derails what appeared to be a very promising season, then chances are that the odds of playoff success weren’t that high in the first place.

The Twins are in something of a precarious position right now, Nathan is almost certainly—really, barring a miracle—going to miss all of this season. They don’t have a closer-in-waiting the way some teams do, but they may well be one of the teams best able to survive an injury to their closer.

Looking at last season’s expected wins for relievers (WXRL to be exact), the Twins boasted three relievers (Nathan, Matt Guerrier, and Jose Mijares) within the top 25, something no other team did. Nathan did have the highest leverage rating of the three, but not by a huge amount.

Losing Nathan is a big emotional loss and I don’t want to gloss over this. Russell Carelton’s piece on Tuesday showed how reliable Nathan has been over the last few seasons, and it’s true, he’s as close to a lockdown sure thing there is out there. Mo Rivera is the gold standard of closers, but Nathan has been every bit as good over the last five seasons. No one is going to step in and be Joe Nathan, but—even absent the mythology of the “dominant closer” mantle—someone might be able to step in and give the Twins 80-90 percent of Nathan’s production.

Every year, someone steps up and starts collecting saves like they were Pokemon. David Aardsma was released twice last year before notching 38 saves for the Mariners. Salomon Torres saved 28 games for the Brewers in 2008, Joe Borowski had 45 in 2007, 2006 saw Akinori Otsuka save 32, etc.

Would you rather have a dominant guy over that period? Of course you would, it’s one less thing to worry about, but it’s legitimately possible to take a passed over arm and pull 28+ saves out of it. Joe Nathan wasn’t a closer until he got to MN, so even the best ones can be a surprise.

So, who steps in and tries to surprise the baseball world by not looking like a complete clown by filling Nathan’s ample shoes?

Looking at last season, Matt Guerrier was the closest thing the Twins had to a consistent setup man. He was most effective in medium leverage situation, but did fine when the pressure was on. He’s also one of the most durable pitchers in baseball, having thrown the most games in the AL in both of the last two seasons.

The knock on Guerrier seems to be two fold. First, while he was outstanding last year, he’s had trouble sustaining his success in the past. He was a very, very solid reliever in 2007 with a WXRL of 2.4—lower than expected due to the low leverage situations he was in—a WHIP of 1.04, and an ERA of 2.35. The next season he bottomed out with a WXRL of .783, a WHIP of 1.58, and an ERA over 5.

If the Twins knew the Guerrier they saw in 2009 was going to reemerge in 2010, I don’t think there would be much controversy over who would close, but that promise isn’t there with any player and certainly not with Guerrier.

The other reason is something that will recur with a number of the Twins’ options: a low strikeout rate. Guerrier struck out just 5.5 hitters per nine last year, fifth worst on the team. His low WHIP was due in large part to a very low batting average on balls in play, .214, compared to a league average of .299 and a career average of .273. Even if Guerrier is as effective as he was last year, chances are that his BABIP will rise back toward his career average. Assuming that happens, his ERA and WHIP will rise as well, making his look less appealing at the end of games in close and late situations.

Jose Mijares is the Twins situational lefty, or LOOGY if you will, which makes me think he’ll stay in that role rather than trying to master righties in high leverage situations.

That said, if he’s left at the end of a game and there are two or three lefties in the opposing order, he’ll almost certainly get the ball. While Gardy may not go with a closer by committee, he’s no fool, and should use Mijares in the highest leverage situation he can while still using him primarily against lefties.
Jon Rauch is the only Twin outside of Nathan that has closing experience at the major league level, which isn’t saying much considering he had all of 18 saves in 2008. He was great in his 15 innings with the Twins, but that’s no better a sample than making a judgment on spring numbers.

He keeps the ball in the park reasonably well—especially when you take out his desert-and-park-inflated numbers from Arizona—and has one of the highest K/9 of the remaining relievers.

Imposing is a word often used to describe closers, so if phenotype is part of that consideration, then Rauch is the prohibitive leader. At 6 feet 11 inches and covered in tattoos, Rauch dwarfs nearly every other pitcher in baseball, and while Loek Van Mill will give him a run for his money someday, the 7-foot righty isn’t big league ready quite yet.

All kidding aside, Rauch seems to be the likely choice as the season opens. He’s pitched in high leverage situations before, misses a decent amount of bats (19.3% career swing and miss percentage), and isn’t a home run machine. Don’t be surprised if he takes the ball in the ninth while the Twins look outside the organization for help. Rauch is unlikely to be the surprise closer I talked about before, but he’s also unlikely to be the guy who blows four consecutive saves and kills the team morale. Simply stated, he’s the safest option.

Pat Neshek’s name has been thrown around a lot, and his good start to the spring has done nothing to dampen those rumblings. First, ignore spring numbers as they are apropos of nothing. It’s great to see Neshek pitching well after missing so much time, but the idea that his ability to take the Red Sox’s minor leaguers down 1-2-3 is indicative of the fact that he’s ready to be a major league closer is laughable.

The best case scenario for Neshek this season is just to get back into the big league groove. Strike hitters out, make righties look foolish, and be a reliable option for a full season. Adding the responsibility of being the high leverage option from day one is just too much to ask. Could he slot into the role as part of a closer by committee or as part of a platoon with Mijares? Sure, but indications are that the Twins want someone to be the capital C Closer.

Jesse Crain is the dark horse of the Twins’ internal crew. I’ve made it no secret that I think Crain should be left out of the discussion, but it’s hard to argue with the fact that he was getting some of the higher leverage situations down the stretch for the Twins. His 2009 numbers are skewed by a horrible, abominable start to the season, but he from Aug. 18 to the end of the regular season, he allowed just four runs in 22 appearances while holding hitters to a .159/.277/.188 line.

Much like Guerrier, if the Twins knew that was the Crain they were getting, my guess is that they’d be seriously considering going with the Canadian and his mid- to upper-90s fastball. However, Crain’s effectiveness ebbs and flows even within a season, and the Twins are specifically looking for someone who is going to provide confidence at the back end of games. Pretty much exactly the opposite of Crain.

AAA Rochester has a closer that has gotten some buzz in Anthony Slama. His minor league numbers are gaudy: He saved 25 games in 2008 for Ft. Myers with a WHIP of 0.94 and a K/9 of 13.9. In 2009, he had 29 saves with a WHIP of 1.19 and 12.4 K/9 between AA and AAA. It’s important to note, however, that he’s been old at every level and while that shouldn’t completely diminish his numbers, he was playing against players 3-4 years young than he.

He isn’t currently on the 40-man roster, but this whole discussion is based on Nathan missing the season, meaning his spot would be open for Slama or another replacement outside the 40-man.

Even with his good history, that the Twins haven’t even given him a September call-up makes me fairly sure that he won’t be tabbed for this job. At this point, I think the best case scenario for Slama is that someone within the organization moves into the closers role and he gets Nathan’s spot on the roster to at least start facing major leaguers. If he’s incredible effective in that low leverage role, perhaps he’d start to earn Gardy’s trust, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening.

If I had to rank my choice for the closers role internally I’d probably go with Rauch, then Guerrier, Crain, Neshek, and Mijares. I think the Twins’ list is probably similar with the possible flipping of Crain and Guerrier because of Crain’s higher strike out totals.

The Twins certainly have a number of passable, but uninspiring options. If they choose to stick with what they’ve got, I suspect they’ll be ok, but they’ll be relying on the offense not to stake them to too many one run leads late in games. The easier the save situations, the less the Twins will miss Nathan.
However, the Twins have a few players they’ve been looking to move anyway. Next time I’ll look at a couple external options that may lessen the blow of losing one of the best closers of the last five years.