Posted by Brian Joseph on Thursday, March 4, 2010 at 10:53 am

“Orange Jesus” has arrived and brought a few of his playmates from camp to Baltimore. Kevin Millwood and Garrett Atkins were brought in to be camp counselor and help the young Orioles learn to make fire, chop wood and melt S’mores perfectly. Ok, it’s more fun than it sounds but the exciting young Rays team of ‘07 conquered baseball’s toughest division, this Orioles team hopes to do the same. Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for 2010, position breakdowns and more on this year’s Baltimore Orioles.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

‘09 Record: 64-98, 5th in AL East
Pythagorean Record: 69-93 (-5)
Current PECOTA Projection: 79-83 (4th in AL East)

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2009 Review

Let’s be honest, the 2009 Orioles weren’t expected to do much. While the most optimistic predictors had the club finishing no higher than 4th in the AL East, it’s likely that even 64 wins fell short of some of the more pessimistic calls.

Even a 64-win season can be positive when it also marked the debut of a number of faces expected to be the future of the franchise — Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Brad Bergesen, Nolan Reimold (to name a few). Those debuts helped overlook a 20-40 finish and a Dave Trembley return as manager despite a second straight second half collapse.

2010 Outlook

With the arrival of a wealth of young talent, Orioles President of Baseball Operations Andy MacPhail feels the Orioles are out of “phase one” of their rebuilding process. What does that mean for the Orioles? For one thing, it means another decline in the win column would be a failure.

What does that mean for Trembley, in the last year of his contract as skipper?

“”Where we are now in my estimation is we’re going to move back to the more traditional criteria of evaluating managers. Wins and losses. It may not always be fair, things happen. But I’d like to think we’re out of that first phase of what we hoped to do and did accomplish,” said MacPhail.

How much improvement is expected?

“What that means we’ll see in the context of the time. But something comparable to what we’ve endured for two years is not what I’m thinking. But I’m not going to give you a number.”

What MacPhail is likely referring to is the team’s back-to-back collapses in the second half of the season with their worst month being September where the Trembley-led Orioles are 11-40 over two seasons. There are also concerns over the club’s overall inconsistent effort night in and night out and fundamental mistakes on the base paths and in the field.

Surely, this isn’t all the manager’s fault — especially with a young nucleus — but entering his third year, Trembley will no longer get a mulligan if the effort isn’t there and there’s not some improvement in the W-L record. Then again, another decline in the W-L column is likely to give the Orioles 100 losses and few managers survive that type of performance.

Can Trembley right the ship? There’s enough talent in Baltimore for there to be talk of ending a 12-year run of losing seasons. Sure, no one sane is putting the young O’s ahead of the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays but less than 70 wins or another year in the AL East basement might spell the end for Trembley… even if MacPhail won’t give a number.

2010 Team

Catcher

One of those young beacons of hope, Matt Wieters starts his second season and will see his first Opening Day. One year removed from his nearly unreachable PECOTA projection, jokes like these may have outlived their 15 minutes since Wieters appears to be the real deal. He started slow and failed to knock the cover off the ball or shatter any stadium lights but his solid second half has few doubting Wieters is for real.

When kryptonite saps Wieters’ strength, the winner of the three man battle for the backup will play. In the mix are Chad Moeller, Michel Hernandez and Craig Tatum. Moeller has the veteran knowledge the team is looking for to continue Wieters’ development into a full-fledged star but either could wrestle away the role with a hot spring.

Infield

With the departure of the longest-tenured Oriole (Melvin Mora) and the team’s 2008 MVP (Aubrey Huff), the corners expect to look different in Baltimore. Garrett Atkins and Miguel Tejada were added to replace the two. Atkins arrives from Colorado where he suffered through a disappointing 2009 season and hopes to find his stroke again. Tejada returns after a two-year stint in Houston but will now convert to third base, a position he has never played in his 13-year career.

Up the middle, the team looks the same. Brian Roberts will play second and return to the lead-off spot in the lineup. The club’s MVP in 2009 set a major league record for doubles by a switch-hitter with 56. A fourth 50-double season would make Roberts only the second player in major league history (Tris Speaker is the other) to have four or more 50-double seasons. Gold Glove caliber short stop Cesar Izturis returns for his second year in Oriole orange. After Izturis a homer in his Oriole debut, they didn’t get much from him offensively, nor did they expect to.

Outfield

2110 Eutaw Street lives in center and right field of Camden Yards where Adam Jones and Nick Markakis should be fixtures for years to come. Jones grabbed a Gold Glove and impressed in the first half offensively before slipping in the second half and missing the last month of the season with a bum ankle. Markakis took a step backward in 2009 but still put up solid numbers. Having played all but 7 games over the last 3 seasons, we’re willing to chalk up Markakis’ slippage to him just being tired.

In left field, Nolan Reimold is penciled in on the depth chart but should face some competition from Felix Pie for playing time. Reimold impressed in his rookie campaign but missed time in the second half due to injury, the elephant in the room when it comes to him. Pie caught fire in Reimold’s absence after rumors of his potential release followed a slow start. Patience from the Orioles paid off and now they must find time in an already crowded outfield for the former top prospect.

Designated Hitter

While there’s a chance Luke Scott will get some playing time in left field and even first base, expect the lefty to be the club’s primary DH. When Scott is hot (6 home runs in 4 games in May), he’s hot… and when he’s not (a 5-for-38 stretch at the end of July into August where, for 10 consecutive games, Scott failed to notch an RBI), he’s not. Streakier than Old School’s Frank The Tank, Scott should shine and slump in equal segments.

Bench

Keeping those on the pine fresh will be one of the more challenging assignments for Trembley. Ty Wigginton, Felix Pie and even Robert Andino could compete for serious playing time on most teams. Wigginton is expected to back up at the corners and maybe take a few hacks at DH while Pie will spell the outfielders. Andino is Izturis light (Is that even possible?) but capable of giving a day off in the middle infield positions. A backup catcher will also be available and, if the Orioles keep a fifth bench player, that assignment is likely to go to Lou Montanez.

Starting Rotation

Jeremy Guthrie struggled as the “ace” of the staff in 2009 and never really was comfortable in his “crown” (Even if it was one of those you get during a lunch rush at Burger King). Enter Kevin Millwood. The veteran hurler was added to be the club’s number 1 and ease the workload on a bullpen expected to be taxed by a back end of the rotation filled with young arms worthy of being protected. Millwood, 35, will also be counted on to mentor the Orioles’ electric youth.

A Billy Butler line drive sent Brad Bergesen’s impressive rookie season to an odd end and 2010 started off equally freakish as the sophomore injured his arm filming a commercial for the Orioles for MASN Sports. While Bergesen seems to be on track to be ready for Opening Day, all ladders and mirrors have been removed from the vicinity of his locker.

Future ace Brian Matusz is solidly locked into the fourth starter role. We won’t hesitate to throw his name on the short list of AL Rookie of the Year candidates. (Note: Neither Andrew Bailey nor Chris Coghlan would have been on the short list for Rookie of the Year in 2009).

One of the pieces found in the Erik Bedard treasure chest, Chris Tillman, is the favorite to be the Orioles fifth starter. A stiff back has him easing into spring training but there’s no cause for concern yet. If Tillman turns out to be not ready, David Hernandez and Jason Berken should be recovered from the whiplash they suffered in 2009. Both are slated to start the year in AAA but could make the Opening Day roster if there’s an injury. Jake Arrieta, Brandon Erbe and Zach Britton need more seasoning but don’t rule out a call-up at some point in 2010. There’s also Alfredo Simon who is returning from Tommy John surgery. He’s not in the plans but early spring training chatter says he looks good (but don’t they all in February?).

Bullpen

After the Jim Johnson experiment imploded, the Orioles knew he belonged back in the setup role. The broken Bunsen burner and cracked test tube cost the club $12 million for 2 years of Mike Gonzalez. Not only does Gonzalez bring an unusual wind-up to Camden Yards, he brings a track record of success getting batters from both sides of the plate out and solid results in closing duties.

If Gonzalez or Johnson fails, the heir apparent is Koji Uehara. The Birdland faithful were “Koji Krazy” after his spectacular debut conquered the Yankees but injury and stamina limited Uehara to 66-2/3 innings of work and ended his season in June. He’ll be available for multiple innings out of the bullpen and is the backup closer/setup man, if he can stay healthy himself.

With the club likely to carry 7 bullpen arms, Matt Albers, Mark Hendrickson, Kam Mickolio, Dennis Sarfate, Will Ohman and Cla Meredith are the top candidates to round out the relief. While Hernandez and Berken were early thoughts on most people’s minds when it came to long relief options, the re-signing of Hendrickson and talk of keeping the young arms stretched out puts those two on the long shot list to work out of the bullpen.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE BALTIMORE ORIOLES…

Breakthrough Performance…

Brian Matusz

While there’s a lot of optimism about this Orioles team, if the AL East were a horse race, this club wouldn’t even get many “Show” bets. This type of environment for an arm with high expectations to begin his first full season in could be the perfect storm to have Matusz impress. His four-pitch repertoire includes nasty breaking stuff, a fastball capable of touching 94 and a change-up that some consider above-average. We’ll look for second starter results from the club’s fourth starter.

Ready to Rebound…

Koji Uehara

Stubbornness and necessity pushed the Orioles to continue to use Uehara in the rotation. When healthy, he was very effective but that wasn’t often. His batting line against jumped from .202/.224/.337 to .292/.327/.438 from the first trip to the second trip through the lineup. All signs point to Uehara being better suited to work out of the bullpen and he’s an excellent contigency plan for a Johnson or Gonzalez failure.

Ready to Disappoint…

Garrett Atkins

If you find a toaster in the trash and it doesn’t work, are you really that upset? Well, when you paid $4 million for that toaster and could have scored a Nick Johnson for about the same or Russell Branyan at a third of the cost and both not only failed to burn the toast last year but heated up some bagels, too… someone not named Garrett is likely to assume the first base role before season’s end if our read is spot on.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Dave Trembley’s attempt to introduce fundamentals and discipline into his repertoire in his third season with the club mirrors Manny Acta’s attempt to do the same in D.C. last season. While the results might not be as failed as Acta’s were in Washington (this team is more talented), tightening the reigns is never easy.

Be Shocked If…

The Orioles finish anywhere other than fourth. They might flirt with .500, they might not win 70 but, either way, they look firmly entrenched into that fourth place spot in the American League East.

Rock Steady…

Nick Markakis

Some saw Markakis’ offensive slip in 2009 as a cause for concern. This writer is willing to chalk it up as an everyday player finally showing signs of fatigue (the losing probably didn’t help, either). Once a 20-20 threat, he’s capable of hitting those numbers should rumors of Markakis’ work on base running prove to be true. Either way, he’ll continue to control the running game from right field with his cannon where he helped the Orioles to an American League high 36 outfield assists (13 were his!).

Achilles Heel…

Inexperience

Anyone who has watched the National Geographic Channel has seen it — a baby bird is pushed out of the nest and fails to fly. It’s easy to be optimistic but, realistically, the projected Opening Day roster has 12 players younger than 27 and 5 players younger than 25. And should they break a wing, the backup plan are all baby birds, too.

In the Next Three Years…

While there’s still some doubt Andy MacPhail can finish (see Cubs, Chicago), it’s not like he hasn’t (see Twins, Minnesota) before. His strategy of growing arms and spending for offense looks to be on target to get the Orioles back on the winning side of things. The growing list of available arms for this rotation even gives the Orioles some room for failure although there’s not much forgiveness in baseball’s best division. The nucleus is there to finally see a better than .500 season in Baltimore in the next three years with an outside chance at a playoff run with a little luck and some decent free agent moves.

Goosebumps Moment…

Even with attendance at an all-time low at Camden Yards, the ones that do show up continue to provide one of those moments at ballparks that are both unexpected and special. During the National Anthem, the Birdland faithful shout “Ohhhhhh!” when the chosen Star Spangled crooner gets to “Oh say does that…” in the song. For the uninitiated, it’s startling… for the veterans, it means it’s time for Orioles Magic.

Tomorrow’s Royals preview will be chock full of Craig Brown’s optimism. Sure, you won’t find much of it but the guy’s been a Royals fan for his entire life, how much can be left after a 25-year playoff absence? Don’t forget to check out our previous previews (say that 10 times fast!):

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