Pacific Perspectives: Free Agent Side Effects
Posted by Michael Street on Wednesday, December 16, 2009 at 1:31 am
While none of the Asian free agents I’ve identified earlier have yet officially signed—though Hideki Matsui has reportedly signed with the Angels and the Mets are close to signing Ryota Igarishi—there are a few peripheral effects on Asian players from some recent deals already announced.

One of those is the Mariners’ signing 3B Chone Figgins to a four-year deal, giving Seattle two speedy leadoff types when you include Ichiro Suzuki. Though either one could hit at the top of the lineup, early indications are that Ichiro will remain at leadoff, with Figgins behind him.
There are pros and cons to this scheme. Figgins is faster than Ichiro and is a better basestealer, and his .395 OBP in 2009 was better than Ichiro’s .386, even if his .363 is lower than Ichiro’s .378. That suggests that Figgins would be a better leadoff man.
Ichiro’s contact rating (.90 career) is better than Figgins’ (.85), and his superior power (.434 career SLG, .465 in 2009, vs. Figgins’ .388 career SLG, .393 in 2009) both seem to indicate that he’d be better as a #2 hitter. Still, it’s hard to argue with tradition and habit—Ichiro has always been a leadoff hitter, while 2009 was the first season where Figgins hit exclusively at the #1 spot.
Assuming that Wakamatsu sticks with this configuration (we may see these two switch places down the road, as Ichiro ages and loses footspeed further), what might this do for Ichiro? 2009 was the first season since he began playing in MLB that he failed to score at least 100 runs, breaking a streak that would have given him the record for the most consecutive seasons with 100+ runs and 200+ hits.
With Figgins behind him, he should get back on that 100-run pace. Hitting behind Ichiro most often in 2009 were Russell Branyan and Franklin Gutierrez, neither of them typical #2 hitters. Branyan is more of an all-or-nothing power hitter (.65 contact rating, .520 SLG), while Gutierrez has only middling contact (.78) and power (.425 SLG) numbers.
Branyan’s pull-hitting helped Ichiro by hitting behind him, but it was an accident of Branyan’s left-handed stance, not place-hitting. Gutierrez tends to spray singles and pull the ball when he’s going for the longball; he’s not really an effective place-hitter, particularly not for extra bases.
Those limit scoring opportunities for Ichiro; Figgins is both a switch-hitter and a spray hitter with good bat control. He’s likely to provide Ichiro the chance to take extra bases with timely hitting, important when that extra base is home plate.
Figgins is also developing patience at the plate, seeing 4+ pitches per plate appearance each of the past two seasons, with his 4.21 P/PA in 2009 a career high (among qualifying seasons). Those extra pitches not only wear out opposing pitchers, they’ll give Ichiro more time to steal bases.
In return, Ichiro could also help Figgins with double-steal opportunities when both are on the bases, and by distracting the pitcher when Figgins is at the plate. The symbiotic relationship should help both players reach new heights, and will undoubtedly help the Mariners score runs.

The other side effect has to do with Boston’s signing of John Lackey. Undoubtedly a good move for the Red Sox, this gives them a 1-2-3 of Lackey-Beckett-Lester that’s much more competitive with the Yanks’ Sabathia-Burnett-Pettitte.
It also pushes Dice-K Matsuzaka to #4 in the rotation, a spot that should ease up the physical and mental pressure on Matsuzaka. This reflects the diminished standing of the $100M Asian pitcher, who lost much of 2009 to injury and has declined in each of the past three seasons in some core ratios.
His strikeout rate has dropped and his walk and home run rates have both risen since his rookie year; 2009 saw him correct his BB/9 from 5.0 (2008’s total) to 4.6, but it’s still unacceptably high. He’s also cleared 200 IP only once since his signing.
Pushing him down to the fourth spot in the Boston rotation will hold his innings in the 150-170 range—assuming good health above him, not a guarantee with Beckett. These innings will also typically be against inferior pitching, giving him the mental space to perform at a higher level.
Boston’s on the hook to Dice-K through 2012, and it will be important to them to get as much value from him as possible. It will also be vital for Dice-K to show that he’s able to pitch at even this diminished level, not just because he wants to keep pitching past 2012; he also represents the biggest free agent acquisition among Japanese veteran arms.
As regular readers of my column know, the record for starting pitchers who come over from NPB isn’t good. Hideo Nomo’s about the only starter to have consistent success, and he came over to MLB at the ripe old age of 26. Dice-K came over at the same age, but if his collapse continues, he might be the last.















