Posted by Andrea Betts on Saturday, March 6, 2010 at 5:25 pm

All the little kids growin’ up on the skids are going, “Cleveland rocks! Cleveland rocks!” But does BDD’s Andrea Betts think the Cleveland Indians rock in 2010? Will they bounce back from a rough 2009 or has trading away CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez over the last two seasons set them too far down the rabbit hole of rebuilding? Where are the skids anyway? Alice went to Wonderland, Andrea goes to Cleveland for the answers (Well to most of the questions, anyway!). Through the looking glass we go: Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for 2010, position breakdowns and more on this year’s Cleveland Indians.

CLEVELAND INDIANS

‘09 Record: 65-97, 4th in AL Central
Pythagorean Record:  73-89 (-8 differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 79-83 (3rd in AL Central)
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2009 Review

2009 was not the year for the Cleveland Indians. It was the team’s worst finish since 1991. In a division many felt was the Indians to win, they fell far short. The pitching was abysmal, giving up the second most earned runs, second most walks and lowest VORP in the AL. Cleveland’s offense was better, scoring 773 runs and batting .264, but standard producers did not live up to standard expectations. With an 11 game losing streak in September, the Indians had one of those seasons fans would rather forget.

2010 Outlook

2010 looks to be brighter for the Indians, but a playoff-worthy year? Let’s not get ahead of ourselves! Heavy competition from the Twins, White Sox and Tigers will likely hold the Tribe to the 4th spot in the AL Central. Their already decent offense has improved and a full season from a healthy Matt LaPorta may produce big dividends. The addition of Russell Branyan will certainly help, but Branyan will almost certainly add his fair share of strikeouts, something the Indians were already fine at amassing. Pitching will likely be the biggest spot of trouble for the Indians, however, with a shaky starting rotation and a lot of young talent.

New Indians manager Manny Acta looks to turn around a team that struggled horribly last year. Will Acta be able to replicate the magic he worked with the Washington Nationals in 2007?

2010 Team

Catcher

Lou Marson starts at catcher in 2010, but expect the Indians to add top prospect Carlos Santana by June. Marson will be the man behind the plate for early spring, but essentially is keeping the spot warm until Santana arrives. Marson, one of the top prospects from the Phillies farm system, delivers at the plate but not power.

Infield

With the February addition of seasoned veteran Russell Branyan, the Indians bought themselves a power hitter and at least average defensive player. The move to place Branyan at first base will push Matt LaPorta to the outfield.  In 2009, arguably Branyan’s best season offensively, he produced 31 home runs and 76 RBIs for the Mariners. However, he also struck out 149 times. Branyan’s 2009 season ended early due to a herniated disk; he is currently healthy, but it will be an injury that is closely watched.

In 2009, Luis Valbuena proved he could bounce back from his rocky Major League debut with the Mariners in 2008. Valbuena will likely be the primary second baseman for the Indians after spending a majority of his time there last year, managing a .985 fielding percentage and 6 errors. He is still young so don’t expect stellar numbers, but his power is slowly improving, and the Tribe can expect to get slightly more run production (2009 Avg. 250, RBI 31, Runs 52) in 2010.

Asdrubal Cabrera is the Indians starting shortstop, a position he moved to last year after playing second base. Cabrera, projected by many to be an eventual Golden Glove candidate, will need to demonstrate he can have the same range and capabilities he did at second, but this should come as he gets comfortable. Cabrera takes over the lead-off spot in the batting order from Grady Sizemore who was shifted to the second spot in the lineup. Cabrera had a 0.799 OPS last year and a 0.340 OBP while batting lead-off for Cleveland in 2009. He was the leader for the Indians in doubles with 43 in 2009.

Jhonny Peralta takes his place in the starting lineup at third base. A more natural shortstop, Peralta was moved to the position in June 2009, and it seemed to subsequently affect his offensive production; his OBP (0.316), SLG(0.375) and OPS (.690) were all below his career numbers of 0.331, 0.425 and 0.756 respectively. His strong arm and glove may help him overcome the challenges of the new position, but he likely won’t be a standout player in the infield.

Outfield

With the decision to play Branyan at first base it looks like Matt LaPorta starts in left field and Michael Brantley starts in AAA. LaPorta has shown versatility and has become comfortable in outfield.  Still recovering from hip and toe surgeries in October, LaPorta is expected to be 100% for opening day. If healthy, the Indians can expect solid production from him.

The Indians are hoping that center fielder Grady Sizemore is able to bounce back from his worst offensive season to date. The Tribe recently announced his move to second in the batting order. The move will hopefully provide more RBIs (64 in 2009, a SLG of 0.445 and OPS of 0.788) and generate better run production. The two-time Golden Glove winner will no doubt be a defensive asset in center field. Sizemore is coming back from elbow surgery and an additional procedure to fix a hernia last fall.

Shin-Soo Choo goes to battle for the Tribe in right. An above average fielder and developing power-hitter, Choo means run production and safety in right. 2009 was terrific for Choo at the dish, last year he delivered a 0.394 OBP and .489 SLG. He is quick (21 stolen bases last year) and can create offensive opportunities. He will likely bat third.

Designated Hitter

Provided Travis Hafner stays healthy, the Indians can rely on him to be productive as the team’s designated hitter. Hafner has long been an effective mainstay in Cleveland’s batting order, and while he only played in 94 games last season, he still racked up 16 home runs and a .862 OPS. A full recovery is expected from shoulder injuries that hampered him last year.

Bench

Mike Redmond is the likely backup at catcher. Redmond was signed as a free agent in January and the 12-year vet offers solid experience to the young team.

Andy Marte provides a solid bench option at the corners. His offensive numbers, while not impressive, did show a glimpse of power in 2009.

Mark Grudzielanek is strong against left-handers so expect to see him filling in for Valbuena who has struggled against lefties. Grudzielanek brings more leadership to the team and can fill in anywhere in the infield.

Expect to see Austin Kearns as an outfield replacement. Although his batting average last year was below the Mendoza line (.195), Kearns has proven to, at least, be an asset in the field.

Starting Rotation

It is clear pitching coach Tim Belcher has his work cut out for him. This season, pitching will be where the Indians should struggle the most.  The starting rotation should be Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona, Justin Masterson, David Huff and Aaron Laffey. The first three spots are locked up by Westbrook, Carmona and Masterson, but four and five are still up for grabs. This is a young rotation, and clearly many of these starters still need time to develop. They are going to need to rely on Westbrook and Carmona to pitch well, but the rest of the rotation still remains shaky.

Westbrook returns from nearly two years off due to Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. Listed as the opening day starter, it is unclear if Jake can step into the number one role as a team leader Cleveland so desperately needs. Westbrook becomes a free agent at the end of the season so a long-term contract is on the line. The Indians are hoping he can perform like he did before surgery (1.15 WHIP and 3.12 ERA).

Carmona returns from a dismal season that saw him go just 5-12 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.76 WHIP before being sent down to A-ball. The Indians hope to help get him back to his performance level of 2007 (3.06 ERA). Belcher needs to focus on making Carmona into the ace that he was originally projected to be. Success means a solid number two option.

Masterson is the likely number three man. Acquired in the Victor Martinez trade, Masterson recorded a 4.52 ERA  and 1.45 WHIP, primarily as a reliever last year. Belcher needs to ensure Masterson is starter-ready in spring training. His endurance will be tested this season.

Huff is on track for the # 4 spot. He registered 11 wins, a 5.61 ERA, and 1.56 WHIP, and needs to give up less hits this season if he wants to secure his starting spot.

Laffey earned his spot last year but consistency remains an issue. Last season he was up and down with a 4.44 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. A repeat is exactly what the Indians do not need.

Bullpen

Kerry Woods once again is the closer. The Indians look to get what they paid for. With a weak rotation, the Indians will rely heavily on Woods and the bullpen. Kerry could find himself on the trading block if the Indians find themselves out of the playoff race.

Chris Perez was traded from St. Louis last July and pitched 32 innings for the Indians during the second half of the season. His solid 1.08 WHIP looks like it will ensure Perez has a vital (possibly late-inning) role.

Right-hander Joe Smith has a firm grip on a bullpen spot. Smith came to the Indians last year from the Mets and put up respectable numbers in limited innings.

Lefty Tony Sipp, who signed last February, was called up to the Indians’ mid-season. Upon arrival from Columbus, Sipp whiffed 48 and notched 10 holds with a WHIP of 1.30.

Rafael Perez, a member of the Indians squad since 2006, is likely to be another set-up guy for the Tribe. Rafael was sent down to the minors and recalled last year, ending with a scary 7.31 ERA in the majors. Perez showed some life in Winter Ball (0.33 era) and should get another look this spring.

Right-handed pitcher Saul Rivera played for the Nationals under Manny Acta. Last year, Rivera struggled with a 6.10 ERA in 38.1 innings. In years past, his ERA hovered around the 3.4 to 3.9 range. If Saul can get back on track, expect to see the Indians utilize him more often than he was in ‘09.

With the bullpen spots nowhere near locked up, another solid option is right-hander Jensen Lewis. He has struggled off and on with Indians, especially after moving to the set-up role, but he is another guy who has been in the system awhile. If he can perform as he did in the closer’s role in 2008, Lewis could be a solid addition to the bullpen.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE CLEVELAND INDIANS…

Breakthrough Performance…

Asdrubal Cabrera

Now that it appears Cabrera is going to own the shortstop position, expect him to start living up to the hype. I’m expecting him to have a breakout year both offensively and defensively. His batting stats were on the rise last year, and his new spot at the top of the order demonstrates the Tribe’s faith in him. Perhaps it’s the lucky necklace made by his wife, but I see big things for Cabrera in 2009.

Ready to Rebound…

Grady Sizemore

Last year, Grady was just not the Grady that Indians fans had come to count on. Batting. .242, well below his average for his career (.275), Grady disappointed before an elbow injury interrupted his 2009. The new order which places Sizemore second gives Grady ample opportunity to create and drive in runs for his team.

Ready to Disappoint…

The Starting Rotation

There isn’t an individual to be blamed or named here, it’s a group effort. While individually each pitcher in the starting rotation seems somewhat respectable, five respectable pitchers do not make a whole.  Without aces to rely on, this group will struggle through the season and rely heavily on relief from the bullpen, which fortunately, does have some young talent. It’s also a young group, aside from Westbrook, with a seemingly bright future. Just not in 2010.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Jake Westbrook does not immediately return to the Jake Westbrook of old. Out of the game nearly a year and a half, Westbrook played some rehab games in Puerto Rico, but time has yet to tell if he will fully bounce back to his old level of performance. To do so, he would need to remain 100% healthy, and that is more difficult with the weight of a rotation on your back.

Be Shocked If…

The Indians pitching rotation finds its rhythm and is able to produce five guys capable of tossing a quality start each time out. The depth of the rotation is minimal and young, expect a lot of calls to the bullpen.

Rock Steady…

Russell Branyan

There has been a lot of debate as to whether the Branyan addition was a smart move or not for the Tribe. Do I think it was necessary? No. Do I think that Branyan can be relied upon to deliver runs offensively and manage first base effectively? Absolutely. Branyan is coming off a terrific season and returning to a team he knows well. Expect him to contribute consistently. Even if he doesn’t repeat last year, he will be an asset.

Achilles Heel…

Injuries to Pitchers

With an already shaky rotation, an injury to a Westbrook, Carmona or Masterson would be devastating. The Indians have a decent bullpen for backup, but not a ton of options to step into starting roles.

In the Next Three Years…

The Indians are very much a team in development so the next three years look brighter for Cleveland.  With some solid prospects on the way, and not a ton of money locked into long-term contracts, they have talent building and growing in the minors and the majors. Should the Indians continue to grow players organically, they may have a chance for, at the very least, a playoff appearance at the later end of the three year projection.

Goosebumps Moment…

While Indians fans can’t really expect to see a huge amount of W’s, they do have a good chance of being thrilled by some great offensive baseball. With potentials sluggers like Choo, Sizemore, Branyan and LaPorta, fans can get excited to see a lot of hard hit balls, a healthy amount of homers and plenty of runs.

OHIO!

While that arcane reference goes sailing over your head like a pre-glasses Ricky Vaughn fastball, we need to remind you that BDD has been doing these previews all week and will continue until we’re blue in the face (or until all 30 teams are covered!) Tomorrow Michael Street returns from the desert with all the information on this year’s Diamondbacks. Oh! And here are those other previews in case you’re just joining us.

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