Posted by Bill Baer on Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 8:39 pm

From 2001-09 with an average payroll of only $54 million, the Minnesota Twins somehow managed to win 88 games per season on average. In those nine seasons, they earned a post-season berth on five different occasions. The Florida Marlins and Oakland Athletics are the prototypical examples of teams that achieved a lot with very little, but certainly the Twins of the 2000’s are part of that conversation as well.

In 2006, the Twins won 96 games despite Lew Ford’s 57 OPS+ in left field and Rondell White’s 66 OPS+ as a designated hitter. In 2008, following the off-season trade of pitching phenom Johan Santana to the New York Mets, the Twins won 88 games with a starting rotation of relative nobodies: Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker and veteran Livan Hernandez. There was no formula for success in Minnesota for the duration of the past decade; the Twins were just good enough on all sides to emerge near the front of the pack.

Year	Payroll ($Million)	Payroll Rank (MLB)	Offense Rank (AL)	Pitching Rank (AL)
2009	$65	24	4	8
2008	$57	25	3	8
2007	$71	18	12	4
2006	$63	19	8	2
2005	$56	20	14	5
2004	$53	19	10	1
2003	$55	18	6	6
2002	$40	27	9	6
2001	$24	30	8	7

The 2010 Twins are a new breed in a new stadium. According to Cot’s Contracts, the team will enter the season with a payroll exceeding $93 million, $22 million more than their previous payroll high of $71 million in 2007. During the off-season, instead of settling for cheap home-grown talent, VP-slash-GM Bill Smith signed veterans Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome to one-year deals, traded young center fielder Carlos Gomez to the Milwaukee Brewers for seasoned shortstop J.J. Hardy, and avoided arbitration with eight players.

These new acquisitions signal a continued focus on offense, a theme that has only been in vogue in the Twin Cities recently. From 2001-07 the team was league average or worse offensively but the recent emergence of Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, and Jason Kubel along with the steady production of Justin Morneau has allowed the Twins to slug their way to a win.

In 2010, the lineup will likely be:

1. Span, CF
2. Hardy, SS
3. Mauer, C
4. Morneau, 1B
5. Cuddyer, RF
6. Kubel/Thome, DH
7. Harris, 3B
8. Young, LF
9. Hudson, 2B

Plugging that lineup along with their OBP/SLG PECOTA projections into the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool yields a result of 5.59 runs per game. Note that the lineup analysis tool assumes that only the above nine will play, which clearly won’t happen. So ratchet down the projection as you see fit. Additionally, there is the potential for change, as Danny Valencia or Matt Tolbert could find some playing time at third base in place of Brendan Harris. Orlando Hudson could hit from a spot higher in the lineup as well.

A 5.59 RPG average would have been second-best in the AL last year behind the World Series champion New York Yankees. Add that offensive firepower (PECOTA projects 355 VORP) to a starting rotation of Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, and Carl Pavano — a fivesome that PECOTA expects to accrue over 105 VORP. One of the best closers in baseball, Joe Nathan will be nailing down ninth innings.

The Twins, however, are not without their question marks. Last year, the team posted the second-worst UZR/150 in the Majors at -7.0, trailing only the hapless New York Mets. Last season’s defensive performance was the low point of a four-year-long decline. During the off-season, two of the team’s three best defenders last year were not retained: Joe Crede (23.4 UZR/150 at third base) and Carlos Gomez (10.0 UZR/150 in center field). Despite the addition of noted glove man Orlando Hudson and his career 2.6 UZR/150 at second base, it is hard to project the Twins to perform even at the average defensively.

Minnesota is not as complete a team as the Yankees, Red Sox, or Mariners, but in a weak AL Central — a division that last year required a one-game playoff between two 87-win teams — the Twins have an easier path to the post-season. In a new home with an enlarged payroll and a booming offense, the Twins can usher in prosperity in the 2010’s. They’re not the pitch-and-catch Twins of the early 2000’s; they’re the mash-and-bash Twins of the 2010’s.