Posted by Doug Thorburn on Sunday, January 31, 2010 at 6:13 pm

Let me start by saying that I used to be a real big fan of Ben Sheets. Back in 2005, I traded a boatload to acquire him mid-season in my long-running NL-only fantasy keeper league. At the time Sheets was 26-years old and coming off of a breakout season with incredible ratios, including an eye-popping K:BB of 8.25:1.

He had a string of 3 straight seasons with more than 215 innings pitched, earning the label of team workhorse, and was in the middle of another great campaign when I made the deal. The numbers made it easy to completely ignore the shaky W-L record, and I looked forward to a couple seasons of Schilling-like dominance.

That was almost five years ago, and the meantime has not been too kind to the former gold medal winner. As BDD teammate Matt Sisson points out, Sheets hasn’t pitched more than 200 innings in a season since ’04 due to a malady of injuries. His ratios stayed strong from 2005 – 2008, but various ailments kept him off the mound for a chunk of each season. The toll from heavy workloads and injury cascades culminated in elbow surgery in February of 2009, spoiling his first visit to free agency and resulting in a lost season.

(stats via www.baseball-reference.com)

Matt and BP’s Christina Kahrl have credited Billy Beane for seizing an opportunity when he signed Ben Sheets, grabbing a potentially undervalued asset than can be flipped at the trade deadline for young talent. This is a savvy observation, given that new faces in Oakland last about as long as a fresh beer in the hands of Norm Peterson, and that a mid-season deal would shave the overall cost.

Getting maximum value out of Sheets will be tougher than it was with Matt Holliday, and the road to the trade deadline could have its share of speed bumps. Command is Sheets’ calling card, but that is typically the last thing to return following elbow surgery. It could take awhile for the right-hander to find his release point, and the A’s brass will hold their collective breath every time that he takes the mound, waiting to exhale until he leaves the game with his right arm intact.

If Sheets comes up with even a minor injury, or if he experiences an extended period of growing pains in his return to the Majors, it could easily cripple his trade value. The gamble on Big Ben’s right arm only pays off if he is healthy and effective for the first 3-4 months of the season.

If Sheets can pull that off and the A’s find themselves out of contention by mid-summer, then he should make for an attractive target to a contending team. His trade value could take a hit, however, depending on the status of the performance bonuses in his contract.

Sheets is owed an additional $500k when he crosses each threshold of 165, 175, 185, and 195 innings pitched. A team that trades for the righty will find themselves in the unenviable position of acquiring a pitcher that costs $3.5 million if he flames out, but $5.5 million if he finishes out the season. That might not bring the best exchange of young talent, especially considering that Sheets’ lost year will likely disqualify him from draft pick compensation at the end of the season.

It’s impressive that Sheets was able to convert a single throwing session into an eight-figure contract, as the A’s were so impressed that the deal was reportedly on the table within an hour of the showcase. The Athletics are already giving Big Ben the royal treatment, with manager Bob Geren proclaiming him the team’s ace and Opening Day starter with the ink still drying on the contract.

Sheets will be 2nd-highest paid player on the team in 2010, with a $10 million base salary plus the other $2 million in performance bonuses. The player at the top of the team’s salary chart is Eric Chavez, one of the few players in baseball that has been more brittle than Sheets over the last five years. The A’s might be lucky if their two most-compensated employees are active for a full season between them.

The A’s have heard this song before, serving as roadies to the Rich Harden Experience for years. They passed on a reunion this off-season, opting to pay an extra 33-60% for another free agent pitcher with even more recent struggles staying on the field. It’s as if they missed having the Harden headaches around, but didn’t want to come crawling back to the pitcher they dumped a year and a half ago.

The only pitchers from this free agent class that will make more money than Sheets in 2010 are John Lackey and Andy Pettitte. For their money, the A’s are counting on the longtime Brewer to provide a veteran presence and to stabilize a young rotation. As is, the team is already counting on another 2009 absentee to be their #3 starter, and a handful of kids are battling for the fifth spot in the rotation.

The A’s missed out on Aroldis Chapman when the bidding war escalated to $30 million, and they also fell short on Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro, and even Jamey Carroll. The team had money to spend, but every player they pursued was snared by another hunter. It seemed that nobody wanted to play in the Oakland Mausoleum, and perhaps the team felt the need to over-bet the pot in order to secure their purchase.

The contract guarantees Sheets enough money to match his 2007 salary, and the performance incentives could soar high enough to make 2010 the most lucrative season of his career. He was able to secure this contract on the heels of a season lost to another arm injury, in a down economy and a buyer’s market, and by a frugal team on a tight budget.

Some might call it a good gamble, but I wouldn’t risk a quarter of my chips on a gutshot draw, especially when I’m short-stacked with a limited bankroll. I like finding bargains based on health risk, but $10-$12 million is no bargain, and Sheets represents the epitome of health-related risk.

Hey, I’m rooting for the guy, and hoping that he pulls an ‘04 Chris Carpenter season out of his hat. The A’s are certainly banking on it, and dreaming about the prospect that might fall to them on the river. Just call me skeptical.