Posted by Harry Pavlidis on Wednesday, February 17, 2010 at 11:13 pm

As pitchers and catchers file into camp, many clubs will begin answering questions like “who is our set-up guy?” and “who will hold down our fifth starter’s spot?”

One club tinkering with the end of their rotation will be the Arizona Diamondbacks. After a big trade with Detroit, and the progressing rehabilitation of a former Cy Young winner, four spots appear to be locked out of five. There are at least three men in the mix of the “final” spot, which they’re likely to share as the season progresses.  As they say, your five will be your three at some point — unless you’re exceptionally lucky.

I try to think of a five-man rotation as being comprised of seven pitchers, with a rank order emerging as teams break camp. Or, at the latest, as clubs get past their April off-days and reach the point where it’s time to call-up number five. So, Arizona’s trio of prime candidates should see time in the big league rotation sometime in 2010. Might as well get to know them all.

The Front Four, Now and Then

Things will look a bit different for the D-Backs in 2010, with only one front-line starter returning. Dan Haren will no longer be joined by Doug Davis (signed by Milwaukee), Max Scherzer (traded to Detroit) or Jon Garland (sent to the Dodgers at the non-waiver trade deadline). Instead, it will be Haren and Brandon Webb along with newcomers Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy (acquired in the Scherzer deal from Detroit and the Yankees, respectively).

The “other” starters from 2009 are numerous, and illustrate the point about rotations being longer than five. Webb, Daniel Cabrera, Bryan Augenstein and Kevin Mulvey all got a least one start last year, but Billy Buckner and Yusmeiro Petit got the bulk of the work after the front four. So, in 2009, it was six and “the rest”.

Webb appears healthy and headed back to the front of the rotation. Petit was waived and claimed by Seattle and Cabrera signed by the White Sox. This leaves Buckner, Augenstein and Mulvey to return for 2010. And they are the three top candidates for a shot at the 2010 rotation — and the most likely to be kept in glass in case of an emergency. While the list won’t end at three (Cesar Valdez comes to mind), the drop-off in terms of experience and readiness is substantial after Mulvey.

Scouting the Field

Billy Buckner, Bryan Augenstein and Kevin Mulvey are all right-handed and all with some Major League experience. Buckner (26 years old) brings the longest service time to the table, going back to August of 2007 when Buckner was called up by the Royals and made five starts in seven appearances. In the past two seasons, he’s made 13 starts and 13 relief appearances as a Diamondback.  Augenstein (23) debuted in 2009 and made seven big league appearances (two starts in May, the rest in relief in September). Mulvey (25) made his debut in 2009 as well, but as a Minnesota Twin. After two relief outings in July, the Twins returned Mulvey to AAA Rochester, where he remained until he was one of the players to be named in the Jon Rauch trade. Mulvey moved right into the Arizona bullpen for two appearances, but he was worked into the late-season rotation. Mulvey made four starts to close out the year.

Big league experience is a big plus — for me. It means we have PITCHf/x data to look at for all three pitchers. Mulvey also appeared in the 2007 Futures Game during the All-Star festivities, so there’s a brief snapshot of his stuff going back to the same time frame as Buckner’s debut. Augenstein was featured in the Arizona Fall League, which had two parks (home to three teams) equipped with PITCHf/x systems in 2009. Still, the pile of data for Buckner (2105 pitches) dwarfs Augenstein’s (412) and Mulvey’s (442).

Buckner’s long record adds a significant piece of information — a new pitch in 2009. Buckner threw a cut fastball (or cutter) in 2009 that he had not thrown previously in the Majors.  He added the pitch to an arsenal that already included two fastballs (a four-seamer and a two-seam sinker), a change-up and a somewhat slurvey curveball.

Augenstein has shown just three pitches to date — a sinker, slider and change-up. It’s possible he has (or will) mixed in four-seamer here or there, but all of his fastballs to date appear to be of the sinking, two-seamed, variety.

Mulvey, like Buckner, is a five-pitch pitcher. While Butler mixes his fastballs pretty evenly, Mulvey is far more reliant on the sinker. He also has a change-up and a curveball along with a slider.

As demonstrated by Buckner, young pitchers develop new pitches. Augenstein, the youngest of the group, is far from being a finished product. Still, I will count his lack of variety against him. While his counterparts give batters three speeds to deal with, Augenstein only shows two. In his defense, he does change speeds quite a bit, often blurring the sinker/change-up distinction, but he still doesn’t have that third, slower speed.

While we wait for Augenstein to add a cutter (making the slider the slow ball) or a curve, here are some details on the stuff all three candidates have thrown. For Buckner, the percentage thrown in 2009 is shown in parentheses. Also, these pitch classifications are my own, not the values you see in Gameday.

Pitch Type and Selection

Pitcher	Type	MPH	% v LHH	% v RHH
Augenstein	Sinker	88	59.0	60.3
Augenstein	Change-up	80	20.8	2.6
Augenstein	Slider	78	20.2	37.2
Buckner	Fastball	90	29.6 (25.5)	28.5 (25.4)
Buckner	Sinker	90	32.0 (32.6)	27.5 (27.9)
Buckner	Change-up	83	18.7 (20.2)	10.1 (9.7)
Buckner	Cutter	84	1.1 (1.9)	6.1 (9.2)
Buckner	Curveball	80	18.6 (19.9)	27.9 (27.8)
Mulvey	Fastball	90	13.3	6.1
Mulvey	Sinker	89	44.2	53.4
Mulvey	Change-up	79	5.4	1.4
Mulvey	Slider	82	20.4	33.8
Mulvey	Curveball	76	16.7	5.4

 

Not a power arm in the bunch — Buckner is the only  of the three who has shown the ability to start games and work consistently above 90 mph. Even then, Butler will drop into the upper/mid 80s frequently enough to keep his overall average just above Mulvey’s. In 2009 (not shown), his speed was a touch lower, the effect of starting far more often than relieving.

Augenstein, the softest tosser of the bunch, is a two-pitch pitcher against right-handed batters. He’ll throw the change-up to lefties but hasn’t found a complement against righties. Don’t be surprised if Augenstein is dispatched to the minor leagues and comes back later with a curveball or a cutter.

Buckner’s addition of the cutter gave him something to show right-handed hitters, pulling him away from the hard stuff without much of a change in the use of his off-speed pitches. Against lefties, he remained, essentially, a four-pitch pitcher. His cutter is thrown at slider speed, but doesn’t have the sink you’d expect on a slider. Meanwhile, his curve has some slider characteristics. His cutter/curve combo may better be called a slutter/slurve combo.

Mulvey is essentially a four-pitch guy against lefties, too, although he’s more likely to throw his change than Buckner is to thrown his cutter. Against righties, Mulvey is practically a two-pitch pitcher, just like Augenstein. He does have more to mix in, and does. He also throws the slowest pitch of the group with his mid-70s curveball.

Picking a Horse

While I’ve expressed plenty of doubts about Augenstein, based on his lack of a broad reportoire and a third speed, he has performed well in the minor leagues. He has performed as well, if not better, than Mulvey and Augenstein but at an earlier age. Despite his lack of power, he’s had better strike-out rates, and lower walk rates, than Butler and Mulvey. Still, I have doubts about his ability to carry that over to the next level — at the moment.

So, I’ll go with Buckner to make the club out of Spring Training. Augenstein and Mulvey could be fairly equal contributors — with Mulvey more likely to sit in the Arizona bullpen while Augenstein works every fifth day in AAA. It’s 2011 where Augenstein should easily surpass both Buckner and Mulvey, if not sooner. Based on age and minor league performance, Augenstein should have the most upside in any case.

Keep an eye out for a fourth pitch from Augenstein in the Cactus League — the successful addition of a new pitch may be the catalyst to put him ahead of Buckner in 2010. Short of being hurt or clearly out-pitched, I’ll give the edge to Buckner. For now.

Billy Buckner photo courtesy of www.picapp.com