Posted by Jeff Lubbers on Tuesday, March 2, 2010 at 8:22 am

We don’t know how the weather was at the beginning of March in your area but BDD’s Team Preview series comes in like a lamb with Jeff Lubbers’ preview of the 103-loss Washington Nationals. That’s 103 losses in back-to-back seasons, by the way. Manny Acta is gone but Lubbers isn’t as he returns for his second season previewing baseball’s worst team. Don’t worry, we removed the sharp objects and hid Jeff’s belt before he got to writing. Read on for a quick look back at last year, the outlook for 2010, position breakdowns and more on this year’s Washington Nationals.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

‘09 Record: 59-103, 5th in NL East
Pythagorean Record: 64-98 (+5 differential)
Current PECOTA Projection: 76-86 (5th in NL East)
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2009 Review

The last place Nationals found themselves in the news often in 2009 — for both right and wrong reasons.

On the plus side, Ryan Zimmerman celebrated his 5-year contract extension with a 30-game hitting streak in April and May. In June, the team drafted Stephen Strasburg, the most “can’t miss” of all “can’t miss” prospects. To end the season, the team finished with a 7-game winning streak, prompting the team to remove the “interim” tag from Manager Jim Riggelman’s title. The respectable 33-42 record after the All-Star break with Riggelman at the helm didn’t hurt, either.

Conversely, the team’s jersey mishap in April, while embarrassing, perhaps received more attention than it should have because of the team’s perpetual ineptitude. The drafting of Strasburg was followed by months of speculation as to whether the team would meet Strasburg’s agent Scott Boras’s contractual demands (they reached an agreement in August nowhere near the $50 million Boras supposedly said Strasburg deserved). And Manny Acta was given the dead man walking treatment as speculation as to his eventual firing surrounded him for weeks before the deed was done.

All in all the Nationals finished with the worst record in baseball for the second straight year and became only team to post triple-digit losses in both seasons.

2010 Outlook

Despite all of the team’s previous shortcomings, Nationals fans have reason to be cautiously optimistic for perhaps the first time since their existence in the nation’s capital. Though the widely-regarded best player in the organization (Strasburg) will likely start the season in the minors, there is reason to believe the team will reduce the losses to double digits for the first time since 2007.

It could be argued that, during the off-season, the team was misguided in primarily signing players well past their prime (a valid criticism). However, the Nationals have brought in free agents expected to make significant contributions to the team for the second consecutive off-season (Adam Dunn last year, Jason Marquis and Adam Kennedy, among others this year). This bodes well for the team’s future ability to blend homegrown talent (Ryan Zimmerman, Steven Strasburg) with smart free agent signings in a division potentially competitive from top to bottom.

2010 Team

Catcher

Unfortunately for the Nationals catcher of the future, Jesus Flores, will not likely be ready for the start of the 2010 season due to continued shoulder troubles from 2009. Flores’s setback makes the team’s signing of Ivan Rodriguez look a little less ridiculous (though was two years truly necessary?), as Rodriguez looks to extend his Hall of Fame career with his fifth team in less than two years. Rodriguez will provide at best a marginal offensive improvement over the .666 OPS posted by Nationals’ catchers in ’09.

Infield

Though he failed to hit at least 40 home runs for the first time since 2003, first baseman Adam Dunn provided a constant presence in a strong Nationals’ lineup in ’09. However, the team’s plan to hide his defensive deficiencies at first base did not turn out.  For first basemen logging at least 500 defensive innings, Dunn’s defense (-25.0 UZR/150) was by far the worst in the National League. Dunn fully admitted never being comfortable at the position when he assumed full time duties following the trade of Nick Johnson. While Dunn’s defensive (in)abilities are barely tolerable, he continues to mash the ball at the plate.

Though on the wrong side of 30 (34 years old on Opening Day), free agent signing Adam Kennedy is an upgrade over the seven different players who saw playing time at second base for the Nationals in 2009. The team hopes Kennedy produces as he did in 2009 for the Athletics (101 OPS+) as opposed to his previous three seasons (75+).

Christian Guzman remains the likely Opening Day shortstop. This, however, may have more to do with the fact that the team is paying him $8 million and that he is the incumbent and incumbents with $8 million contracts are simply the starters, no questions asked. Following a comeback season in 2008, Guzman’s production dropped in 2009. At some point, the team may decide to eat Guzman’s contract for the year and see if prospect Ian Desmond can handle full time duties.

Ryan Zimmerman followed two straight years of decline by winning the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Awards for third basemen (both deserved) in 2009. With Zimmerman’s breakout year and the Nationals’ rising fortunes, it seems as if Zimmerman may yet see meaningful (playoff?) games at some point during his tenure with the team.

Outfield

Though not as offensively productive as the infield, the team’s outfield remains underrated.

In right field, the team is still banking on the promise of Elijah Dukes, who for his part has remained out of trouble during his entire tenure in Washington. However, his 2009 season was rather unproductive (93 OPS+). 2010 could be Dukes’ last chance to prove his worth. He will also have to improve on the basepaths, where his 2 steals in 12 attempts was the second worst stolen base total for a player with at least 10 caught stealing going back to 1982.

2009 mid-season acquisition Nyjer Morgan posted the second-highest UZR/150 (30.8) of all players with at least 500 defensive innings while continuing to show promise at the plate (121 OPS+ in limited action with the Nationals). The early returns on one of General Manager Mike Rizzo’s first big trades are quite encouraging, to say the least.

The team’s left fielder, Josh Willingham, quietly produced another solid season in his first with Washington. While he will never become a star, acquiring players like Willingham is what slowly brings teams from the bottom of the standings to respectability and beyond.

Bench

Willie Harris had another productive season at the plate while filling in at five defensive positions and looks to do the same in 2010. Perennial good-but-not-great prospect Justin Maxwell could see some time in the outfield and Wil Nieves will log time as backup catcher for as long as Flores remains out.

Starting Rotation

For a team that finished second-to-last in the N.L. in ERA for starters in 2009, the team looks to be improved in 2010, though not by a significant amount.

2009 Opening Day starter John Lannan delivered another productive season in relative obscurity, with an ERA under 4.00 to accompany only 9 wins. His strikeout rate remained unimpressive (1.31 K/BB, 3.9 SO/9 in ’09), leading some to wonder if his ERA will finally jump in ’10.

Jason Marquis will, in all likelihood, finally break his 10 year playoff run. For a team whose foray into the free agent market for starting pitchers has largely been aimed at reclamation projects (see Daniel Cabrera, 2009) the Nationals’ signing of an established pitcher who can be not only an innings eater but an effective innings eater will be a boon for the team.

The rest of the rotation has question marks. The loss of 25-year-old Ross Detwiler for up to three months was a setback for a team that is also waiting for the return (perhaps in 2011) of prospect Jordan Zimmermann (Tommy John surgery).

Somewhat to his surprise, Scott Olsen has a spot in the rotation secured if he can prove he’s healthy. This also came as a surprise for those who watched Olsen follow up an overachieving 2008 with a season marred by ineffectiveness and injury.

Not wanting to stray too far from their reclamation project roots, the team signed Chien-Ming Wang and Livan Hernandez to compete for rotation spots in 2010. Results of these signings are likely to be mixed at best.

Garrett Mock, Shawn Estes, Miguel Batista, Shairon Martis, Craig Stammen, and J.D. Martin remain in the mix for rotation spots not filled by those listed above in what appears to be a let-them-all-have-a-tryout strategy for the Nationals.

Bullpen

For a team that produced the worst ERA and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) in the National League (by almost a half run), the Nationals need all the help they can get.

While he will not lead the league in saves, the Nationals deserve credit for signing a closer coming off a down year as opposed to overpaying for one (as still seems to be the trend across baseball) as Matt Capps will likely prove to be a shrewd signing.

Riggelman also expects off-season acquisition Brian Bruney and 2009 acquisition Sean Burnett to be prepared to pitch in the ninth.
Reliever-turned-starter-turned-reliever Jason Bergmann (4.50 ERA in ’09) will continue to log innings from the bullpen, as will 40-year old Ron Villone (4.25 ERA in ’09), currently with his 14th team in his major league career.

AROUND THE HORN WITH THE WASHINGTON NATIONALS…

Breakthrough Performance…

Nyjer Morgan

Morgan already started turning some heads in 2009 but an increased awareness of defensive metrics across the sport will ensure that many take notice of his play. His .398 BABIP with the Nationals will be unsustainable, however.

Ready to Rebound…

Matt Capps

Capps’ three straight quality seasons from 2006-08 are likely more indicative of his true talent than his disastrous 2009.

Ready to Disappoint…

Christian Guzman

Fans have alternated between chanting “Boooo” and Guuuuz” for the past five years and will likely produce the former chant more often for the rest of his Nationals’ career.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Ivan Rodriguez is moved at the trade deadline for the third consecutive year while the Nationals agree to pay for most of the remainder of his contract.

Be Shocked If…

Ryan Zimmerman fails to replicate his 2009 season with the bat and glove (Though maybe he’ll only get a hit in 25 straight games).

Rock Steady…

Livan Hernandez

Now that he has a roster spot secured, all of the professional projections systems have Hernandez producing nearly identical and consistent, unspectacular, results.

Achilles Heel…

Back of the Rotation

While many teams have questions surrounding the back of their rotation, bringing in so many candidates rarely bodes well for their cumulative performance.

In the Next Three Years…

The Nationals will rely on the upper crust of their farm system to carry the team to .500 and beyond. Other than Strasburg and likely 2010 pick Bryce Harper there is not a whole lot of depth in the farm system, as only two Nationals other than Strasburg currently appear on Baseball America’s top 100 list. On the other hand, Washington could not have picked two better seasons in recent memory in which to be so awful in order to secure the top pick in each draft.

News That Sounded Good But Really Made Fans Slap Their Forehead…

Fans will finally see the workings of a fully-staffed front office. While it might give some reason for newfound hope, it will lead others to wonder why it took six years in Washington to fill it.

Coming Wednesday… David Golebiewski makes the Pittsburgh Pirates walk the preview plank. Arrrrrrrrrrrrghhhhhh!

Mike Rizzo and Stan Kasten photo courtesy of www.picapp.com