Posted by Jeff Lubbers on Monday, January 18, 2010 at 3:40 am

Perhaps one of the more amusing outcomes of the early 2000’s-love affair with on-baseball percentage was tracking those who were dubbed the kings of Three True Outcomes.  These players had the highest percentage of their plate appearances result in a walk, strikeout or home run.  Their at bats were most likely to be nothing more than a battle solely between pitcher and batter without mitigating factors such as fielding abilities and the bounce of the ball getting in the way.

The Three True Outcomes leaders were for awhile slightly underappreciated.  While they do strike out a fair share they also obviously have the ability to get on base and hit for power.  These players are also likely to share a body type that would allow them to fit in seamlessly with one’s local softball beer league.  Let’s just say there are rarely any shortstops among the leaders.

Consequently just as these players’ value came to be recognized across baseball the rise of defensive metrics started to take hold across the sport, and it came as little surprise that the Three True Outcomes leaders were not at the top of the defensive leader boards.  A quick search of the archives of BDD’s parent company Baseball Prospectus finds nary an article has been exclusively written on the topic since 2005.

Nevertheless this writer still enjoys tracking the annual Three True Outcomes leaders.  Part of it could be remembering the collective giggle that would arise from the sabermetric community whenever such players were derisively called “base cloggers.”  Personally I prefer my bases empty to clogged whenever my favorite team is batting.  Who doesn’t?

In any case, baseball’s 2009 top ten at giving fielders a play off can be found below (batting title qualifiers only):

Rank	Player	PA	HR	BB	SO	3TT%
1	Mark Reynolds	662	44	76	223	51.8%
2	Carlos Pena	570	39	87	163	50.7%
3	Adam Dunn	668	38	116	177	49.6%
4	Jack Cust	612	25	93	185	49.5%
5	Russell Branyan	505	31	58	149	47.1%
6	Jason Bay	638	36	94	162	45.8%
7	Ryan Howard	703	45	75	186	43.5%
8	Brad Hawpe	588	23	79	145	42.0%
9	Jayson Werth	676	36	91	156	41.9%
10	Nick Swisher	607	29	97	126	41.5%

 

After a remarkable run in 2007-2008 in which he posted 3TT% of 58.2% (2007) and 57.0% (2008) Jack Cust found himself below the 50% threshold for the first time in a full season.  However, his 2007-2008 was remarkable enough as the next highest percentage over the same span was Ryan Howard’s 54.5% in 2007.  In fact only seven players found themselves north of 50% from 2005-2009.

Per the norm the list is full of first basemen, corner outfielders and a third baseman at the top of the list (Reynolds).  Reynolds, 25 years old, is also the only player under the age of 29 on this list, as Three True Outcomes leaders generally possess what are generally recognized as “old player skills.”

If he keeps up the walking, whiffing and slugging the way he has since 2007 Reynolds stands an excellent chance to take the career Three True Outcomes title.  Among all players in baseball history in their first three seasons (with a minimum of 50 home runs) Reynolds holds the highest Three True Outcomes percentage:

Rank	Player	PA	HR	BB	SO	3TO%	From	To	Age
1	Mark Reynolds	1689	89	177	556	48.67%	2007	2009	23-25
2	Adam Dunn	1431	72	240	370	47.66%	2001	2003	21-23
3	Ryan Howard	1094	82	143	294	47.44%	2004	2006	24-26
4	Fred McGriff	984	54	139	255	45.53%	1986	1988	22-24
5	Dave Kingman	1010	59	101	297	45.25%	1971	1973	22-24
6	Pete Incaviglia	1636	79	142	506	44.44%	1986	1988	22-24
7	Mike Schmidt	1169	55	173	289	44.23%	1972	1974	22-24
8	Reggie Jackson	1426	77	174	359	42.78%	1967	1969	21-23
9	Pat Burrell	1776	82	222	454	42.68%	2000	2002	23-25
10	Troy Glaus	1491	77	198	357	42.39%	1998	2000	21-23

 

Thanks to his 2009 performance, Adam Dunn currently holds a razor-thin lead on the career Three True Outcomes leaderboard. Among those with a minimum of 3,000 plate appearances in their career Adam Dunn holds the slightest lead over he who inspired the creation of this wonderful list.

On the other end of the list for 2009 sits Miguel Tejada, who (whatever his age actually is) single-handedly disputes the notion that aging players aren’t free-swingers: 

Rank	Player	PA	HR	BB	SO	3TO%
155	Miguel Tejada	673	14	19	48	12.0%
154	Placido Polanco	675	10	36	46	13.6%
153	Yuniesky Betancou	508	6	21	44	14.0%
152	David Eckstein	568	2	39	46	15.3%
151	Erick Aybar	556	5	30	54	16.0%
150	Orlando Cabrera	708	9	36	71	16.4%
149	Kurt Suzuki	614	15	28	59	16.6%
148	A.J. Pierzynski	535	13	24	52	16.6%
147	Ichiro Suzuki	678	11	32	71	16.8%
146	Yadier Molina	544	6	50	39	17.5%

 

And finally in looking through the leaders of the last four years I was surprised to see one name in particular climb into the top ten percent of Rob Deer emulators: Adrian Gonzalez.

Year	3TO%	Rank
2009	39.4%	16
2008	36.0%	25
2007	32.6%	37
2006	30.0%	55

 

 It appears that although Gonzalez likely will not challenge Adam Dunn or Mark Reynolds for the career mark he is setting himself up nicely for some top ten appearances in the latter half of his career.

 
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