Posted by Rob McQuown on Tuesday, February 9, 2010 at 3:29 am

Last December 3, I was invited to participate in an “Expert Mock Draft” with 11 other fantasy baseball experts. Well, it’s hit the stands and you can read USA Today’s discussion of that magazine here. The participants included:

Mock draft
Rob McQuown, Baseball Prospectus
Tom Kephart, BaseballHQ.com
Tim Heaney, KFFL.com
Ryan Hallam, Fighting chance Fantasy
Mike Podhorzer, FantasyPros911.com
Doug Anderson, RotoExperts.com
Derek Carty, The Hardball Times
Todd Zola, Mastersball.com
Jeff Erickson, RotoWire.com
Geoffrey Stein, MockDraftCentral.com
Drew Silva, RotoWorld.com

We used the Mock Draft Central (mockdraftcentral.com) site for the draft, which went smoothly. Here are my picks, along with the current “Average Draft Position” according to that site:

1. (1 overall, ADP: 1) Albert Pujols (STL)
2. (24 overall, ADP: 22) Matt Holliday (STL)
3. (25 overall, ADP: 23) Victor Martinez (BOS)
4. (48 overall, ADP: 38) Dan Haren (ARI)
5. (49 overall, ADP: 50) Nick Markakis (BAL)
6. (72 overall, ADP: 67) Carlos Lee (HOU)
7. (73 overall, ADP: 69) Chris Carpenter (STL)
8. (96 overall, ADP: 119) Carlos Gonzalez (COL)
9. (97 overall, ADP: 75) Joe Nathan (MIN)
10. (120 overall, ADP: 151) Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE)
11. (121 overall, ADP: 105) Ubaldo Jimenez (COL)
12. (144 overall, ADP: 167) Neftali Feliz (TEX)
13. (145 overall, ADP: 136) Chipper Jones (ATL)
14. (168 overall, ADP: 221) Kerry Wood (CLE)
15. (169 overall, ADP: 233) Nick Swisher (NYY)
16. (192 overall, ADP: 147) David Aardsma (SEA)
17. (193 overall, ADP: 232) Everth Cabrera (SD)
18. (216 overall, ADP: 243) Carlos Ruiz (PHI)
19. (217 overall, ADP: 258) Alcides Escobar (MIL)
20. (240 overall, ADP: 206) Carlos Gomez (MIL)
21. (241 overall, ADP: 374) Michael Brantley (CLE)
22. (264 overall, ADP: 208) Todd Helton (COL)
23. (265 overall, ADP: 363) Marc Rzepczynski (TOR)
24. (288 overall, ADP: 279) Jason Heyward (ATL)
25. (289 overall, ADP: 314) Randy Wells (CHC)

Here was the text I sent to the editor to explain my thoughts at the time:

I had the amazing fortune of getting the first overall pick, thus starting my non-speed stats out at a hefty advantage. I piled on the batting stats with Vic Martinez and Matt Holliday at the turn, and split my next 3 2-pick duets between hitter/pitcher. My two biggest mid-round gambles are Carlos Gonzalez and Neftali Feliz. Gonzalez should hit up a storm, but won’t justify an 8th-round selection if Colorado doesn’t find him 550+ AB this year. The Rangers are asking their starting pitchers to pitch deeper into games than most teams, and with Andrus flashing the leather, their defense is tight. With the expected rebound of the Texas hitters, they could again have several pitchers worth owning, but Neftali is the special one. And, yes, Kerry Wood was an overdraft, but he was great in 2008, and great in 2009 after May – Cleveland’s team woes obscured his strong recovery.

In reviewing this year’s draft crop, I decided there were numerous players with “impact speed” who were nonetheless question marks for the 2010 season due to concerns over performance and/or playing time. Meanwhile, some of the best “speed guys” had question marks, most notably Jose Reyes. And because of this, the in-draft cost of “speed guys” was pushed up. An example is that Derek Carty (who has a well-deserved stellar reputation as a fantasy manager) took Michael Bourn in the 6th round. This is a guy who hit .229/.288/.300 in 2008 before “emerging” in 2009 (still with a sub-.400 SLG). Anyway, with 2 bench spots, I planned to scoop up multiple guys who had the potential to “emerge” in 2010 with late-round picks to cover my SB situation. Risky, but what isn’t risky with “speed guys”? One pulled hammy, and your 60-steal investment is as useless as a sports car with a flat tire. I ended up succeeding in this plan, grabbing four very fast players late in the draft. Even with conservative playing time projections, the team rates to steal 170+ bases.

In shallow drafts, a huge percentage of later picks get replaced quickly, especially with just 2 bench spots, so my final few picks are really just “see how he does in spring” picks, though I am very excited about Heyward’s upside. As far as disappointments, I was kicking myself for taking a closer instead of Josh Johnson in round 9. That pick would have made the rotation much more likely to win some SP categories. The shock I had watching my top 2 queued players disappear the two picks before me in round six was reduced by the fact that taking Carlos Lee and Chris Carpenter probably won’t end up being much different than taking Derrek Lee and Javier Vazquez, all things considered. And besides, I had a first baseman already… which gets me back to where I started: having Albert Pujols is good.

Now, a couple month later, with more “hardening” of the community-think (as represented by the ADPs in the mock drafts), I have some revised comments:

- As expected, Kerry Wood seems like a huge overdraft. In fact, my 168th placement is almost the earliest on all of Mock Draft Central (162). I still think he’s a great pick around 200, as his move to the bullpen seems to have rejuvenated his “stuff”. And, sure, the Twins can hit, but who else in that division rates to rough up a closer?

- My first 2 “overdrafts” were by design, and it’s hard to determine – even in hindsight -whether I overshot. I *love* Car-Go for this year and think he may end up being a huge “profit center” even as an “overdraft”.

- Over the years, I’ve found that taking a 2-position middle infielder a round early, as I did with Asdrubal Cabrera, frees me up to “scavenge” the best middle infielders later in the draft, and/or as the season develops… in these shallow leagues (12 team mixed!) there’s always someone… regardless of position. I’ve found that’s usually worth giving up a few stats, and I don’t think it’s out of the question that Asdrubal will out-perform all the middle infielders taken below him, though there’s usually a surprise found down there.

- I personally thought that Neftali had to be the biggest stretch, but I was only 23 picks ahead of “average”, so maybe he wouldn’t have gotten back to me 24 picks later. I have no doubt that if you did an “Expected Value” analysis of players available here, he’d be below many, but my experience is that for shallow leagues, replacement value is so high, that shooting for the moon on a guy who can be elite is far more productive than playing it safe after the first few rounds.

- I’m not clear on why Michael Brantley isn’t getting more attention, to be honest. Yeah, he may fail out in spring training, but if he plays, he should be a great source of steals.

- There’s a lot of Sabermetric work out there which supports the idea that Carlos Ruiz is due for an even better year, and he was 4th in the NL in RC/G in 2009 (based mostly on the fact that he puts the ball in play a LOT, walks some, and had a ridiculously low BABIP in 2009). With him, Carlos Gonzalez, and Marc Rzepczynski, I have my two “sleeper” picks and one from another participant in a Fantasy Baseball Roundtable which FantasyPros911.com held last October.

- I don’t really think Everth and Alcides are going to out-perform their ADP’s, but – as I noted – I was trying to pick up speed late, and these two guys are both very fast. Getting “forced” into taking them sort of negated the positives of taking Asdrubal early, but Asdrubal should help with the SB too.

- Why is it that whenever I discuss Nick Swisher with New Yorkers (and even transplant Yankees fans!), I seem to be the one who thinks he’s overrated, yet in national forums such as this one and the “Media” Scoresheet league I participate in, I seem like I rate him higher than “the community”? Did his personality seduce an entire city and fanbase? Anyway, I love this pick in that slot, no matter what ADP says. Sure, he’ll hurt my average, but playing in that bandbox will help him, even if it didn’t in 2009.

- The Cubs fan in me is pretty excited that Randy Wells is so underrated. Objectively, I sort of understand it, but he’s a late convert to pitching, and if anyone with a decent pedigree had shown the sort of peripherals he did in his rookie year, there would be a lot more “buzz” about him. I tend to favor starting pitchers who didn’t start when they were young, anyway, since they’ve been spared much of the damage HS and college coaches cause.