Who Still Needs a Job?
Posted by David Golebiewski on Wednesday, February 3, 2010 at 7:31 pm
For hardcore baseball fans, the off-season moves at a glacial pace. But mercifully, pitchers and catchers report in a couple of weeks. Spring training is closing in, but there are still a number of players out there looking for employment.
In late January, I took a look at what major league clubs are dishing out for a Win Above Replacement on the free agent market. While relievers seem to be getting an inordinate amount of cash for their contributions, position players and starters inking one-year deals are signing for $3.2-3.3 million per WAR.
Since that article ran, a few notable free agents have found new clubs or re-upped with their current team. Here are the $/WAR figures for those players, based on 2010 CHONE projections:
(Couple notes: I adjusted the playing time for Giambi and Winn-CHONE had them with near full-time duty. I also added the incentives money Garko would make, based on plate appearances.)
And here’s the updated chart showing what teams are paying for a win this off-season, based on player and contract type:
The numbers haven’t changed drastically. There’s a higher degree of uncertainty with the one-year players (or else they would be holding out for bigger, long-terms pacts), but GMs seem to be getting some nifty deals.
Today, let’s do a little reverse-engineering with this chart. The guys who are unsigned at this point figure to sign one-year deals. Using the $/WAR figures above, we can estimate what these free agents might get when they eventually sign on the dotted line.
Based on 2010 CHONE forecasts and the $/WAR figures for free agents inking one-year deals ($3.1 M/WAR for position players, $3.4M/WAR for starters), here are some rough guesses of what the remaining free agent hitters and starters might earn:
Free Agent Position Players
Free Agent Starting Pitchers
Again, these are just really rough guesses, based on how the market has played out thus far. I wouldn’t be surprised if several of these guys get less guaranteed cash than suggested here. Crede (back), Bedard and Wang (shoulder surgery) are serious health risks. Hudson and Lopez might get squeezed, given the paucity of GMs looking for a second baseman. The particulars of both player and team have to be taken into account.
Is it Opening Day yet?



















