Keeping Up with the Joneses

Posted by Bill Baer on Tuesday, December 29, 2009 at 11:20 pm

The Philadelphia Phillies traded for Roy Halladay on December 16, with the holiday season on the horizon*. The New York Mets have signed free agents Kelvim Escobar (one year, up to $3 million), Jason Bay (four years, $66 million with a vesting option), and are on the verge of signing Bengie Molina to a two-year deal as well. Both teams epitomize two types of holiday shoppers, if you ask me.

* Please recognize and applaud the restraint I showed by not making the obvious Halladay-holiday pun.

First you have the Phillies, winners of the NL East three years running, representatives of the National League in the World Series two years in a row, and 2008 World Series champions. They live comfortably and don’t consider living up to the standards of others. In other words, they won’t fight to get the last toy in stock for their kids; they just want to get in, get out, and be done with the holiday rush.

So it is no surprise that in each of the past two off-seasons, new GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has rushed out into free agency, signing aging veterans Raul Ibanez and Placido Polanco very early on. Despite initial reluctance, Amaro’s kids (the fans) eventaully warmed up to Ibanez during an MVP-caliber first half of the 2009 season. As for Polanco, it is likely that the economics of his contract allowed Amaro to pursue a trade for Roy Halladay.

Mets GM Omar Minaya

Then you have the Mets, who have been wearing concrete shoes in the NL East these last few years. GM Omar Minaya epitomizes the type of shopper who has to buy his kids just as much as you bought yours, and more. You got your kids Rock Band? Well, the store just ran out of those, but Minaya bought Rock Revolution, a cheap knock-off. You got your kids an Arnold figurine from Terminator? Omar got his kids an Arnold figurine from Jingle All the Way. That not being enough, he’ll also do some more shopping after Christmas, with discounts abound.

The Phillies got Halladay; the Mets got Escobar, Bay, and Molina. That’s called “keeping up with the Joneses“.

The Mets certainly could have been serious contenders in the bidding for free agent Matt Holliday, who is an overall better, albeit more expensive, baseball player than Jason Bay. Holliday is younger, plays much better defense, and is adept at running the bases in addition to his superior skill at the plate. Simply put, Holliday is a better overall baseball player, averaging 5.0 WAR per season to Bay’s 3.5 (without factoring in base running). Additionally, given Holliday’s skill set, it is more likely that he will decline less rapidly than a bat-only player like Bay.

However, as R.J. Anderson points out, Bay’s contract is backloaded. The Mets will enjoy Bay now and pay for him later; they’re putting him on their credit card. It is unlikely that that would have been the case with Holliday. The money the Mets save in the short-term will help them bolster their roster in other areas as the regular season draws near. Should the Mets not find any players that pique their interest, they can use the money they’ll be saving to pick up an impact player at the July 31 trading deadline.

The Mets may have purchased the inferior product, but they have put themselves in a favorable position to compete with the Phillies for the NL East crown in 2010. That’s right: they may have bought their kids Rock Revolution instead of Rock Band, but the kids will have enough fun with it to validate the purchase. And in a few months, the Mets will be able to pick up Rock Band in the bargain bin. (Is this metaphor becoming jumbled yet?)

So the Mets now have a lineup that includes Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, and Jason Bay. Barring the injury bug that paralyzed them last season, the Mets should once again find themselves in the top-half of the league in offense. Johan Santana, still among the best starting pitchers in baseball, will lead the starting rotation and is supported by a cast of mostly league-average or slightly better starters. Francisco Rodriguez is only 28 and still among the elite closers.

Still, the Mets may not be as talented a team as the rival Phillies. However, there is more than enough talent on their roster to win games at a 53% or better clip, putting them at least in the Wild Card race. In the event that they find themselves out of playoff contention before mid-September, Omar Minaya may find himself unemployed. For the health of the family, the Mets have to win in 2010. Otherwise, they will never live down the choke in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS, the late-September slides in ‘07 and ‘08, and outright failure in ‘09 and ‘10.

All of the suave Christmas shopping will mean nothing in the wake of divorce.