Posted by David Golebiewski on Tuesday, February 9, 2010 at 2:08 pm

Baseball Prospectus recently released its Team Depth Charts, and you might be surprised to see which team PECOTA has right on the heels of the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central.

The Red Birds coasted to a division title last season, tallying 91 wins with a +90 run differential. However, that 2009 club benefitted from Chris Carpenter’s first healthy campaign since 2006, as well as a shockingly productive season from the since-departed Joel Pineiro. In 2010, PECOTA has the Cardinals, as currently constructed, winning 84 ball games with a +27 run differential.

Lacking a powerhouse team, the NL Central appears to be up for grabs next year. And the Cincinnati Reds are lurking in the background, capable of taking home the crown with a little luck.

PECOTA projects 82 victories for the Reds next year, with seven more runs scored than the opposition. That’s not jaw-dropping. But Cincy doesn’t have a glaring team weakness, and several players have yet to reach their respective ceilings. Here’s a look at how the Reds project at the plate, in the field and on the mound.

The Offense

I put together a chart that shows the offensive projections from PECOTA and CHONE for Cincy’s hitters. I converted the on-base and slugging percentages to Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), which is scaled to match OBP. For context, I provided the league average by position, from Beyond the Boxscore.

These numbers aren’t park-adjusted, so keep that in mind. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Great American Ballpark increased run scoring by five percent compared to a neutral stadium from 2007-2009. But even so, the Reds figure to get above-average production (relative to the position average) from five spots: catcher, first base, second base, third base and right field.

Hanigan has little pop, but he controls the zone. He and Hernandez (re-signed for one year and $3 million, with a $3.25 million option for 2011) figure to be equals at the plate, with Hanigan’s superior on-base skills compensating for fewer extra-base hits. Hanigan is the better bet overall, though (more on that later).

Votto might not reach the heights of 2009 (.419 wOBA), but he’s an excellent hitter nonetheless. Phillips’ aggressive, high-slugging ways produce decent enough numbers. The recently-inked Cabrera has rarely hit with much authority; whether he’s an upgrade over Janish depends on how you rate the two defensively. Rolen’s days of being a terror at the plate are through, but he’s still a capable batter.

It’s hard to say who will emerge from the gaggle of left field contenders. Frazier (who has played 1B, 2B, SS, 3B and LF in the minors) and Heisey are the top prospects and are close to big league-ready. Francisco has immense power, but an eyes-to-ankles strike zone and limited defensive chops suggest he needs more time on the farm. Dickerson is a quietly productive player, and Nix will try to stick around as a plus defender who’s allergic to walks. Balentien gets a sunny projection from CHONE based on his minor league slugging, but the former Mariner has struggled mightily with breaking stuff in the show.

Stubbs’ offensive upside is unclear. He rarely rapped the ball into the gaps or over the fence at Triple-A last year (.268/.353/.360), and he’s a career .269/.364/.401 minor league hitter. Stubbs works the count, but contact issues (23.4 K%) and just occasional power displays may limit his potential at the dish. Proponents of the 25 year-old point to a lanky 6-4, 205 pound frame and his more authoritative cup of coffee with the Reds last year.

Bruce is primed to break through in 2010. In a season interrupted by a wrist injury, the lefty batter seemingly slumped. But he actually increased his walk rate, lowed his K rate and bumped up his Isolated Power. An incredibly low .222 BABIP torpedoed that underlying progress.

The Defense

The Reds can really pick it. Here are 2010 UZR/150 projections for Cincy’s glove men, courtesy of Jeff Zimmerman from Beyond the Boxscore. Zimmerman took 2006-2009 Fangraphs UZR data, doing a 5/4/3/2 weighting regressed to 125 games with a slight aging factor thrown in (full details on the math here). I also included CHONE’s TotalZone projections, scaled to 150 games for all positions except for catcher. For Hanigan and Hernandez, I pro-rated their CHONE numbers to 120 games. TotalZone incorporates minor league data, so it helps us get a read on guys like Janish and Stubbs, who haven’t gotten a ton of big league playing time yet.

(Notes: for players without significant playing time in the majors, I didn’t include the 2010 projected UZR. Catcher defense isn’t currently measured on Fangraphs, so only TotalZone numbers are used for the backstops as well. Heisey’s TotalZone projection was +3 for center field, so I adjusted the projection based on the observation that center fielders playing the corner outfield generally perform 8-10 runs better in the corners than in center. Francisco has no projection, as he has scarcely played the outfield. He rates very poorly at third base.)

Hanigan separates himself from Hernandez with his plus defense. There’s plenty of disagreement between UZR and TotalZone regarding Cincy’s middle infield: Phillips rates very well in UZR, with Cabrera checking in at average. TotalZone, however, calls Phillips below average and pegs Cabrera for a horrendous total. I have a difficult time believing that O-Cab is that poor with the glove these days; he’s probably average to slightly below average. Janish probably has a Jack Wilson poster in his locker. He’s a defensive wizard with a slack bat, and it’s not especially clear that Cabrera is an upgrade. Rolen, injuries and all, is still fun to watch at the hot corner.

The Reds really shine in the outfield. Dickerson covers a lot of ground, and TotalZone really likes Heisey. Stubbs has long had a reputation for gazelle-like range in center. Bruce isn’t too shabby in right field, either.

The Pitching

Here are the CHONE and PECOTA projections for Cincinnati’s starters, plus several key relievers. CHONE’s projections use FIP, while I used PERA for the PECOTA forecasts.

(Note: Chapman has no CHONE projection. Owings’ CHONE projection is as a starter, while his PECOTA projection is as a reliever. Eric Seidman found that starters pitching in relief tend to give up about eight-tenths of a run less per nine innings, and that’s basically the difference between Owings the starter and Owings the reliever.)

None of the starters are premium, top-tier arms, but the rotation is solid across the board. Harang’s peripherals remain steady, and Arroyo is an innings sponge who is about league-average. Cueto and Bailey are also pegged for average-ish seasons, though both have the pedigree and skill to do better than that (PECOTA is betting that Cueto takes a step forward). Maloney has an excellent minor league track record and had a nice big league debut, though the fly ball-centric lefty will have to contend with the GAP. Owings needs to improve his control and stay healthy to remain relevant. Wood has a plus changeup and paints the black, though he won’t fool a ton of hitters. Odds are, we won’t see Chapman in Cincinnati this season. The bullpen figures to be sturdy enough as well.

The 2010 Cincinnati Reds likely won’t conjure up memories of Bench, Rose, Morgan and Sparky. But the team doesn’t have any fatal flaws, possessing an adequate offense, starting pitching and relief, as well as a cast of gifted defenders. At the moment, Cincinnati appears to have the talent base of a low-80’s win club, and should crack .500 for the first time since 2000. But with health, further development from Cueto and Bailey and a breakout from The Boss, the Reds could snatch their first playoff berth since 1995.