Posted by Matt Sisson on Wednesday, January 27, 2010 at 11:07 pm

This post has nothing to do with Philadelphia, the Phillies or “It’s Always Sunny” even…  What it does have a lot to do with is the Oakland A’s and their decision to sign Ben Sheets. The name of this post — like the signing of Sheets — isn’t what it seems.  The A’s spending $10 million plus incentives on Sheets has more to do with Billy Beane getting his hands on an asset he can flip for a group of young talented players.  Beane has made a name for himself by taking advantage of inefficiencies in the system and finding value where others overlook.

The general consensus around baseball blogs and websites is that the A’s overpaid for a player who didn’t pitch at all in 2009 and was limited to an average of 150 innings in the four season prior.  Signing Sheets was definitely a big gamble for Beane and the A’s and it’s one that the Oakland front office was willing to make.  Sheets’ injuries have been discussed ad nauseam but lets take one more quick look at his time on the DL since 8/6/01:

Here are his innings pitched for the last five seasons:

2009: 0
2008: 198
2007: 141
2006: 106
2005: 157

If you factor in the 2009 season, Sheets’ average innings pitched falls to 120… hardly enough innings for someone you’re paying $10 million dollars to.  The A’s brought in Sheets with no intention of paying him the fill amount of his contract as long as Sheets can remain healthy until the trading deadline.  Excluding his off-season procedures, Sheets has DL stints in April (1), May (1), and July (1) and August (2).

The A’s came into the 2009 season after trading for Matt Holliday, with a payroll of about $62.3 million, up just over $14m from the 2008 season.  During the 2009 season Beane made the following transactions:

CHONE predicts Sheets to pitch 114 innings with a 4.11 ERA with 81 K’s while Marcel has Sheets at just 80 innings with a 3.60 ERA and 63K’s.  If Sheets can pitch into July and the A’s aren’t with in striking distance to the division lead, there is no way that Sheets doesn’t finish the season on a team that was contending at the trade deadline.