Posted by Doug Thorburn on Friday, February 19, 2010 at 9:39 am

 Cue the music from Ennio Morricone, because baseball’s western divisions are fixin’ to host an old-fashioned shoot-out in 2010. The American and National Leagues both look to have wide-open races out west, which could produce some serious drama when the intra-division foes square off in September with the season on the line.

The fiesta starts in the senior circuit, where four of the five teams have a legitimate shot at the division crown. The lone exception is the San Diego Padres, who are firmly entrenched in their rebuilding project under new owner Jeff Moorad, and will likely be drinking alone at the end of the bar until deep into summer.

The NL West lacks a clear powerhouse, and the four teams north of La Jolla all project to fall between 80 and 90 wins this season, according to BP’s latest depth charts. Pre-season projections assume league-wide regression to the mean, so the final standings are likely to shake out with a greater spread among the teams. Early season slumps, streaks, and injuries will change the overall outlook of these clubs as they head into the trading window, having a ripple effect on rosters once buyers and sellers are defined at the deadline.

For contenders, the whole season can rest on the shoulders of a handful of pivotal players. The performance of these select athletes could very well determine which team emerges victorious from the scrum, and who ends up at the bottom of the pile.

The pivotal players break down into three categories: the sustainers, the improvers, and the rebounders. I was itching to reference, “The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly,” but Sergio Leone called, and he wants his idea back.

The sustainers are franchise anchors, and will be counted on to provide a stable foundation to the title hopes of 2010. Sustainers might have some room for improvement, but their teams will be happy with a repeat of last year’s performance. On the other hand, an unforeseen collapse to one of these players would have a devastating impact on the team’s run differential.

The improvers are generally young players on the rise. Having already established themselves in the Majors, they are poised to make a big jump forward and provide a boost to their club’s playoff chances. The improvers are an investment in risk vs. reward, as the potential upside is offset by a risk of decline for these highly volatile players.

The rebounders include ballplayers that have a track record of success, but have struggled in recent seasons. These guys also represent high risk, and could deliver performances on either end of the spectrum, or anywhere in-between. The rebounders don’t have to set the world on fire to have their presence felt in 2010, and even a modest comeback will help the cause. A repeat of 2009 could cost them serious playing time, however, while a return to glory might just be enough to push their club over the edge. 

This is just the tip of the iceberg, with BDD Team Previews coming soon. The contenders are listed in order of 2009 finish, and are accompanied by the records projected by PECOTA for 2010.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers 

2009 W-L: 95-67 (1^st)

2010 W-L: 81-81 (3^rd-tie)

Sustainers: Clayton Kershaw, Jonathan Broxton, Andre Ethier; Manny Ramirez

Improvers: Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley

Rebounders: Rafael Furcal, Russell Martin  

The Dodgers were the heavy favorites heading into 2009, and they delivered under the gun by winning the division with an impressive 95 wins. Despite the success, many projections are down on the Dodgers for 2010. The team lost starter Randy Wolf and second baseman Orlando Hudson to free agency, but neither of these players would have been considered pivotal heading into last season. The Dodgers played about 5-6 games under their Pythagorean record last season, and some regression to their expected pace would help to balance out the loss of Hudson and Wolf. It also won’t hurt to get a full season out of Manny Ramirez, who quietly had the fourth-highest OBP in baseball last season.

The most vulnerable of the sustainers in Chavez Ravine is young lefty Clayton Kershaw, whose immense talent will challenge the coaching staff as he works his way through the injury nexus. Centerfielder Matt Kemp has more in the tank, and the Dodgers will need him to continue his progression into a dynamic franchise player, eventually replacing Manny as the centerpiece of the lineup. Kemp will need baserunners to drive home next season, and that will depend on the ability for Russell Martin and Rafael Furcal to rediscover the their table-setting abilities of the past. The projection is pessimistic about how the Dodgers stack up to the rest of the west, and the ownership situation has soured their outlook in the eyes of many. But I see pretty much the same roster that won it last year, mixed in with plenty of reasons for optimism, and consider them the team to beat out west in 2010.

Colorado Rockies

2009 W-L: 92-70 (2^nd)

2010 W-L: 88-74 (1^st)

Sustainers: Troy Tulowitzki, Brad Hawpe, Ubaldo Jimenez, Todd Helton

Improvers: Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, Ian Stewart

Rebounders: Chris Ianetta

Of all the teams in the west, the projection for the Rockies is the closest to last season’s results. To remain in contention, the Rocks will need Troy Tulowitzki to maintain a triple-slash line that is consistent with his 2009 and 2007 seasons, and hope that he isn’t an odd-year oddity, Saberhagen-style. Todd Helton will need to stay in the lineup and continue to get on base at a 40% clip, while taking advantage of Colorado’s incredibly deep bench to frequently rest his back. Ubaldo Jimenez will be counted on to be a pillar of consistency in the Colorado rotation, though he will need to harness his delivery in order to meet the challenge.

Tulo and Jimenez might still have some room before hitting the ceiling, but sophomores Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez could be in line for the biggest gains in 2010. Gonzalez went haywire in the 2^nd half of last year, and his test will be to produce consistently over the course of a full season. Fowler had a great debut in purple pinstripes, and will look to develop every facet of his 5-tool repertoire this year. The bats will play, but the direction of the Rockies’ season will be decided on the mound. The bullpen is in good shape, but the rotation is shaky beyond Jimenez. Left-hander Jorge De La Rosa took a big step forward to secure his spot on the staff, but he and Jimenez will both need to harness their command in order to reach their potential.

San Francisco Giants

2009 W-L: 88-74 (3^rd)

2010 W-L: 81-81 (3^rd –tie)

Sustainers: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Pablo Sandoval

Improvers: Jonathan Sanchez, Buster Posey, Nate Schierholtz

Rebounders: Edgar Renteria, Freddy Sanchez, Aubrey Huff

The Giants have a triumvirate of cornerstones in place, and are perhaps an impact hitter away from the foundation of a perennial contender. San Francisco fans can expect higher-scoring games in 2010, with more runs crossing the plate on both sides of the scoreboard. The Ambiguously Brave Duo of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are dynamic talents, but they will have a tough time improving on last year’s shiny numbers. The Giants have the youngest sustainers in the division, perhaps the league. The Panda has already established himself as the most feared bat in the lineup, and it’s not even close. The scary part is that he also qualifies as an improver, given what might happen if he learns to be selectively aggressive. His ceiling is very tough to see, what with all the clouds in the way… or that could just be the San Francisco fog.

There are not a lot of players in the improvement category for los Gigantes, with Jonathan Sanchez standing out as the player who could have the most impact in that department. The key for Sanchez is to shave a layer off of his walk rate, and he appears to be a minor mechanical tweak away from such an improvement. Buster Posey is temporarily blocked, but playing him over Bengie Molina could be the quickest way to upgrade the lineup. The Giants do have several players that are candidates for a rebound, though their respective baselines for a comeback are pretty low. San Francisco will simply hope that most of the rebounders can put together a healthy, productive season. If they fail, it will just accelerate the youth movement. More than any team on this list, Giants will go only so far as their sustainers can carry them.

Arizona Diamondbacks

2009 W-L: 70-92 (5^th)

2010 W-L: 84-78 (2^nd)

Sustainers: Mark Reynolds, Dan Haren  

 Improvers: Justin Upton , Stephen Drew, Miguel Montero

 Rebounders: Brandon Webb, Chris B. Young, Conor Jackson

Just call them Team Upside. The D’Backs actually finished a game behind the Padres last season, but the soothsaying machines see huge improvement on the horizon, due to a roster on which nearly every starter has the capacity for more. They have a full stable of young players that have a way to go before reaching their respective ceilings, and even the sustainers have a reasonable shot to improve. The only player that seems in line for a step back is strikeout king Mark Reynolds, but the league could be in trouble if the 26-year old continues his trend of improving ISO and walk rates in every season. Dan Haren is the closest thing to a lock to put up 220 innings of artisan-quality work this side of Roy Halladay, and he could even take a step forward by avoiding the 2^nd-half fades that have plagued the right-hander throughout his career.

The Snakes’ future is heavily invested in a pair of former 1^st round picks, the little-brother tandem of Stephen Drew and Justin Upton. The next few seasons could very well come down to those two players and their ability to make the jump from improvers to sustainers. The spotlight is especially bright on Upton, who could be Kemp-squared in terms of upside. The Diamondbacks have several rebounders in the clubhouse, ranging from the broken Ace to the mercurial outfielder, sandwiched around bouts of valley fever. A return to form by Brandon Webb would easily have the greatest impact of any rebounder in the division, transforming the team’s playoff outlook as well as its rotation. The beta for this team’s final win tally is extremely high, due to the variance in potential outcomes for players like Webb, Chris B. Young, Conor Jackson, Edwin Jackson, Kelly Johnson, and Ian Kennedy. They could finish the season contending for the crown, or they could find themselves cleaning the cellar by September.

The fate of a pivotal player can make or break a season, particularly in a clustered division. The ballclub whose stars are healthy and hitting on all cylinders throughout the season will enjoy the smoothest road to the playoffs, while a breakdown from a vital cog can send the team into a downward spiral. The case is the same in the American League West, where every team in the division could be fighting to play October baseball. Stay tuned.

Colorado Rockies home page photo courtesy of www.picapp.com