Halos Slipping Down

Posted by Bill Baer on Thursday, January 21, 2010 at 7:38 am

And not to pull your halo down
Around your neck and tug you off your cloud

There comes a point in your life where it seems like everyone else has what you want. Maybe you’re out of college, working a crummy job or single. Maybe it’s worse — maybe you dropped out, got fired, or got dumped. When you walk through the city, the only people you seem to see seare college kids having fun, wealthy business men and women in power suits, and blissfully happy couples enjoying each other’s company. It’s enough to make you disillusioned. That’s been the off-season for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim thus far.

As the confetti was swept up after New York’s celebration of yet another World Series victory, Angels fans had reason to be very optimistic. The team won 97 games during the regular season, reached the American League Championship Series against the Yankees, and the organization was setting its sights on Roy Halladay, then a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. Even as it became clear that Hallday would eventually become a Phillie, the Angels were still in on a potential Cliff Lee trade. They also showed more than a passing interest in Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman.

Yet, here we are now, just weeks away from P & C and the Angels have lost to free agency:

• The second-most valuable third baseman in the American League last year (according to FanGraphs) in Chone Figgins to the Seattle Mariners;
• Ace starter John Lackey to the Boston Red Sox;
• Gimpy DH Vladimir Guerrero to the Texas Rangers

The Angels have responded by signing:

• Gimpy DH Hideki Matsui for one year, $6 million;
• Wild Fernando Rodney for two years, $11 million;
• Joel Piniero for two years, $16 million

In essence, the Angels have swapped gimpy designated hitters, downgraded from Lackey to Piniero, lost Figgins and gained Rodney. Meanwhile, Roy Halladay went to Philadelphia, Cliff Lee went to Seattle, and Aroldis Chapman went to Cincinnati. The Angels wanted an ace pitcher and they ended up with Joel Piniero. It’s the kind of dream/reality contrast one would expect to find with the New York Mets, not the L.A. Angels.

Losing Figgins opens up third base for Brandon Wood or Maicer Izturis. That makes the soon to be 36-year-old Bobby Abreu the team’s most dangerous base-stealing threat. The lineup figures to slug more home runs and run the bases less aggressively unless Izturis defies the expectations of both stats and scouts. Furthermore, the loss of Figgins leaves the lineup thin in terms of patient hitters. Bobby Abreu drew 94 walks last year, but after him, the next-highest walks total was Torii Hunter’s 47.

Overall, the 2010 Angels look to be weaker offensively according to the projections.

Click the image below to enlarge.

Kendry Morales, Maicer Izturis, Torii Hunter, Hideki Matsui, Juan Rivera, Bobby Abreu, and Erick Aybar are all projected to perform worse in ‘10 than in ‘09. Howie Kendrick is expected to repeat what he did last year, and only catchers Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis are expected to improve.

The addition of Fernando Rodney does little to improve a bullpen that ranked 11th out of 14 American League teams in ERA last season. Angels relievers blew 19 saves, seven of which came from closer Brian Fuentes whose ERA was much too close to 4.00. All told, the Angels are spending over $25 million, or about 25% of their payroll before arbitration cases are settled, on decidedly mediocre relief pitching.

What it boils down to then, is that the Angels are relying heavily on a starting rotation that includes four pitchers that are still under the age of 30 in Scott Kazmir, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, and Jered Weaver. Including newcomer Pineiro, the CHONE projections see all five starters earning ERA’s above 4.00:

• Weaver: 4.10
• Kazmir: 4.23
• Pineiro: 4.37
• Santana: 4.53
• Saunders: 4.57

The odds are that the projections won’t nail all five of them, so I wouldn’t bet on the Angels starting rotation looking as bad as CHONE says. However, the Angels could have easily improved the rotation but GM Tony Reagins seems to be content relying on young talent with thin resumes (or, in the case of Kazmir, a durability issue).

At the moment, it is the L.A. Angels who take the cake for having baseball’s least productive off-season. They played like a 92-win team last year according to their Pythagorean W-L. As they are constructed presently, the Angels are a mid-80’s team (about 87 if you’re looking for a ballpark number) in terms of wins. Considering how significantly the Seattle Mariners have improved, the Angels couldn’t afford to downgrade.

Reagins did so willingly: he tailed off his pursuit of multiple ace pitchers and waved the white flag after attempting to retain John Lackey. He settled for Pineiro, Matsui, and Rodney, much like the aforementioned disillusioned settle for DeVry University, a job waiting tables, and a significant other with a face only a mother could love.

* The article title and opening two lines reference the song “The Noose” by A Perfect Circle. It’s a good bet that most Baseball Daily Digest readers are not as obsessed with Maynard James Keenan’s work as I am, so I figured I’d do the public a service and point it out. Angels… Halos…