Posted by Brian Joseph on Tuesday, March 9, 2010 at 11:55 pm

Injuries, clubhouse turmoil, and a disappointing second half collapse foiled the Houston Astros 2009 plans. An off-season roster re-tooling, a new manager (this time actually hired by the team’s General Manager!), and a few budding prospects has hopes renewed… but what team isn’t hopeful in March? Brian Joseph figuratively visits Houston and gives his outlook on this year’s Astros. Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for 2010, position breakdowns and more on this year’s Houston Astros.

HOUSTON ASTROS

‘09 Record: 74-88, 5th in NL Central
Pythagorean Record: 68-94 (+6 Differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 76-86 (4th in NL Central)
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2009 Review

Even though last year’s Astros were in the playoff hunt through a majority of the season (they were within 1 game in the NL Central through 95 games), there was never a sense this team had it together. A caustic clubhouse combined with injuries, ineffectiveness and a manager who lost his team and actually wasn’t very good at managing when he had their support, saw the Astros tumble. September featured a 9-game losing streak and the firing of Cecil Cooper with many Astros’ fans just happy the season was over.

2010 Outlook

What off-season wouldn’t be complete without a bevy of baseball bloggers storming Ed Wade’s office with torches and pitchforks? Fueled by a two-year extension to Wade’s tenure as Astros’ GM, every move made by Wade came under scrutiny. Here’s a quick recap:

• The Astros offered Jose Valverde arbitration and passed on LaTroy Hawkins and Miguel Tejada. All three moved on to new addresses and the Valverde signing netted the Astros two compensation picks.
• The club signed two former Phillies — Pedro Feliz and Brett Myers — to market-value contracts.
• They traded two low-level prospects for 30-year-old Matt Lindstrom who will get a second crack at a closer job after failing miserably in Florida.
• Despite a reduction of payroll of roughly $10 million, Wade made it rain at Brandon Lyon’s house by giving the 30-year-old reliever an above-market value three year deal worth $15 million.
• Wade’s Astros will finally be helmed by a skipper of his choice: former Boston Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills.

With the additions, the Astros plugged a few holes, shed some financial obligations and added a couple of lottery tickets in June’s annual amateur prospect drawing. They’ll remain pseudo-competitive in the Central and could finish anywhere in the standings; though a 4th, 5th or 6th finish is more likely than a 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

2010 Team

Catcher

There’s a two-horse race for the starting job with a ticket to Round Rock for the loser. The first amateur selection of Ed Wade’s tenure, 22-year-old Jason Castro, is on one side with former top organization prospect J.R. Towles, 26, on the other. Both have received high praise in their rise to the majors, both were ranked #53 in Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospect list (Castro this year, Towles before the 2008 season) and both could end up being on the Opening Day lineup card. If Castro wins, he’d be making the leap from AA to the majors. If Towles wins, a slow start will quickly remind the organization of his poor stints in the majors in 2008 and 2009.

Infield

Lance Berkman had one of his worst seasons in 2009. Usually good for 150 games or more, “Fat Elvis” missed some time due to injury and posted the lowest slugging percentage (.509) since his debut season in 1999. He rebounded in the second half and the Astros hope that Berkman’s health and his concern over whether or not the club will exercise his option don’t interfere with him getting back on track.

Kaz Matsui played a career-high 132 games but failed to deliver offensively. With the addition of Tommy Manzella, a slick fielding rookie with no stick, if Matsui’s poor offensive showing continues, this could be the National League’s worst offensive double play combination. Manzella won’t come close to the production of Tejada who returned to Baltimore in the off-season but should impress with the glove.

34-year-old Pedro Feliz takes over at the hot corner. The Astros haven’t had a player make 100 starts at third base since Morgan Ensberg made 106 in 2006. Expect Feliz to change that as the former Phillie and Giant has been in the starting lineup for at least 100 games for the past six years of his career.

Outfield

Team MVP Michael Bourn brings his Gold Glove defense and fleet feet to center field. Bourn was just a punchline to every Brad Lidge joke after his awful rookie season in 2008. But the collapse of Lidge in Philly and the emergence of Bourn as a more patient lead-off hitter has that trade looking better for the Astros long-term. Whether or not Bourn’s offense is legit, he’ll still flash the leather and set the basepaths on fire and is a good bet to defend his stolen base crown (he led the NL with 61 steals in ‘09).

Left fielder Carlos Lee’s declining power and decreased range (I know, I know… what range?) in right still should see “El Caballo” turn in an effective year. He’ll be in the heart of the Astros’ lineup as he looks to post his sixth consecutive 100-RBI season.

Right fielder Hunter Pence re-emerged after a spotty sophomore effort in 2008 and earned his first All-Star trip. Pence brings power (back-to-back 25 home run seasons) and a strong arm (back-to-back 16 outfield assist seasons) to right and a second straight season of improvement across the slash line (.282/.346/.472) would be a huge plus.

Bench

While it’s either starter or minors for Towles or Castro, Humberto Quintero has already been awarded the backup catcher spot. A veteran with a low talent ceiling but adequate in a supporting role, Quintero will spell the winner of the starting job for around 50 games and as a deep bench pinch hitter.

Geoff Blum and Jeff Keppinger are available off the bench to fill in in the infield. Keppinger mashes lefties and is a versatile asset, available to play anywhere in the infield and can even venture into the outfield in extreme cases. Blum is a corner infielder with the offensive prowess of a 19-year-old slick fielding Dominican shortstop.

Jason Michaels was the team’s #1 pinch hitting option last year and should play the same role while filling in for the trio of outfielders. Neither Bourn, Lee or Pence take many days off, so barring injury, the bulk of Michaels time will be spent on the bench. He posted a slash line of .226/.369/.358 in 65 pinch hit PAs.

Also vying for a spot on this year’s Opening Day roster are outfielders Cory Sullivan and Brian Bogusevic, corner infielder Chris Johnson and middle infielder Edwin Maysonet. It would take a surprising turn of events or an unbelievable spring for Wladimir Sutil, Jose Vallejo, Yordany Ramirez or non-roster invitees Kevin Cash, Brian Esposito, Lou Santangelo, Drew Meyer, Oswaldo Navarro, Chris Shelton, Jason Bourgeios or Alex Romero to fill one of the final spots expected to go to position players.

Starting Rotation

With the addition of Brett Myers, the top three spots in the rotation are set in stone with ace Roy Oswalt’s return from an injury that cost him part of his inconsistent 2009 and lefty Wandy Rodriguez who posted career-best numbers in wins (14), innings (205-2/3), strikeouts (193), ERA (3.02), and WHIP (1.24).

Young Bud Norris would need to turn in a brutal spring to fall out of the rotation and is the likely #4 with Brian Moehler and Felipe Paulino the front-runners for the fifth spot. Norris tossed a few too many innings to be considered a rookie (note to the BBWAA member who voted for Edinson Volquez for Rookie of the Year in ‘08) but comes with high expectations after a solid debut.

Bullpen

Matt Lindstrom and Brandon Lyon are in line to be the closer and set-up man for this year’s Astros. The two bring a large amount of uncertainty to the roles when compared to last year’s tandem of Valverde and Hawkins.

Although their closer and set-up guys have posted past results to make observers nervous, the rest of the bullpen should be very good. Behind Lindstrom and Lyon, Jeff Fulchino, Alberto Arias, Tim Byrdak, Chris Sampson, and Sam Gervacio headline a deep group of talented relievers available to fill up the bullpen with some seeing Gervacio and Fulchino both as potential closers in the future.

In addition to the favorites, talented Asian import Chia-Jen Lo may not know English yet but he does know how to pitch. Like Gervacio and Fulchino, Lo is seen as a potential closer down the road and, at only 23, has an outside shot at a spot on the Opening Day roster.

25-year-old Wesley Wright is both young and left-handed and was stretched out during the winter making his versatility worth noting. He’ll compete for the LOOGY role held by Byrdak, the long reliever spot held by Sampson and the fifth rotation spot but is likely Round Rock-bound.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE HOUSTON ASTROS…

Breakthrough Performance…

Jason Castro

Banking on another disappointing effort from J.R. Towles (or what’s now known as his status quo), Castro won’t follow in Towles’ consistent below-replacement level performance. Not yet 23, expect Castro to assume the role of everyday catcher before the end of the season and be there for at least the next half decade.

Ready to Rebound…

Roy Oswalt

Oswalt’s basic numbers suffered as his 8-6 record and 4.12 ERA looked far removed from his career averages. Injuries contributed to Oswalt’s fewest starts and innings (30 and 181-1/3) since 2003. It marked only the third time in his nine-year career that Roy failed to pitch 200 innings and first time his ERA was above 3.60. He looks and feels healthy, so there’s little reason to worry about a further decline in performance.

Ready to Disappoint…

Brandon Lyon

Typically, a $5 million per year contract doesn’t set the bar too high but when a journeyman reliever gets above-market dollars and three years, that’s exactly what happens. In his career, Lyon has been a mixed bag but usually is a more effective set-up man than a closer. For most people, absent of the results, Lyon losing the closer battle to Lindstrom is an instant disappointment and his past performance in the pressure cooker says it’s a lose-lose situation for Brandon this spring.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Michael Bourn wins another Gold Glove and another stolen base title. With Jose Reyes’ health again in question, Bourn’s main competition will be Nyjer Morgan who is also an injury risk himself.

Be Shocked If…

The Astros deal Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt or Carlos Lee. No matter how badly the club needs to rebuild, owner Drayton McLane refuses to face reality. All three also have no-trade clauses further blocking any shot at moving one of these aging commodities for a much needed boost to their slowly improving minor league system.

Rock Steady…

Carlos Lee

He’ll continue to pound the ball, knock runners in and fail to track down fly balls in the alley… or 10′ in front, behind or to the left or right for that matter.

Achilles Heel…

Drayton McLane

Eventually, like in Philadelphia, Ed Wade will get his proper due. At least in Philadelphia, the ownership group was not as closed off to taking the necessary steps to become successful as McLane is. He finally agreed to move on from Cecil Cooper last year and begrudgingly has let a youth movement begin in Houston. It’s not the worst thing in the world when your owner demands the team remain competitive but it sure can slow down a long overdue rebuilding process.

In the Next Three Years…

A continued effort of half rebuilding and half competing should keep the Astros fairly mediocre and slightly better or worse depending on luck. The door should close on the Berkman and Lee era with the Oswalt era not far behind. Although Baseball America projects Chris Johnson (at third), Jiovanni Mier (at short), Ross Seaton and Jordan Lyles (in the rotation), and Sam Gervacio (as closer), McLane’s desire to compete keeps at least one of these player’s off their major league path with another blocked for the usual “prospect fails to live up to expectations” occurrence.

Becoming Routine…

Outfielders Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn joined Miguel Tejada with 155-plus games played becoming the first team in Astros’ history to boast four players on the roster with that many appearances. It was the 54th team in the history of the game (courtesy of Baseball Reference’s Play Index) to have such an accomplishment.

With another team in the books, it’s time to go North of the Border. Hopefully, David Wade has his passport ready and isn’t caught up too long in customs as we look to him for the skinny on the rebuilding Blue Jays. In case you missed them:

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