When A Slam Dunk Is Not A Slam Dunk
Posted by Bill Baer on Friday, February 12, 2010 at 12:38 pm
The great Frank Thomas has called it quits, putting the last bit of punctuation at the end of the awe-inspiring sentence he called a career. Dubbed “The Big Hurt”, Thomas terrorized American League pitching for 19 seasons, 16 of which were spent in Chicago’s South Side with the White Sox. Now that his spikes are officially hung up, we are free to call him one of the greatest hitters baseball has ever seen.
Thomas got on base 42% of the time he stepped to the plate. Among careers in the Retrosheet era (starting in 1954), that’s sixth-best behind Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Todd Helton, Albert Pujols, and Mickey Mantle. He’s 22nd all-time in career RBI (1,704); tied for 18th in HR (521); and 25th in SLG (.555). His numbers would look even better if he hadn’t missed so much time to injury in 2001 and ‘04-05.
Since he did not take the field in 2009 in the Majors, Thomas is eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2014. It seems a foregone conclusion that he will be enshrined on the first ballot, but you never know with the BBWAA — just ask Roberto Alomar or Bert Blyleven.
Thomas was by no means the perfect baseball player. He wasn’t much of a runner or a fielder, hence why nearly 60% of his games played came in the role as a designated hitter. However, for what he was asked to do — hit — he immortalized himself among baseball’s all-time elite hitters. It will be a travesty if the BBWAA does not admit him to the Hall of Fame in 2014.
Now, why am I getting worked up about this already, you ask? I am the guy who wrote not too long ago that the Hall of Fame was “insignificant”, right?
I consider this a great opportunity for the BBWAA to fix what’s wrong — a chance for them to win back the disenfranchised, a group to which I belong. Okay, that’s a little self-centered, let me put it this way: it’s a great opportunity for the BBWAA to fix what’s wrong. Period. The case of Frank Thomas highlights a lot of the bad logic some of the writers have used and will use.
Designated Hitters
Inevitably, at least one writer will choose not to vote for Thomas because the majority of his at-bats came as a DH. It is certainly true that designated hitters provide less value to their teams than players that take the field. Tom Tango, in his positional adjustments, docks a DH 17.5 runs (or 1.75 WAR) per season.
Even debiting Thomas a prorated (based on playing time) 1.75 WAR per season, he still comes out favorably. According to Rally’s WAR Database, he was worth about 4 WAR per season on average, including his four injury shortened seasons. In his 15 full seasons, he was worth 72.5 WAR, an average of nearly 5 WAR per season.
However, the question still remains: should we debit players for being just a hitter when the argument pertains to Hall of Fame credibility? The final decision on the Big Hurt’s avenues of contribution rested with his managers and they chose to keep him off the field as much as possible. If he had been asked to, Thomas could have played a passable first base.
Sabermetric fielding values are mostly not available for his career, but he had a .991 fielding percentage and 8.7 range factor per game. Chicago Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee, often considered among the best with the glove at the position, has a career .994 fielding percentage and 8.6 RF/G. Over the past two seasons, Lee has posted his best fielding numbers with .993 and .995 fielding percentages and 8.5 RF/G’s respectively.
It seems frivolous to penalize Thomas for physical limitations he was born with (lack of agility and mobility) and decisions made by his superiors. Thomas was asked to rip the cover off the ball in his four-plus daily plate appearances, and he did exactly that.
The Steroid Era
Despite his size, Thomas has never been seriously accused of using performance-enhancing drugs. Considering how many of his contemporaries — Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, Rafael Palmeiro — have had their careers marred with public suspicion and/or admission of PED use, that is remarkable.
So, if Thomas isn’t suspected of using, what’s the problem?
The problem is the small minority of people like Paul Ladewski, columnist for Chicago’s Daily Southtown. SignonSanDiego.com reported his statement three years ago:
“I refuse to vote for any veteran who played in that period, even if he was not a suspected (steroid) user,” Ladewski wrote in an e-mail. “In my opinion, any such player had an obligation to blow the whistle in the best interests of the game, even if he did it anonymously.
“I understand this is an unusually hard-line approach, but I believe it’s my responsibility to uphold the Hall of Fame standards in whatever way necessary.”
He was the only one to cast a blank ballot in 2007. Just an aberration, right? I’m not sure about that — the 2010 Hall of Fame vote saw five blank ballots turned in. That’s not to say all were blank due to PED suspicion. However, given the mix of frequent face time given those who use the blank ballot stunt, the ever-growing list of premier players who have been caught or admitted to using PED’s, and the public backlash against them, there is a lot of incentive for writers to join the bandwagon.
Frank Thomas may be a victim of that volatile mix.
First Ballot Pedestal
One of the blank ballots left in the 2010 vote belonged to Jay Mariotti. Explaining his rationale for not even bothering to vote for Roberto Alomar — the no-brainer candidate — on ESPN’s Around the Horn, he said:
I didn’t vote for anybody in the Baseball Hall of Fame this year. You know why? To me, the first ballot is sacred. I think Roberto Alomar is an eventual Hall of Famer, not the first time. Edgar Martinez, designated hitter, eventually, but not the first time. And same goes for maybe Fred McGriff. As far as Blyleven and Dawson, if they haven’t gotten in for years and years I cannot vote them in now. Ripken, Rickey Henderson and Gwynn, they are true first ballot Hall of Famers. But I didn’t vote for anybody. Throw me out of the Baseball Writers. I don’t care.
This highlights yet another folly of the election process, and another minefield Thomas will have to tip-toe through if he is to be admitted to baseball’s Hall of Fame in 2014.
The logic has never quite been there for this rationale. Either someone is a Hall of Famer or he’s not. Jim Rice didn’t become any more of a viable candidate on the 15th ballot than he was on the first ballot. He did not play in any more games and no new statistical discoveries were found, such as that there were 75 home runs unaccounted for.
All this does is prolong the inevitable, agitate a large group of baseball fans along with the players and their families, and chip off a little more of the BBWAA’s credibility.
“Character”
Frank Thomas wasn’t exactly Mr. Rogers in the clubhouse or on the field. His most famous non-hitting memory is his feud with White Sox GM Kenny Williams in the spring of 2006. Dave Van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune recalls:
[...] Thomas had a much-publicized falling out with the team at the end of his Sox career, which culminated in general manager Ken Williams calling him “an idiot” and “selfish” in the spring of 2006.
Angry Thomas criticized club Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf on his way out, Williams said players and staff “don’t miss his attitude. We don’t miss the whining. We don’t miss it. Good riddance. See you later.”
During his prime years in Chicago, White Sox management repeatedly requested him to take a more active role in the clubhouse, a task that did not make Thomas feel comfortable as Ken Rosenthal described back in 2002.
Inevitably, these will be used against Thomas and those of us who object will be directed to the character clause:
Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and contribution to the team(s) on which the player played.
Further, I’d bet that the fact that Thomas was a mentor to the much-maligned Milton Bradley is used against him as well, by someone somewhere down the road between now and 2014.
Maybe I’m just projecting; maybe I’m not giving the BBWAA enough credit. At this point though, I just don’t trust the BBWAA to refuse to take the bait and abstain from using these logical fallacies. I would love nothing more than for the writers to collectively prove me wrong at any point between the 2011 and 2014 votes.
I really want to care about the Hall of Fame, I really do. But I look at the BBWAA’s past and present trends, I look at the baseball culture zeitgeist, and I look at the slam dunk case of Frank Thomas and I just don’t see it. I don’t trust the BBWAA and as long as those feelings persist, I will continue to deem the Hall of Fame irrelevant due to its gatekeepers.
But again, maybe that’s just me.
God I was just looking back at the first round of that draft. Other than Thomas, that was NOT a good year. In my opinion, the next best players from that round were Ben McDonald, Mo Vaughn and Chuck Knoblauch. Otherwise? YUCCCH!!! Tyler Houston, Roger Salkeld, Jeff Jackson, Donald Harris, Paul Coleman, Earl Cunningham, Kyle Abbott, Charles Johnson (not TOO stinky), Calvin Murray, Jeff Juden, Brent Mayne, Steve Hosey, Kiki Jones, Greg Blosser, Cal Eldred, Willie Greene, Eddie Zosky, Scott Bryant, Greg Gohr, Tom Goodwin, Alan Zinter and Scott Burrell plus supplemental picks Todd Jones, Jamie McAndrew, Kevin Morton and Gordon Powell. Definitely NOT one of the better drafts
As a Phillies fan, I flinched a little when you mentioned Tyler Houston.