Posted by Brian Joseph on Tuesday, December 15, 2009 at 5:40 am

For those who love what the Hot Stove season serves up, Curtis Granderson being involved in a three-way between the Tigers, Yankees and D-backs turned out just to be an appetizer to today’s blockbuster main course involving two former Cy Young winners and a boatload of prospects landing somewhere in Philadelphia, Seattle or Toronto… maybe.

We have to say maybe since the deal isn’t official yet. However, it’s a pretty easy one to analyze in baseball blog circles. You actually don’t even to know the names involved to break down the winners and losers. All you need to know are the destinations to know who won and lost. (If you really need to know the potential names involved here, MLB Trade Rumors has an excellent timeline of the information and misinformation spread across the various internet and mainstream media sites in the past 24 hours regarding the deal.)

Let’s start with the Seattle Mariners. The M’s front office is led by Jack Zduriencik which means even if this three team trade is a win-win-win, the Mariners are the biggest winners. First of all, Zduriencik is not Bill Bavasi, the former GM of the Mariners. Second, Zduriencik is widely recognized as a baseball genius in the blogosphere.

What does that mean exactly? Basically, if there are two superstars involved in the deal and one ends up in Seattle, the value of that superstar compared to the other superstar is likely slightly better. If either is a health risk because of past injuries, they got the one who is less likely to go gimpy. If prospects were involved, the youngsters shipped away by the Mariners were likely not that good anyway and the ones coming back are obviously better. If there’s a player involved that has signability issues, Mr. Z will either miraculously find a way to sign them or turn those magical compensation beans into Major League beanstalks.

Then there’s the Phillies. They have Ruben Amaro in the front office. Even though he wasn’t a superstar during his Major League playing days, he is a former baseball player which obviously knocks him down a rung in the world of baseball bloggers when it comes to knowing anything about baseball. It probably doesn’t help that he’s a second generation player, either. Add to the mess that Amaro was put into position and progressed through the Phillies front office under permanent punchline Houston Astros GM Ed Wade and the strikes are piling up next to Amaro’s name. And a few years under Pat Gillick can only do so much for his reputation.

When all of the chess pieces of this seven to 15,000 player deal goes down, the Phillies are probably going to be looked at as playing checkers. In the most generous of circles, Amaro’s Phillies will be awarded a push. In the most vicious, they’ll have sold the farm (again!) for a high reward but high risk superstar. If the club landed some prospects in the deal, they are probably never going to land in the Majors. If Amaro gave up some prospects, there’s a good chance Cooperstown can begin working on their plaques (especially if they landed in Seattle).

Since both the Mariners and Phillies are grabbing superstars, Seattle’s front office will be credited with blocking a key division rival from grabbing a coveted potential off-season acquisition. On the opposite coast, the move won’t be looked at so favorably. Even though the Phillies most hated rival has yet to grab a key puzzle piece to improve on their terrible 2009, the Mets probably weren’t interested in any of the superstars involved in the deal anyway.

Finally, there are the Blue Jays. The front office is new but the move will be made by someone replacing GM J.P. Ricciardi. Since Ricciardi and buffoonery have become synonyms thanks to some ridiculous contracts awarded by the former Jays GM to Vernon Wells and B.J. Ryan (to name a couple) and non-GM-like comments that circulated through the media.

Since the name doesn’t really matter, we’ll just call the new Blue Jays GM Un-Ricciardi. Being Ricciardi’s replacement and knowing the main piece of today’s blockbuster is Roy Halladay, we also know that the Jays December haul was much better than any haul the club could have earned near the trade deadline since this deal was made by Un-Ricciardi… not Ricciardi.

When all the dust settles and all the smoke clears, even if the names tied to today’s blockbuster are eerily similar to the deal that almost went down in July and even if the number of prospects does not equal the number rumored to be involved in the July deal, this off-season move was better than the July one. The only way this deal will not be considered more lucrative is if the timing of the deal cost the Blue Jays talent. That would be Ricciardi’s fault, too.

Let’s not forget that the Jays will net the most prospects in this deal and the blogosphere loves their prospects when evaluating deals. Combine that with who pulled the trigger on the deal and it’s easy to see how the light will shine on this side of the deal.

While we wait for the details to filter out and the official announcement to find its way via press release rather than anonymous tip, it’s okay for us to answer who won and who lost in this deal before the particulars are revealed. In short, the Mariners won, the Phillies lost and the Blue Jays did better than they would have at the July deadline or at least minimized their losses. Don’t let the fact that the biggest name in the deal (and possibly best pitcher in baseball) might end up spending close to half a decade in the City of Brotherly Love because of said deal mislead you.