Posted by David Wade on Wednesday, March 10, 2010 at 11:57 pm

So, you want to know about the Blue Jays, eh? There are many new faces, Roy Halladay is gone and they still play in baseball’s toughest division. Since there’s no reason to drink wine in baseball, their likely trip to the cellar in the East isn’t good, and will likely register more losses at Fenway than fine bottles of Cabernet at Martha’s Vineyard when they visit Boston. Check out David Wade’s pessimistic preview of the rebuilding Blue Jays. Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for 2010, position breakdowns and more on this year’s Toronto Blue Jays.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

‘09 Record: 75-87, 4th in AL East
Pythagorean Record: 84-78 (-9 Differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 69-93 (5th in AL East)
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2009 Review

Last year’s Toronto Blue Jays posted W-L record that, on the surface, seems unexceptional. But, some interesting statistics lie beneath their pedestrian finish. For instance, by outscoring their opponents for the season by 27 runs, the Jays posted the worst difference in all of MLB between their expected win-loss total based on run differential versus their actual record. To provide an example of how goofy that is, the Chicago Cubs had about the same difference between runs scored and runs allowed in 2009 and finished 83-78, one game within their expected outcome.

The Blue Jays finished the year 31-50 on the road despite outscoring their opponents by 8 runs overall during those games. Of course, most of the Jays’ misfortune came from being in the American League East. They ran out to a quick start and led the division by 3.5 games on May 18. However, Toronto lost 9 straight and never recovered. They finished the year 20 games under .500 against the A.L. East while playing 8 games above .500 against the rest of the American League.

The biggest team news in 2009 was off the field as the front-office decided to embrace radical reconstruction. They discarded high-paid big-name players like Scott Rolen and Alexis Rios during the season. On October 3, they fired J.P. Ricciardi and named Assistant G.M. and V.P. of Baseball Operations Alexander Anthopoulos as the new General Manager. A week later, Dick Scott was out as Director of Player Development.

Finally, at the end of the month, they named Paul Beeston President and C.E.O.. But, all that would just be a preview to the entirety of their makeover. Just before Christmas, the Jays traded face-of-the-franchise ace Roy Halliday to the Philadelphia Phillies and essentially took themselves out of any serious hopes of playing .500 baseball in 2010.

2010 Outlook

With the Orioles expecting better things as soon as this season, Toronto’s outlook is pretty bleak. They start 2010 as the worst team on paper in the best division in baseball. The rotation is inexperienced. The offense’s success will rely too much on their batting average and power, since very few starters look like they’ll frequent the base paths. But, with their off-season moves, it’s not 2010 Toronto is building toward. The Halliday trade (and subsequent flip of Michael Taylor to Oakland for Brett Wallace) garnered Toronto their top three prospects in pitcher Kyle Drabek, corner infielder Wallace, and catcher Travis d’Arnaud. Those players, combined with the acquisition of Brandon Morrow, give the Blue Jays a good core of talented young players that could start contributing in the near future.

2010 Team

Catcher

This past winter, Toronto signed free agent catchers John Buck and Jose Molina as placeholders. Both Travis d’Arnaud and J.P. Arencibia — currently ranked in the organization’s top 5 prospects according to Baseball Prospectus — seem close to spending time north of the border. Before that happens, Toronto will start Buck and have a catcher with moderate power, but very low OBP.  Molina will back him up and either could be dealt for a pittance near the trade deadline.

Infield

First baseman Lyle Overbay gets on base a little but lacks power and provides average defense. At $8 million in the final year of his contract, being a Blue Jay for the duration of ‘10 looks like a long shot.

Aaron Hill had a breakout season at second, following through on the promise he showed two years ago before injuries kept him out of most of 2008. His .286/.330/.499 line included a stunning 36 home runs and won him a Silver Slugger Award and a trip to his first All-Star game. It could be hard for him to repeat such a season (more on that later), but he’s certainly one of the best players on the team.

Newcomer Alex Gonzalez’s glove may be based more on reputation than reality, although he turned enough dazzling plays in the first half of last year in Cincinnati to say he’s still good enough defensively to help out a young group of starters who need all the defense they can get. Don’t expect much offensively from him, though.

The mid-season swap that sent Scott Rolen away delivered Edwin Encarnacion to Toronto. The third baseman’s bat has always teased, showing periods of power combined with decent on-base skills. He hurt his wrist early last year and, despite a small sample of good slugging after his return, those types of injuries often result in power dips. At 27, he needs to show he can hit well enough to offset his uninspiring defense for a full season. In the likely event he does, Encarnacion will remain the club’s starter.

Outfield

With Vernon Wells set for a pay increase that sees him making nearly $100 million from 2011-14, the huge slice of Toronto’s payroll pie will definitely be shopped. The contract that could solely justify the Ricciardi termination will either cost the Jays a large chunk of change to move or stick the club with Wells who turned 30 and hit .260/.311/.400 last year. He’s not awful and could even bounce back but that contract is ugly.

On one side of Wells, youngster Travis Snider will get another chance to show if he can be counted on as a full-time player in left field.  He played briefly with the big club the past two seasons and showed a little pop from the left side of the plate. He just turned 22 in February and his minor league stats reflect an “all-or-nothing approach” that results in some homers, but lots of strikeouts. He could hit 25 homers this year or strike out 160 times… or both.

On the other side, Jose Bautista will play right and likely be the Blue Jays lead-off hitter. Bautista is probably better suited to be a fourth outfielder and is definitely better suited to bat lower in the order. But, they have so few options for the top of the order that they will apparently turn to a player with a career .329 OBP and hope for the best.

Designated Hitter

Adam Lind is a rose among thorns in the Blue Jays offense. PECOTA projections have Lind following up his breakout season with a slight decline. Last year, the Blue Jay DH hit .305/.372/.562 and even a pessimistic projection still calls for around 30 home runs in 2010. One thing that could work against Lind and make regression more likely is that he’ll see lots of lefties late in games and be pitched around often if those behind him can’t show an ability to impact games early in the season. Still, he’s been highly regarded in the past, had a great year in ‘09, and is just now moving into the prime of his career.

Bench

The Blue Jay bench is not very awe-inspiring, unless free-agent signee Joey Gathright will jump over cars during the 7th inning stretch. A likely course of action will be a 13-man bullpen to protect the young starters’ arms and possible call ups of the near-MLB talent in the Minors for a chance to break in, maybe even before the half-way point of the season.

Starting Rotation

The competition for a rotation spot is wide open. Right now, we can probably call Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, Brandon Morrow, Marc Rzepczynski, and Brett Cecil the favorites. Of those five, Marcum is the most experienced, with a whopping 64 starts. He pitched well at the big league level in 2008, but Tommy John surgery cost him 2009. He came out of his first spring start of this season feeling good and if he can show he’s fully recovered he will likely be the Opening Day starter. Acquired in the off-season, Morrow was the 5th overall pick in the 2006 amateur draft and was highly ranked in the Mariner system. Rzepczynski did some nice work in limited action (3.67 ERA) after his call-up. He’s only allowed 5 HR in 254.2 minor league innings and, if he can keep the ball in the park, he may survive this baptism by fire.  Brett Cecil missed a lot of bats in the minors, but was hit pretty hard in 18 games with Toronto last year.  The group is ridiculously inexperienced and will face Boston and New York often. Pray for them.

Bullpen

This looks to be the strength of the team, as Scott Downs and Jason Frasor have been very good pitchers. Jesse Carlson and Shawn Camp have shown they can keep the ball in the park, despite not making a habit of blowing hitters away. In contrast, new addition Kevin Gregg spent the majority of 2009 watching his offerings leave the yard. His run as closer on other teams likely means he’ll inherit that role again this year. If he can go back to his career HR/FB rate, he’s a passable 9th inning pitcher despite his occasional wildness. Giving him the closer title would actually leave the better Toronto relievers available for higher-leverage situations.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE TORONTO BLUE JAYS…

Breakthrough Performance…

Adam Lind

Can a guy that hit over .3oo, blasted 35 homers, and knocked in over 100 runs be primed for a breakout? Well, when that person is the best hitter on the team and only 26, I’m going to go with yes. There may not be much room for improvement, but Lind has to have the highest ceiling of any starter and nothing from ’09 screams fluke. If he can continue to improve his walk rate and keep hitting one of five of his fly balls out of the park, he can break through by showing he’s elite and not just a one-year wonder.

Ready to Rebound…

Shaun Marcum

Close to a year removed from Tommy John surgery, Marcum should be fine to start the season. He was 26 in 2008 when he made 25 starts and only allowed 126 hits in 151.1 innings.  His BABIP that season of .246 means he may give up a few more hits even if he pitches as well as he did two years ago. Still, a sub-4.00 ERA and 1.163 WHIP over that many starts means he has the potential for another good year in 2010.

Ready to Disappoint…

Aaron Hill

PECOTA projections at Baseball Prospectus call for Hill’s homers to fall from 2009’s elite total of 36 to a still above-average 25. Ron Shandler also noted in his Baseball Forecaster that Hill benefitted from a higher than usual percentage (for him) of fly balls ending up in the seats. In fact, one of the easiest differences to spot in Hill’s ’07 and ’09 results are the decline in doubles that turned in to taters in 2009. If PECOTA nails it and he hits the wall on a dozen or so drives, that could easily knock him back down in the 20s. That’s still really good for a middle infielder, but disappointing if you’re looking for a run at 40 bombs.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Wells is traded, young players are called up, and several starters fail to hold their job for the full season. This season could derail quickly.

Be Shocked If…

The rotation is consistent and able to pitch deep into games. As noted, they are very young and will often face patient and potent lineups.  They’ve got some talent, but once teams get a second and third look, they could get roughed up.

Rock Steady…

Adam Lind

My breakout player is also the most likely to have a well above average year.

Achilles Heel…

The youth on the mound.

In the Next Three Years…

Some of these young guys could pan out and the front office could have a ton of money to spend. They’ve invested heavily in their scouting, but must sign their early round picks so they’ll have talent coming up to entice free agents to play for them.

Lame Duck Walk…

Manager Cito Gaston enters 2010 knowing he’ll be out of the dugout and in an office after the season. He’s already guaranteed a consultant position and Toronto will look for a replacement for 2011.

Nine down, 21 to go. We’re California dreamin’ with our next two previews — Jeff Lubbers takes on the Oakland Athletics and Geoff Young returns to BDD for the first time in nearly a year to deliver the San Diego Padres — so don’t miss ‘em! Oh, and these were worth a look, too…

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