Posted by Harry Pavlidis on Saturday, March 6, 2010 at 2:12 am

Much like their divisional foes in Arizona, the Los Angeles Dodgers opened Spring Training with questions at the back-end of their rotation. Hopefully a lot of teams have this problem, and usually do. Otherwise this series will run its course quickly.

Both the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers have a favorite for the fifth slot, with some competition mostly fighting sixth and seventh slots. As I mentioned while previewing at the back of the D-Backs rotation, most teams have to think at least seven deep. With Arizona, I looked at three pitchers (skipping one fringe candidate and whiffing another actual candidate). Instead of relying on my own wits (cough), ESPN has provided ample fodder for a preview of the Dodgers eventual pecking order of fringe starters (EPFS?).

[T]he competition for the fifth spot in the starting rotation began in earnest on Tuesday, when Eric Stults, Charlie Haeger and Carlos Monasterios all took the mound in a “B” game…other candidates for the spot are lefty Scott Elbert and non-roster invitee Ramon Ortiz…odds-on favorite, though, is probably right-hander James McDonald

Thank you, Tony Jackson, for the scoop. Jackson also reminds readers Stults and Haeger are out of options (so they’d have to clear waivers to be sent down) and Ortiz hasn’t made a big league club in three years. Monasterios was a Rule 5 selection, which also means make the team or clear waivers. In his case, he’d also have to be refused by his original team (Phillies) before a demotion, assuming he clears waivers to begin with.

PITCHf/x Reports

Starting with PITCHf/x, and omitting Monasterios (yet to pitch in a PITCHf/x park), what follows is a summary of each pitch thrown by five of the candidates. All PITCHf/x data is from MLBAM and Sportivsion, via MLB.com’s Gameday. All pitch classifications are my own.

The summary table for each pitcher includes the pitch “Type”, “#” thrown in games covered by PITCHf/x, # thrown “vs LHH” and “vs RHH” batters, average speed (“MPH”) and spin deflection (“PFX_X” is left-to-right, negative numbers are to the catcher’s left, “PFX_Z” is up-and-down, negative numbers indicate top spin, — think curve ball — and  positive numbers backspin — as in “rising” fastball). Spin deflection is the deviation (in inches) from the path of a pitch that is only under the influence of gravity.

James McDonald

McDonald’s numbers include his September 2008 call-up. He’s essentially a three-pitch guy, with the occasional two-seam tailing/sinking fastball. Just 25 and with some lost time due to injuries in his early in his career, he’s still developing.

Type	#	vs LHH	vs RHH	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
Change-up	165	105	60	76.6	-6.5	9.6
Curveball	267	103	164	75.8	0.9	-7.5
Sinker	50	22	28	93.6	-6.9	9.0
Fastball	807	358	449	93.4	-3.0	11.8

With far more change-ups being used against lefties, McDonald is relying heavily on just two pitches against righties.  McDonald has a good enough minor league track record to keep him as a front-runner for a rotation spot, despite losing the job last year.

Charlie Haeger

Everyone loves a knuckler. This one is a former golf pro. Haeger’s data comes from each of the last three seasons, although he didn’t pitch a whole lot in any of them. He’s 26, so it’s getting harder and harder to think of him as a prospect.

Type	#	vs LHH	vs RHH	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
Change-up	2	1	1	81.4	-6.0	6.1
Fastball	67	35	32	84.7	-7.1	8.2
Knuckleball	450	165	285	70.8	0.2	3.8

Another substantial difference in pitch mix — Haeger throws fastballs more often to lefties. While hitters seem to have trouble connecting with the knuckleball, Haeger doesn’t get many called strikes with it. He’s also been plagued by walks in his last three seasons of AAA.

Eric Stults

Stults also dates back to 2007 in PITCHf/x data. He’s a southpaw and just turned 30 in December.

Type	#	vs LHH	vs RHH	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
Change-up	509	48	461	81.1	8.0	7.5
Curveball	241	75	166	76.1	-2.2	-4.0
Fastball	1190	286	904	90.3	6.4	11.0
Cutter	63	15	48	85.3	0.6	7.7

The cutter wasn’t seen from Stults at all in 2008, but it came back off that one-year hiatus after 2009 got underway. With all four pitches in use, Stults hits four different speeds. Since lefties won’t see too many change-ups out of him, the cutter becomes the middle of three speeds when he has the platoon advantage.

Ramon Ortiz

The 36-year old Ortiz made his Major League debut in 1999, but hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2007. As a result, the data for Ortiz is all from 2007, with the exception of an exhibition game from April 4, 2009.

Type	#	vs LHH	vs RHH	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
Change-up	60	56	4	86.5	-6.1	6.7
Sinker	226	122	104	92.6	-6.8	6.6
Fastball	42	21	21	92.3	-4.1	8.8
Slider	215	50	165	86.1	1.9	4.2

Sinker/slider is the name of his game, although he throws change-ups to lefties, working the ball away from them as a contrast to the slider breaking in. It’s hard to make much of it, but his velocity was down almost 2 mph last April, compared to his 2007 numbers.

Scott Elbert

Elbert has worked in relief, going back to 2008, so all his numbers have limited value when looking at him as a starter. Like Stults, he’s left-handed, but is six years younger (24). He’s had trouble with home runs, but otherwise appears to live up to his hype. His stuff is the best of the five with PITCHf/x data.

Type	#	vs LHH	vs RHH	MPH	PFX_X	PFX_Z
Change-up	7	0	7	85.5	5.8	7.7
Fastball	318	164	154	93.3	4.3	11.1
Slider	148	66	82	86.3	-1.5	-0.2

While John Sickels recently stated Elbert throws both a slider and a curveball, I haven’t been able to find another source that mentions more than one breaking pitch, nor can I find a curveball/slider split in the PITCHf/x data for Elbert. It’s possible he throws both and (a) we just haven’t seen it; or (b) I’m not finding it. I find only one cluster of breaking balls in each game from Elbert, so I’ll go with answer (a) or, alternatively, it is a single pitch that varies enough in speed to defy accurate labeling across scouts.

And the Other Guy

The Rule 5 pick gets his own section?

Carlos Monasterios

Monasterios did well in his second run through the Florida State Leauge (Single-A Advanced). He was 23 (he’ll be 24 before camp breaks), about average for the league. He really does look like someone who should be in Double-A, so I’ll call his long shot as the longest of the bunch. Long enough to reach Reading.

League-to-Player Comparisons

To put each player into some context, here are their league-relative stats for the past three years. The numbers are batters faced (BF), minus stuff like intentional walks and bunts, strike-outs per batter faced and walks plus hitter batters (K, BH), and ground balls per balls in play, including HR (GB). All stats are centered around league average, which is set to 100. It’s like OPS+. Higher isn’t always better — for walks a number below 100 is fewer walks than league average, while you’d want a strike out number more than 100.

Click the table headers to sort.

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pitcher	season	league	BF	K	BH	GB
Ramon Ortiz	2009	AAA-PCL	533	119	65	109
Eric Stults	2009	AAA-PCL	306	99	102	101
Scott Elbert	2009	AAA-PCL	146	108	84	135
James McDonald	2009	AAA-PCL	121	114	74	57
Scott Elbert	2009	AA-SOU	275	110	81	89
Eric Stults	2009	Av-CAL	27	150	0	116
Charlie Haeger	2008	AAA-INT	763	84	133	86
Charlie Haeger	2007	AAA-INT	629	94	111	90
Charlie Haeger	2009	AAA-PCL	613	91	116	92
Eric Stults	2009	MLB-NL	272	75	150	80
Charlie Haeger	2008	MLB-AL	39	51	191	103
Carlos Monasterios	2009	AA-EST	34	96	107	126
Charlie Haeger	2007	MLB-AL	119	59	177	83
Eric Stults	2008	AAA-PCL	489	114	75	97
James McDonald	2009	MLB-NL	356	91	119	94
Scott Elbert	2008	AA-SOU	159	107	87	63
James McDonald	2008	AAA-PCL	95	114	75	71
Carlos Monasterios	2007	A-SAL	655	95	110	96
Eric Stults	2008	MLB-NL	202	103	95	86
Eric Stults	2007	MLB-NL	206	95	109	90
James McDonald	2008	AA-SOU	480	107	87	75
James McDonald	2008	MLB-NL	46	113	74	72
Ramon Ortiz	2009	MLB-NL	44	67	164	70
Charlie Haeger	2009	MLB-NL	95	95	109	105
Carlos Monasterios	2009	Av-FSL	329	106	88	98
Charlie Haeger	2008	MLB-NL	28	55	188	66
Eric Stults	2007	AAA-PCL	417	108	86	90
Scott Elbert	2007	AA-SOU	56	109	83	50
James McDonald	2007	AA-SOU	210	121	62	91
Carlos Monasterios	2008	Av-FSL	409	98	103	103
James McDonald	2007	Av-CAL	337	119	61	76
Ramon Ortiz	2007	MLB-AL	474	115	72	103
Ramon Ortiz	2007	MLB-NL	58	71	157	104
Scott Elbert	2009	MLB-NL	121	101	98	99
Scott Elbert	2008	MLB-NL	31	93	113	112
Scott Elbert	2007	MLB-NL	15	76	148	96

Summary data (2007-2009):

pitcher	BF	K	BH	GB
Ramon Ortiz	1109	113	77	105
Eric Stults	1919	102	97	92
Charlie Haeger	2286	87	126	90
Scott Elbert	803	106	88	92
James McDonald	1645	109	83	80
Carlos Monasterios	1427	99	103	99

Final thoughts: Ortiz is the only ground ball pitcher, which doesn’t matter too much in Chavez Ravine. Stults looks very average, and is getting past his prime. Haeger, as mentioned earlier, doesn’t throw strikes. Elbert and McDonald could be for real and ready. Monasterios doesn’t seem Major League ready.