Posted by David Golebiewski on Wednesday, March 3, 2010 at 2:57 am

The names have changed but the Pittsburgh Pirates are still one of baseball’s worst teams. Five of the eight position players that took the field Opening Day 2009 are gone and another is expected to start the year as a backup. That’s not all bad, though. Ask BDD’s David Golebiewski who sees the changes as a step in the right direction. Sure, Pittsburgh’s last winning season will be old enough to drive this year but there is plenty to be positive about in the town where the Steelers play that also has a baseball team. Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for 2010, position breakdowns and more on this year’s Pittsburgh Pirates.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

’09 Record: 62-99
Pythagorean Record: 67-94 (-5 Differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 72-90 (6th in NL Central)
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2009 Review

After years of signing mediocre veterans via free agency and being penny wise and pound foolish in the amateur draft, the Pirates fully committed to a rebuilding effort, stressing  player development and infusing the major league roster with as much young, cost-controlled talent as possible.

The bold decisions weren’t always popular, but Nate McLouth, Nyjer Morgan, Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, John Grabow and Adam LaRoche were shipped out of town as Pittsburgh looked to stock a farm system that had become perilously thin.

Things got ugly on the field following the whirlwind of trades (24-49 record following the All-Star break). But the dazzling debut of Andrew McCutchen, combined with a willingness to go above-slot in the draft and the opening of a state-of-the-art training complex in the Dominican Republic, gave fans hope.

2010 Outlook

The honeymoon period for newly-acquired players, such as Lastings Milledge, Jeff Clement and Ronny Cedeno, is over. Those former top prospects have fallen from grace and are being afforded another opportunity to prove their worth in a new city. A similar situation presents itself in the starting rotation where Charlie Morton, Kevin Hart and Daniel McCutchen will never get a better chance to shine.

As vexing as it might be to those following a club that hasn’t cracked .500 since Sid Bream slid, the Pirates don’t appear particularly close to contention. The 2010 season figures to be one of experimentation and of finding out which players are capable of forming the nucleus of the next competitive Pittsburgh team.

Much like the squad that he will lead, manager John Russell is entering a pivotal season. No one expects the Pirates to rise much above cellar-dweller status, but team management will surely be keeping a close eye on the development of the club’s young players, and how Russell fosters that development.

Team president Frank Coonley recently told MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch, “We believe that this team can be the team that turns this franchise around.” The organization isn’t expecting miracles, not after the previous regime left the Pirates in such a state of disrepair. But 2010 is supposed to be a year of development, not another aimless season furthering the longest consecutive losing streak in the history of the United States’ “big four” sports.

2010 Team

Catcher

Following a big (and fairly healthy) 2008 season, Ryan Doumit inked a long-term deal that bought out his arbitration years and possibly two years of free agency. Unfortunately, a right wrist injury that required surgery assailed his 2009 campaign. You name it, Doumit has sprained, strained or broke it at some point: hamstring in 2006, wrist and ankle in 2007, thumb in 2008… the list goes on. As a catcher, his bat is an asset. But playing the most physically demanding position on the field exacerbates his durability issues.

As such, Pittsburgh’s backup backstop figures to get a decent chunk of playing time. Jason Jaramillo looks to hold off non-roster invitee Luke Carlin for the job. Jaramillo has little pop, but does a decent job of controlling the strike zone and managed not to embarrass himself when Doumit went down last year.

Infield

Jeff Clement was once the darling of the Mariners system as a lefty-swinging catcher with ample power. Achy knees and questionable defensible scouting reports have likely resigned him to first base for good. At that high-powered position, Clement is just another face in the crowd (PECOTA projects a mild .242/.332/.425 line). At the other corner, Andy LaRoche quietly turned in a productive 2009 season. No one attribute about his game stands out but LaRoche’s combination of average offense and slick defense makes him a solid starter.

It’s only a matter of time until Pedro Alvarez takes over one of the corner spots and LaRoche has acclimated himself well at third. Clement needs a strong start to the season.

With Sanchez and Wilson now on the West Coast, Pittsburgh’s double-play combo will feature Akinori Iwamura at second base and either Ronny Cedeno or Bobby Crosby at shortstop. Picked up from the Rays in an off-season trade, Iwamura is a decent defender whose patient approach at the plate is a welcome addition toward the top of Pittsburgh’s lineup. A right knee injury requiring surgery cut into Iwamura’s ’09 season but he returned in August and doesn’t figure to be limited moving forward. The competition between Cedeno and Crosby would have been much more intriguing half a decade ago. Cedeno has gotten the bat knocked out of his hands in the majors while Crosby is injury-prone and near replacement-level since 2005. Regardless of who wins the spot, the Bucs will likely have one of the weakest starting shortstops in the big leagues.

Outfield

Now on his third organization, left fielder Lastings Milledge will need to stop living off of his prospect pedigree and produce in 2010. Milledge has shown a lack of plate discipline and while a broken finger and subsequent surgery might explain his power outage last year, he must put more of a charge into the ball. PECOTA expects a .278/.344/.422 triple-slash next season.

Center field will be Andrew McCutchen’s domain for years to come. The 2005 first-rounder made a seamless transition to the majors, displaying a strong plate approach and more extra-base thump than one would expect from his smallish frame. His minor league track record suggests that he might not lace quite so many balls over the fence or into the gaps (.281/.363/.439 PECOTA projection). But with plus defense and speed, McCutchen is the sort of player with whom a team can win championships.

Where did this Garrett Jones guy come from? The big lefty batter took three years to get out of rookie ball, was released by the Braves, and spent seven largely uneventful seasons in the Twins system. After a wholly unexpected bit of mashing in the ‘Burgh, Jones will get a chance to hold down right field for the Pirates, hoping to prove that he isn’t just a Shane Spencer doppelganger. If Jones turns into a pumpkin, prospects Jose Tabata or Gorkys Hernandez could enter the fold.

Bench

Delywyn Young is a switch-hitter with experience at second base and in the outfield corners. His lack of fluidity in the infield is part of what precipitated the Iwamura deal. Infielder Ramon Vazquez had fall-down range prior to his off-season knee surgery. His role figures to be minimal next season. A 2004 first-rounder, Neil Walker will look to crack the roster based on his switch-hitting and position versatility; hopes of his becoming a franchise building block have faded. Steve Pearce is an OK hitter with neither the bat for first base nor the range for the outfield.

In the outfield, Ryan Church offers good range and average offense when healthy. Rule V pick John Raynor will try to use his wheels to stick as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner. Brandon Moss didn’t hit in 2009 and his chances of being more than a fourth outfielder are growing dim. Claimed off waivers from the Braves, Brandon Jones offers a Church-like skill-set.

Starting Rotation

Paul Maholm doesn’t fit anyone’s conception of an “ace,” but the lefty walks few batters and exhibits strong groundball tendencies. Zach Duke offers the same attributes, though with even fewer whiffs and free passes. As pitchers who put the ball in play often, Maholm and Duke are often subject to the quality of the defenders behind them. LaRoche and Iwamura figure to be solid at third and second, respectively, but the winner of the shortstop competition and Clement will play a non-trivial role in how Pittsburgh’s southpaws perform.

Ross Ohlendorf displayed sharp control and missed more bats in the second half as he went to his slider more often. He’ll have to maintain that boost in K’s to stave off regression, though. Ohlendorf’s peripherals suggested an ERA in the mid-four’s, compared to his actual 3.92 mark. Catch Charlie Morton on a good night, and you’ll come away impressed: low-90’s gas, supplemented with a big hook. However, he needs to find the strike zone more frequently and find a pitch to keep lefties from drubbing him.

Kevin Hart and Daniel McCutchen will compete for the fifth starter’s spot. No team goes through a season using just starters 1-5, though, so both figure to get the ball at times. Hart has better pure stuff, but McCutchen has the better minor league track record and is stingy with the walks. Also look for prospects Brad Lincoln and Tim Alderson, as well as reclamation project Donald Veal, to enter the discussion during the 2010 season.

Bullpen

The Pirates non-tendered Matt Capps during the off-season and inked Octavio Dotel to take over the ninth-inning role. Dotel continues to punch out scores of batters, though his control comes and goes. He could be a mid-season trade chip.

Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek were expected to battle for the set-up role but Hanrahan’s sore elbow could put him behind as spring training kicks off. Both are plenty capable of inducing swings and misses, but both will also give Russell heartburn as they load up the bases via ball four.

Brendan Donnelly, D.J. Carrasco and Javier Lopez were all signed to free agent deals. Donnelly has rarely been healthy in recent years, though he did pitch well for the Marlins in ‘09. Chris Jakubauskas was a waiver claim from Seattle. Jose Ascanio is working his way back from shoulder surgery, and hard-throwing prospect Ramon Aguero could be a dark horse candidate to make the team. Non-roster invitees Brian Bass, Brian Burres, Neal Cotts, Craig Hansen, Steven Jackson, Jeff Karstens, Jack Taschner and Tyler Yates are also in camp.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE PITTSBURGH PIRATES…

Breakthrough Performance…

Charlie Morton

A 26 year-old right-hander, Morton drove scouts batty as a prospect with the Braves. His stuff was big league-caliber (a groundball-inducing two-seamer and a big-breaking curveball) but shoddy control held him back. Morton seemed to turn a corner in Triple-A (8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 in 150.2 IP), and if he can develop a passable changeup, he could emerge as an above-average starter. PECOTA projects a 4.32 ERA in 155 innings, with 6.4 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9.

Ready to Rebound…

Ryan Doumit

That is, of course, if Doumit doesn’t suffer yet another debilitating injury. Playing with a bum wrist, Doumit expanded his strike zone last year. That free-swinging, combined with some lousy luck on balls put in play, led to a sub-.300 OBP. A healthy (healthier?) Doumit could resume being a quality player at a position where offense is in short supply.

Ready to Disappoint…

Garret Jones

Not many minor league lifers in their late twenties come up to the majors and suddenly perform better than ever. Jones, 28, owns a career .265/.321/.463 line at the Triple-A level. PECOTA is justifiably skeptical of Mr. Jones’ chances of becoming a big star, forecasting a .252/.320/.439 showing in 2010. Perhaps some of his improvement last season was legitimate, but he’s due for plenty of regression nonetheless.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

The Pirates again spend big on the amateur draft, while also becoming bigger players in the international player market. No club has dished out more cash in the draft over the past two years, as new management realizes that doling out a few extra hundred-thousand dollars now can lead to millions of dollars in surplus value (what a player’s production is worth on the free agent market minus his actual salary) in the years that follow. Pittsburgh isn’t merely playing lip service to player development: the guys in charge know the immense value of players with 0-6 years of major league service time.

Be Shocked If…

The Bucs break that losing streak that has persisted through Bill Clinton and George W. Bush’s two presidential terms each and is now into the Barack Obama era. Pittsburgh’s offense appears tepid, and the starting rotation lacks an arm capable of dominating games.

Rock Steady…

Andrew McCutchen

From the moment of his call-up, McCutchen became the face of the franchise. His all-around talents give the Pirates a home-grown star to build around. Expectations are great following his rookie season, but the 23 year-old is the consummate five-tool player.

Achilles Heel…

Shortstop

Cedeno is projected to hit .255/.311/.394 next year, and that would actually be a massive improvement over his career .240/.280/.346 line. Crosby (.246/.319/.380 PECOTA triple-slash) has a similarly depressing forecast. The Pirates will keep an eye on the waiver wire and the trade front, while hoping that prospect Chase d’Arnaud can remain at shortstop in the long term.

In the Next Three Years…

We’ll find out if GM Neal Huntington’s daring trades paid off. The most debatable deals were the ones sending McLouth, a two- to- three win player under team control through 2011 (2012 option) to Atlanta, and Nyjer Morgan, a phenomenal defender who won’t be arbitration-eligible until 2011, to Washington. Pittsburgh surrendered plenty of surplus value in the present, hoping that the likes of Morton, Hernandez, Jeff Locke and Milledge will blossom.

The farm system doesn’t have much high-ceiling talent outside of Alvarez, but catcher Tony Sanchez is on the fast track, and the pitching depth is greatly improved. For the first time in years, there are quality prospects at both the upper and lower levels of the system. The chances of the club breaking that ignominious losing streak next season are razor thin, but they should be able to do it by 2012.

The Pedro Alvarez Watch…

For the second straight year, the Pirates will break in an elite position prospect. The second overall pick in the 2008 draft, Pedro Alvarez batted a combined .288/.378/.535 between High-A Lynchburg and Double-A Altoona. Alvarez, a 6-3, 235 pound lefty hitter, possesses monstrous power. Don’t expect to see him until a couple months into the season, however, as Pittsburgh will likely stagger his service time to avoid an eventual Super Two situation.

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While you have to wait until tomorrow for Brian Joseph’s Orioles preview, you can always go back and read Jeff Lubbers’ Nationals preview listed below… or grab a Matt Wieters Fact to get you in the mood — Once, Matt Wieters Hit A Home Run That Only Measured 400 Feet… But It Landed In The Year 2078!

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